Cardiff Airport - General Thread

[Jerry]

Cardiff is bidding for the Women's Champions League final in 2029. Fingers crossed Cardiff is successful.

 

[Cardiffbay]

Even if you could you probably couldn't read it for all the adverts.

I find this site is getting just as bad for adverts. Seems to be the way

 

[Jerry]

I find this site is getting just as bad for adverts. Seems to be the way

You can pay a subscription to get rid of the adverts.

 

[Seasider]

... and it is well worth the money!

 

[MrFenner]

And here we are again back at a the uber quiet Winter Wednesdays!

If it wasn’t for FR (x3) and we had already lost EDI (x1) plus been out of season for PFO (x1), we’d have a total of 3 departures/arrivals for the day - the same as the likes of HUY, MME and EXT. Wednesdays however being notoriously quiet at most regional airports - not just CWL.

Still amazes me how seasonal CWL is and something I am sure the new CEO will be looking at...

On that front, still no news from VY for S26

 

[Jerry]

And here we are again back at a the uber quiet Winter Wednesdays!

If it wasn’t for FR (x3) and we had already lost EDI (x1) plus been out of season for PFO (x1), we’d have a total of 3 departures/arrivals for the day - the same as the likes of HUY, MME and EXT. Wednesdays however being notoriously quiet at most regional airports - not just CWL.

Still amazes me how seasonal CWL is and something I am sure the new CEO will be looking at...

On that front, still no news from VY for S26

Unfortunately it's the sad consequence of the loss of Flybe and frequency on routes like Dublin, Edinburgh, Belfast and the loss of daily routes like Paris and Glasgow. The airport has failed to attract an airline to replace them like for like or to replace them as a based airline.

 

[Samdorob]

And here we are again back at a the uber quiet Winter Wednesdays!

On the plus side, TUI’s second aircraft will be in place by mid December.

 

[CAN&I]

Unfortunately it's the sad consequence of the loss of Flybe and frequency on routes like Dublin, Edinburgh, Belfast and the loss of daily routes like Paris and Glasgow. The airport has failed to attract an airline to replace them like for like or to replace them as a based airline.

Contrary to your comment, CWL has not "failed" to attract an airline to run the routes as you suggest. The core volume routes of Dublin, Belfast, Edinburgh and Paris were all picked up post Flybe, albeit with mixed success. Both Dublin and Belfast have thrived under Ryanair and Emerald. Edinburgh enjoyed some success and was growing until Loganair pulled the route recently as part of the prioritisation of its new base at Southampton. Paris was picked up by Eastern on behalf of Air France-KLM and was less successful, mostly because of Eastern. The only route that failed to return was Glasgow.

Now that Paris, Edinburgh and Glasgow are missing in action once more, who do you suggest CWL has "failed" to entice to pick these routes up? Exactly which airlines are left in the market with suitable interest, resource and even economies of scale to compete with the regional connectivity services already on offer via Bristol?

easyJet doesn't need and will never need Cardiff. Ryanair doesn't have available capacity within its RUK operation for now. Emerald also doesn't have the capacity to look beyond connecting Ireland and Northern Ireland. BA Connect isn't interested in regional connectivity outside its major volume north/south trunk routes. Blue Islands and Aurigny connect the Channel Islands. Eastern collapsed only last week. So, who's left?

Loganair are busy chasing new and potentially more lucrative markets while failing to learn the lessons of Flybe mk1 and mk2. They are not a low-cost airline either which was part of the problem why the Edinburgh service struggled to gain traction at Cardiff. Granted Paris could be picked up by Air France, Transavia or Hop as alternatives but how realistic is that idea and where would Cardiff figure amongst the vast array of options for future expansion at their disposal across Europe?

Now that the entire list has been exhausted and the barrel has been scraped there are no realistic options left. Thats hardly a failure of Cardiff Airport when there's nobody left to attract for these routes. Its a lack of supply and the wider failure of regional air connectivity outside the low cost model thats the problem.

Please forgive the direct response but the default position of fingerpointing at Cardiff Airport's perceived "failure", used far too often as a catch-all when matters don't transpire to the satisfaction of commentators without so much as a thought towards the actual issues involved, is rather tiresome.

 

[Jerry]

Contrary to your comment, CWL has not "failed" to attract an airline to run the routes as you suggest.

It has failed to attract a based airline like Flybe was. Yes Dublin is operated by Ryanair and Emerald Airlines has taken on Belfast but none of them are based. Paris was operated by Vueling and Eastern Airways but is no more and of course Loganair is dropping Edinburgh.
The airport has struggled with the connectivity side of it's route network but not the leisure side of it's route network where it has grown with Ryanair expanding and TUI expanding. Unfortunately the sad reality for CWL at the moment is that on the connectivity side of its route network there's just not the airlines available or willing to operate those routes and at the moment open a base at Cardiff. Fingers crossed in the future that'll change!

 

[CAN&I]

Sorry, but you have contradicted yourself in what you are saying.

First you say that Cardiff Airport has "has failed to attract a based airline like Flybe was" before saying "there's just not the airlines available or willing to operate those routes and at the moment open a base at Cardiff (sic)".

Which is it?

Is it a failure by Cardiff Airport or actually a sad reflection of where the industry is regards regional air connectivity outside the volume operators at the major airports?

It can't be both.

As you rightly point out, exactly WHO is available or willing to operate the routes you mention, never mind as a base? There is nobody asides Loganair and Emerald, yet one has already left to chase the next big thing and the other doesn't have the capacity to look beyond its links to Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Secondly, what does a "based airline" matter and, again labouring the point here, what are the realistic and available airline options, based or otherwise?

Cardiff Airport has secured both Dublin and Belfast as healthy and successful routes on an away basis post-pandemic. The fact that these flights are not "based" is not a bad thing. The point is irrelevant. What is relevant is that the services work and have drawn enough passengers in to warrant growth and frequency upgrades over recent years.

If anyone is expecting the envelope to be pushed to double daily services on all the routes mentioned via a based airline then they really do need to give their heads a wobble as the reality is its not going to happen any time soon until the entire market pivots enough to generate airline options and make any such investment worthwhile.

Besides, we are talking apples and pears as far as far as the Flybe situation pre-covid and the world post-covid are concerned. If everything was going so swimmingly back then 1) how come Flybe was already on its knees, cutting routes and closing its Cardiff base immediately before 2) Covid accelerated its inevitable demise? If it was barely able to survive then, why would anyone expect a similar Flybe model to work today?

Emerald is sticking to an understandable business plan. Eastern tried and failed. Loganair are all over the place thanks to ex-Flybe blood seeping through its veins. Asides Ireland-UK, the smaller regional airline model isn't working in today's market.

The only model that is working is low-cost volume and there are only two players in that market. One doesn't have the capacity, the other doesn't need Cardiff Airport. There is nobody else so, again, how is that a "failure" on Cardiff Airport's part?

 

[Jerry]

Sorry, but you have contradicted yourself in what you are saying.

Is it a failure by Cardiff Airport or actually a sad reflection of where the industry is regards regional air connectivity outside the volume operators at the major airports?

It can't be both.

No i haven't and yes both can be true at the same time. Cardiff sadly has failed to replace Flybe. There's reasons for that but it still doesn't negate the fact that Flybe haven't been replaced.

Secondly, what does a "based airline" matter and, again labouring the point here, what are the realistic and available airline options, based or otherwise?

Based airlines bring jobs and a commitment from the airline in question an investment in the airport TUI is an example. They also bring routes that potentially non based airlines can't.
Yes it's Dublin and Belfast work as non based but as Edinburgh shows it doesn't guarantee that they stay as routes and yes a base isn't a guarantee either but it shows a bigger commitment and investment.

One doesn't have the capacity,

I'd disagree about Ryanair not having the capacity to base at Cardiff. Ryanair UK may not but Ryanair can base non UK aircraft and operate just EU routes and Ryanair are continuously expanding and they could add more aircraft if they choose to the UK airline. Whether they want to or believe they can make money operating a base from Cardiff or whether they feel Cardiff is ready for a base only they'll know. Realistically Ryanair is probably CWLs only hope of the Flybe base being replaced and IF they do ever open a base at Cardiff they'll be different to Flybe in the routes they operate as they are a different beast to them.

 

[Qing4theloo]

Please forgive the direct response but the default position of fingerpointing at Cardiff Airport's perceived "failure", used far too often as a catch-all when matters don't transpire to the satisfaction of commentators without so much as a thought towards the actual issues involved, is rather tiresome.

Yeah, we get this. IMO the airport management are doing as good a job as can be expected to re-grow the airport back to where it was before the pandemic, but it's a long job.

Still, passenger figures have been encouraging so far this year, largely thanks to the efforts of Tui*, and the KLM link is still doing well even though we all wish they would base an Embraer (or even an AT76) at CWL overnight for an early morning flight.

*and, obviously, the good relationship that the airport has built with them

 

[Jerry]

(or even an AT76)

KLM don't have ATRs but it would be good to see the overnight aircraft return especially in summer when the airport has a first wave of departures between 6am and 7am.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

We need to be realistic here. Flybe had it's financial issues, much of which was compounded by poor management decisions in the years running up to it's demise. The Embraer deal was said to be a big influence in it's financial struggles.
The E195 deals that Doncaster and Cardiff did with flybe were effectively Airports chartering the flybe aircraft to run routes. The deal may well have proved well for all parties at the time, but was never a long term solution. Flybe basically had to find something for the aircraft to do, and CWL and DSA were desperate enough to go along with it.

The question remains of how successful the Flybe CWL base was. Pre-demise, I don't think many of the routes were performing well. Cork, Jersey and even Glasgow & Paris were never high performers in passenger numbers, and likely bringing in decent yields either.

Dublin, Belfast and Edinburgh have always been good performers in terms of passengers numbers, but yields unknown. Belfast has previously been double daily and Edinburgh up to 3x daily.
Yes times have change since covid but when you compare Ryanairs 6x weekly Dublin, EI's 7x weekly Belfast doing reasonably well in terms of passenger numbers, vs Loganairs poor loads and ending the route says more about the airline than the demand. Edinburgh has historically been one of CWL's best performing routes for passenger numbers. Especially when you look at EZY's BRS-EDI running at 4x, even 5x daily.

I think the reference to based Airlines is based on the fact there isn't an Airline based in EDI that could operate the route, as I don't be FR UK have an aircraft there. But it brings the same problem IF FR ever opened a base at CWL.
EI-R don't have the capacity, and it has been rumoured that they are having their own financial difficulties, although that could well just be rumour. If they did have the capacity a W pattern through EDI could work.

While EDI is a long term legacy domestic route, it's not essential to CWL in the current climate. It would likely take some big deals to get it back, and then the question needs to be asked, would it be worth it for one route?

Many of us were expecting something from FR soon, but that again doesn't appear to be happening. Given the chopping and changing that FR do on a weekly basis, i'm surprised they haven't been able to persuade FR to operate more routes, or even open a base.

 

[CAN&I]

Sorry Jerry but not all of your statements add up. Both positions of lack of options and airport failure cannot be true and, again, you are contradicting yourself.

We all know that Flybe hasn’t been replaced. Yet, critically, you cannot argue that Cardiff Airport has “failed to replace Flybe” to then go on to agree that there is nobody left in the market to replace them!

Again - how has Cardiff Airport “failed” when the options are just not there?

Further, and we’re sorry to say this, your logic around based / non-based and commitment / non-commitment are positioned to fit your points regards the need for based airlines. They are not objective points nor are they logical.

Flybe was about to CLOSE its base prior to COVID because its model was failing. If it didn’t work then, it certainly wouldn’t work today.

Having bases and securing based jobs at Cardiff is all well and good but in so far as today’s climate is concerned there would be no security or guarantee of longevity. You cannot run a sustainable business with a one-dimensional view such as that.

When the bottom of the barrel scraped and with no credible alternatives left, securing passenger growth on an away-based basis is the best or at least the “least worst” option of the few that remain.

Regards comparing Ryanair’s and Aer Lingus’ operations with Loganair’s efforts where Edinburgh was concerned, anyone with an ounce of credible knowledge would know they are/were incomparable.

Ryanair and Aer Lingus have grown their services at Cardiff over the last few years. Loganair hasn’t. They priced themselves out of contention and potential customers went elsewhere. Simply, customers responded to Ryanair and Aer Lingus. They didn’t respond to Loganair.

Its no coincidence that Loganair’s growth on the Cardiff-Edinburgh route over the last 12 months dovetailed with slightly more competitive pricing. Its also no coincidence that their business model has become equally ambitious and fluid since the ex-Flybe execs starting taking positions on the board.

Just 12 months ago their CEO sated on record to BBC Scotland News that Cardiff Airport was a key partner in future growth in the south west. Yet, one year later, and as soon as they bit off more than they could chew at Southampton, they’ve pulled the plug.

As for bases implying commitment, you only have to look as far as BMI Baby and Flybe and even as recently as Wizz Air to know that’s not necessarily true.

A lack of base doesn’t imply a lack of commitment. Ryanair and Aer Lingus have clearly demonstrated their commitment and continue to do so.

Finally, can we please stay on point here and not muddy waters.

You outlined the lack of a Flybe model, its base and its routes, specifically naming Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast, Dublin and Paris.

Belfast and Dublin are back, yet that’s not good enough because they lack the commitment of a base.

As I stated, Ryanair “UK” does NOT currently have the capacity to run Glasgow and Edinburgh. Whether they add more aircraft to RUK in the future as you suggest, who knows. At the moment there is no capacity. If there was, where would CWL figure in any route prioritisation? Further, Ryanair “not-UK” are not able to fulfil these routes, as you know.

For EU routes, asides Paris, where did this figure in your Flybe list? Not sure why you are veering away from the subject here.

In summary, again and without moving the goalposts regards your original statement, how has Cardiff Airport “failed to attract an airline to replace them (Flybe) like for like or to replace them as a based airline.” when 1) Flybe was already heading out the door and 2) you’ve admitted / agreed there is currently (barring hypothetical "coulds" and "maybes" int the future) nobody left to replace them on a like for like basis across the routes you listed?

Justifying your statement with a follow up argument that non-based airlines lack “commitment”, bases “could” “potentially” offer routes than non-bases “couldn’t”, that Ryanair “could” add more aircraft to RUK or “could” base themselves at Cardiff to operate EU routes you didn’t mention as part of your assertation of “failure” offers a lot of nicely framed hypothetical “what-ifs” and “maybes” but lacks a credible and informed justification of your original statement of “failure” within the parameters of which is was made.

If we're here to throw around words such as "failure" and make contradictory and hypothetical non-subjective statements to support individual beliefs then thats fine. Framing these as facts will understandably open the statements to challenge.

We need to be realistic here. Flybe had it's financial issues, much of which was compounded by poor management decisions in the years running up to it's demise. The Embraer deal was said to be a big influence in it's financial struggles.
The E195 deals that Doncaster and Cardiff did with flybe were effectively Airports chartering the flybe aircraft to run routes. The deal may well have proved well for all parties at the time, but was never a long term solution. Flybe basically had to find something for the aircraft to do, and CWL and DSA were desperate enough to go along with it.

The question remains of how successful the Flybe CWL base was. Pre-demise, I don't think many of the routes were performing well. Cork, Jersey and even Glasgow & Paris were never high performers in passenger numbers, and likely bringing in decent yields either.

Dublin, Belfast and Edinburgh have always been good performers in terms of passengers numbers, but yields unknown. Belfast has previously been double daily and Edinburgh up to 3x daily.
Yes times have change since covid but when you compare Ryanairs 6x weekly Dublin, EI's 7x weekly Belfast doing reasonably well in terms of passenger numbers, vs Loganairs poor loads and ending the route says more about the airline than the demand. Edinburgh has historically been one of CWL's best performing routes for passenger numbers. Especially when you look at EZY's BRS-EDI running at 4x, even 5x daily.

I think the reference to based Airlines is based on the fact there isn't an Airline based in EDI that could operate the route, as I don't be FR UK have an aircraft there. But it brings the same problem IF FR ever opened a base at CWL.
EI-R don't have the capacity, and it has been rumoured that they are having their own financial difficulties, although that could well just be rumour. If they did have the capacity a W pattern through EDI could work.

While EDI is a long term legacy domestic route, it's not essential to CWL in the current climate. It would likely take some big deals to get it back, and then the question needs to be asked, would it be worth it for one route?

Many of us were expecting something from FR soon, but that again doesn't appear to be happening. Given the chopping and changing that FR do on a weekly basis, i'm surprised they haven't been able to persuade FR to operate more routes, or even open a base.

Very well put. Couldn't agree more. People get so misty-eyed over Flybe yet it was based on a lot of smoke and mirrors and they were already part way out the door before it went pear-shaped. The sad thing is the very same people are now gathering at Loganair having apparantly learned precisely nothing. As for FR, yes they are Cardiff's immediate future but whereare they on Ryanair's vast list of priorities?

Yeah, we get this. IMO the airport management are doing as good a job as can be expected to re-grow the airport back to where it was before the pandemic, but it's a long job.

Still, passenger figures have been encouraging so far this year, largely thanks to the efforts of Tui*, and the KLM link is still doing well even though we all wish they would base an Embraer (or even an AT76) at CWL overnight for an early morning flight.

*and, obviously, the good relationship that the airport has built with them

Another great post. The airport is doing what it can where it can under the circumstances. Of course we all want more but we need to be realistic and at least understand the mountian it has to climb against an ever shrinking and ever competitive market.

 

[Jerry]

While EDI is a long term legacy domestic route, it's not essential to CWL in the current climate.

I think it depends on how you see the airport. Passenger numbers wise it isn't TUI and Ryanair will replace it many times over but I do think Wales and Scotland not having a direct air link is a blow. Whether we'll see the route return in the future is anyone's guess.

 

[CAN&I]

Loganair’s Cardiff-Edinburgh route accounted for 1.8% of Cardiff Airport’s total passengers in 2024, 1.9% over the rolling year to August 2026.

In comparison, Aer Lingus’ Cardiff to Belfast City route accounted for 4.6% and 4.7%, with Ryanair’s Cardiff to Dublin service accounting for 7.1% and 9.3% respectively.

While the absence of an air link between the capital cities of Wales and Scotland may not be great, possibly even somewhat embarrassing, the route’s withdrawal is certainly not a blow.

Anecdotally, CAN&I as an organisation has yet to hear a single voice outside the Senedd, the media in Wales, dedicated CWL forums or social media “fan” groups lamenting the loss of the service.

So, let’s be realistic and call the situation out for what it is.

The overwhelming majority of potential customers in the south Wales market are now very much used to travelling to Bristol or Birmingham airports in order to fly to Scotland at a convenient time and at a reasonable price point. Loganair’s service just didn’t resonate with enough customers on both accounts as opposed to airlines providing other routes at Cardiff.

Yes, it would be nice to see the route return one day, preferably in low-cost form, but in reality it really isn’t the end of the world.

 

[Jerry]

Yes, it would be nice to see the route return one day, preferably in low-cost form, but in reality it really isn’t the end of the world.

Never said it was the end of the world just that losing the route was a blow especially to Welsh connectivity.

CAN&I as an organisation

Who is CAN&I?

 

[CAN&I]

Jerry - we never said you did. We were talking in general terms. In our opinion and in the grand scheme of things, its not the end of the world in so far as Cardiff Airport or Welsh connectivity are concerned for the reasons we've given. Again, just our opinion.

However, we would like to agree to disagree that the loss of the route amounts to a "blow" to either the Welsh economy or the Cardiff Airport. This is possibly a little over dramatic, particularly given the negligible benefit the route offered towards both under the most recent period of guardianship under Loganair.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Never said it was the end of the world just that losing the route was a blow especially to Welsh connectivity.


Who is CAN&I?

I think it's fairly obvious it's not a 14 year old born on New Years Day. More like someone that frequents other forums and bombards peoples with information, facts and knowledge that no-one else can excel..... apparently

Hopefully this forum won't head in the same direction as others.