Manchester Airport - General Thread

[Carl W]

Not so much about the airport, but goes some way to explaining the new Chinese air routes.
Chinese property investors bet on the Northern Powerhouse
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36086012

 

[Dobbo]

Some stats comparing 2006 with 2016. Courtesy of Scottie Dog of SSC. I hope the formatting works.

A comparison of passengers to long-haul destinations in 2006 and 2016. Only cities that had passengers in both periods are shown.

Destination.............2006.....................2016
Barbados..............15378...................20940
Toronto..................4022.....................2389
Cunagua.................2741....................3128
Holguin..................2675.....................2786
Varadero................3864.....................2466
Puerto Plata............10994...................2380
Punta Cana..............2944....................7542
Goa.......................16548...................3745
Montego Bay............6077....................7102
Cancun...................6448....................16088
Islamabad...............13467..................13141
Karachi...................6306......................116
Lahore....................4136....................4301
Doha......................10693..................28072
Singapore................15071..................9605
St Lucia...................1425....................871
Abu Dhabi.................840....................43305
Dubai......................34706..................88261
Atlanta....................11101..................12360
Las Vegas.................2988....................6668
Miami......................5538....................344
New York JFK............10616..................17420
New York Newark.......14516..................8737
Orlando....................20966..................28471
Philadelphia...............13844..................10810
Sanford....................16500.....................888

All figures are taken from the CAA provisional statistics for March 2016.

 

[jfy1999]

Thanks for the statistics Dobbo. Very interesting to see the rise and decline of different destinations, especially leisure. Was Kuala Lumpur served back in those days?

 

[Dobbo]

Thanks, but credit for the stats goes to Scottie Dog. I am merely facilitating!

I'm not sure what the history of MH serving KUL from MAN was. As things stand they have an agreement with Emirates such that their only route to Europe is LHR. They have dropped AMS and CDG.

Regrettably I think they are a long shot.

Others, maybe not so much over the next 5 years if the airport continues to grow.

 

[Dobbo]

Interesting prediction from Emirates as regards UK aviation.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cancelled-all-domestic-flights-in-the-uk-k79bmjrmt

Not sure if it is abailable on an open source but the rump is there.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

He is probably right concerning connecting Shuttle flights to LHR from cities connected directly to HS2 (MAN, LBA). However, IIRC direct access to LHR isn't part of the current HS2 plan. Meanwhile, many UK domestic routes will continue as before. Not just over-water ones such as those serving Belfast, but also sectors such as NQY-MAN, INV-BHX etc where surface alternatives are not so compelling.

In fairness to Mr Berryman, I suspect the sensationalised headline is the invention of the journalist. LB's remarks do not appear to suggest that ALL domestic flights will be withdrawn.

 

[Aceshigh]

Well if they do they won't be going from the Manchester Airport station. It looks as though it been canned. Just seen this on another thread.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stations-and-links-at-risk-in-hs2-wreck-b65g0w90n

Really is outrageous that they are pouring billions into South East and yet spend nowt up here. There will be an almighty row over this.

 

[Dobbo]

The HS2 station at MAN was always subject to third party funding and, as such, was never going to come out of the HS2 budget.

 

[User001]

The article is full of inaccuracies.

The HS2 station at MAN was always proposed to be funded by MAG, so, how can the government 'cut' a cost that was never theirs to bear anyway?

 

[Dobbo]

He is probably right concerning connecting Shuttle flights to LHR from cities connected directly to HS2 (MAN, LBA). However, IIRC direct access to LHR isn't part of the current HS2 plan. Meanwhile, many UK domestic routes will continue as before. Not just over-water ones such as those serving Belfast, but also sectors such as NQY-MAN, INV-BHX etc where surface alternatives are not so compelling.

In fairness to Mr Berryman, I suspect the sensationalised headline is the invention of the journalist. LB's remarks do not appear to suggest that ALL domestic flights will be withdrawn.

I think there is opportunity for MAN and Flybe to copy the BA shuttle model at LHR to feed the long haul operators.

Feed from places that don't have a Heathrow shuttle or who may loose one in the future - Newquay, Norwich, Southend, Inverness, Belfast and further afield in Ireland and other parts of Europe.

I agree that the Heathrow shuttle model is likely to be harder for BA to keep up as slots at LHR become more restricted. Maybe that is the future?

 

[Dobbo]

April stats reported elsewhere as follows:

1.9 million pax in April, up 11%. Rolling number is 23.7 million.


To me this seems very strong, on course to break 24 million in the next month or two, and still in the mix to break 25 million by the end of the calendar year.

 

[Land23R]

What's the source for the April results? It was reported on BBC North West News but I can't see it yet in the M.E.N.
the Business Desk or MAN web site for example.

Assuming it's right, 11% is the same as March.

 

[Dobbo]

Land23R

Here you go.

https://bdaily.co.uk/industrials/11...anchester-airport/?utm_content=20160511122301

 

[Land23R]

Many thanks Dobbo. I was beginning to wonder if there was some confusion over the March figures.
A very good result. Although the school holidays fell in April, Easter itself was in March.
Last year, Easter Sunday was 5th April so some of the boost in pax then may have been in March I guess if the school holidays started the previous week.

 

[User001]

I have no doubt whatsoever that we will get not only TO, but past 25m this year.

We have had several new routes start this month, more to come over the year, capacity and frequency increases and the extra bums on seats on historic flights too.

It would take one hell of a bad situation to change the forward momentum.

I predict 25.4 million rolling by end of 2016, and, given we already have new routes for next summer, would not be at all surprised to see 27.5-28 million for 2017, again, barring any mammoth disasters.

The 25m milestone will be a great one, as it will really help us get on the global scale as 'one of the big boys'.

Just think, 28m is entirely possible next year, that's bonkers for a regional city!

 

[Dobbo]

What schedules for summer 2017 are we waiting on?

Also - I'm fascinated by the possible historic announcements over the next couple of years - any clues?

 

[User001]

Well the winter period is when full service carriers normally announce their summer programme.

In terms of historic announcements, I did mean 'past 24 months', was in a rush so typed wrong.

In terms of what's to come for 2017:

Ryanair and Easyjet need to announce their programmes, and given past trends, would be a shock if no new routes or aircraft from them.

We have had Thomson and Thomas Cook announce their programmes, but, we could still see more long haul from TCX if they can get an aircraft.

Norwegian and Vueling still to put anything up.

Virgin have SFO/BOS and increased MCO/BGI, and we are still awaiting to see if they follow through with the last 4 days of utilisation on the A330.

Pretty much every other long haul carrier and European legacy also need to announce their programmes, and let's face it, with all of that to go, the possibilities are endless.

 

[Dobbo]

Fair - the announcement of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Beijing and Shanghai are certainly game changers. It would be good to see how these routes develop over the next couple of years. I'd hope they are all daily by that point.

Loads that can happen then, do you see any new airlines entering the MAN market (other than Air China and China Southern that we have touched in elsewhere) or more new services from existing providers?

On the short haul, more Eastern European carriers would be good. On the long haul, who knows who might come next...

 

[Dobbo]

When you think about LA, San Fran, Beijing and Shanghai bring announced and starting in relatively quick succession it is extraordinary. These are serious blue ribbon type routes and it is difficult to see what could top that.

The only ones that spring to mind that could match that are reasonable over the next two years are:

India - a mainline carrier to BOM/DEL.
Tokyo - JAL or ANA
Dallas - AA
Seoul - KAL
West coast - year round competition on both routes from TCX and VS.

 

[Aceshigh]

Are we likely to see EgyptAir back?
DESPITE....the the problems over there and zero publicity remarkably it still gained something like a 60% load factor.

Whilst it us still only 1 bombing away from further turmoil I'm not sure it's actually any worse than anywhere else ?

It made me think whether the airport would re approach some airlines that used to operate here. Alia ,Air Canada mainline (They seem besotted with Heathrow), Air India of course, Uzbekistan and as Iran opens up Tehran ?

Also would Sr Lanka be an option
Fell away as a tourist destination in years but pretty calm now.