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Bristol Airport - General Thread

Marko1

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I don't think we should worry about Thomas cook. They have issued a profit warning but they are still making big profits all the same plus they are one of europes mega IT operators .

As for EasyJet sadly we are not privy to what they have agreed with the airport but I just cannot see how growth can be based primarily on that one operator. Given that you cannot rely on Ryanair to bother releasing Bergerac until very very late they cannot be counted upon for growth long term either. As for BMI I'm not exactly sure what they are doing but they seem to have a niche carved out just for them but they are not exactly gonna bring millions to the airport. And then finally Tui and Tcx maybe in due course could bring more based units ( there's a case for 5 short haul tui and 4 short haul tcx now already ) . So it falls to easyJet or a new operator to come in. And there's only one available .....
 

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TheLocalYokel

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Thomas Cook's shares were down 28% today and are down over 50% from this time last year. Nevertheless, some commentators believe they are now undervalued and that the company is on the right track, albeit the shares might be volatile for a while yet.

I mentioned Thomas Cook really as a 'for instance'. A few years ago probably few people expected Monarch or Air Berlin to go to the wall.

I suppose you are alluding to Jet2 with your 'only one available' comment and they would really be closer competitors with Thomas Cook and TUI than to easyJet. For the most part they would be providing more capacity on many of the holiday routes already served and in many cases their presence would be likely to drive down the overall yield across all competing airlines on those routes.

It was a great shame when Wizz axed three of their four routes. Kosice was the only disappointing one for loads, and they certainly were nowhere near dire; in fact, excellent in peak summer. I note that Wizz has now closed its Kosice base and only serves the airport from Luton wth a LTN-based aircraft so it seems that Kosice was an unsatisfactory airport for most of the Wizz routes. Sofia and Warsaw Chopin saw very high loads even with Chopin competing with Ryanair's Modlin, also a recipient of very high loads that didn't suffer when Wizz started Chopin.

So it must have been the yields. If an airline is regularly seeing over 90% load factors on a route year round but axes the route because of yields, as an outsider I sometimes wonder whether an all-round fare increase would not bring up the yield to satisfactory levels without losing many passengers.

I'm not hearing even whispers of rumours about new airlines or increased presence of existing carriers (other than easyJet's stated extra 200,000 passengers next year). As things stand BRS is going to struggle to get to 9 mppa at the end of 2019, but that stagnant look has been there before and a rabbit is suddenly pulled from the hat. I hope it's not a March hare this time.
 

Marko1

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It's such a shame regarding Wizz. When they first started services from Bristol a number of commentators on the other site said that they would expand quickly and they did rising to the 4 routes . However it didn't last and sadly only one route remains and despite good loads who knows whether that will last long term. There's much opportunity in central and Eastern Europe that is untapped and unserved but sadly no takers.

As for jet2 it's not necessarily for competition sake that I advocate them coming to Bristol but to give the punter choice of airline , timings and routes and crucially to give optimum growth.

Only one potential is that Ryanair suddenly expand. They just added 2 more jets at Luton after stagnant efforts there so is that a possibility. Just noticed they have added a Friday Venice service next summer rising to 5 weekly
 

superking

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When you say Easy jet has or could have BRS over a barrel you could almost say the same thing happening or could happen at Gatwick. Its always diffacult for any airport as do we work with the airline.This practice seems to be going on with a lot of airports around the globe.If a airport wants to expand it has to go along with the airlines or growth will stagnate.Most of the growth comes from the LCC airlines. A sign of the times.
 

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Some of the old guard seem to have left or are about to. The name of the previous Finance Director escapes me but he is no longer shown on the airport website and Paul Davies the Operations Director is soon to retire, as the above link tells us.

The senior team will therefore be:

Dave Lees, Chief Executive Officer
Graeme Gamble, Chief Operating Officer
Jason Clark, Chief Financial Officer
Simon Preece, Commercial Director
Andrew Goodenough, Development Director
Nigel Scott, Business Development Director
Simon Earles, Planning and Sustainability Director
Debbie Hartshorn, People Director

The majority of this team are relative newcomers to the airport. Let's hope they can maintain the strong performance of their predecessors going back over many years.
 

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TheLocalYokel

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superking

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Some of the old guard seem to have left or are about to. The name of the previous Finance Director escapes me but he is no longer shown on the airport website and Paul Davies the Operations Director is soon to retire, as the above link tells us.

The senior team will therefore be:

Dave Lees, Chief Executive Officer
Graeme Gamble, Chief Operating Officer
Jason Clark, Chief Financial Officer
Simon Preece, Commercial Director
Andrew Goodenough, Development Director
Nigel Scott, Business Development Director
Simon Earles, Planning and Sustainability Director
Debbie Hartshorn, People Director

The majority of this team are relative newcomers to the airport. Let's hope they can maintain the strong performance of their predecessors going back over many years.
They have very hard acts to follow. Some of the management staff they have brought in have been very good at what they do. Lets hope the new ones coming in are as good.
 

TheLocalYokel

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There is some discussion on other BRS threads in F4A about a slowdown in the upward momentum of the airport seen over so many years, with the last three getting the annual passenger figures up by nearly two million with this year likely to add at least another 400,000 taking the total to around 8.6 million.

Next year is currently looking as something of a consolidation year although there might be another 200,000 passengers passing through. After that there is nothing obvious in the pipeline to lift the numbers to the 10 million projected by the airport by 2021.

Over the past eight years something like £160 million has been pumped into airport projects, mainly infrastructure, with a similar figure measured at today's values spent on infrastructure from 1997. Currently there is more infrastructure development going ahead with the multi-storey car park being increased in size, two new aircraft stands and a linking taxiway being constructed next to the old terminal building, together with work on the south side including a new fire staion and a new admin building. The airport's plans for the coming years involve another huge spend to increase the facility to accommodate 12 mppa by 2025 and, potentially, 20 mppa by the 2040s.

This sort of expenditure can surely only be justified if the airport is confident that its future plans will increase passenger numbers to the degree that it anticipates - infrastructure development over the last decade occurred incrementally as numbers of flights and passengers warranted. I anticipate the decades to come will follow a similar pattern.

The airport was extremely accurate in its 2006 master plan overall passenger number projections with, for example, a 2020 figure of 9.270 million (the recession and afterwards caused it to drop below its forecast for a few years but it's now caught up). As with shares, past performance is no guarantee of future performance and none of the senior management team that was in place in 2005-2006 at the time of the previous master plan preparation are now at the airport. Nevertheless, the current team's experience elsewhere suggests it is highly capable, although possibly a touch more corporate in approach than was perhaps the case a decade or more ago.

The airport company must be carrying a sizeable debt in securing the money already expended with much more to be spent in the future. The massive amelioration must have increased the value of its major asset to a very large degree and it sees its pre-tax profits rising year after year. This means that the debt ought to be entirely manageable.

The latest figures I can find are those for 2016 when turnover was £89.9 million with a pre-tax profit of £35.9 million. I've not read the detailed accounts but a draft submission from the Parish Councils Airport Association in response to the first part of the airport's new master plan consultation - inevitably a negative submission as it doesn't want the airport to expand - suggested that turnover was made up primarily of £34 million aeronautical income, £27 million car parking revenue and £26 million concession revenue. I can't confirm this break-down but if true it shows how much an airport like BRS is reliant on its non-aeronautical revenue streams.
 

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BRS press release.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/ab...ia-centre/2018/10/global-parliament-of-mayors

A surfeit of mayors.

Airport welcomes mayors from across the world ahead of city summit
Created: 20th Oct 2018

Bristol Airport is set to welcome mayors representing cities from across the world this weekend (20-21 October) as delegates arrive for the Global Parliament of Mayors Annual Summit which is being held in Bristol next week.

Mayors from six continents are attending the high-profile event which brings together city leaders to share expertise, experience and best practice in tackling global challenges such as migration, urban security and health.

Mayors from as far afield as Cape Town (South Africa), Kingston (Jamaica) and Monrovia (Liberia) will be making use of the Airport’s excellent connections with major international hubs such as Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin and Frankfurt, while others will be flying direct flights from around the UK and Europe.

Nigel Scott, Business Development Direct, at Bristol Airport, said:

“The Global Parliament of Mayors is a great opportunity to present Bristol to an international audience. Connectivity is key for all successful international cities, so we are delighted to see so many mayors making use of the extensive route network available at Bristol Airport. We look forward to providing a warm welcome to all delegates and creating a positive first impression of the West of England.”

Marvin Rees, Mayor of Bristol, added:

“It is great that we will be welcoming so many city leaders from around the world to Bristol for this year’s summit. It is clear that the challenges we face in the world today cannot be solved by national governments working alone. The world needs cities working together alongside and supporting national governments and the world bodies to deliver genuine solutions. The Bristol summit will focus on these solutions.”

Bristol Airport is working with Bristol City Council to support the Global Parliament of Mayors Annual Summit.
 

TheLocalYokel

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An extract from the linked report from the previous post states:

To complement its biggest ever programme of flights and holidays from airline and tour operator partners, the airport is forecasting more than 3.5 million passengers to pass through the terminal between the beginning of November and the end of march, making 2018/19 a record winter.

Can that be right??!!

In the previous November-March period (2017/2018) the airport handled 2,564,183 passengers. A figure of 3.5 million for the coming winter would represent an increase of 936,000 passengers (over 187,000 extra per month on average), or put another away an increase of 36.5%.

That would be a phenomenal increase in winter, or at any time for that matter. If the airport gets anywhere near 3.5 million in the winter months it might be an indication as to how the projected 10 mppa will be achieved by 2021 given that the huge increase in passenger numbers in recent summers appears to be running out of steam to an extent. But 3.5 million? Is there a smiley for head scratching?
 

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BRS has now issued a press release on the coming winter that includes the reference to 3.5 million extra passengers between November and March, but also mentions another figure that adds to the confusion, viz.

More than 3.5 million passengers are expected to pass through the terminal between the beginning of November and the end of March, making 2018/19 a record winter. Behind this estimated 10 per cent increase in winter travel is the introduction of more year-round routes by airlines including easyJet and Ryanair.

Last winter saw the following monthly passenger figures (CAA):

November 17 488,572
December 17 517,164
January 18 486,205
February 18 517,201
March 18 555,041
Total 2,564,183

10% of the total figure for last winter would give an additional 256,418 passengers, taking the total for the coming November-March period to around 2,820,000 which is nowhere near the 'more than 3.5 million' mentioned in the airport press release.

An additional 250,000 over the five winter months would still be very impressive, giving an average of an extra 50,000 passengers per month.

I'm still fascinated as to how the airport came up with 3.5 million.

Incidentally, there is a mention of a new ski service to Andorra. I'd read that Lleida was back in the ski season but can't remember reading about Andorra. Last time Lleida featured the carrier was Flybe for the ski tourist company involved.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/ab...media-centre/2018/10/even-better-from-bristol


Bristol Airport launches biggest ever winter programme
Created: 18th Oct 2018

Bristol Airport launches a multimedia marketing campaign next week (Monday 22 October) to highlight its biggest ever winter programme.


Under the strapline ‘Even Better from Bristol’, the campaign focuses on the Airport's growing appeal for passengers across the South West and South Wales. It showcases a diverse range of ‘travel types’ who can now find a destination to suit their taste from the Airport’s network of 126 direct flights.

More than 3.5 million passengers are expected to pass through the terminal between the beginning of November and the end of March, making 2018/19 a record winter. Behind this estimated 10 per cent increase in winter travel is the introduction of more year-round routes by airlines including easyJet and Ryanair. Destinations now served continuously include Catania, Naples, Limoges, Knock, Valencia and Nice.

A resurgence in popularity of Egypt and Tunisia has resulted in more flights from Bristol to both countries this winter, while winter sports enthusiasts can take advantage of a new service to Andorra with ski specialist, Neilson. TUI will be flying cruise customers to start voyages from Jamaica and Barbados, and children of all ages are also well catered for, with a range of Lapland trips available throughout December and January.

Nigel Scott, Business Development Director at Bristol Airport, said:

“It is even better from Bristol this winter, thanks to the biggest ever programme of flights and holidays from our airline and tour operator partners. Passengers will also see our continued investment in the terminal, with some exciting changes to the range of food and drink on offer from January.”

Forecast to serve more than 8.5 million passengers this year, Bristol is the ninth busiest airport in the UK, and England’s third largest regional airport.

A new Master Plan is currently being prepared and will set out potential developments required to handle up to 20 million passengers per annum from the existing runway by the mid-2040s. The first phase of growth will be facilitated through the submission of a planning application to North Somerset Council later this year.

In June, Bristol Airport was named ‘Best Airport in Europe’ in the 5-10 million passengers category at the annual awards dinner held by European airports association, ACI Europe. Last month the Airport was voted best in the UK by the travel trade in the annual TTG Awards.
 

alphagolf

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Incidentally, there is a mention of a new ski service to Andorra. I'd read that Lleida was back in the ski season but can't remember reading about Andorra. Last time Lleida featured the carrier was Flybe for the ski tourist company involved.
Its flyBe again operating on a Sunday on behalf of Neilson Ski arr BRS 1115, dep BRS 1200
 

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