It looks like the numbers were calculated before the loss of Thomas Cook. As it says they are expected to be at 10 million passengers by 2021 and with TCX there that would've been a reasonable target.
 
I agree with Jerry. Although the consultants' report was submitted in December (after Thomas Cook ceased to exist) it's based on the numbers that BRS submitted with its planning application.

Incidentally Marko, thanks for linking the document - it made for fascinating reading.

I found the reasons for wanting the Level 3 coordination year-round absorbing. I could understand the reason if the airport is allowed to expand to 12 mppa. That would include removing seasonality from the night movement restrictions and much of the current grossly under-used winter limit would effectively be transferred to the over-used summer limit. That would then bring a need for careful husbandry of these movements year-round.

However, even if the airport is constrained at 10 mppa it seems that slot coordination will be needed year-round with the airport's terminal and aircraft stand capacities operating at or very close to capacity. Slot controls will be needed to manage growth within acceptable levels of congestion and delay. The runway capacity is not yet a primary constraint but slot control will enable maximum runway throughput to be managed progressively in line with demand.

The submission states that overall stand capacity is just sufficient to meet current levels of demand and that the two Code C (737/320) stands opening in late summer 2020 are just sufficient to meet short-term growth.

This does suggest to me that for the moment capacity constraints mean that growth is likely to be restricted to the easyJet model of one or two extra aircraft a year. Something like a Jet2 arrival in, say, a four-aircraft base seems too much for the capacity of various parts of the infrastructure at present. If the 12 mppa planning application, which addresses putting in more infrastructure to cope with 12 mppa (and presumably the extra aircraft associated with it), was eventually approved the situation would change. That's my reading anyway, from someone who has no aviation or airport qualifications or experience.
 
With the loss of Thomas cook (3 aircraft) plus a gain of 2 by tui and a gain of 1 by easyjet , wouldn’t there be 4 new stands by end of summer 2020 though ? Two new ones already in use plus 2 more ?
 
With the loss of Thomas cook (3 aircraft) plus a gain of 2 by tui and a gain of 1 by easyjet , wouldn’t there be 4 new stands by end of summer 2020 though ? Two new ones already in use plus 2 more ?
Apparently not according to Mott MacDonald's submission.

They say there are 34 stands at BRS: 1 Code B (eg E145); 32 Code C (eg B737/A320); 1 Code E (eg B787). At peak times in summer 2019 33 of the stands were needed (for the overnight period) which took up all the Code C stands and the Code E. This obviously included the three TCX aircraft which in practice have been replaced by two more TUI narrow bodies for summer 2020 plus one easyJet. In addition the fully-based B787 for summer 2020 means that with its additional short-haul commitments it too is likely to be on stand overnight more than it was in 2019.

Add to the mix that two of the stands are not allowed engine running between 2300 and 0700 so cannot be used for arrivals/departures during these times, and two more are not allowed engine running at any time with aircraft only being towed on or off.

I always think back to summer 2013 in this context when the airport and Ryanair reportedly fell out over charges and Ryanair reduced the base from five to two aircraft. However, they didn't reduce services re the previous summer (slightly increased them actually) but operated a lot of routes with aircraft from bases at the 'other end' of the journeys. This must have had the effect of freeing up overnight stands and also reduced the number in the first batch of departures each day, part of which is in the night-time movement restriction period. Some evenings there were up to six Ryanair arrivals/departures in the mid-evening period which is usually relatively quiet at BRS.

With all this hassle plus the airport's physical, locational, surface connectivity and weather disadvantages it must still be the case that airlines find it worthwhile to operate from BRS.
 
Last edited:
With the loss of Thomas cook (3 aircraft) plus a gain of 2 by tui and a gain of 1 by easyjet , wouldn’t there be 4 new stands by end of summer 2020 though ? Two new ones already in use plus 2 more ?
Re my previous post in response to yours, further consideration makes me wonder how Mott MacDonald came up with the stand occupancy figures for peak summer 2019 it quoted in its submission on behalf of Bristol Airport.

To recap MM said there are 34 stands at BRS: 1 Code B (eg E145); 32 Code C (eg B737/A320); 1 Code E (eg B787). At peak times in summer 2019 33 of the stands were needed (for the overnight period) which took up all the Code C stands and the Code E.

Last summer at peak there were 17 based easyJet aircraft, 5 TUI (including the part-based B787), 4 Ryanair and 3 Thomas Cook. In addiiton KLM overnighted one aircraft. I don't think the Brussels Airlines aircraft overnighted at BRS in its first two months of operation from September. That makes a total of 31, or 32 if Brussels Airlines did overnight.

In peak summer 2020 as things stand the based aircraft will be 18 easyJet, 7 TUI (including a fulltime B787) and 4 Ryanair, together with KLM and Brussels Airlines overnighting, although the latter takes a break in July and August. That's a total of 31 likely to overnight at peak, 30 if we discount Brussels Airlines that will be absent for some of the peak summer period.

31 is less than the 33-stand provision able to accept B737/A320-type aircraft which presumably will rise to 35 at the end of the summer with the two new stands mentioned by Mott MacDonald.

I seem to have come to the same conclusion as you, ie four potentially unused stands at the end of summer 2020.

Loganair's Airbus shuttle to Toulouse and Hawarden operates from the South Side and uses stands there so they can't have been counted.
 
Which could suggest room for a new airline maybe ?

One point to make which I do not think has been mentioned yet is that tui are currently planning to base two 787s over the weekends of summer 2021 - one for short haul and one long haul so I’m not sure whether that may change the equation.

finally once the old terminal goes will there be more stands available on top of what we already know ?
 
Which could suggest room for a new airline maybe ?

One point to make which I do not think has been mentioned yet is that tui are currently planning to base two 787s over the weekends of summer 2021 - one for short haul and one long haul so I’m not sure whether that may change the equation.

finally once the old terminal goes will there be more stands available on top of what we already know ?
A new airline or further expansion of existing ones.

If there are to be two 787s at weekends in 2021 they would have to be kept apart, or one stand converted into another Code E stand which would then doubtless impinge on neighbouring stands. Knowing TUI's record for altering flights that have been published well over a year in advance I would not be surprised to see only one 787 at 2021 summer weekends.

I take it that the two stands coming on stream in late summer this year mentioned in MM's submission are to be sited where the OTB stood. I don't know if there will be room for any more there.

If the airport did manage to get its passenger cap lifted to 12 mppa I presume it would need more stands as the passenger numbers grew towards the 12 million.
 
Not that anyone would have wanted it this way, but I wonder if the coronavirus might actually be a help to BRS in the long run.

On the assumption that the airport will appeal the local authority’s rejection of its expansion planning application the process could take a fairly long time - perhaps two years or more if subsequent legal challenges were made to an overturning of the local authority rejection decision.

Had the virus not struck with as yet unknown consequences for aviation, it’s probable that BRS would have reached or have been within touching distance of its current 10 mppa cap by the end of 2021.

If, as seems likely, airports see falls in passenger numbers this year and possibly into next, the 10 mppa barrier might take a year or two longer for BRS to reach.

That might be vital breathing space to prevent airlines going elsewhere during what would surely be a protracted period of appeal and possible further legal action.

A final rejection would confirm the passenger volume limitation to the airport and airlines, and future plans could be made by both with that in mind. A final positive outcome in the airport's favour would mean it could grow in the way it wants without having lost some airline business to other airports because of continuing passenger cap uncertainty.

Since 1961 there have been only eight years when BRS has seen a drop in passenger numbers over the previous year, with four of the eight in the 1960s and 1970s. In percentage terms the worst year was 1974 when, following the Court Line cessation, passenger numbers were down just over 36% compared with 1973, although by today's standards the actual drop was small - a fall of 105,000 passengers from 1973's 289,000.

The last time annual passenger numbers fell was in 2009 when the recession saw a near 10% reduction to 5.615 million. A 10% fall in 2020 would see nearly 900,000 fewer passengers than in 2019.
 
iuiumicinoCoronavirus - BRS-Italy flights

As Italy is currently the most severely affected European destination with numerous flights cancelled by many airlines I've looked at the Italian programme from BRS for March and April. Below are the number of weekly flights to each Italian destination currently shown in booking engines broken down into airlines:

Bologna

March 0 April 2 (Ryanair)

Catania

March 2 (easyJet) April 2 (easyJet)

Milan Bergamo

March 2/3 (Ryanair) April 3 (Ryanair)

Milan Malpensa

March 4/5 (Ryanair 2/3, easyJet 2) April 7 (Ryanair 3, easyJet 4)

Naples

March 2 (easyJet) April 3 (easyJet) TUI re-commences at 3 weekly from May

Olbia

March 0 April 2 (easyJet - 3 from May)

Rome Fiumicino

March 7 (easyJet daily) April 7 (easyJet daily)

Turin

March 3 (Ryanair 1, easyJet 1, TUI 1) April 1 (easyJet)

Venice

March 7/8 (Ryanair 2/3, easyJet 5) April 12 (Ryanair 5, easyJet daily)

Verona

March 1 (TUI) April 0

In addition easyJet is due to re-commence Brindisi (2 x weekly) in May, with TUI re-commencing Verona (1 x weekly) also in May.

How many of the above flights will operate remains to be seen.

Addendum 1240 10.3.20

Ryanair have just announced the cancellation of all flights to Italy from 13 March until 8 April. Also reported that easyJet have cancelled most of theirs.
 
Not that anyone would have wanted it this way, but I wonder if the coronavirus might actually be a help to BRS in the long run.

Had the virus not struck with as yet unknown consequences for aviation, it’s probable that BRS would have reached or have been within touching distance of its current 10 mppa cap by the end of 2021.

If, as seems likely, airports see falls in passenger numbers this year and possibly into next, the 10 mppa barrier might take a year or two longer for BRS to reach.

People are now beginning to speculate on aviation message boards as to the possible effects on airport passenger numbers if the virus retains its hold for much of the year.

I've read suggestions that MAN could be down to 23 mppa from its 29 mppa in 2019 and Luton down to 14 mppa (12.5 mppa in another suggestion) from its 2019 total of 18 mppa. On that basis BRS might be looking at the low 7 mppa in 2020 down from 8.9 mppa in 2019.

Obviously no more than speculation at this time but the loss of the Italian flights from BRS alone would put a small dent in the airport's passenger numbers even if they all returned to operation in April - probably an unlikely scenario.
 
People are now beginning to speculate on aviation message boards as to the possible effects on airport passenger numbers if the virus retains its hold for much of the year.

I've read suggestions that MAN could be down to 23 mppa from its 29 mppa in 2019 and Luton down to 14 mppa (12.5 mppa in another suggestion) from its 2019 total of 18 mppa. On that basis BRS might be looking at the low 7 mppa in 2020 down from 8.9 mppa in 2019.

Obviously no more than speculation at this time but the loss of the Italian flights from BRS alone would put a small dent in the airport's passenger numbers even if they all returned to operation in April - probably an unlikely scenario.
With countries such as the Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland closing or about to close their borders to foreigners, and parts of Spain under FO advice for essential travel only, Malta imposing a 14-day quarantine on all arriving visitors from the UK and other places, with flights to Italy already suspended, with other countries likely to close their borders, there is likely to be a rapid reduction in flights and passenger numbers from BRS and from many other airports.

Edinburgh Airport has suggested that there might come a time in the next few months when they will have no passengers passing through at all. If that does happen it won't only be EDI.
 
Spain and its territories

Jet2 has stopped all its flights to mainland Spain, the Balearics and the Canaries. Its rationale is that because Spain has closed its restaurant, bars, shops and other places of entertainment it will have a significant impact on their customers' holidays.

It remains to be seen whether other airlines will follow suit - almost cetainly 'when' rather than 'whether' because Spain is now imposing severe restrictions on its citizens' movements, much like those in Italy.

Out of interest I looked at today's BRS departures to Spain and its territories with the following result:

Alicante: easyJet, Ryanair - there is also a TUI departure at 1430 which is shown as cancelled. I'm not sure whether this was intended to operate today.
Arrecife: easyJet
Barcelona: easyJet
Fuerteventura: easyJet, TUI
Las Palmas: easyJet, Ryanair
Malaga: easyJet, Ryanair
Madrid: easyJet - FO advice is for essential travel only
Murcia: easyJet
Palma: easyJet
Tenerife South: easyjet, Ryanair

That's 15 departures, not counting the cancelled TUI to Alicante, and this on just one day in the winter season. Summer would be considerably busier.

NB. All information talen from the BRS website departures page which is not always one hundred per cent reliable.

Update 1430 14.3.20

TUI have cancelled their 1325 hours BRS-FUE flight. This service is operated by a non BRS-based aircraft and arrived from FUE at 1202 with the inbound to BRS passengers. I presume the cancellation is for the same reason as Jet2's cancellations and might well be the first of all cancellations to Spain and its territories from BRS by all airlines, with presumably similar action taken at other UK airports.
 
Twitter message from a mother that her son working at departures security was sent home at 7 am as there was no work due to reduced passenger numbers. Advised not to attend work unless asked to.
 
Twitter message from a mother that her son working at departures security was sent home at 7 am as there was no work due to reduced passenger numbers. Advised not to attend work unless asked to.
With more and more countries closing their borders the number of flights anywhere is going to reduce substantially with, if the EDI people are to be believed, some airports handling few if any passengers. To what extent the effects of this virus will alter aviation in the future obviously remains to be seen and at this stage it's impossible even to speculate with any semblance of accuracy.

There seems little doubt that staff in all parts of the industry are going to be impacted adversely to a significant degree, as are those in many other industries. For that and all other reasons we can only hope that the worst effects of the virus are behind us as quickly as possible, but it does seem from professional estimates that the best scenario will be several months.
 
This has suddenly gone stratospheric. The ex policeman who died was from Nailsea and travelled from Tenerife. He must have travelled through Bristol Airport. Lots of airport staff must be concerned. Have they handled his bags, tickets, passports, sat next to him.
 
Stratospheric? Are we not getting a little bit too panicky. Working on the ramp I’ve had injuries from needles in baggage and unidentified powders and chemicals. You deal with it,. You are just as likely, if not more so, to get infected in a supermarket.

We need to heed current advice, stop scare mongering and consider those whose jobs and health may be affected
 
The impact of Covid19 on flights and passenger figures has been so extensive that from tomorrow many catering establishments including Burger King, Frankie and Bennys, Bar Burrito, cabin bar, EAT will close temporarily.

Costa will operate as takeaway only. No seating will be available.

Staff currently parking in the staff car park n Silver zone, which is 99 % of all staff, will be asked to park in the multi storey car park from tomorrow. The shuttle bus service will thus cease for staff.

Bizarre times. Leaving this on here for future reference of the impact of this pandemic. Its not scare mongering, its the reality of the event.
 
Not really a Bristol airport piece but I can see at BRS the extent of the travel ban with cancelled flights but I thought travel to and from the US was cancelled? I’m seeing daily loads of flights on flight radar going back and forth...
 
Not really a Bristol airport piece but I can see at BRS the extent of the travel ban with cancelled flights but I thought travel to and from the US was cancelled? I’m seeing daily loads of flights on flight radar going back and forth...
There were over 40 departures from BRS today according to the airport website departure page (about half the number normally expected on a Thursday at the end of the winter period). How many were 'rescue flights' I don't know, and I wonder about the load factors generally. Clearly this level of operation will soon reduce very significantly.

The airport has issued a Covid-19 update today.


Bristol Airport Covid-19 Update
Created: 19th Mar 2020

Bristol Airport like other UK airports is experiencing an unprecedented reduction in customer demand for air travel due to the impact of COVID-19 virus. We continue to work closely with airlines, the Government, Department for Transport and Public Health England on the latest information and guidance for customers travelling through Bristol Airport.

We remain open to assist our airline partners providing urgent travel within the UK, repatriating customers returning to the UK, or customers returning home within Europe. Safety and security of our customers and staff is our key priority at all times and enhanced cleaning procedures and self-distancing policies are in place to keep our customers and colleagues safe.

The aviation industry has faced many challenges before, but the scale and impact of COVID-19 has seen the largest European downturn of customer demand the airlines have experienced. Bristol Airport similar to other airports, airlines and business partners will introduce measures to ensure the long term sustainability of the business during these exceptional circumstances. This includes reducing or deferring capital expenditure for the remainder of 2020, scaling back recruitment, and reducing the opening hours of catering and retail outlets within the terminal. These measures will ensure Bristol Airport is in the best shape possible to support customers, colleagues and the regions economic recovery when the time comes. It is a dynamic situation and further reviews and difficult decisions may be necessary to protect the business for the future.

Dave Lees, CEO, Bristol Airport commented:

“The risk to the aviation industry must not be underestimated. Aviation has experienced challenges before including airline failures, Volcanic ash airspace closures and terror attacks but the impact of COVID-19 will have far reaching repercussions. Air connectivity is a vital part of our society and economic success and Bristol Airport will be ready to resume this role for our region. We await information on yesterday’s Government’s announcement on a package of measures to support airlines and airports. ”

This is a rapidly changing situation and all customers are advised to keep updated by visiting their airline website.
 

Upload Media

Upgrade Your Account

Subscribe to help support your favourite forum and in return we'll remove all our advertisements. Your contribution will help to pay for things like site maintenance, domain name renewals and annual server charges.



Forums4aiports
Subscribe

NEW - Profile Posts

9 trips in 9 days done 70 miles walked and over 23-00 photos taken with a large number taken at 20mph or above. Heavy rain on 1 day only
5 trips done and 45 miles walked,. Also the RAF has had 4 F35B Lightning follow me yesterday and today....
My plans got altered slightly as one of the minibus companies had to cancel 3 trips and refunded me but will be getting nice discount when I rebook them.
wondering why on my "holidays" I choose to get up 2 hours earlier than when going to work. 6 trips in 6 days soon coming up with 3 more days to sort out

Trending Hashtags

Advertisement

Back
Top Bottom
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

Sure, ad-blocking software does a great job at blocking ads, but it also blocks useful features of our website. For the best site experience please disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock