Flybe

[Jerry]

If they do survive, I can see them retreating to their big bases at MAN and BHX, and everywhere else such as LBA, NCL, DSA, EXT, SOU, NQY will probably get left behind. Perhaps big fleet reduction to cut costs??

You're assuming MAN and BHX are profitable! Some routes might be but a lot might not be.

 

[Finger66]

Just like Brexit, talking ourselves into the worse case..........nothing has happened.........yet

 

[Tarn Spotter]

Like Monarch the debts and liabilities of the company will I think put off any potential buyers. Looking at the millions Monarch spend to ensure lease aircraft in an acceptable condition for return to the lease holder. Flybe have 9 aircraft in a similar situation.
The only saving grace is that fuel prices have dropped by 30% this month and future prices for December are 10% lower then spot prices, so the market expects further price falls.

 

[Jerry]

The person who wrote this article thinks they'll be ok.
https://www.headforpoints.com/2018/11/17/why-flybe-will-not-go-bankrupt/

 

[Jerry]

So if he thinks that how many shares has he bought?....best time to buy when they are so low!
I bet he hasn't bought a penny's worth.....

But if he considers himself a journalist buying shares in an airline he's writing about may not be part of his moral code. He does state that he or anyone in his family doesn't own shares.

 

[a300boy]

Avgas is around £1-80 per lt at present which is pretty expensive to me.
I will check the price of Avtur tomorrow but it’s a surprise to me that crude oil is 30% cheaper this month it’s time they passed it on to the cutomers a bit quicker.

 

[Seasider]

C'mon, they are always slow to raise the price when it goes up. 🤔

 

[Severn]

The person who wrote this article thinks they'll be ok.
https://www.headforpoints.com/2018/11/17/why-flybe-will-not-go-bankrupt/

So if he thinks that how many shares has he bought?....best time to buy when they are so low!
I bet he hasn't bought a penny's worth.....

I think you’ll find the article will have been paid for/sponsored by Flybe.....

 

[Jerry]

I think you’ll find the article will have been paid for/sponsored by Flybe.....

Or maybe he's done it off his own back and given his own opinion? I guess we'll never know for sure.

 

[Severn]

Or maybe he's done it off his own back and given his own opinion? I guess we'll never know for sure.

The top of the article states "Links on Head for Points pay us an affiliate commission. A list of our partners is here." ... Unsurprisingly, Flybe is one of their partners so in one way or another HfP will be making money from Flybe, even if it's when someone click the links to the Flybe website throughout the article.

It is also worth noting that the current Head of Loyalty at Flybe has recently moved over from having worked for Avios, so will know the importance of these kinds of websites. The latest article on the HfP site even states this: Flybe is launching a new ‘double Avios’ Black Friday promotion today. I sat down to discuss it with Flybe’s new Head of Loyalty, Oliver Ross, last week – I know Oliver from his previous role at Avios – and he also shared some ideas about how he sees Flybe’s frequent flyer efforts developing.

 

[Len Fish]

The writer of the article may be optimistic, but as a business you don’t put yourself up for sale without good reason.

 

[Tarn Spotter]

Avgas is around £1-80 per lt at present which is pretty expensive to me.
I will check the price of Avtur tomorrow but it’s a surprise to me that crude oil is 30% cheaper this month it’s time they passed it on to the cutomers a bit quicker.

Brent crude on friday on the exchange I use was 66 US$ to 67 US$ against 93 US$ a month ago. Figures last week show weekly oil production now in excess of 92 billion barrels a day from an average of mid 80's last year. An extra 2 billion barrels are going in to stock daily, on top of a historic stockpile as winter has been mild so far, world wide.
In addition as americas trade war with china deepens we have seen the dollar fall from its heights, making buying in dollars another dividend, we have seen the dollar rate as high as 1.32 this month from a low of 1.20 since brexit vote.
President Trump intends to push for a 20% of world oil production, enabling the west to escape the middle east opec strangle hold they have on the world stage.
The future price for even one month forward from today is minus 15.5% on currant price, most think we will see 55 dollars a barrel by christmas, certainly december futures friday were around 56 dollars.
TRuthfully dont know jet fuel prices, but note the US Energy information agency showing a drop from 2.27 a gallon end of October to 1.95 by last wednesday, a drop of 16% in less then 2 weeks. Assuming a 1.28 exchange rate to the pound were talking around 1.52 spot on the u.k. market and this for an american measurement. Accept not retail price.

 

[KARFA]

The person who wrote this article thinks they'll be ok.
https://www.headforpoints.com/2018/11/17/why-flybe-will-not-go-bankrupt/

Rob is usually fairly reasonable in what he writes. I am afraid he is a little over optimistic in this article and it is clear BE hare having real problems. Serious action is clearly needed in order to make the airline sustainable.

He wasn't paid for writing the article so I am not sure why that is being suggested. Generally having affiliate links to earn a few pence commission if someone clicks through is not remotely the same as being paid to write an article.

 

[Finger66]

I think the best thing Flybe can do is a 're brand as Yoyo Air the way their shares are up and down! Last week I was quite confident they would survive by the skin of their teeth. Right now, much as I hope I am wrong, I am not so sure. Adverse press and dropping confidence are not a good combination. If they are to survive, any sale, merger or general remedial action needs to be swift. Worrying times for all concerned

 

[lbaspotter]

Rumour doing rounds that Flybe and British Airways Cityflyer are very close to agreeing a full merger.

 

[Jerry]

That'll be interesting! I'm guessing the BA brand would take primacy if that happens?

 

[paully]

Rumour doing rounds that Flybe and British Airways Cityflyer are very close to agreeing a full merger.

If that rumour is true it would be very good news, not least for their staff, particularly at this time of year. Yes there will be changes and upheaval, no doubt, but far better than an unthinkable alternative. I wish them all the very best

 

[oldendays]

BA Connect, CitiExpress etc. all over again. What's in a name, mind ? If this is true, I hope it works. And quickly.

 

[Bigman]

If BA Connect do take over FlyBe, I do wonder what impact that would have on LBA routes.

 

[White Heather]

I would think it will all depend on whether the routes make money from LBA or not. I would like to think it would result in the routes continuing. Experience tells me not to be silly and expect the worst - but I would think that Belfast City, Dusseldorf and Newquay are all profitable routes out of LBA. Southampton is a worry.