Birmingham Airport - General Thread

[paul]

Have also sent my comments

 

[Brum X]

I've just added a couple of comments, I'll do some more in the future

It may also be worth mentioning it on Birmingham Airport social media.

I did mention this on the BHX social media on Friday but no reply as of yet. I will did it again now.

 

[Brum X]

Also added a comment on social media regarding Easyjet's gaping hole in their network.

Good stuff MJH and paul, they will get tired of us soon and just give us some routes to shut us up, thats what im hoping anyway.

 

[hammerb32]

All - would be interested in your views on what would happen in the event the UK leaves the EU with no deal given most (all?) aviation markets we're in are currently governed by EU agreements and deals. Not interested if you're leave or remain, plenty of other places to have that debate but if we did leave with no deal overnight, other than domestic flights would all flights literally be grounded until we negotiate new agreements with each country?

 

[User001]

With bombarding Easyjet social media in the hope it shows demand for flights and they start routes, are you not just creating 'artificial demand' and thus potentially setting up to fail?

For example, as an enthusiast, I could bombard Aeroflot social media to start a MAN-SVO route. I could get my mates on board and make it look like loads of people want to fly the route.

Let's just say by some miracle, Aeroflot look at it all and go 'bloody hell, loads of people want MAN-SVO, let's do the route'. They open the route, but then, tumbleweed. All these people who 'asked' for the flight were my mates and their mates, they don't actually want to fly the route, neither did I, I just wanted the tail on the ground. Yeah, there may be one or 2 out of those who actually wanted the routes, but, not the vast majority.

This is why social media can actually be a bad thing. This route promo that Eurowings are doing for their new summer route from Cologne, unless it's a gimmick to launch all the routes, it's a flawed process as you can vote as many times as you like. People on the Belfast thread of proon have openly admitted to voting many times for the same route, and I bet few of those voting would actually use the route, so, it's a flawed process.

I'm all for going after new routes, I'm all for promoting the need for extra capacity, but, let's not ask for the sake of asking. Instead of a blanket 'we want easyjet', why not ask for specific routes? Routes you would ACTUALLY use! That way, it's pinpointing specific demand and if the route is launched, and you use it, then it could lead to more routes organically. Just look at Jet2 for that proof.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Unless airports or airlines take a scientific approach to a survey they invariably get lots of people saying they would use proposed route A (or B, or whatever) when what they often mean is that it would be a good route to have in case they ever wanted to use it. The two are not the same thing at all, as airports in my area (BRS and CWL ) have discovered in the past when they've asked the public for its views.

easyJet and BHX have long seemed a proper fit. I'm surprised it's never happened. I've read that in the past it might have been partly down to BHX's charges, presumably meaning that the airport wasn't prepared to negotiate special rates with an airline such as easyJet.

 

[richard winterbourn]

Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater by trying to create an artificial demand.

EasyJet is already at BHX, it has multi-daily flights to Belfast as well as flights to Grenoble and Geneva. So, don't think that EasyJet don't know about BHX or, more pointedly, what its potential is.

That it has not created a base there has been a company decision, rightly or wrongly you might add, but that is the case. Neither has it sought to expand its operations there by utilising away-based aircraft thus linking BHX to a raft of European destinations.

The flummery over the past few days has occurred on the back of the demise of Monarch. EasyJet appreciate all that has happened and almost certainly has discussed its operations at the highest level. If that is going to include a greater presence at BHX we will, in the fullness of time, find out.

As User001 right points out, bombarding them with quasi-fictitious requests for flights will serve no useful purpose. I have only made known my position to EasyJet when THEY have emailed ME and i have told me them their nearest base to my home is too far away....

 

[Brum X]

With bombarding Easyjet social media in the hope it shows demand for flights and they start routes, are you not just creating 'artificial demand' and thus potentially setting up to fail?

For example, as an enthusiast, I could bombard Aeroflot social media to start a MAN-SVO route. I could get my mates on board and make it look like loads of people want to fly the route.

Let's just say by some miracle, Aeroflot look at it all and go 'bloody hell, loads of people want MAN-SVO, let's do the route'. They open the route, but then, tumbleweed. All these people who 'asked' for the flight were my mates and their mates, they don't actually want to fly the route, neither did I, I just wanted the tail on the ground. Yeah, there may be one or 2 out of those who actually wanted the routes, but, not the vast majority.

This is why social media can actually be a bad thing. This route promo that Eurowings are doing for their new summer route from Cologne, unless it's a gimmick to launch all the routes, it's a flawed process as you can vote as many times as you like. People on the Belfast thread of proon have openly admitted to voting many times for the same route, and I bet few of those voting would actually use the route, so, it's a flawed process.

I'm all for going after new routes, I'm all for promoting the need for extra capacity, but, let's not ask for the sake of asking. Instead of a blanket 'we want easyjet', why not ask for specific routes? Routes you would ACTUALLY use! That way, it's pinpointing specific demand and if the route is launched, and you use it, then it could lead to more routes organically. Just look at Jet2 for that proof.

Artificial demand ?? We are upto 10 aircraft short compared to 2 weeks ago. And Easyjet fly to all of those places that those 10 Monarch aircraft flew too ? Apart from Stockholm maybe.

But we are not talking about Aeroflot User, this is squeezyjet ? Now come on, how can Squeezyjet fail ? In my opinion they wouldnt even have to do much advertisement becouse people are shocked that they dont have a considerable presence at BHX. Most people probably think (Non Aviation enthusiasts) that easyjet would fly from BHX to places like PMI/AGP etc and are more shocked that they dont.

Im not going to make the Easyjet social media server blow up with my continuous annoying messages, but will keep gently reminding them that BHX is here when they keep reminding us (BHX) that S18 is on sale.

 

[User001]

With the greatest respect, I think you've missed the whole point of my post BrumX.

 

[Brum X]

With the greatest respect, I think you've missed the whole point of my post BrumX.

OK

Just not sure how ive missed your point user.

 

[User001]

BrumX.

You question if it's creating artificial demand in the face of loosing 10 based monarch.

Now, Im well aware of the loss of Monarch and the void it has created. But, let's just forget what happened to Monarch for the purpose of this post.

If you bombard an airline saying 'please serve XYZ' and also get loads of your mates to do it, you are giving the impression that all of those people would actually use that or all of those services. But realistically, would you actually use them? That's what artificial demand is, it's giving the impression you would be a regular customer, when in reality, you probably wouldn't be.

Now, as far as the void left by Monarch is concerned.

Firstly, some of that void has been filled by Jet2 and TUI, so, it isn't 10 based aircraft to fill as it is.

Secondly, even if there was the void to fill, who is to say it could be done profitably? With the best will in the world, who is to say the routes were profitable. Apart from conjecture of dodgy management, there is a reason Monarch have gone under, and who is to say it wasn't due to the route mix? It's easy for us to sit back in our armchairs and state 'well, we are 6 flights a week down to Palma, that will definately be filled'. Will it? Who is to say the void won't be left in place for a while to get yield back up?

Yield has been a big issue this summer. Never before have I been able to pick up a return to Malaga for £26 just 3 days out. That tells you there has been over capacity, and Monarch were the casualty of that in the UK. Just Like Air Berlin in Germany, just like Alitalia in Italy and so on.

Thirdly, Easyjet will be well aware of what the Birmingham market could offer. They already have 3 routes, they have the raw data back from the EMA base, they have the raw data of people travelling to LPL/MAN/LTN/STN to use Easyjet flights. They have CAA data, they have market trends.

This is going to offend, but it's the best way I can put it across....Do you really think they have all that data and sit there looking at Facebook and think 'blooming heck, that Alan from Birmingham has just asked for route XYZ, he clearly knows his stuff let's get this route going...' It can take years to build up a profile to get a base going, if they want to serve a route, they will do it when they deem the time right, and for now, as far as a base goes, they don't think the time is right.

 

[Brum X]

This is going to offend, but it's the best way I can put it across....Do you really think they have all that data and sit there looking at Social Media and think 'blooming heck, that Alan from Birmingham has just asked for route XYZ, he clearly knows his stuff let's get this route going...' It can take years to build up a profile to get a base going, if they want to serve a route, they will do it when they deem the time right, and for now, as far as a base goes, they don't think the time is right.

User001, you are not going to offend me as im quite aware of what im doing is probably going to make no difference at all, im not on my laptop writing lots of messages and its not on my mind 24/7 either. However in my opinion its not going to do any harm either and that is exactly what social media is meant to be for, to communicate with companies/organisations.

And just on a side not, i actually remember the top man at Jet2 being interviewed about why Jet2 had decided to open a base at BHX in 2017, what had taken you so long ? and his reply was that the company was inundated with requests from people in the Birmingham area for flights from BHX with Jet2. Now im not saying this was becouse people like myself did a similar thing with them, but it might of hurried the process up a little.

 

[Coathanger16]

Erm, @User001 I think you've just defeated your own argument:

If you bombard an airline saying 'please serve XYZ' and also get loads of your mates to do it, you are giving the impression that all of those people would actually use that or all of those services. But realistically, would you actually use them? That's what artificial demand is, it's giving the impression you would be a regular customer, when in reality, you probably wouldn't be.

Do you really think they have all that data and sit there looking at Social Media and think 'blooming heck, that Alan from Birmingham has just asked for route XYZ, he clearly knows his stuff let's get this route going...' It can take years to build up a profile to get a base going, if they want to serve a route, they will do it when they deem the time right, and for now, as far as a base goes, they don't think the time is right.

If any airline started a route based on what someone on social media said, and the route failed, then that is one stupid airline and the blame is entirely on them. As you point out, they have data regarding passenger stats, demand, etc, and if they choose to ignore that and act on what someone on social media said then I wouldn't trust them with much else. There's also a difference between a new airline starting a niche route from Manchester and a very well known airline serving popular routes from Birmingham.

At the very least, someone on the "Social Media" team at easyJet may see a question about easyJet basing aircraft at BHX and forward that comment onto management. That in turn may make someone in management question why they don't have a base at BHX. As @Brum X said, it does no harm in asking - easyJet aren't going to make a decision based purely on what someone says on social media.

As for whether or not there is demand there, and easyJet launching a base when the time is right, what are they waiting for? Jet2 launched a base earlier this year and they will also have a certain set of criteria - what could easyJet want above and beyond that? Maybe its just me being bitter about easyJet not having a base at BHX, but I've long suspected that the reason for it isn't a lack of demand but rather easyJet wanting a preferential deal from BHX management and for them to push easyJet as the number 1 airline at BHX, whilst BHX management didn't want to disadvantage other airlines.

Not trying to offend, but it's all very well dismissing this and stating "easyJet will launch a base when/if the time is right", when you already have an easyJet base at MAN. If I recall after the collapse of Monarch, many posters on the Manchester forums stated very clearly that easyJet should base more aircraft at MAN in light of the void left behind by Monarch. Why is it that when Monarch pulled out of Manchester there is demand there and easyJet should base more aircraft there, but at Birmingham its a case of Monarch failed because there was too much capacity?

I must admit to playing devils advocate here - I'm still entirely on the fence but leaning more towards not wanting easyJet to open a base at Birmingham. I'd rather existing airlines expand their bases and drive up yields rather than push down ticket prices.

 

[User001]

Why is it that when Monarch pulled out of Manchester there is demand there and easyJet should base more aircraft there, but at Birmingham its a case of Monarch failed because there was too much capacity?

As this is a BHX thread it's natural to think I was talking about BHX. In fact, I was talking about the picture overall. In terms of your specific question, On the MAN thread we are talking about Easyjet expansion, but, we are talking about 2 aircraft (yes it's 3 overall but one was planned before the monarch collapse). With Jet2 adding another 1 (again, there will be 2 overall but one was planned pre monarch collapse as per Easyjet). There is also TUI but while there is an increase in seats, I'm not sure if it's an increase of based units yet. Therefore, we are talking about loosing 9 but gaining 3 confirmed units. That's hardly pushing capacity back to exactly where it was, is it? I believe MAN was a little oversubscribed on a few routes too, so, I'm not singling out BHX at all.

As for the first part of your post, in a roundabout way you are actually agreeing with me so no point going over that ground.

 

[58terminus]

ing a bit heated.As i see it Monarch have been rumoured to be in difficulties for a number of years.
Before Greybull took control.

If I recall after the collapse of Monarch, many posters on the Manchester forums stated very clearly that easyJet should base more aircraft at MAN in light of the void left behind by Monarch. Why is it that when Monarch pulled out of Manchester there is demand there and easyJet should base more aircraft there, but at Birmingham its a case of Monarch failed because there was too much capacity?

As you say Coathanger, makes no sense.The void is at BHX and JET2 anticipated it before the event and are filling it.Also agree with your existing airline comment.

 

[Coathanger16]

As this is a BHX thread it's natural to think I was talking about BHX. In fact, I was talking about the picture overall. In terms of your specific question, On the MAN thread we are talking about Easyjet expansion, but, we are talking about 2 aircraft (yes it's 3 overall but one was planned before the monarch collapse). With Jet2 adding another 1 (again, there will be 2 overall but one was planned pre monarch collapse as per Easyjet). There is also TUI but while there is an increase in seats, I'm not sure if it's an increase of based units yet. Therefore, we are talking about loosing 9 but gaining 3 confirmed units. That's hardly pushing capacity back to exactly where it was, is it? I believe MAN was a little oversubscribed on a few routes too, so, I'm not singling out BHX at all.

As for the first part of your post, in a roundabout way you are actually agreeing with me so no point going over that ground.

The impression I got was that people were wanting more to be added specifically because of Monarch - if I have misinterpreted that then apologies.

As i see it Monarch have been rumoured to be in difficulties for a number of years.
Before Greybull took control.

Indeed. Various MPs are stating that Brexit was the primary reason for the collapse of Monarch? Views?

 

[58terminus]

Indeed. Various MPs are stating that Brexit was the primary reason for the collapse of Monarch? Views?

Well if it's MPs i would tend to disregard their comments.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Some interesting points but lets look at it from another angle.

Lets say that Easyjet are actually mulling over a BHX base and public opinion sways the decision, lets say that the base then goes on to be very successful with continued growth for many years and everyone sits back and wonders why the hell they didn't do it five years ago. That scenario is not so unbelievable.

The Jet2 point is a good one. Public demand was a factor in their decision and nobody could have imagined just how successful they'd be in such a short space of time. One could argue that Easyjet are still much more well known than Jet2.

Sure it's a risk, so is every new route/airline, but without risk you'd have no growth. In any case I'd seriously doubt that Easyjet would come straight in with 11 based planes, it'd be more like 3 or possibly 4, so still well short of the capacity offered by Monarch but the potential would be there to grow in a sustainable way in the future.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I doubt that there is anything in it but the Chairman of Delhi Airport is currently in Birmingham

 

[58terminus]

doubt that there is anything in it but the Chairman of Delhi Airport is currently in Birmingham

Family wedding?