Longhaul from Bristol

[TheLocalYokel]

There is a discussion in another forum concerning the United NCL-EWR route that commenced this summer with suggestions that it's not performing well.

This could be either good news or bad news for BRS.

Good if United looks for another route to replace the NCL one, although I hope that if BRS does get such a route it's because of its own positive aspects rather than the demise of another route, and I certainly don't want to see NCL fail.

Bad if the airline decides that NCL is a bellwether for all UK smaller regional airports and opts out of all such routes in future.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There is a discussion in another forum concerning the United NCL-EWR route that commenced this summer with suggestions that it's not performing well.

This could be either good news or bad news for BRS.

Good if United looks for another route to replace the NCL one, although I hope that if BRS does get such a route it's because of its own positive aspects rather than the demise of another route, and I certainly don't want to see NCL fail.

Bad if the airline decides that NCL is a bellwether for all UK smaller regional airports and opts out of all such routes in future.

The June figures are now out for NCL-EWR with United and show a 55% load factor.

Continental operated BRS-EWR from late May 2005 until early November 2010.

I have all the monthly loads for BRS-EWR and can't find any month, even in mid winter, where the load factor dropped to 55%.

The load factor for June 2005 for BRS-EWR (the first full month of the route) was 71%. By August it had risen to 82% and in subsequent years the main summer months regularly saw monthly load factors in the mid to high 80s%. The last full month of the route (October 2010) saw an 83% load factor at a time when it was known that the route was to cease early the following month.

Now I know that load factors only tell part of the story and that comments have been made that fares on NCL-EWR are high compared with bigger UK airports. The same thing was said about BRS-EWR.

The recession which hit BRS in 2009 did not help BRS-EWR but even so the load factors didn't drop that much.

I've always felt that the main reason that CO dropped BRS-EWR was their access to LHR, something they didn't have when they began the BRS route. As soon as they gained access to LHR CO axed their LGW-EWR rotations.

I posted several times to various aviation message boards that BRS-EWR was on borrowed time once LHR was operated by them. I took no pleasure in being shown to be correct when the inevitable happened but to me it made no sense for CO to be operating 4 x daily from LHR to EWR with a fifth daily rotation at a small airport 100 miles away. In 2010 CO moved this rotation to LHR to operate to EWR 5 x daily. I don't know the current schedule with United.

CO operated a 172-seat B 757-200 (later increased to 175 seats) on BRS-EWR. I believe that United operates a similar aircraft on NCL-EWR.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

With the news that Thomson has chosen CWL to operate to its new cruise terminal at Dubai (apparently to Al Maktoum Airport - DWC) one has to wonder whether this is a commercial or an operational decision. I'm not clear on the type of aircraft to be used although presumably it will be a B 767 or a B 787.

Thomson operates more cruise flights to the West Indies from CWL than from BRS with the latter's ration fairly negligible, although these flights are often for other oganisations such as P & O.

Given that Thomson selected BRS for its cruise flights to Dubrovnik I have a lingering feeling that the company has a concern about operating its larger aircraft from BRS hence the choice of CWL for Dubai.

I hope I'm wrong as it would likely mean no future transatlantic sun charters to the likes of Florida and Mexico.

 

[jfy1999]

Thomson have flown 767s from BRS before, haven't they? The flights are most likely to be on the 788 because the 767s have now mostly been relegated to short haul since all the ex-First Choice aircraft were phased out.

I believe there might be operational issues with the 788 at Bristol?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Thomson have flown 767s from BRS before, haven't they? The flights are most likely to be on the 788 because the 767s have now mostly been relegated to short haul since all the ex-First Choice aircraft were phased out.

I believe there might be operational issues with the 788 at Bristol?

Until a couple of years ago there were weekly summer Thomson flights to Florida, Mexico and in some years to Cuba and Dominican Republic. The aircraft used were the former First Choice B 767s. Florida could be reached non-stop but the rest required an en route fuel stop at MAN on the outbound.

In 2010 there was a significant incident when a transatlantic TOM B 767 suffered an extremely hard landing that caused serious damage to the fuselage. The subsequent AAIB report drew attention to the disproportionate number of hard landings with B 767s on the easterly runway (09). TOM continued with regular B 767 services for a number of years after this but withdrew them at the time the former First Choice B 767s were about to be taken out of the fleet.

In 2010 the TOM MD stated that BRS would be amongst the first group of airports to see regular B 787 operations but that hasn't happened. Boeing initially said that the 787 (800 series) could reach the west coast of America non-stop from the current runway without load penalty, vide airport master plan.

Whether it's TOM that is reluctant to use the 787 on the BRS runway because of the history of 767 hard landings or whether it's a commercial decision is not clear. There is apparently no legal bar preventing the 787 using BRS.

Whenever long haul is discussed re BRS the spectre of what might have been invariably appears. Had the city council moved to Filton in the 1950s instead of Lulsgate it's not fanciful to suggest that there would be 10 million passengers a year, always providing of course that an accommodation could have been reached with the Filton aerodrome owners and that the many thousands of potential nimbys living nearby didn't chuck in their oar.

 

[Marko1]

Given that Norwegian have announced new routes from cork to Boston and New York , maybe this may be a possible new opportunity ( similar runway etc)

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Given that Norwegian have announced new routes from cork to Boston and New York , maybe this may be a possible new opportunity ( similar runway etc)

Very unexpected. It seems that this airline is indulging in a big game changer and that almost any UK airport might be next. It's 3 or 4 x weekly to Boston on a Boeing 737-800 from ORK.

 

[superking]

im hearing mutterings about a brs to ewr service.if true it will be announced weds the 21 october.
the airline being talked about is aer lingus with a direct 757 equipment.
lets hope mutterings are correct.watch this space.

 

[kraktoa]

im hearing mutterings about a brs to ewr service.if true it will be announced weds the 21 october.
the airline being talked about is aer lingus with a direct 757 equipment.
lets hope mutterings are correct.watch this space.

That will be big news tomorrow. :drinks:

 

[kraktoa]

Bradley International Airport in Connecticut has announced flights to Dublin just 14 hrs ago.

Irish Independent has reported 3 new routes including LA and Connecticut. 3rd route unknown but rumoured to be Miami. These announcements are Dublin centric so don't know how Bristol fits in.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

im hearing mutterings about a brs to ewr service.if true it will be announced weds the 21 october.
the airline being talked about is aer lingus with a direct 757 equipment.
lets hope mutterings are correct.watch this space.

I don't think Aer Lingus has any 757s and it would surely dilute the current NYC service via Dublin.

 

[jfy1999]

im hearing mutterings about a brs to ewr service.if true it will be announced weds the 21 october.
the airline being talked about is aer lingus with a direct 757 equipment.
lets hope mutterings are correct.watch this space.

I don't think Aer Lingus has any 757s and it would surely dilute the current NYC service via Dublin.

They have a couple of 757-200s leased from Air Contractors (EI-LBS and EI-LBT) which are normally used on transatlantic flights from Shannon. There might be a third 757 but I'm not sure.

 

[forest1979]

So the announcement for Aer Lingus is out there but nothing about Bristol... It did appear to be a bit odd that they would consider this option... Once again it appears that given all the positive noise about this route from BRA management, nothing appears to have come to fruition...!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

So the announcement for Aer Lingus is out there but nothing about Bristol... It did appear to be a bit odd that they would consider this option... Once again it appears that given all the positive noise about this route from BRA management, nothing appears to have come to fruition...!

There is still time for a NYC route to be announced for next year. In April BRS senior management stated they were 'very confident' of bringing back a NYC direct connection with talks then said to be at an 'advanced stage'. They believed then that they came 'very close' to obtaining such a service for this year.

Time and circumstances change of course and airlines may still be awaiting the outcome of the government's decision whether to devolve APD to Wales where the Assembly Government has already said it would reduce the rate to nil.

£71 (£73 from next year) per adult passenger would be a significant sum for airports and airlines to play around with. The options suggested by the government for mitigating the effects to English airports of Scottish and Welsh APD devolution would be no help whatsoever to BRS and, anyway, some of the options appear to be illegal in terms of all but the smallest English airports.

This is the link to the BRS senior management comments last April.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/bre ... c-service/

 

[forest1979]

Ive been reading the Birmingham feed of late with a lot of envy.. They appear to have a done a fantastic job of landing new airlines and routes. A real mixture there now even with some established airlines like Monarch and Flybe with big bases.. Longhaul also appears to be a target for them and the recent announcement of Qatar another great example of the job they are doing. Of course they have near on a million people in the BHX area but stiff competition from MAN up the road makes this recent new route in my opinion quite impressive. It does of course make me think how realistic it could be for the BRS management to land such a route, even if the airline and aircraft type were a good fit. They have talked about a middle eastern route as have we on this forum a number of times but passenger loads, cargo (which BRS are not really a market for) and now the like of BHX landing such routes to me just makes the prospects of it ever happening for Bristol, very much a long shot. Of course there is always Turkish but im not sure they are in a position at the moment to maybe consider BRS. As always, we will wait and see...

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The BHX management with Mr Kehoe at the helm (remember him during his brief dash through BRS as CEO?) has certainly been plucking rabbits from hats as if they are going out of fashion. As you say, the increased Middle East presence, not to mention the additional transatlantic operations, certainly won't help BRS's cause when it come to scheduled long haul aspirations.

You rightly point to the fact that BHX has a much bigger catchment than BRS even though MAN is also a consideration, as is LHR which of course is also the Bristol area's default airport when it comes to long haul. BHX will increasingly become a viable option for West Country long haul travellers which won't have escaped the notice of the main ME and transatlantic airlines who may well decide they have no need to fly from BRS (I used BHX a few years ago en route Down Under and found it very convenient and efficient) .

Probably the main problem though is the restricted size of BRS: short runway; little room to expand as it's surrounded by green belt; no cargo worth bothering about. It's also in the wrong place and surface connectivity is challenging with no prospect of a rail link.

I often think that BRS should concentrate on what it's good at which is serving an array of European and North African routes including numerous business orientated destinations. I think the airport has non-stop connectivity with about 15 European capitals.

I sometimes wonder what sort of an airport Bristol would have now if the city council had been able to relocate to Filton in 1957 when they closed Whitchurch, always assuming that an accommodation could have been reached between the Filton owners and the airport operator. Runway length, size of site and surface accessibility would not be at the top of the list of problems, neither would a rail link with a branch line running through the Filton site and a main line barely a mile away.

Given all the physical problems that BRS throws up I believe that the senior management over recent decades has worked near miracles to be where we are now. A number of regional airports would love to be in BRS's position.

 

[forest1979]

Yes agree on the Filton point, nice to think what could have been. I tend to agree on focusing on what Bristol are good at. We are the envy of alt of regional airports and continuous growth is good. I just hope that Bristol stays competitive with its mix of routes and airlines

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Someone asked on the BRS Twitter page two days ago about a transatlantic service:

is it true that continental airlines are going to open a direct transatlantic route from Bristol?

Airport reply:

we're always looking to deliver new destinations & improve connectivity into the region, and direct New York remains a priority

A standard sort of reply but no expression that they are very confident which is what the airport management was saying earlier in the year. However, they may be being discreet.

 

[Ray Finkle]

It sounds like the standard reply but I think airports are in a difficult position with questions such as this, sometimes I feel it's better to go direct to the airlines. Even then I think too much shouldn't be read into their reply. I asked Wizz about Budapest and got the usual standard reply a couple of weeks before they announced the route. Czech Airlines also said they had 'no plans' for Prague - BHX and have since announced it.

We're quite lucky as Paul Kehoe is quite open on his Twitter account although his 'we'll see' comments are frustratingly vague Does any of the senior BRS management team have a Twitter account?

On the subject of the USA I wonder if BRS have spoken to or are speaking to Norwegian? The 737MAX could be ideal for Bristol to Boston and/or New York and Cork have proven that an operating base is not a necessity. They seem to have big plans for the Trans Atlantic market and I see no reason why BRS couldn't be part of that?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It sounds like the standard reply but I think airports are in a difficult position with questions such as this, sometimes I feel it's better to go direct to the airlines. Even then I think too much shouldn't be read into their reply. I asked Wizz about Budapest and got the usual standard reply a couple of weeks before they announced the route. Czech Airlines also said they had 'no plans' for Prague - BHX and have since announced it.

We're quite lucky as Paul Kehoe is quite open on his Twitter account although his 'we'll see' comments are frustratingly vague Does any of the senior BRS management team have a Twitter account?

On the subject of the USA I wonder if BRS have spoken to or are speaking to Norwegian? The 737MAX could be ideal for Bristol to Boston and/or New York and Cork have proven that a operating base is not a necessity. They seem to have big plans for the Trans Atlantic market and I see no reason why BRS couldn't be part of that?

I'm not aware of any senior BRS manager with a Twitter account. The CEO doesn't appear to have one.

I don't know if you read today's earlier posts in this thread, Ray, but BHX featured and I made the point that it will be an increasing option for West Country scheduled long haul passengers who invariably look to LHR. Even if BRS did get a long haul route or two in the future (and the airport master plan doesn't believe that more than about four lh sched routes would be viable anyway and at present four looks an infinity away) the burgeoning BHX lh portfolio will surely attract some more passengers from the land of the rhotic r.

The point about the 737 MAX is a good one and the aircraft may find a use at airports not large enough catchment-wise to sustain transatlantic services to the east coast on larger aircraft.