Archive Route Development & Rumours

[User001]

Oh there is, but trust me, it's all good!

 

[Dobbo]

Well, the rumours that I can recall are along the following lines:

Emirates - 4th daily
Etihad - 3rd daily
Delta - Detroit
American - Dallas
Air Canada - Toronto
Cathay - Hong Kong daily
Singapore - non-stop
Virgin - LA, Miami, Cape Town
Air China - Shanghai, Chengdu
China Eastern - Guangzhou
Air India - Delhi, Mumbai
Norscoot - Bangkok
Norwegian based operations.

Only other things I can think of are Japan Airlines, the renegade one is BA but I rather suspect this is left field and not one of these?

 

[User001]

You are partly right with one of them, but, that's genuinely all I'm going to say on the matter, and for once I'm going to have to mean it.

This was more of a heads up so when it is announced, I can give the good old 'there's the badger'!

 

[David_itl]

Well VS having been living it large on the Evening News website today with the feature on Virgin Holidays new store in the Trafford Centre with the "quarter of our business here" comment and a feature on the new routes whilst slamming APD and saying ""The airline sees Manchester as a hub with ‘continuing opportunity for growth’."

 

[David_itl]

I suspect the vast majority of that "one stop" traffic from MAN-BKK is carried by Emirates or Etihad

Remember that EK was the market leader for MAN-"somewhere"-HKG. That's not turned out too bad for CX!

 

[Dobbo]

I would not be surprised if it were TG to Bangkok. But any of those listed above would not be a shock.

 

[David_itl]

The thing is with that listing of "rumours" for long-haul, there's nothing there that could readily be described as "big news" apart from someone doing a Bangkok route and if that happened some people would die of shock that a 20 year old rumour finally materialised! EK and EY would be a case of when and not if for expansion, AC have to come to allow Rouge expansion, VS/DL to DTW has been all over the place this year, SQ going non-stop is one of the things they've been earmarking with their A350s, CX going daily is a well known anticipated move, etc.

We could think of something outlandish like South African making a return to MAN from Johannesburg?

 

[Dobbo]

South African is a good shout - and I agree that it would be the sort of unexpected move hinted at. But would it fall under the sane category as SFO or PEK?

My guess is that it is a longstanding rumour that had an obvious reason why it could not happen (e.g. TG/MH issues) that has suddenly gone away.

User - is it a new or returning or existing airline?!

 

[User001]

It's an existing airline, been at MAN a VERY long time, and we will gain 2 non stop routes from the news. And honestly, that's your final clue. Fit that together with the fact I've said one of your guesses was partly right.

 

[justplanecrazy]

Virgin to India and Thailand?

 

[Dobbo]

I think it is Singapore Airlines, and they will make use of US pre-clearance.

Non-Stop to Singapore, with the aircraft continuing to the US (my guess is Houston and they might codeshare with UA). Essentially taking over the present routing via Moscow.

SIN-MAN-IAH-MAN-SIN

This addresses the decoupling of MUC and de-risks MAN becoming a daily non-stop by adding a tag at the other end.

With 5th freedom, MAN gets two routes.

 

[Dobbo]

There is an article noting that Scoot (SQ low cost subsidiary) could take over a number of routes including MAN.

http://centreforaviation.com/analys...e-in-2017-the-worlds-longest-lcc-route-290145

 

[David_itl]

The only problem with Singapore Airlines starting Houston is that it's going to be connecting to a city that's got oil as it's main driver of it's economy - we only have to look at Aberdeen to see how that's been affected by the poor times the oil industry is going through there. It would be very strange for them to launch that route from here. Scoot replacing SQ may make a bit more sense as they could then develop the volume to compete with the ME3. Throw in NokScoot going to Bangkok then we can pull the pieces: big news from a long-serving carrier (= we will stop MAN in our name) but add 2 non-stop routes using our low-cost subsidiaries (Scoot and NokScoot)

 

[Land23R]

I wonder what constitutes a "VERY" long time - 20 years (VS); 25 years (EK/DL); 30 years (SQ; AA), or longer?
Don't think we've established it's a legacy carrier so TOM and TCX also come to mind, but would that be very big news?

If DOBBO was partly right, is it the airline but different routes, or the routes but a different airline, or a crossover with both routes and airline mentioned (VS to India would come into that last category in DOBBO's original list, but is that likely?)

A nice puzzle indeed User001!

Must admit SQ in some form was my initial thought given the data about unserved BKK.

I do worry about MAN-USA potential given the current fall in the £ against the dollar and the fact that MAN's pax are predominantly UK originating, so I would rule out an American legacy except maybe the DL/VS partnership.

Until BREXIT, sterling had risen against the Rand so SA might be possible but which airline?

BA - it just seems so unlikely but you never know.

 

[Dobbo]

Scoot does make some sense, but I fear it would pretty much kill off SQ's operation from MAN and you would find passengers switching to any one of a number of other airlines.

 

[User001]

Singapore is going nowhere, I can promise you that.

 

[Land23R]

I wasn't ruling out SQ mainline - maybe a through route across the pond to the USA as has been suggested, or even Canada.

If we are looking at it from the standpoint of potential destinations, Bangkok and India would seem the most likely.
However, as others have mentioned (and has maybe happened with the US capacity increase), to what extent would new direct flights generate new business as opposed to diluting the carryings of current 1 stop services. But if the existing traffic to such places is spread among a number of carriers via their hubs, then the impact is less critical.

 

[Dobbo]

Singapore is going nowhere, I can promise you that.

Good to hear.

 

[User001]

I've been informed I could be able to inform you all a bit later on today. Just waiting for verification.

 

[Dobbo]

I've been informed I could be able to inform you all a bit later on today. Just waiting for verification.

Wonder if that means we've guessed it between us in our ramblings...