Archive Route Development & Rumours

[EGCC_MAN]

Since writing the above 15 minutes ago I've received another e.mail (as opposed to banner-ad) from Vueling promoting flights from AMS to PMI, MIN and IBZ. They're actually prolific advertisers via their preferred channels!

 

[Philbky]

There is little chance of Ethiopian serving MAN with a stopover to the USA. They are firmly entrenched in DUB with fifth freedom rights and are picking up US bound pax in opposition to other carriers

 

[ethanegcc]

If you look at the major markets/hubs going east there are very few that remain unserved. The top tier frkm MAN would probably be (in no particular order):

• BKK
• PVG
• TYO
• BOM
• DEL

I would expect MAN to start ticking these off reasonably quickly. In terms of the next tier, id say these are a bit further off for a number of reasons but include:

• KUL
• ICN
• TPA
• CAN

I would say you are very close on that one, but I would order them very slightly differently. Although TPA isn't in the top tier but Thomas Cook could be very close to starting a MAN-Tampa route, possibly for Summer 2018, if their TATL routes perform well this year.

In terms of the list, I would put it like this (in terms of benefit for MAN):
-TYO (Narita)
-PVG
-BOM
-BKK
-CAN
-DEL
-ICN
-TPA
-KUL

In terms of actual probability and how far off the routes are:
-BKK
-PVG
-TPA
-BOM
-DEL
-TYO
-CAN
-ICN
-KUL

I would also add Addis Ababa in there for an African hub (or possibly Nairobi) and I would hope the up and coming CPT route quickly expands.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Great to see you on here, Philbky. For those who are unaware, Philbky was one of the best-informed contributors to another well-known forum before it morphed into trollcreche central. His experience in the industry working alongside the top executives of the Manchester Airport PLC era gives him insight beyond most in the industry. I know that he will be a valuable addition to F4A. Welcome!

 

[Dobbo]

Welcome Philbky good to have you on board.

 

[Philbky]

Thanks for the welcome. Very flattered. I hope I can contribute in a worthwhile way.

 

[Aceshigh]

Totally agree...

Fantastic addition and can provide real aviation insight !

Trollcrech centrals loss , is F4As gain !

 

[Dobbo]

There is little chance of Ethiopian serving MAN with a stopover to the USA. They are firmly entrenched in DUB with fifth freedom rights and are picking up US bound pax in opposition to other carriers

Yes, this arrangement certainly seems to work well for ET and DUB.

ADD was held up as a potential new route for MAN, with USPC (and I suspect a larger potential market than DUB) this seemed to be a possibility at least.

Aside from the surrent transit operators, my best guess for a transit flight would be MH or NZ.

 

[Land23R]

Just catching up so a belated welcome from me Philbky. I recall your time in Manchester well.

Tend to agree with Dobbo that MH or NZ would seem to be the possible candidates, but to which ultimate destination(s). LAX was once mentioned for ANZ at MAN but in that instance wouldn't MAN be where the a/c terminated and LAX be the transit point. HKG would be very unlikely now but that was also mentioned at one time with HKG being the transit airport.

MH would be different presumably with MAN being the intermediate stop to the USA or Canada.

 

[Dobbo]

Yes, NZ would be the end of the line for a route from AKL - most likely over LAX or SFO. This would be a change from their Pacific rim policy, but that was under the old management. If they wanted a second route to Europe it would most likely be between FRA and MAN.

MH would most likely be in between KUL and North America (almost certainly JFK). As with SQ, it would be a way of accessing a lucrative market (JFK) and supporting/resurrecting an otherwise marginal route (MAN).

Vietnam is an interesting one. MEB3 territory, but obviously large passenger flows. Suspect the issue would be yield.

 

[ethanegcc]

A route to Vietnam is actually viable, similar to Thailand, but actually Thai and Vietnam airlines run flights that are just for tourism reasons with business class and they do fine so I think the yield issue is one being blown up. Thai are in a good position to launch MAN flights and with Malaysian back on the growth, a MAN transit could be an option. If they really wanted to they could do KUL-AMS-MAN, thus restoring two routes! A fifth freedom on that would be interesting!

 

[Philbky]

There are a number of problems for Air New Zealand should they wish to serve MAN. The current NZ1/2 rotation over Los Angeles to and from London has never generated enough traffic in 35 years to warrant an additional rotation. The service is popular, could often be full well before any given departure date but never consistently potentially overbooked to warrant another flight.

There has been repeated talk of a service westbound into MAN, eastbound out. The question never satisfactorily answered is where the needed intermediate stop would be giving the airline potential traffic to and from that stop. If a flight to MAN were to operate over the USA, then then extension of one of the west coast or the Hawaiian service would be logical as ANZ has rights for traffic between the US and UK and vice versa but my first point now comes into play.

The next problem is equipment. A New Zealand to UK rotation takes up to 26 hours. To have a viable service more than one flight a week would be required. To maintain a more than twice a week rotation, two aircraft would be required. Given their fleet usage, this militates for an extension of a current US terminating service.

Even if the above can be overcome the biggest problem for MAN is its ME3 success. Primarily Emirates, but now also Qatar have New Zealand traffic ex MAN pretty well stitched up, as they do ex Heathrow. Emirates offer three times a day flights to Dubai. Many people make a stopover and then there are four options to Auckland a day on A380s, one direct, the others calling at Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane respectively. Christchurch is also served by A380 daily. There are also direct connections to some of these flights with short transfers in Dubai.

Qatar has started a non stop Doha to Auckland service with connections from MAN. This puts another nail in the coffin of a service from MAN.

New Zealand used to have a large VFR potential, similar to Canada but just as has happened with that traffic, it has reduced significantly in recent years. New Zealand has a similar population to Ireland. Its tourism outbound is primarily to the Pacific islands, Australia, South East Asia and the west coast of the USA. The airlines flying to New Zealand from elsewhere pretty much depend on visitors to New Zealand. The ethnic mix is changing with a growing Chinese population, growing Chinese investment and two way tourism. Five years ago no Chinese airline served Auckland. Two now do so, and are booked solid, more are in the pipeline and ANZ is looking to serve more Chinese cities. Even with just that in mind, MAN must be well down the airline's list of priorities.

 

[Dobbo]

I know NZ1/2 is essentially two seperate flights. If you look at CAA stats, they only have 1,500 or so passengers a month LHR-AKLvv.

Any flight to MAN would have to be a different model based on the following:

1. Solid O&D AKL-MAN to support AKL-LAX/SFO/YVR/ORD-MAN.
2. Good onward connections at the MAN end in the UK and Europe.
3. Aircraft availability - I think it would need a B789.

I don't think it is beyond the realms, but just as QF have a partnership with EK, NZ have a partnership with SQ. They would probably be better off leveraging that through IAH and SIN to MAN (although I gather IAH is the principle route to JFK from AKL).

 

[Philbky]

The direct AKL-IAH flight is operated by a specially modified 777-200, from the same small pool of 200srs modified for the 300 minutes ETOPS flight to Santiago from Auckland. I had intended using that from IAH to AKL but my plans changed and I went via Hawaii instead. I did find out that the flight is getting 80-90% load factors at present, so not much room for growth there. With the 767-300s now gone the current 787-9 fleet is stretched at present.

 

[Dobbo]

For sure, if they can get AKL-IAH daily (possibly on a B77W?) they may have capacity.

If they want more capacity to Europe, they have three most likely options. LHR, FRA, MAN:

• LHR - they would be better aiming for another west coast route rather than vis HKG. Query whether they would be better going via SFO or YVR. Could they get suitable slots as the ones leased to CX are probably not suitable.
• FRA - perhaps they would be better going via HKG to here? This is less likely on a west coast routing.
• MAN - probably a west coast route as this would be the first point of Europe following TATL crossing.

I think they have brought forward some B789 deliveries and have something like 5/6 more on order. We don't know what they will do to replace the B772.

 

[Philbky]

Judging from information from my family contacts in middle and senior management at ANZ, their 772s are likely to be around for a good while, the oldest being just over 11 years old. With the 767-300s gone, the 772s will be dedicated to the Pacific islands, Australia and S E Asia, with exception of those converted for 300 mins ETOPS, and will be mixed with the 787-9s across those routes. The 772s are being upgraded internally as well as being painted in the new livery.

 

[User001]

I'm afraid that despite all the rumours, ANZ is just one airline I don't ever see serving MAN barring diversions.

It's a route that has similar demographics to BKK and SYD, and those routes have a much much higher volume, so, if we can't get BKK and SYD served, no chance of AKL in my opinion.

 

[Dobbo]

I share @Philbky and @User001 sentiments that ANZ is unlikely in the near term. However, as things stand, I don't agree that it is a case of lining it up after BKK, SYD or any other unserved market.

ANZ would see AKL-MAN as no greater than 1/3 of the puzzle. Inevitably, any service would be an extension of an existing North American flight. The key would be whether (say) LAX/SFO/YVR-MAN sector stacked up economically.

In terms of BKK, we think this will be served in the next year or two.

SYD (and also MEL) are interesting comparators:

• First, they cannot be served non stop and as that is the case there are a variety of one stop options including CX, SQ, HU, EK, EY, QR. The same applies to AKL but with fewer options.
• Second, the only airline that might make a direct (one stop) service is in bed with EK on a successful codeshare. NZ's with SQ is clearly much less successful and NZ might have cause to return to Europe (not LHR).
• Third, I don't agree that the VFR market to Australasia has declined like Canada. I think it remains strong with significant two way flows.
• Fourth, the key would be the MAN-North america sector. As with IAH, it would be supported by MAN-AKL flows. This may allow ANZ to develop a strong monopoly position in a growing marketplace (eg MAN-LAX) which may be buoyed by the growing media and technology clusters in the north of England.

Food for thought at least!

 

[IanFarquharson]

BA to investment in Manchester

British Airways has announced investment plans that include onboard wifi, Club Europe on domestic flights and revamped lounges in the UK and US.
The airline’s chairman and CEO, Alex Cruz, unveiled the plans on a charter flight from Gatwick to Heathrow on Tuesday.
There will be £400 million invested in BA’s long-haul business class Club World, which includes new catering options, breakfast extended in the lounge until 11am and a “revamped service approach”.
These changes will launch on the Heathrow-New York service before being rolled out across the rest of the long-haul network during 2018.
The new lounge complex at Gatwick’s South Terminal sees 40 per cent more floorspace than its lounge in the North Terminal. An investment of £88 million is planned on lounge facilities in the US – Terminal 7 at JFK will receive over £52 million and Boston’s new lounge has just opened, coinciding with the A380 starting on the Heathrow-Boston route. Next year Aberdeen and Rome's lounges will be revamped, and Geneva will be expanded. Further investment is planned in San Francisco, Johannesburg, Manchester and Chicago.
British Airways is installing wifi across its long-haul network from April with short-haul to be rolled out later this year. The aim is to offer 4G connectivity across 90 per cent of its fleet by 2019.
There will be two options: Simply Connect, which supports basic web browsing, email and instant messaging and starts at £4.99, and Connect Plus, which starts at £7.99 and provides faster connection to support video streaming.
The airline said it will become the first UK carrier to introduce biometric technology at Heathrow with the launch of self-service boarding gates.
BA has also launched its new ‘First Wing’ check-in area for First customers at Heathrow Terminal 5. It includes a two-lane security channel and direct access to the Galleries First lounge and Concorde Room.
BA’s Cruz said: "It's simple really – we need to deliver what our customers value most, where they value it most. We need to focus on enhancing premium - offering contemporary service, improved catering and lounges and a consistent experience. In economy, where we know that price is the driver, we need to focus our efforts on delivering more seats at the lowest fares and giving customers choices."

 

[User001]

The BA lounge investment will come when they move to T2.

They won't spend money on something that now has a very limited lifespan, but I've heard a few MAN based airlines will really up their lounge game once T2 re-opens.