Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

When you think about late departure banks from the U.K. the following destinations/routes spring to mind:

1. Australia and New Zealand (via any number of destinations).
2. Middle East (short overnight flight to arrive in the morning).
3. Japan
4. Korea
5. China
6. The Indian Sub-Continent
7. South Africa
8. South America

I don't doubt there are more. As the focus in the coming years will be on routes to - at least - several of the above destinations I'm sure we will see the late departure banks start to fill up. Who knows, we may yet see something more from existing carriers.

 

[User001]

Someone tried to make the Malaysian A380 charter bookable. Just added in last 24 hours haha:

 

[David_itl]

I'm sure this will be moved along in due course, but I hope this gives an idea of what routes could operate post midday. This is the FR24 breakdown of LHR arrivals by non-British airlines broken into various regions (not including Europe). Some routes have been "artificially" put into a region for ease of display.

Very unlikely for us to get any North American evening arrivals but it's the Asia/India ones that could be interesting. Perhap 5 years times we'd have:

17:00 NH221 Tokyo All Nippon 788
18:00 HU7905 Shanghai Hainan B788
18:00 KE915 Seoul Korean Air A332
18:30 UK100 Mumbai Vistara A350
19:30 TG950 Bangkok Thai A359

 

[Dobbo]

Like it, I would add:

• 16:00 Kuwait KU B77W/A332
• 18:00 Guangzhou HU A333

What about gulf air, or a late flight from CX or SQ?

 

[EGCC_MAN]

An interesting aside from that list is that only one of those services still sees Boeing 747 equipment used (KAL907 - B748). Also just one A340 (PAL720). And the dominance of widebodied twinjets is complete. Of course, the large BA fleet (36 examples still in service) will mean that the iconic Jumbo remains a familiar sight at LHR for a while longer yet.

 

[Dobbo]

It'll be interesting to see whether the B779X takes much A380 market share. Given the sunk costs in the A380, I'm sure there is a market for an existing, NEO and stretch version of the aircraft moving forwards.

However, you just need to look at the number of B787 and A350 aircraft starting to use MAN to see that the hub buster concept is starting feed through into airline route planning.

 

[Coathanger16]

However, you just need to look at the number of B787 and A350 aircraft starting to use MAN to see that the hub buster concept is starting feed through into airline route planning.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but how exactly have the B787 and A350 acted as hub busters at Manchester? Unless I'm mistaken, pretty much every route currently using one of those 2 aircraft started before on a previous aircraft. Singapore and Cathay both started on B777 before going to A350. Hainan started as A330 before going B787.

One other point. Heathrow - a hub - has the largest concentration of B787/A350 of any UK airport. Doesn't exactly sound like a hub buster to me!

Some people like to make the point that the B787 is a hub buster by referencing Norwegian long haul at Gatwick. However they conveniently overlook the fact that Norwegian said if Gatwick were to expand, they'd base 50 B787 there alongside 100 B737, the idea being their short haul fleet could feed passengers onto their long haul fleet - i.e. a HUB!

 

[ethanegcc]

I don't think that the 787 and the A350 have changed the nature of the hub and spoke model. They have simply connected long thin routes to major hubs e.g. MSY-LHR

 

[Dobbo]

I think @Coathanger16 makes a fair point.

What I would say is that the A350 and B787 seems to have made the likes of CX, SQ, HU (and hopefully in time the likes of TG, ANA) viable as daily routes.

Obviously SQ are not there yet, but the improved economics seems to make what would otherwise be marginal calls easier to make.

 

[ethanegcc]

After today's announcement of Seattle, here is a look at our transatlantic network up to summer 2018:

Looking geographically, good adds would be:
-Minneapolis
-Calgary (maybe Air Transat could be persuaded to return; Canada is a growing tourist market at the moment from the UK)
-San Diego
-New Orleans
-Salt Lake City

Could these be candidates for Thomas Cook's seeming expansion, along with possibly TPA?

 

[Dobbo]

Possibly for the route rumours thread, but Denver and Detroit.

That there are (presumably) Americans on dark blue dot net in places like San Diego, Detroit, Tampa, who really want a route to MAN is great to see.

You'd never have seen that a year or two ago. It's incredible.

 

[David_itl]

It's got to be down to the TCX effect. For an airline to be consistently introducing new routes and boosting frequencies at the "unknown" airport must make them look at why they are doing this. Yes, a major airline may be good but their cost structures can be a hindrance and it's down to the new entrants flying from alternative gateways that may propel greater growth for the secondary US cities.

 

[Dobbo]

Thought I'd comment on a few existing routes where we may see changes (for better or worse!) and some possible new routes. Usual caveat is that I know nothing - I had no idea Seattle was coming for example.

Existing Routes

• New York - a major question over the next 12 months will be UA. Do they remain committed to the market at MAN, and in what way. Equally, the seasonal nature of VS and AA's JFK routes will be under the spotlight next winter. There is not much each can do about the seasonal nature of the route, but I'd hope to see some cautious expansion in W19.
• San Francisco - the market is clearly proven in the summer months. However, it is obvious that TCX intend to force VS off the route. I hope VS stick at it, it would be great to have two airlines fly to the west coast, but TCX's business model gives them a significant advantage.
• Los Angeles - once we hoped to see VS on the route. Now, I think we can expect to see TCX expand by 1 rotation a year in the summer, and perhaps experiment with longer seasons.
• Toronto - this is a prime route for AC mainline. Id hope to see them return before too long, including a winter programme.
• Vancouver - as with Toronto, I'd hope to see expansion here next summer. Probably a seasonal only route, but we had expected Rouge which never materialised.
• Singapore/Houston - given the recent success Id hope this goes daily before too long. I hear SQ plan something left field, so I'll keep an eye on that also. They must have picked up cargo business following EK going all A380.
• Hong Kong - CX finally go daily. Will they continue to press on with their plans at MAN and go more than daily? Or will they be happy to see how the route performs for the time being? As with SQ, they must have picked up some cargo business following EK going all A380.
• Beijing - I'm curious about this one. Are they reducing rotations this winter or just going back to the A333? I'm not sure. Also, how will Guangzhou affect their plans and possibly Shanghai? All to be revealed I suspect...

New Routes
I have ignored the rumoured TCX routes to Tampa, San Diego and New Orleans.

• Kuwait (Washington?) - will KU get their act together and start this route? It has been widely speculated in the local Kuwait media (and I think name-checked by the airline) so this does seem to be in the pipeline. It would help confidence if Oman's numbers pick up.
• Tehran - will Iran ever open up again?
• Addis Abba - Ethiopian have a strong African network, and are well placed to act as an African hub. Will they get involved at Manchester given their large presence at DUB?
• Cape Town - you can count out SAA, but what about TCX? They have limited charter flights, but as a winter seasonal route, also served by Condor, this fits the blueprint. Assuming VS have struggled with SFO/BOS I don't think we will see them on this route, and their ambitions and presence at MAN has to be in question given the AF/KLM tie up.
• Bombay - who will take this one on. Vistara? Scoot? Jet? Air India? VS? I find it difficult to imagine this will be unserved in two years time, even accounting for the MEB3's vast passenger flows to India.
• Bangkok - TG's to loose, but another one for TCX to consider if not?
• Guangzhou - HU have applied for the route. Will they deliver, and how will it affect PEK?
• Shanghai - I've given up on this. Hainan, Air China - I don't even know who has the rights to the route!
• Seoul - supposedly MAN-ICN is around the critical mass in terms of passengers and cargo to sustain a 3/4x weekly route. Might the next far east route be flown by KE?
• Tokyo - most likely one of the big two from Japan, but can MAN sustain a route which requires high yields all year and typically sees a daily service? Would hurt Finnair's business at MAN, that's for sure.
• Kuala Lumpur - Air Asia X? Malaysian? This remains a popular route, but who can make a non-stop work?
• Moscow - a big gap but in the present political climate, doubtful.

 

[ethanegcc]

Completely agree with you, regarding Shanghai. Might as well put that aside for now, even though the market is obvious.

For Hainan, I think we just have to wait and see. They are announcing new routes for winter 2017 very quickly, including some European routes out of Guangzhou. They seem to have very quick lead in times for new routes and service changes. Remaining at 4x weekly A333 wouldn't necessarily surprise me for this winter though.

On all other points, I have no knowledge. Perhaps we can hear from those more knowledgeable and possibly some new rumours?!

 

[Aceshigh]

I wouldn't hold my breath on Incheon.

Could SIA be shifting FRA JFK to Manchester there seems to be a swirl of rumours doing the rounds !

 

[User001]

Tunisair to launch 2 weekly TUN and 1 weekly MIR next summer. More details soon.

 

[ethanegcc]

Tunisair to launch 2 weekly TUN and 1 weekly MIR next summer. More details soon.

Would work well but haven't we been here before? Tunisair 'announced' the route and never followed through

 

[User001]

The main difference is, Brits can travel freely again with no FO advice against travel.

 

[ethanegcc]

The main difference is, Brits can travel freely again with no FO advice against travel.

Yes, the route should work better now tourism and ethnic traffic is supported.

Will it be A320? 330 was announced and got me very excited!

 

[User001]

Will be a B737(-500 I think?) on the TUN and an A320 on MIR from the info I have seen.