Archive Route Development & Rumours
- Thread starter lbaspotter
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Thread archived by the site administrator
- Status
Do you have any information about a possible BA return too long haul ex-MAN? Chicago is bookable for daily 767 next year from 25th March already on AA; Philadelphia obviously runs year-round. JFK not available yet.
David_itl
Well-Known Member
- Jan 31, 2016
- 2,097
- 193
- 58
Bangkok/Shanghai/India need to be on the priority of MAN's team and it seems they are. Shanghai has gone ridiculously quiet, and I am quickly losing hope in Air China. Can anyone on the forum provide us with an updated position on the likelihood of Bangkok with Thai and, more particularly, Shanghai with CA?
Dobbo
New Member
- Oct 27, 2015
- 0
- 0
I assume they mean average loads. In fairness, it would be extraordinary for all loads to be above 75/80% from MAN...
Interesting that Air Asia X to KUL is not mentioned (I don't think I've missed it) and Ethiopian has also vanished, together with Detroit & San Diego in the US, and Cape Town & Johannesburg in South Africa.
No mention of Tokyo either, despite the call a few months ago.
There plainly is ambition, which is to be commended, but the key remains to get the infrastructure right. This means the terminal facilities, surface access, parking, airfield and support facilities. Get this right and the carchment will continue to gravitate to MAN as opposed to any of the other UK and European hubs.
Interesting that Air Asia X to KUL is not mentioned (I don't think I've missed it) and Ethiopian has also vanished, together with Detroit & San Diego in the US, and Cape Town & Johannesburg in South Africa.
No mention of Tokyo either, despite the call a few months ago.
There plainly is ambition, which is to be commended, but the key remains to get the infrastructure right. This means the terminal facilities, surface access, parking, airfield and support facilities. Get this right and the carchment will continue to gravitate to MAN as opposed to any of the other UK and European hubs.
Dobbo
New Member
- Oct 27, 2015
- 0
- 0
Indeed - if you look at the ones which came off last year there is only really Houston and Oman, both of which I think were common knowledge at the time of the article.
Cape Town have 2 (?) charter flights and that's it.
Obviously USPC will make a difference to flights to the USA, but that is a couple of years away still.
Cape Town have 2 (?) charter flights and that's it.
Obviously USPC will make a difference to flights to the USA, but that is a couple of years away still.
User001
New Member
- Jul 16, 2015
- 0
- 0
I just genuinely pay no attention to them now to be honest.
Also, route development is a very secretive and lucrative business, airports that are close to securing a route are hardly going to go round screaming such news so that a competing airport can come and swoop in with a lower offer/better deal, like Dublin did to MAN with Norwegian.
Also, route development is a very secretive and lucrative business, airports that are close to securing a route are hardly going to go round screaming such news so that a competing airport can come and swoop in with a lower offer/better deal, like Dublin did to MAN with Norwegian.
Where has all this KUL rumour arisen from anyway? Whilst it would be great to get a link to Malaysia again, aren't Air Asia X very much in the same club as Norwegian and Qatar for 'talking the talk, but not walking the walk'? I am very sceptical about this.
As for the wishlist, it's just media attention but when the last one was released, people did say 'there's a reason each destination is on there'. SAN and DTW have most likely been taken off because of the Brexit issues and so called 'Trump Slump'. Detroit was seen as very likely at that stage. As for the others, re Addis Ababa, this isn't really a list. It contains three destinations and is clearly outlining general goals rather than specific destinations and isn't in the slightest as detailed as previous lists so I wouldn't take that into account too much.
As for US loads being 75-80%, I don't believe it is nonsense. This is an average for all flights, not specific flights on certain low travel days and periods, where an A319 would be 'more suitable'. Yes, I am sure that holiday orientated destinations will be quiet in the middle of term time and Tuesdays will be quiet for business routes but this isn't an average. Loads can be extremely good on busy days/school holidays and this will balance out the quitter days, leaving us with a satisfactory result of around 75%. Let's also remember that it isn't just SFO and BOS that the article is talking about, note 'all US flights'. We have some very solid load factors on some routes which will clearly account to this number. A slight exaggeration of the load factors and positive noises is better than no noises at all and, whilst there is still lots of time to go for changes to be made still, the biggest noise so far is Virgin making SFO and BOS bookable for next year.
As for the wishlist, it's just media attention but when the last one was released, people did say 'there's a reason each destination is on there'. SAN and DTW have most likely been taken off because of the Brexit issues and so called 'Trump Slump'. Detroit was seen as very likely at that stage. As for the others, re Addis Ababa, this isn't really a list. It contains three destinations and is clearly outlining general goals rather than specific destinations and isn't in the slightest as detailed as previous lists so I wouldn't take that into account too much.
As for US loads being 75-80%, I don't believe it is nonsense. This is an average for all flights, not specific flights on certain low travel days and periods, where an A319 would be 'more suitable'. Yes, I am sure that holiday orientated destinations will be quiet in the middle of term time and Tuesdays will be quiet for business routes but this isn't an average. Loads can be extremely good on busy days/school holidays and this will balance out the quitter days, leaving us with a satisfactory result of around 75%. Let's also remember that it isn't just SFO and BOS that the article is talking about, note 'all US flights'. We have some very solid load factors on some routes which will clearly account to this number. A slight exaggeration of the load factors and positive noises is better than no noises at all and, whilst there is still lots of time to go for changes to be made still, the biggest noise so far is Virgin making SFO and BOS bookable for next year.
- Moderator
- #1,433
Where are the pax coming from to fill all these extra services "wished for"?
User001
New Member
- Jul 16, 2015
- 0
- 0
Re: US flights.
You dont believe it's nonsense, well, I do.
Colette specifically said 'all our US flights are going out over 75-80% full'. To me, that's not an average, that's a statement of 'every flight'. If you say 'all' of something, you are saying everything. Including BOS and SFO means it is included in the 'all' statement and therefore it's not true that 'all' flights are going out at least 75% full.
I can tell you now, some of the BOS/SFO loads have been shocking, one BOS went out with 67 people, and apart from the inaugural 2 flights, not one single SFO outbound has reached the 200 pax Mark, and if they average 80% for the month I'd be genuinely shocked.
You dont believe it's nonsense, well, I do.
Colette specifically said 'all our US flights are going out over 75-80% full'. To me, that's not an average, that's a statement of 'every flight'. If you say 'all' of something, you are saying everything. Including BOS and SFO means it is included in the 'all' statement and therefore it's not true that 'all' flights are going out at least 75% full.
I can tell you now, some of the BOS/SFO loads have been shocking, one BOS went out with 67 people, and apart from the inaugural 2 flights, not one single SFO outbound has reached the 200 pax Mark, and if they average 80% for the month I'd be genuinely shocked.
If that is indeed what it was implying, then it is indeed complete hyperbole. Even our most solid US flights on the quietest times of the year/quietest days are lower than that. However, 'all' could also mean an average of all the US flights, and if that is the case, then it is certainly realistic and encouraging.
I also don't doubt your information at all, and I believe you that some of the BOS flights have probably been extremely low but it isn't high season for BOS and that flight could well have been on a Wednesday in the middle of school terms which would have made a great difference. One flight does not represent the overall picture and whilst load factors may not be great, the average is almost certainly better than 67pax. When I posted that my inbound PHL flight had no seats available and was completely full, I was told 'that doesn't represent the overall picture' to paraphrase, and this is the exact same but vice versa.
Aceshigh
Well-Known Member
- Nov 24, 2015
- 782
- 63
Must confess , if loads are so low I'm at a loss as to why they are already in the GDS for next year ?
Would they not wait and see OR are yields good AKA LHR.
Plus lets be fair we are only a month in, that said I concede they could be a lot better.
I did tackle MAN about the lack of advertising traction compared to say Biejing, the answer came back that they were all over Facebook, the MAN page.
With all due respect I think it needs a wee bit more effort than that and YET AGAIN focus is on Mancunians GOING to the US.
I appreciate Americans are blinkered re UK and epecially when it comes to London but Thomas Cook managed to get their service in the San Franscisco media. Manchester can of course piggy babk on that but why not the Airport in its own right ?
MAN seem to treat almost every route as a one way Coronation St !
Just 20 US originating pax per day per service who currently use a myriad of frequency from right across the US would make a massive difference but they need to actually engage with airports and their affiliates plus media / business at the US end not just the Mancs from Urmston, Didsbury and Ashton etc !
Would they not wait and see OR are yields good AKA LHR.
Plus lets be fair we are only a month in, that said I concede they could be a lot better.
I did tackle MAN about the lack of advertising traction compared to say Biejing, the answer came back that they were all over Facebook, the MAN page.
With all due respect I think it needs a wee bit more effort than that and YET AGAIN focus is on Mancunians GOING to the US.
I appreciate Americans are blinkered re UK and epecially when it comes to London but Thomas Cook managed to get their service in the San Franscisco media. Manchester can of course piggy babk on that but why not the Airport in its own right ?
MAN seem to treat almost every route as a one way Coronation St !
Just 20 US originating pax per day per service who currently use a myriad of frequency from right across the US would make a massive difference but they need to actually engage with airports and their affiliates plus media / business at the US end not just the Mancs from Urmston, Didsbury and Ashton etc !
Last edited:
Have been away for a week but I notice that roverman on pprune - who seems to be a knowledgeable and informed source - also casts doubt on there being room for both TCX and VS next year on SFO.
And I do think User001 is correct about the reported quote from Collette Roche. On a number of days earlier in May, looking at seat plans shortly before SDT for AA, DL, & UA, it was United who had decent loads with the smaller a/c and some of those outbound were in the 80-90% range. AA varied from as low as 50% to 75%-80% on certain routes on a good day. Over 5 days, I would estimate not more than 65% was perhaps average. DL from memory might also have averaged 75-80%. We are told loads on VS to SFO and BOS have not been great so it would take a lot of near 100% loads on MCO, ATL and LAS plus the TCX flights to reach even an average of 75-80%, but the quote was "all our US flights".
Incidentally, a smaller look at inbound loads was no better.
And I do think User001 is correct about the reported quote from Collette Roche. On a number of days earlier in May, looking at seat plans shortly before SDT for AA, DL, & UA, it was United who had decent loads with the smaller a/c and some of those outbound were in the 80-90% range. AA varied from as low as 50% to 75%-80% on certain routes on a good day. Over 5 days, I would estimate not more than 65% was perhaps average. DL from memory might also have averaged 75-80%. We are told loads on VS to SFO and BOS have not been great so it would take a lot of near 100% loads on MCO, ATL and LAS plus the TCX flights to reach even an average of 75-80%, but the quote was "all our US flights".
Incidentally, a smaller look at inbound loads was no better.
Given the previous comments about loads to the US by Ms Roche and the different interpretations of what she said or meant to say, I couldn't resist a look at this morning's loads for the US carriers. I appreciate seat plans even an hour or so before take off may not be the spot-on final load but I think they are a fair indication. There may be late allocations of seats but on the other hand some of the seats shown as not available may be security or other staff members rather than fare paying passengers. Just for fun, I looked at return loads Sunday evening from the US, a few days off and therefore less accurate of the final count. Outbound today first and then the return.
UA - EWR 76%; 78%
AA - ORD 70%; 74%
AA - JFK 83%; 63%
AA - PHL 55%; 68%
DL - JFK 80%; 52%
One or two decent or respectable loads among them so not a disaster by any means (yields being the crucial measure of course). If anyone has actual numbers for today's outbounds, I'd be very interested to compare with the seat map figures.
A point of note was that for Sunday evening's ORD-MAN, business class with its 28 seats was showing completely full
and only 4 seats available on the JFK-MAN in J class.
Aceshigh makes a very good point on the General thread about the £ now back to $1.30. When the 20% fall in the value of sterling was banded around, I assume it was based on $1.50 down to $1.20, although a fairer reflection might have been 1.47 to 1.21. Nevertheless, as a broad brush indicator, it wasn't unreasonable. For the pound to have recovered 1/3 of that perceived 30 cents fall is quite significant, not least in terms of dollar fuel prices paid for in pounds by UK airlines, but also in spending power for UK tourists in the US. Whether that trend will continue or not, or will help to revitalise the US market is another matter.
In terms of route development to the US, I feel we still need to see some stability and whether new services in the last couple of years to MIA, LAX, BOS & SFO can get firmly established, before those past rumoured routes to Detroit, San Diego and Tampa can be seriously considered.
UA - EWR 76%; 78%
AA - ORD 70%; 74%
AA - JFK 83%; 63%
AA - PHL 55%; 68%
DL - JFK 80%; 52%
One or two decent or respectable loads among them so not a disaster by any means (yields being the crucial measure of course). If anyone has actual numbers for today's outbounds, I'd be very interested to compare with the seat map figures.
A point of note was that for Sunday evening's ORD-MAN, business class with its 28 seats was showing completely full
and only 4 seats available on the JFK-MAN in J class.
Aceshigh makes a very good point on the General thread about the £ now back to $1.30. When the 20% fall in the value of sterling was banded around, I assume it was based on $1.50 down to $1.20, although a fairer reflection might have been 1.47 to 1.21. Nevertheless, as a broad brush indicator, it wasn't unreasonable. For the pound to have recovered 1/3 of that perceived 30 cents fall is quite significant, not least in terms of dollar fuel prices paid for in pounds by UK airlines, but also in spending power for UK tourists in the US. Whether that trend will continue or not, or will help to revitalise the US market is another matter.
In terms of route development to the US, I feel we still need to see some stability and whether new services in the last couple of years to MIA, LAX, BOS & SFO can get firmly established, before those past rumoured routes to Detroit, San Diego and Tampa can be seriously considered.
- Status
Similar threads
Remove Advertisements
Subscribe to help support your favourite forum and in return we'll remove all our advertisements. Your contribution will help to pay for things like site maintenance, domain name renewals and annual server charges.
Trending Hashtags
-
#LiverpoolJohnLennonWeight: 2
-
#liverpoolairportWeight: 2
-
#Jet2Weight: 2
-
#REGENWeight: 1
-
#laviationWeight: 1
-
#EasyJetWeight: 1