Archive Route Development & Rumours

[rollo]

So,

After the UK-India bilateral was increased and airlines told 'look beyond Heathrow to use the new slots' Jet Airways has added a 3rd daily flight into Heathrow, you know, the airport that is supposedly full.

Makes my blood boil!

Hello User,

I've only recently joined in on this site posting on BHX but I agree it is nuts that no direct services from MAN to India operate
I have a similar gripe about flights to Florida from Brum.

Heathrow has been full for years but somehow always gets another slice of the cake!

 

[Dobbo]

Of course Jet also have Etihad to think about for now. It still seems odd that MAN-BOM is unserved, but there are a number of airlines who may wish to look at this market in the coming years.

 

[Seasider]

So,

After the UK-India bilateral was increased and airlines told 'look beyond Heathrow to use the new slots' Jet Airways has added a 3rd daily flight into Heathrow, you know, the airport that is supposedly full.

Makes my blood boil!

Maybe they have bought a pair of slots from another airline?

 

[rutamkrd]

Maybe they have bought a pair of slots from another airline?

in all probability borrowed from new friends KLM Cityhopper and their afternoon baby sitting operations - One less EMJ/F70 flight - they have still one or two that land mid afternoon and lull about for several hours in T4 before returning to Amsterdam for little commercial reason I can work out.

 

[rutamkrd]

Maybe they have bought a pair of slots from another airline?

in all probability borrowed from new friends KLM Cityhopper and their afternoon baby sitting operations - One less EMJ/F70 flight - they have still one or two that land mid afternoon and lull about for several hours in T4 before returning to Amsterdam for little commercial reason I can work out.

 

[Aceshigh]

Eurostar are starting AMS (4hrs) which will impact similar to Paris but I don't believe it starts until later in the year.

 

[User001]

Scoot management had recently told TOI that if India-Singapore bilateral are increased, the LCC can look at Singapore-Delhi/Mumbai/Chennai/Kolkata-Europe/Gulf flights. The cities being eyed to fly to and from India are: Zurich, Paris, Manchester, Amsterdam, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Scoot re-iterating that Manchester will be their only UK destination should they be allowed India-Europe flights.

 

[ethanegcc]

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Scoot re-iterating that Manchester will be their only UK destination should they be allowed India-Europe flights.

Is there any sort of timeline for when this bilateral agreement could be amended?

 

[Dobbo]

Couple of things worth of mention, but could easily be in the world airline section:

1. Vistara are rumoured to be announcing a major order for widebody aircraft at the Paris Air Show. They are a good shout to start MAN-India flights.
2. Qantas are not a million miles away from looking at additional direct routes to Europe from Perth. Don't expect MAN to feature amongst the second wave after LHR, but it may be in QF's thoughts for a third wave (after the likes of Paris, Rome).

 

[User001]

Aer Southeast to start a 3 weekly (Wed/Fri/Sun) MAN-WAT from 24th July.

 

[Dobbo]

Air Asia X appear to have (again) ditched plans to fly to Europe from KUL.

https://skift.com/2017/06/19/airasi...ll-off-plans-to-fly-to-europe-and-california/

MH might be back in expansion mode so we wait to see if a MAN-KUL route reappears in the mid-term from some other carrier.

 

[groobs]

More info from a report here: https://fora.ie/waterford-airport-new-flights-3452098-Jun2017/

 

[ethanegcc]

Many articles on the web. Although Luton flights have gone online today, Manchester will be bookable at a later date. View attachment 5460

 

[David_itl]

Remember the Evening News touting Addis Ababa as one of the potential new routes? Ethiopian Airlines have ordered 10 more A350s so maybe we could feature in the next wave of expansion by them?

 

[User001]

Potentially 2 new routes from Air Europa this winter, but so far, I can't make heads or tails with the times.

AEA211 ACE 0805 MAN 1220
AEA212 MAN 0300 ACE 0715
Thursday's

So, that one involves not only a mega early departure, but also indicating it starts at MAN rather than ACE?

Then this is the really confusing one:

AEA243 TFS 0700 MAN 1125
AEA244 MAN 0525 TFS 0955
Friday's

So, as you can see, it's clearly not even the same aircraft operating both legs of the TFS.

Now, one problem with the ACE could be a 24 hour clock conversion 'error', in that the 0300 MAN departure is actually supposed to be 1500. Would still give 2:40 turn around time at MAN but it's not uncommon to see these sorts of turns in the winter when the demand on 'beach fleets' is slightly lower.

However, the TFS one probably isn't a 24 hour clock conversion error, as this leaves 6 hours on the ground, and certainly couldn't fit any W pattern flight in the middle?

One to watch, anyway.

 

[Jerry]

With TFS it could fit in an aircraft returning to MAD and then a new aircraft to do MAD-MAN-TFS? Or other way round.

 

[User001]

Skywork Airlines, with the addition of these routes, is loosening the market from Sion and has no contractual relationship with the 'virtual airline' Powdair. Skywork is the only airline available on the market airport, such as London-Luton, Hamburg and Manchester, and Skywork will be able to use the appropriate aircraft size" said a spokesman for the regional airline.

I don't know whether it's an error or if Skywork will serve Manchester. MAN certainly isn't in the booking engine whereas the other routes mentioned are.

 

[Dobbo]

Have to say, MAD strikes me as being underserved so it wouldn't surprise me if this is offered in the final reckoning.

 

[Dobbo]

Call for a direct flight to India.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...businesses-back-direct-flight-india--13262781

I may have time to go through my list later so if anyone has suggestions to look at, please feel free to drop me a line!

 

[Dobbo]

Right, here goes with an abridged list.

Existing Routes: changes possible by airline

SQ (SIN-MAN-IAH) - this seems to be something of a success story. The SIN-MAN leg has always been popular, but MAN-IAH has been a surprising success in terms of numbers. The one caveat to this is that for a long period the prices to IAH were very low. This might be the issue, but on the current trend I think we can expect a capacity increase over the coming months, either by way of larger aircraft or an increase in frequency.

CX (HKG-MAN) - we know the route goes daily on the A350 in December. It will be interesting to see if load factors hold up, because this may be one where, after a year or two, we may see an increase in frequency. I also wonder if they may use the A35K on this route in time...

HU (PEK-MAN) - currently daily, to September, we wait to see if this continues over the winter. Lets not forget that 5x weekly on the B788 would represent a significant step forward from last winter.

UA (EWR-MAN) - there are signs (since removed) that this may be on the B763 in due course. With IAD closing from last summer, extra capacity may be required.

VS (all existing routes) - after a record summer, we are straight into a rather depressing winter. S18 looks similar to S17, so perhaps we are in a holding pattern to see whether VS can grow their offering further over the coming years.

TCX (all existing routes) - the most interesting development could be a move to a condor style operation with business class. However, load factors continue to be high and the switch to year round at JFK is a big step forwards.

Potential New Routes: Airline or Route

The Far East

• Bangkok - the sheer volume of passengers on this route is well documented, and it remains a surprise that there is no clear front runner for an airline to serve this route. I'm sure there is scope for Thai (pseudo loco) and actual loco's (like TCX) to operate the route. I would be surprised if we don't see someone on this in the next couple of years. NokScoot remain interested, and with SQ's long term interest in MAN this would be no surprise.
• Seoul - a slight late comer on the scene, with KE starting to expand in Europe might something be on the cards in the near future? I wouldn't expect anything like a daily service, but there should be a solid cargo and passenger base for 3 weekly.
• Tokyo - the desire for the route is well documented, but if we are looking for someone to start from the Japanese end, it will be tough due to the high costs. We probably aren't to far away, particularly given the recent transfer phenomenon, but if DUS can make it work (on apparently low load factors) I'd expect MAN isn't too far away.
• Kuala Lumpur - it is frustrating that Air Asia X have pulled their plans, but not entirely expected. I think the only hope for this is MH, and I don't expect to see them any time soon, even with their recently found expansionism.

Indian Subcontinent

• Bombay - probably with Bangkok, the most anticipated unserved route. Matching a carrier to this is an issue, with Jet focused on AMS. There are no shortage of potential operators, with Scoot interested in a variety of routes Singapore-India-Manchester. Vistara, Jet and even CS have been touted.
• Delhi - less likely than BOM, possibly another one for scoot and with AI just down the road at BHX I doubt we will see them at MAN.

Middle East

• Kuwait City - long touted, cargo heavy, and I wonder if a 3 weekly route would work out well on what is a short sector for KU. Part of a transit flight to the US would be interesting, but the dry nature of the flights might make it hard for them to attract a large market share.
• Tehran - with the opening up of Iran, for now, this route must be on the radar for MAN.

Africa

• Addis Abba - touted previously, a link to an emerging African hub would be a good step in the right direction.
• Johannesburg and or Cape Town - also touted previously, these would not be served by SAA. The demand would be reasonably strong, if seasonal. My view is that these would be good routes for TCX or VS to allocate some excess summer seasonal capacity to the USA in the northern winter.

North America

• Toronto - when will we see Air Canada mainline on this route, and a winter service...
• Vancouver - as above. More likely to see Rouge on a seasonal basis.
• Calgary - dropped by TS. Surprised if this doesn't appear back on the departure boards in the next couple of years.
• San Francisco - after a shaky start, it seems that both VS and TCX (particularly the latter) are having a good time on this route. It has been one of the poster routes for transfer traffic and long may it continue. I hope we will see this maintained next summer, before the route starts to strengthen from 2019.
• Los Angeles - apparently TCX are having a great time on this. Up to 3 weekly, the next step is to get the route up to 4 weekly in the summer and possibly poke their toe at a winter service. New carriers, VS seem like the only possible contenders, but I don't expect anything next summer from them. 2019 might be the opportunity for them to see how this market works from MAN.
• San Diego - a TCX 2/3 weekly possibility to add to their west coast leisure portfolio and holiday programme.
• Tampa - another TCX sun route. Possibly 2x weekly seasonal.
• New Orleans - another 2x weekly possibility from TCX. A product of UK holiday makers being more adventurous in recent years.
• Denver - a winter ski possibility? Would be a TCX route if any.

I haven't considered Europe, Australasia or South America. South America is likely a good 4/5 years down the road at current growth rates. In terms of Europe, if MAN's transfer business to niche European cities continues, that may be the way to go for more long haul growth. Australasia is not technically possible in one hop and if it was it may not be desirable. Qantas and ANZ may open more European routes, but I don't think this will be in the next 2/3 years. Only European route I'm surprised we have limited connectivity to is MAD. As a fairly major hub, I'd expect IB or BA to offer more direct options in due course rather than the limited IB Express service at present.