Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

I think there is a lot to be cautiously optimistic about.

On the long haul, we know Cathay are expanding, and there is reason to believe both Virgin and United (as well as more from Cathay) have similar plans of their own. Hainan remains to be seen, but they have made the right noises and we should see what the numbers are like this winter, likewise with Oman.

It feels like most of the action is likely to be on short haul. Firstly to fill the void left by Monarch, and then add capacity on other routes. We know there has been a lot of interest in the prime slots, evidenced by MAG's intervention in the Jusicial Review. There is reason to believe that the large locos, EasyJet, Ryanair and Jet2, will all add good slices of capacity. We have heard Alex Cruz refer to modest expansion of BACF, and there is always the prospect of some new/additional capacity from legacy/flag carriers on short haul.

It's cutting it close for this winter, where MAN may tread water compared to last, but by the summer I'd hope to see MAN through 28m and pressing towards 29m.

Remarkable considering the building work...

 

[User001]

The demise of Monarch is good news for Easyjet as the busy carrier was flying similar routes and the same sort of passengers. With Monarch gone, Easyjet will increase its presence at Manchester

This is from the times. Obviously just a throwaway comment for now, but I thought I'd post it. I've seen the plans, I've seen the documents and the expansion is a good one.

All I can say is, with the various bits I've seen, if it all goes ahead, Passenger number wise, it will be like the monarch collapse never happened. Dare I say 29-30m pax may even be completely possible.

 

[David_itl]

I would suggest that most airlines "fly the same sort of passengers" as Monarch!

 

[Silvercity]

I would suggest that most airlines "fly the same sort of passengers" as Monarch!

Sounds like The Times are being bit snobby

 

[Scottie Dog]

Well it is that time of the year and I thought that you would appreciate a few "heads up". You will have to bear with me if I am on occasions being slightly vague, but the information has only just been released and I prefer to keep some of the confidentiality in which the data is supplied.

We know that the demise of Monarch has resulted in the loss of 9 based aircraft. I am led to believe that between them EasyJet, Jet2, Ryanair and Thomas Cook and a certain Spanish carrier are looking to increase the number of based aircraft by 16 or more. That gives a nett increase of 7.

On the trans-Atlantic routes there is confirmation of the loss of AA on JFK and the reduced ORD service. VS to ATL and JFK remain a mixture of A330/B747 and there appears to be an increase in MCO that is offset by a reduction on LAS.

Keep an eye on both India and also increases on China and Pakistan routes/services.

Have a good evening.

 

[David_itl]

Wish we could know how much of the above can be directly attributed to the loss of Monarch and how much was planned for. We can only hope that whatever routes are created by them do not lead to a surfeit of capacity with everyone swarming on the same ones that will result in yields being depressed so causing route losses at the end of next year.

Long haul appears to be intriguing...wish we could encourage a further Far East carrier (particularly welcome would be one by a Japanese carrier coming to the "farmland" (© 2 a.net users)) though the longer the delay for any route to start, the greater the number passengers travelling by other means to any given destination would increase which ought to lead a greater chance of long-term success when that route begins.

 

[nick hall]

and a certain Spanish carrier

LEVEL ?

 

[David_itl]

Don't think it will be Level as they will probably doing Paris and Rome bases feeding off Vueling.


My prediction for 2018... based on Scottie Dog's information and other bits and pieces picked up along the way, I'm going for 29.2 million passengers (does seem that available capacity should be well in excess of that but one must try to dampen down expectations... this is only (!!) roughly 4% growth).

Reasoning:
Additions: 16 extra aircraft means about 4 million extra seats per year
Subtractions: 9 Monarch aircraft, 7% market share or 1.9 million passengers.
So 2.1 million "new" seats available so allowing for about 1.5 million extra passengers.

 

[Dobbo]

Also a few interesting and unexpected short haul additions.

It seems Canada is picking up a bit, but not quite in the way I'd hoped. However, the trajectory is positive.

Some incredible short haul capacity increases. Feels like confidence in the MAN market remains pretty strong.

 

[ethanegcc]

Wish we could know how much of the above can be directly attributed to the loss of Monarch and how much was planned for. We can only hope that whatever routes are created by them do not lead to a surfeit of capacity with everyone swarming on the same ones that will result in yields being depressed so causing route losses at the end of next year.

Long haul appears to be intriguing...wish we could encourage a further Far East carrier (particularly welcome would be one by a Japanese carrier coming to the "farmland" (© 2 a.net users)) though the longer the delay for any route to start, the greater the number passengers travelling by other means to any given destination would increase which ought to lead a greater chance of long-term success when that route begins.

Happened to read that discussion I think. Was it about possibilities for JAL's next long-haul destination? What agitates me most is the majority of the people who make these comments have no clue about the economic/cultural significance of the North of England, or the air services we already have and are supporting.

 

[ethanegcc]

Wish we could know how much of the above can be directly attributed to the loss of Monarch and how much was planned for. We can only hope that whatever routes are created by them do not lead to a surfeit of capacity with everyone swarming on the same ones that will result in yields being depressed so causing route losses at the end of next year.

Long haul appears to be intriguing...wish we could encourage a further Far East carrier (particularly welcome would be one by a Japanese carrier coming to the "farmland" (© 2 a.net users)) though the longer the delay for any route to start, the greater the number passengers travelling by other means to any given destination would increase which ought to lead a greater chance of long-term success when that route begins.

Happened to read that discussion I think. Was it about possibilities for JAL's next long-haul destination? What agitates me most is the majority of the people who make these comments have no clue about the economic/cultural significance of the North of England, or the air services we already have and are supporting.

 

[IanFarquharson]

JAL were looking to add more seats to the UK but have recently got additional LHR flora and started a 788 service a few weeks ago.
So I would imagine that door is now closed

 

[ethanegcc]

JAL were looking to add more seats to the UK but have recently got additional LHR flora and started a 788 service a few weeks ago.
So I would imagine that door is now closed

yes, I realise that. It took a turn from JAL generally, and more a bashing of the rest of the UK, saying it was 'farmland' and 'a random place' amongst others.

 

[Land23R]

yes, I realise that. It took a turn from JAL generally, and more a bashing of the rest of the UK, saying it was 'farmland' and 'a random place' amongst others.

Ethan, who was saying it was a 'farmland' and 'a random place' - JAL?

And I was thinking Japan may have moved up the likely list of MAN destinations in the Far East! Out of interest, have there been any trade delegations to Japan in recent years from the regions, notably the North, do we know? It sounds as if some folk need educating - on A.Net as well.

 

[User001]

Posters on A.net were calling everywhere in the UK outside of London ‘farmland’, and were questioning who in their right mind would travel to Manchester.

 

[Land23R]

Then I hope any subscribers from here to that site will have given a suitable riposte to those ignorant folk.

 

[User001]

I did and it seemed to quieten them down

 

[Dobbo]

I missed all that fun!!!

As Ian F points out, JAL is incredibly unlikely. They will focus traffic through LHR (with BA) and HEL with Finnair.

The best bet is ANA, who could compete using BE via MAN (but probably do already with LH via FRA/MUC/BRU at most of the major UK cities).

 

[David_itl]

The frequency is going to be one thing that would make or break such a route. Too much and it's a loss maker and too little and the business traffic won't use it. It was reasoned that as JAL only do daily services, they won't touch MAN and the idea that SQ, HU and CX were all less than daily just reinforced the idea that we're a backwater.

 

[Dobbo]

A short note from "Blue Swan Daily"

https://blueswandaily.com/monarch-a...ham-and-manchester-slots-already-reallocated/

Highlighted extracts:

The Blue Swan Daily understands that at Manchester these have preliminary placed with seven airlines who will now be able to operate new services and improve timings on some of their existing routes to better meet passenger demand. These include significant expansion from easyJet, Ryanair and Jet2.com that together are expected to base an additional 11 aircraft in Manchester in summer 2018.

Spanish LCC Vueling Airlines is also expected to open a new base at the UK airport, BA CitiFlyer is expected to add a third based Embraer EJet, while Thomas Cook Airlines and TUI Airlines had already committed to additional assets at Manchester before the slot reallocations. These additional rights may entail some shift of operations between terminals at Manchester or initial split operations between terminals due to all the Monarch slots being allocated at Terminal 2.

Ryanair, currently the largest airline by capacity at Manchester, looks set to grow from nine to 12 aircraft with new routes expected to include Agadir, Almeria, Catania, Cagliari, Ponto Delgada, Porto, Reus, Rhodes, Venice and Verona, plus frequency increases in many existing markets.

The Irish budget carrier could be overtaken by easyJet with its based fleet possibly growing from 12 to 18 aircraft. Details of its proposed schedule has not yet been formalised but is likely to include flights to Genoa, Mahon and Nice. Jet2.com is understood to have slots for two additional aircraft, including a second Airbus A330-200, which could be used to launch a long-haul offer in partnership with its Jet2holidays arm, perhaps to Florida or Cancun in Mexico.

Vueling, which has served Manchester continuously since June 2015, is expected to open a new two aircraft base at the facility to serve the likes of Faro, Fuerteventura, Lanzarote, Lisbon, Malaga, Palma adding to its existing flights to Barcelona and recent services to Alicante, Rome and Tenerife.

New entrants at Manchester in summer 2018 may include LOT Polish Airlines (twice daily to Warsaw), airBaltic (twice weekly to Tallinn), Croatia Airlines (twice weekly to Split) and Tunisair (weekly to Monastir), although these are not directly thought to be linked to the Monarch collapse as most slots are at not at peak times. Similarly there are new long haul links on the cards into China and India, albeit it is unclear if allocated slots will be taken up by the airlines.