Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

It goes to show how strong the strategy from DL and VS is from MAN.

Flying a well known brand on a consistent and high standard product is certainly handing them a competetive edge.

Quite frankly, given the issues faced by AA Id be reluctant to use their ORD service. It's just not worth the hassle.

I would not be shocked to see VS flying a number of these routes in time. We think (for good reason) that Detroit is next. After that, there is reason to think LA and Miami are in the frame, with other routes like Chicago and Washington (unless they aim for another DL hub like Minneapolis).

I suspect American will sort out the B788 issues. Whether it will work at ORD remains to be seen. Singapore's move on Houston probably makes Dallas impossible for AA (if they wanted to) and the 757 downside has been discussed.

I would hope United do not pull out of MAN. I'd be shocked given the EWR numbers. Maybe they return to Washington, maybe they look elsewhere. MAN isn't going anywhere and LHR and LGW aren't being expanded anytime soon either. With preclearence, it might just make these routes much more popular than they are now.

 

[ethanegcc]

I would just like to ask: when do you think we will see an A359 at MAN?
We thought we might see an SQ 350 direct but now they have launched the whole houston thing. Do you think we could see an A359 for CX going daily or what about on QRs afternoon flight?
Also as we read on the article for the MEN Ethiopian may start (this could be 788 or 359) and Thai to BKK surely the A359 would be the perfect size for this route?

 

[Dobbo]

Other option may be VS when they replace the bucket and spade B744s with the A350-1000.

 

[ethanegcc]

It goes to show how strong the strategy from DL and VS is from MAN.

Flying a well known brand on a consistent and high standard product is certainly handing them a competetive edge.

Quite frankly, given the issues faced by AA Id be reluctant to use their ORD service. It's just not worth the hassle.

I would not be shocked to see VS flying a number of these routes in time. We think (for good reason) that Detroit is next. After that, there is reason to think LA and Miami are in the frame, with other routes like Chicago and Washington (unless they aim for another DL hub like Minneapolis).

I suspect American will sort out the B788 issues. Whether it will work at ORD remains to be seen. Singapore's move on Houston probably makes Dallas impossible for AA (if they wanted to) and the 757 downside has been discussed.

I would hope United do not pull out of MAN. I'd be shocked given the EWR numbers. Maybe they return to Washington, maybe they look elsewhere. MAN isn't going anywhere and LHR and LGW aren't being expanded anytime soon either. With preclearence, it might just make these routes much more popular than they are now.

I really do hope VS/DL will start Detroit and soon - maybe next summer? I wouldn't fly AA to ORD. It always seems to be hours delayed - just great of you are connecting onwards! And if I'd booked to be on a 788 and one of those pesky 763s pulled up I would be mortified. Could be worse though *cough cough* 752!

VS and DL could make a strong alternative to Heathrow as a UK mini hub now they are codesharing with BE. I hope this is the start for growth for them and DTW should definitely start, fingers crossed. I hope we get some news regarding this in September maybe?

I do however hope that UA doesn't pull out. I know SQ has given them an awful lot of growth ie. IAH connections and some say that SQ provideo a better alternative to UAS 752s which it does but IAH and EWR/IAD are hardly close together and must offer different connections.

 

[ethanegcc]

I know now is a quiet time for routes news but do you think it is realistic still that we will get announcements of the following in September for 2017:
3 weekly CZ to Guangzhou?
CA to Shanghai/Chengdu (maybe at the routes 2016 Chengdu)?
VS or DL to Detroit?
TCX to South Africa?
ET to Addis Ababa?
AI to Mumbai/Delhi?
TG to Bangkok?
CX or HU daily?
And it was also mentioned in another thread that Biman might be coming back to the tatl market from Manchester. What are the rumours surrounding this?

 

[David_itl]

I know now is a quiet time for routes news but do you think it is realistic still that we will get announcements of the following in September for 2017:

At present, the only route we can be reasonably certain of is Air China to Shanghai.

The frequency boost for Hainan and Cathay is also something that could potentially happen with Hainan being the more likely.

From the others, I would suggest that the best time for an airline to launch Bangkok would be with the introduction of the winter timetable - online research indicates our winter is the best time to go over there so it would be easier to get the route off to a good start. Obviously this takes it into the realms of November 2017 at the earliest as it seems too short a time to launch the route this year,

The South African routes appear to be tied into a winter 2017 start given Fred Olsen Cruises give this as an option:
"This is either a 'Fly Cruise' or 'Cruise Only' holiday. Please select the date and airport that you wish to fly from. Alternatively if you do not want to include flights please select Cruise Only.

• 10 Jan 2018 - London Gatwick to Cape Town
• 10 Jan 2018 - Manchester to Cape Town"

Again our winter time is the best time to go there - just have to think of the cricket tours that typically start in November when the weather should be at it's best

 

[User001]

New long haul route to be announced March time for Winter 17. Not saying any more than that at this stage.

 

[ethanegcc]

Hmmm...given that it is winter could it be Thailand or South Africa?
Is it JUST for Winter 17 seasonal or is it starting Winter 17?

 

[David_itl]

I would say that based on cruise flights being an option to select now, we're probably looking at Cape Town by Thomas Cook probably 2 weekly seasonal to maximise a range of holiday/cruise length options. Helps them with their winter utilisation.

 

[User001]

The new route will be year round.

A tourism campaign to highlight the country will begin as early as this December, and the route should then be launched March/April time.

Then next summer in the lead up to the route starting, there will be festivals and more promotions.

This route, as it stands at the moment, will be our first A350 route (unless of course another airline brings one in earlier such as Qatar). Birmingham has also got the diversion contract for this route as the airline has to provide handling equipment such as A350 towbar.

 

[Chilly Dog]

Hmm!

Carriers who have ordered the A350, who are based outside of Europe/North Africa, who don't already serve MAN (assuming this due to the tourism body campaign), and whose A350s begin delivery in or before 2017:

Thai Airways
Asiana
Air Asia X
China Airlines
Vietnam Airlines
LATAM

Any others we know of? I know Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan have fairly active government tourism bodies.

 

[ethanegcc]

I think it's Thai A359 to BKK considering TGS logo appeared in the forum a bit ago and BKK is the largest unserved route from MAN! Can you tell us what alliance the airline is in, if any?

 

[Dobbo]

Thai is in the Star Alliance. I don't necessaraly think it is Thai, Air Asia X are as likely.

I'm in the middle of updating my long haul summary so will touch on it then.

 

[ethanegcc]

I really hope it is Thai, they have way more brand recognition and I think would do better but if they have a year of campaigning any airline should do well. I know TG is in star alliance, I meant I wonder if User001 can tell us the alliance this 'new' airline will be?

 

[Dobbo]

I don't think you'll get an answer to that. It may be tantamount to spilling the beans!

 

[ethanegcc]

I don't think you'll get an answer to that. It may be tantamount to spilling the beans!

My thoughts as soon as I posted it! But still, it's worth a try. Whatever airline, at least we will be getting an A359. Hope it is Thai though.

Also, what is your long haul summary? Is it when you list the rumours of the new routes or summarise all the current ones?

 

[Dobbo]

Bit of both. Summary of existing routes where changes are planned or are rumoured to be planned (for good or bad!) together with soon to start and then pure speculation.

 

[ethanegcc]

Bit of both. Summary of existing routes where changes are planned or are rumoured to be planned (for good or bad!) together with soon to start and then pure speculation.

Oh, great! Can't wait to see it!
I assume though, whichever airline, is the new destination in Asia as LATAM can't be likely surely?

 

[ethanegcc]

I have contacted Thai airways and they sent me this message back:
Good Afternoon Ethan,
Thank you for contacting us. MAN is on our wish list and has been for a long time but at present we have no plans to operate in Winter 2017. Regards, Fabriel

So looks like it is not TG. Could be Air Asia X or what about Ethiopian? There is talk about them operating to ADD and they could be doing a tourism campaign for onward connections to South Africa for example?
RE Asiana South Korea do a lot of tourism advertising but is ICN really viable from MAN?
Vietnam Airlines makes sense to be in the winter and is a growing destination for tourism. Do they offer much in the way of onward connections?

 

[User001]

I wouldn't trust a generic social media response.

Just days before the B787 was announced by AA for the Chicago route, they denied they even had B787's in the fleet!

Just days before KLM pulled LPL they said they had no intention.

VS said they had no plans to serve MAN-SFO just 2 weeks before the route was announced.

So you see where I'm going with that line of thought.......