Archive Route Development & Rumours

[ethanegcc]

I wouldn't trust a generic social media response.

Just days before the B787 was announced by AA for the Chicago route, they denied they even had B787's in the fleet!

Just days before KLM pulled LPL they said they had no intention.

VS said they had no plans to serve MAN-SFO just 2 weeks before the route was announced.

So you see where I'm going with that line of thought.......

At least Thai know what they have in their fleet! So you are implying it is Thai then?

 

[User001]

I'm saying nothing?!

Haha

 

[ethanegcc]

I'm saying nothing?!

Haha

Was the Thai logo in the long haul operators section purely coincidence then?!
I have always thought if TG started a route an A359 would be perfect as to provide less capacity than the likes of OSL, ARN, CPH AND BRU which are relitavely well developed routes whilst MAN gains it's niche.

 

[Land23R]

One aspect that strikes me as strange about this is that March/April is quite late to announce a long haul route for
Winter 2017/18. If it's primarily a leisure route that requires promotion through tour operators as well as other media, I would have thought they finalise their programs with associated flights at least a year in advance whenever possible. Long haul specialists still produce brochures, the first editions of which are normally issued well in advance although later editions are often published subsequently. For example, you wouldn't want someone booking a holiday having to fly from LHR only to discover later they could fly from MAN.

Whether that is relevant I've no idea, or could it suggest that it's a route more likely to attract the DIY traveller booking direct with the airline? The other possibility is that it might sneak into brochures before any official announcement, in which case some folk are bound to spot it.

 

[ethanegcc]

One aspect that strikes me as strange about this is that March/April is quite late to announce a long haul route for
Winter 2017/18. If it's primarily a leisure route that requires promotion through tour operators as well as other media, I would have thought they finalise their programs with associated flights at least a year in advance whenever possible. Long haul specialists still produce brochures, the first editions of which are normally issued well in advance although later editions are often published subsequently. For example, you wouldn't want someone booking a holiday having to fly from LHR only to discover later they could fly from MAN.

Whether that is relevant I've no idea, or could it suggest that it's a route more likely to attract the DIY traveller booking direct with the airline? The other possibility is that it might sneak into brochures before any official announcement, in which case some folk are bound to spot it.

This is true but TG could be a DIY route as well with onward connections or even for business? There are adverts on the TV at the moment promoting Thailand as a business destination suggesting further development for Thailand.

 

[Aceshigh]

Norwegian. ......?

 

[ethanegcc]

Norwegian. ......?

What, for the new route? It is supposedly an A350 so cant be Norwegian can it?

 

[User001]

One aspect that strikes me as strange about this is that March/April is quite late to announce a long haul route for
Winter 2017/18. If it's primarily a leisure route that requires promotion through tour operators as well as other media, I would have thought they finalise their programs with associated flights at least a year in advance whenever possible. Long haul specialists still produce brochures, the first editions of which are normally issued well in advance although later editions are often published subsequently. For example, you wouldn't want someone booking a holiday having to fly from LHR only to discover later they could fly from MAN.

Whether that is relevant I've no idea, or could it suggest that it's a route more likely to attract the DIY traveller booking direct with the airline? The other possibility is that it might sneak into brochures before any official announcement, in which case some folk are bound to spot it.

March announcement for a lead in to November is nothing unusual for a lot of carriers. That's 8 months which is ample time, even for leisure. My next door neighbours want to go to Bangkok in March and have not yet booked.

Indeed, even Air India had a short lead in for their BHX flights, as did Shaheen air for their MAN flights.

Looking at this another way, Oman Air will put the Manchester flights on sale in Sept for an April start, less than 7 months.

Emirates increased to a 2nd A380 at MAN with just 2 weeks lead in time, although I do appreciate that's a slightly different scenario.

 

[ethanegcc]

March announcement for a lead in to November is nothing unusual for a lot of carriers. That's 8 months which is ample time, even for leisure. My next door neighbours want to go to Bangkok in March and have not yet booked.

Indeed, even Air India had a short lead in for their BHX flights, as did Shaheen air for their MAN flights.

Looking at this another way, Oman Air will put the Manchester flights on sale in Sept for an April start, less than 7 months.

Emirates increased to a 2nd A380 at MAN with just 2 weeks lead in time, although I do appreciate that's a slightly different scenario.

I agree! In fact it is quite a long time I think. I hope it is Thai! Fingers crossed...

 

[Land23R]

User001, I take your point but was just trying to suggest that some leisure destinations still involve traditional tour operator holidays including escorted tours from the UK which ideally may require a longer lead-in time.

Of course, it depends on the type of market a new route is hoping to attract, and I would have thought that Pakistan and even India that you mention with a strong ethnic clientele both inbound and outbound are different to say flights to the US. Virgin announced SFO and BOS nearly 12 months before start date, and Oman Air, although not on sale until September was announced some weeks ago.

I suppose what I was musing was whether the time scale gave any clue to the type of operator and destination. No doubt you will reveal all in due course.

ps Are you allowed to mention likely frequency of flights?

 

[User001]

The new route will be primarily leisure based and offer connections at the other end.

It will be daily on A350.

In terms of your Oman comparason, it's worth noting a tourism campaign will start in December time-ish, giving a further 3 months more potential 'lead in time', and even at 8 months, I'm not remotely concerned.

It's worth pointing out that Hainan have had 90% average loads and minimum 86% forward bookings until the end of October.
Why am I mentioning this, well, until late as May 2016, this routes forward bookings were as low as 26% before bookings started spiking around the start of June. It's now one of the most successful China-Long haul route launches in the past 10 years.

 

[Land23R]

A daily A350. Blimey, that narrows it down a bit.

Great that Hainan has started so well. Hope we may see that frequency increase before too long.

 

[ethanegcc]

Offer connections at the other end? Surely this is Thai? Daily A350 is great!

Could you give us the following clues if possible User 001?: is the airline full service or low cost? What alliance is the airline in or is it unaligned?

I really hope HU goes daily!

 

[User001]

Star alliance legacy carrier

 

[ethanegcc]

I am now sure it is Thai! First MAN-BKK is revealed as an extremely large market currently unserved then the logo appears on the thread, then I contact Thai and they say MAN is on their wishlist then User001 says it is star alliance and legacy. Thailand is a great tourist destination but BKK offers a wealth of connections!

The only other two it could possibly be would be Ethiopian or Asiana. But can't see Asiana doing it and it wouldnt be tourism based and surely if ET does start it would first consolidate the market with a 788.

Also is there any updated position to the Shanghai (CA), Guangzhou (CZ) or Detroit (VS/DL) flights? Are they still looking likely?

 

[User001]

Korea could actually have the tourist draw, hence we are seeing a series of charters to Glasgow.

Obviously GLA is inbound for the Scottish scenery tours, but having been to South Korea, it's a beautiful country and there is a large cargo market between the UK and Korea.

(It's not Asiana though, as much as I would love a Korea route)

 

[ethanegcc]

Is it Ethiopian User 001?

I would love Korea too - a great way of getting to Japan. As would PVG or even JAL direct but that is unlikely. Furthermore, couldnt charters like this come to MAN given the lake district, Cumbria and Yorkshire scenery nearby?

 

[User001]

It doesn't seem to have been a market MAN have really actively gone for really, I don't know why.

BHX (China charters) EDI (Japan charters) and now GLA (Korea charters) seem to have had short term success with them (although obviously didn't lead to scheduled flights), but surely even a few weeks of flights is better than none, look at Air Canada rouge, that's a short season service that seems to be over quicker than it began).

Maybe it's just MAN negotiates for full scheduled flights due to the longer term success and doesn't see the benefit of one or 2 flights, I don't know?

 

[ethanegcc]

It doesn't seem to have been a market MAN have really actively gone for really, I don't know why.

BHX (China charters) EDI (Japan charters) and now GLA (Korea charters) seem to have had short term success with them (although obviously didn't lead to scheduled flights), but surely even a few weeks of flights is better than none, look at Air Canada rouge, that's a short season service that seems to be over quicker than it began).

Maybe it's just MAN negotiates for full scheduled flights due to the longer term success and doesn't see the benefit of one or 2 flights, I don't know?

This is true maybe it is better to het longer term flights than just the odd ones. Despite my moaning about AC Rouge its better than not having it at all.

Could you tell us whether ET is the route in question or if its not whether they have any plans at all?

 

[User001]

I know MAN are in advanced talks with ET, but it's not the route in question.