Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Chilly Dog]

By process of deduction, TG looks like the only possible option.

I do remember back in the early 00s, a TG rep leaving flyers in our offices showing existing route maps, and confirming the next two European destinations - AMS and MAN. Both entirely sensible, yet neither materialised.

2017 is such a long way away - so many things could happen between now and then to change a carrier's plans on launch routes (CA anyone?).

One thing that heartens me - BKK and S E Asia being generally a low yield destination - is that TG's business model accounts for the nature of their traffic. Their Scandinavian ops are a prime example - business class (partly) sold as premium economy in a way that yields enough for the airline alongside the rammed economy section. Scandinavians love Thailand as much as Brits it seems.

However, TG starting would be brilliant. Having BKK, SIN, HKG and BJS non stops would have seemed crazy only a couple of years ago. Go Manchester!

 

[Land23R]

User001, or anyone else. Would you like to clarify what's just been posted on the BHX thread?
It sounds intriguing. Do I smell a China route for them?

 

[User001]

Must be Norwegian, as he talks about no competition etc, and apart from Beijing, there isn't really any different competition on China between MAN and BHX.

 

[Land23R]

Norwegian TATL to LAX perhaps? His reference to despite what's been posted on F4A, and the implication it was a choice of MAN or BHX, made me think of Air China or Thai which would be more of a shock than Norwegian.
An Air India transit also crossed my mind.

 

[User001]

The Thai market to Manchester is much much bigger than Birmingham anyway, so, his points about Competition and BHX being the favourite were moot on that point.

Air China wise, CA have applied and aim to start MAN-PVG later this year, and then due to the 1 airline rule, we wouldn't have had a chance at getting CA on PEK anyway.

Air India, I am not aware of Manchester even being in the running for a transit flight, but they are aiming for a stand alone flight so as far as I'm concerned, MAN wasn't competing BHX for any such flight anyway (the fact I'm not even aware of any impending AI transit flight indicates MAN wasn't running for it as I get to see a lot of reports etc).

For me, and due to the language of 'multiple routes' and the 'BHX was always favourite despite what some on this forum were saying' leads me to Norwegians door. And let's face it, they will do long haul from the regions eventually, it's just a matter of when.

 

[Land23R]

Yes, you're probably right. If it's DY to the US, it will be interesting from MAN's standpoint to see what destinations they choose. If it includes New York, that may well impact on UA and AA at BHX in the same way that TCX has affected those carriers at MAN to a degree as well as meeting and stimulating demand in an underserved market.

 

[ethanegcc]

I really do hope TG start. It seems so by a process of elimination but woulf love confirmation to save us not driving ourselves mad!

 

[ethanegcc]

https://www.businesstraveller.com/airport/2016/07/28/malaysia-airlines-places-order-b737-max/

I can't believe MAB is growing. It says at the bottom MAB is finalizing two routes the A350 will serve from KUL - could it be MAN in the future?

Also CA to PVG later this year now? When will there be an official announcement? It has seemed to take forever.

 

[Dobbo]

Something that I have been interested in is the recent proliferation of "long" long haul routes from MAN over the past couple of years and looking towards 2017.

So my question thrown out to the floor is:

1 - which were the longest 5 outbound routes into MAN in 2013
2 - which were the longest 5 routes into MAN in 2013
3/4 - Ditto but in 2017

 

[ethanegcc]

If TS flew to YYC and YVR in 2013 which I think they did here were the longest routes on distance for 2013:
1. Cancun (TCX, TOM)
2. Goa (TCX)
3.Vancouver (TS)
4. Orlando International (VS)
5. Calgary (TS)
Would have to do some research for 2017. Shall I have one including currently confirmed routes and one including highly likely ones?

 

[David_itl]

We need to stop getting Thai'd err... tied up in knots.

 

[Dobbo]

Yes, if you can dig out inbound/outbound flight times that would be great.

 

[ethanegcc]

For the confirmed and bookable routes for 2017:
This is for distance (not time) and according to gcmapper:

4) MAN HKG 5,988 mi - CX - 4 times weekly 77W could be upped to 8 weekly - 11hrs 40mins outbound, 12hrs 50mins inbound
1) MAN SIN 6,810 mi - SQ - 5 times weekly 77W could be upped to daily - 12hrs 40mins outbound, 14hrs 25mins inbound
3) MAN HKT 6,205 mi - TOM 788 fortnightly - 11hrs30mins outbound, 12hrs inbound
5) MAN PVR 5,599 mi - TOM 788 not certain of frequency - 11hrs45mins outbound, 10hrs00mins inbound
2) MAN MRU 6,206 mi - TOM 788 fortnightly - 11hrs 40mins outbound, 12hrs15mins inbound

Now including routes that are rumoured and likely to launch:

1) MAN SIN 6,810 mi - SQ - 5 times weekly 77W could be upped to daily
2) MAN MRU 6,206 mi - TOM 788
3) MAN HKT 6,205 mi - TOM 788
4) MAN CPT 6,141 mi - TCX/VS?
5) MAN BKK 5,991 mi - TG A359 for W17 or TCX/Norweigan

PVG and PEK slightly off the list for both. If HND started that could make it on but even if JNB started it wouldn't make it to the top 5.

 

[David_itl]

HKT and MRU should be either weekky or fortnightly. Want to go all nostalgic when we had Air Mauritius and Air Seychelles as scheduled airlines!

 

[ethanegcc]

So based on duration - Outbound:
1)MAN-SIN 12hrs40mins
2)MAN-PVR 11hrs45mins
Joint 3rd) MAN-MRU, MAN-HKG 11hrs40mins
5)MAN-HKT 11hrs30mins

Inbound:
1)SIN-MAN 14hrs25mins
2)HKG-MAN 12hrs50mins
3)MRU-MAN 12hrs15mins
4)HKT-MAN 12hrs00mins
5)PEK-MAN 11hrs20mins (PVG would come here if we knew it was going to operate)

Time comparison to 2013 to come...!

 

[ethanegcc]

2013 Outbound -
1 )Cancun - 11hrs00mins
2) Goa - 09hrs40mins
3) Vancouver - 09hrs30mins
4) Orlando International - 09hrs00mins
5) Calgary - 08hrs50mins

2013 Inbound -
1) Goa - 11hrs00mins
2) Lahore - 09hrs 25mins
3) Cancun - 09hrs10mins
4) Vancouver - 09hrs00mins
5) Islamabad - 08hrs 25mins

The number 1 route outbound has gone up by 1hr40mins, inbound no. 1 has gone up by 3hrs25mins.
The number 2 route outbound has gone up by 1hr55mins, inbound no. 2 has gone up by 3hrs25mins also ironically!
The number 3 route outbound has gone up by 2hrs10mins - compared to number 4 outbound 2013 it has gone up by 2hr40mins, inbound no. 3 has gone up by 2hrs55mins.
The inbound number 4 route has gone up by 3hrs.
The number 5 route outbound has gone up by 2hrs 40mins, inbound no. 5 has gone up by 2hrs55mins.

Also notice the introduction of CX, SQ and HU.

 

[ethanegcc]

Good pun! I really don't see who else it could be. If User001 could confirm that it is/is not TG and he says we will get an announcement in March time with a tourism campaign in December it could be great for MAN to have Thai rather than an LCC option to BKK.

 

[David_itl]

With the BE-SQ codeshare now signed, perhaps we can look at the "uniqueness" of MAN as a hub given that there are a range of destinations available in the UK that aren't from LHR:
IOM, NWI, INV*, SOU, EXT.

The beauty of the southern routes is that there is the potential for some passengers to think that the drive/rail to LHR/LGW may not be worth the effort - may become a lot more cost effective for them to drive and use the long-stay car parks at their local car park or get a taxi to their local and then do local-MAN-overseas. This September, my brother is off to the States and is going to drive from Exeter and stay overnight at a LHR hotel before going on the DL Salt Lake City route (alas the tour is he is going on doesn't have a MAN transatlantic option otherwise he would have a choice to come to me leaving his car here or connect on BE to VS/DL with internal transfer in the States),

Perhaps this is something that the route development team casually drops into the conversation when talking about the 22 million in the catchment area as these domestic routes extend the catchment to all parts of the country, so should lessen the risk of only having the local passengers booking these routes.

I just wonder if it's going through BE's mind about upping the GLA, EDI and NWI routes so that there's a mid-morning route to connect to the list of long-haul routes and also reduce waiting times should the inbound long-haul be delayed.

* INV is available at LHR but I don't think the timings are that conducive for connecting.

 

[Dobbo]

Whats the status of the BA shuttle? Could you (for example) buy a through ticket at from MAN to connect to a non-BA flight overseas?

if not, that would be a huge advantage because even places like EDI, GLA, ABZ would find MAN connections attractive.

Maybe BE could be well placed to significantly expand their offering as new airlines arrive at MAN?

 

[Dobbo]

P.s. - what about a Cardiff route!