Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Aceshigh]

It's not Jet Blue is it ?

Have converted order to A321LR and are looking at UK. There was a rumour they were in conversation with MAG and FLYBE but I assumed it was fanciful.

But it WOULD be a gamechanger!

 

[Jerry]

Jet Blue are considering long haul routes. They have options for A321neoLR 15 i think but i don't think any of it is certain and they don't start getting deliveries till 2019 at the earliest and apart from British Airways and Norwegian who else would run New York routes from MAN?

 

[Aceshigh]

A gamechanger is exactly that is it not ?

A new airline bring in 4 or 5 new routes a day so...

A Jet Blue / FlyBe axis

Emirates getting onward rights to 3 or 4 US destinations and using Manchester as a hub.
See also Etihad or QR ?

BA basing 5 777 here?

VIRGIN moving from Gatwick en masses.

AI setting up a scissor operation to New York Toronto Delhi Mumbai +

RyR / FlyBe acquiring 777 and running their own long haul.

The return of QF daily

Those are game changers :l

 

[ethanegcc]

I don't think QF would return besides if they wanted to go from SYD-JFK via MAN it would mean 2 stops and they codeshare with EK frok DXB to both MAN and JFK.

I think we can rule out FR and BE as User001s post said transit airline.

JetBlue isn't going to materialise atleasg until they recieve their A321NeoLRs.

My guess it is Air India with a scissor hub, Biman Bangladesh or maybe even Thai?

It could be one of the ME3. What if Oman Air did a MCT-MAN-JFK routing but then if they see capcity at MAN for daily 788 then merging it with another route wouldn't work.

Ethiopian maybe?

What about Gulf Air/Kuwait Airways? Bit of a long shot but neither MAN or JFK have BAH?

 

[David_itl]

Kuwait Aiirways would be an automatic no-no for transit other than fuel stops. The US DOT ruled against them after a passenger with dual American and Israeli passports tried to check into a JFK-LHR flight using the Israeli passport and was denied boarding as it's not recognised as an official document per the laws of Kuwait and wouldn't be allowed entry into Kuwait, even though they wouldn't be going to Kuwait.

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes I did think something had happened to do with their stop at LHR but didn't quite know what. Thank you for the information David_itl!

 

[David_itl]

Lets examine the airlines that coukd feasibly use MAN for transit:

AI. They seem more content with doing India-US non-stop now and only be looking at a DEL-BOM--MAN routing. Have unused rights for LHR-JFK with those timings at LHR being used for other Indian routes.

BG. Would be an about turn for them to come back here after deciding BHX better suited their market. Unless they can only use MAN for transatlantic ops.

ET. Target city of Addis Ababa. Using MAN and not DUB is a bit higher on gamechanging stakes.

SV. Going to daily ex-MAN with a 2 weekly 744 service through to JFK may make heads turn with 5 weeekly JED-MAN 789.

EK: Big potential. Looking at UK-US routes. MAN needs more capacity so 4th flight going to EWR?

CX. Jaw-dropper. Wants transatlantic ex LHR but may be satisfied with MAN. Daily 77W HKG-MAN-JFK with 3 weekly A350 MAN-HKG.

SQ. Extremely unlikely. If they didn't launch IAH then it would be be as high as 5% chance but they are a conservative airline and not want to have a 2nd JFK run through Europe and i can hardly see them transferring SIN--FRA--JFK given the yield is better there, A380s in peak periods here may add to delays whilst sorting out the apron and timings would be like the IAH route.

 

[Land23R]

Having not seen the original post, what was the context? - a rumour, a possible with MAN in the frame with other airports, very likely, just awaiting confirmation, a definite goer?

For what it's worth, and assuming it's a transit flight, my guess would be that an ME3 (or ME4?) would be most likely. Tend to agree with David re AI.
A complete wild card would be another OW carrier possibly taking over one or more of the AA routes from MAN. Couldn't be BA if transit. And would that be a game changer depending on the airline and route origin? Highly improbable though.

 

[User001]

I've had to delete my post for the NYC news. There will be more news when I have it, but, it will be a game changer not nessisarily due to the airline involved (they are no strangers to transit flights), it's more the context of how people have viewed Manchester and its potential in the past.

Like I say, more news when I have it.

 

[ethanegcc]

I can't see SV rostering a 744 if anything it would be a 77W.

'No strangers to transit flights' - SQ, AI, EK, ET - who else operates tatl transit flights currently?

I would include PK but I can't see any expansion for them and Jet Airways have establisbed a base in AMS.

User001 - does the airline currently serve MAN?

 

[Dobbo]

I think we should try and be patient, and wait for further news.

I'm still hoping for ANZ (or another full service carrier to LAX!)

 

[Land23R]

Thanks User001. I hadn't read your post when I edited mine. I wonder whether or not "no stranger to transit flights" implies TATL transits or could apply to flights to Australia say with an en route stop.

But yes, patience is the word.

 

[ethanegcc]

So to wrap up what we have possibly got to look forward to for next year...

• New Delta service to DTW
• Winter 2017 *A A350 carrier
• New JFK transit carrier
• Possible PVG with CA

 

[User001]

I'll only now post more news on the transit flight when I have it,

 

[ethanegcc]

Just a thought, why don't Alitalia launch (or relaunch) flights to Rome FCO or Milan MXP?

It could provide a Skyteam alternative for South America and Japan/Asia as people I have spoken to are reluctant to fly Air France via CDG.

They could also do well with o&d passengers to Rome as it is a tourist-y destination as well as the capital of Italy?

It could be done using an A319 or even an Embraer. And is there any reasoning as to why Czech chose LPL rather than MAN?

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Alitalia hub at Roma FCO. Their presence at MXP is quite underwhelming. Attitudes towards them there is similar to that towards BAW by enthusiasts at MAN. EasyJet is the dominant short-haul carrier at MXP. They already operate to MAN along with FlyBe. And Ryanair offer frequent departures to MAN from nearby Bergamo BGY. The Milan route likely doesn't have space for a fourth carrier.

If Alitalia were to consider FCO-MAN they're again up against established competition from LCC's. And again, Ryanair operate frequent departures from Roma Ciampino CIA just down the road. So these aren't vacant route opportunities. They're highly competitive. Alitalia would need a decent chance of returning profits if they were to launch ... achieving a bit of market-share isn't the general idea.

CSA Czech Airlines also follows some familiar themes. Firstly, they've partially re-invented themselves as a LCC rather than a full-service traditional flag carrier. As such, they're trying to emulate Wizz by avoiding primary airports in the budget sector. They would argue that these offer cheaper deals, but MAN attracts a large Ryanair presence amongst others and they're not given to over-paying. So MAN's deals can't be that bad. CSA is perhaps scared away by the keen competition in the form of the LCC's operating MAN-PRG. Following years of heavy losses and poor management, Hanjin Group (South Korea) have now taken an interest in the airline which should provide some stability. Tackling strong LCC competition head-on may yet be a step too far for them though.

 

[ethanegcc]

I did think given that 3 carriers fly to Milan from MAN would be unlikely but I think FCO could work using the right advertising for both the destination and the connections available from it.

I agree with CSA from MAN too but surely by flying from LPL an hour down the road you are still competing with MAN's carriers? I think they too could cash in on connections to ICN with either Korean Air or themselves from PRG.

 

[Aceshigh]

Would Ethiopian be a game changer

Would they get rights both way to LA. ?

Would they swap out of DUB ?

Its been 2 years so is a cheap landing deal about to expire?

Addis has been mentioned as a target destination so ots on the radar and 50/50 split would be a safe way to fill it up.

AND if they chose Manchester we suddenly open up Africa ?

We would have the prestige of an airline choosing Manchester over a capital airport.

Fanciful maybe. ..maybe not !

 

[Dobbo]

Ethiopiean would be a game changer. My suspicion is that we won't see them do LAX if it is working from DUB. Also, I think that's likely to come from VS.

I would love to see more mainline services to Canada, but in reality that may not be attractive to them.

 

[ethanegcc]

Could they do another route through MAN though i.e. IAD?

However User001 said the flights were to JFK so Canada isn't an option.

What about Shaheen - could they grow further with a transit flight through MAN?

What we really need to know is whether the airline in question would be a newbie to MAN or is already operating from here/has done in the past.