Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

Ah yes, of course. I forgot it was JFK!

I'll keep my eyes peeled.

Question to the floor: what sort of circumstances would lead to BA coming back to MAN? Obviously hypothetical but interesting none the less...

 

[David_itl]

Just a thought, why don't Alitalia launch (or relaunch) flights to Rome FCO or Milan MXP?

Alitalia have had something like 4 attempts to operate to Milan and/or Rome with at one time doing 10 to 12 weekly A319s with a nightstopping service. That latter attempt got decent passenger numbers but alas too many not paying premium prices.

Question to the floor: what sort of circumstances would lead to BA coming back to MAN? Obviously hypothetical but interesting none the less...

New broom at the helm and he hasn't totally ruled it out. However, you've only got to look at how our long-haul portfolio has played out and you can't really see them doing anything as going east they'll be under pressure as the obvious routes being covered and going west, where in the States would they fly?

I would imagine the cost structure for AA is far lower than it is for BA so it makes better financial sense given that they are in a joint venture for AA to handle the transatlantic stuff. Also need to look at the equipment BA have got. They are replacing 767s and if we are being honest, the 787s that are going to replace them will mean that BA have a far better chance of recouping that investment at LHR than at MAN given the greater yield and the modus operandi of BA in trying to get a 10% profit margin when they may have explain away maintaining loss making routes for a few years just because they don't want the North of England thinking that they are neglecting them during a time of better economic prospects.

The other aircraft BA either have now or in the future would hold too many seats and/or too premium focused (remember, some of their 747s only hold 291 passengers!) - another quote to remember was Willie Walsh saying it's uneconomic to run a small sub-fleet to match what they could reasonably expect to fill at MAN so you'd pretty much think that Alex Cruz would also be of the same mindset. Maybe in 5 years or more, the markets will have developed for BA and AA to offer a complimentary service and the 787s will have paid back a chunk of their cost.

 

[Dobbo]

Fair points. I had wondered whether the VS model would work, or perhaps a short haul feeder network for OW partners with some long haul gaps filled in.

Trouble is the conclusion I keep coming back to is, why not do it at DUB with EI? Unless IAG value the BA brand and would only use it in the UK I don't see how you would avoid that conclusion?

 

[ethanegcc]

There was talk on this forum of CZ opening a 788 3 weekly CAN route. Is this still possible or on the cards?

 

[Dobbo]

There was talk on this forum of CZ opening a 788 3 weekly CAN route. Is this still possible or on the cards?

It's in my route summary.

I suspect it is down the pecking order from Shaghai and an expansion of capacity to Beijing.

After these routes bed down, all bets are off between Guangzhou, Chengdu and Xi'an.

 

[Jerry]

Could No

Alitalia have had something like 4 attempts to operate to Milan and/or Rome with at one time doing 10 to 12 weekly A319s with a nightstopping service. That latter attempt got decent passenger numbers but alas too many not paying premium prices.





New broom at the helm and he hasn't totally ruled it out. However, you've only got to look at how our long-haul portfolio has played out and you can't really see them doing anything as going east they'll be under pressure as the obvious routes being covered and going west, where in the States would they fly?

I would imagine the cost structure for AA is far lower than it is for BA so it makes better financial sense given that they are in a joint venture for AA to handle the transatlantic stuff. Also need to look at the equipment BA have got. They are replacing 767s and if we are being honest, the 787s that are going to replace them will mean that BA have a far better chance of recouping that investment at LHR than at MAN given the greater yield and the modus operandi of BA in trying to get a 10% profit margin when they may have explain away maintaining loss making routes for a few years just because they don't want the North of England thinking that they are neglecting them during a time of better economic prospects.

The other aircraft BA either have now or in the future would hold too many seats and/or too premium focused (remember, some of their 747s only hold 291 passengers!) - another quote to remember was Willie Walsh saying it's uneconomic to run a small sub-fleet to match what they could reasonably expect to fill at MAN so you'd pretty much think that Alex Cruz would also be of the same mindset. Maybe in 5 years or more, the markets will have developed for BA and AA to offer a complimentary service and the 787s will have paid back a chunk of their cost.

BA could offer Phoenix as a hub route or LAX? or maybe some South American destinations?

 

[ethanegcc]

This is completely unrealistic to happen given BA's position but: I think the best bets for BA would be to base 6 788s at MAN.

The 788s are the best fit as they don't have first class and less CW than BA's 772s.

They could have an afternoon JFK flight daily to complement the AA offering and they could launch Dallas, Miami and Los Angeles. This could take two 788s.

To the east, they could launch a twice weekly Tokyo route to connect to JAL, a thrice weekly Kuala Lumpur route to connect to MAB and a 4 weekly HKG route to complement CX on some of the days CX don't operate and an evening service on others. This would use about three 788s.

To the south they could launch Cape Town and Johannersburg using one 788 also.

As I say this is completely hypothetical and would not happen given BAs current position.

 

[ethanegcc]

http://www.anna.aero/2016/08/10/chengdu-airports-double-digit-growth-sees-it-pass-40m/
Could this be a market for an Air China route to MAN? It has been talked about in the past. There are several reasons why I think this may come off:

• Chengdu and Manchester airports are both recieving phenomenal growth.
• It has been rumoured in the past.
• HU to PEK was an extremely successful launch - surely CA have been watching this carefully and want a piece (or two) of the action themselves
• Chengdu is host city for the routes online world routes conference in September.

What do you think? Could this work? Is it possible? Are there anymore rumours?

Further to this, by 2018 could this be realisitc?
CA 4 weekly 332 to PVG
HU daily 333 to PEK
CA 3 weekly 332/333 to CTU
CZ 3 weekly 788 to CAN

 

[Aceshigh]

If the almighty row regarding Hinkley Point isn't resolved satisfactorily I suspect the list below is more realistic..








.

 

[Land23R]

If the almighty row regarding Hinkley Point isn't resolved satisfactorily I suspect the list below is more realistic..

.

Quite right. Unfortunately, aviation doesn't exist in a bubble of it's own and is influenced by politics, recessions, wars, terrorism etc.

There may or may not be valid reasons for cancelling HP, but if it is, some considerable diplomatic skills will be required.
On a more positive note, it is very encouraging that HU has got off to such a good start on its 4 x weekly PEK service.
Incidentally, I thought HU to Xian had also been mentioned as a possibility, but as regards China generally I think it's very much a case of fingers crossed and hoping for some decent developments in the medium term.

Still, with SQ to IAH, and expectations of formal announcements re MCT & DTW next month, it should keep MAN's long haul pot bubbling for next year. In terms of passenger numbers for 2017 however, I imagine it will be what the likes of EZY, RYR, Jet2, TCX and TOM do that will have most impact.

 

[ethanegcc]

Well surely it doesn't mean HU to PEK will end? Given the strong start it should atleast stay the same frequency for next summer if not increased.

The PVG route is also very important for MAN.

Would the HKG route have different cirumstances given it is a Semi-Autonomous Region of China? Could CX actually enforce growth to daily?

 

[Aceshigh]

The problem is that this trade deal could turn into a "tit for tat exhange "......
My problem is the fact that May seems not to care a jot.

One would think intense diplomatic discussions were going on to calm things but if they are, they are happening being very closed doors.

Let's not forget its not just airline routes. Airport City could also get swept up in this as indeed could the billion pound property explosion ear marked for Sheffield (nearest airport ?).

Hinkley Point is on Somerset but all the additional damage could take place up here.

 

[rutamkrd]

My problem is the fact that May seems not to care a jot.

Couldn't disagree more Theresa has the security of the UK very much at the centre of her thinking on this (none aviation) issue - I certainly support the need to protect energy supplies and nuclear is a part of that , however allowing the Chinese to get involved in our production is VERY worrisome imo !

 

[Jerry]

Theresa May is probably thinking long term. Yes Chinese investment is good and we all want more flights to China from regional airports but relationships with China blow hot and cold and having them essentially owning a large part of the UK's energy generation isn't a good strategic long term move for the country as a whole.

 

[Land23R]

I don't think Aceshigh for one moment was suggesting May doesn't care a jot about security. However, by taking a strong stand on the security aspects of HP, it does create an impression that she is not too concerned about the potential implications and effect on other Chinese infrastructure investment, especially as she has not so far made any reassuring noises about such other investment. Sometimes diplomacy has to be carried out publicly as well as behind closed doors to address issues like 'saving face'.

In terms of route development, it is to MAN's advantage that their focus is not concentrated solely on China for long haul as the recent announcement re SQ, Virgin's growth to the US and Oman Air's planned service to Muscat demonstrate, not to mention the rumours of a A350 flight starting winter 2017 and a transit flight to New York.
And there is still the large Indian market to secure direct flights to.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The interesting thing is that if Brexit hadn't won the day Cameron and his team would still be running the government and Hinckley Point would be going ahead replete with the huge Chinese investment. Until the EDF board confirmed its intention to proceed the UK government (perhaps the current PM excepted) was very concerned that the French would pull out of the deal. Ironically, it now seems that the UK might pull the plug.

The Chinese through their UK ambassador have made low key, veiled hints that if Hinckley Point is halted it might have an effect on future UK/China economic co-operation. We can never be certain how much of this is bluff.

The PM has to weigh up the possible damage to future UK-China economic relations against the security of a vital aspect of national life - energy sources. Hinckley Point is already foreign owned. Two hundred years ago France was the country Britain feared most in terms of its security. Now it's apparently the Communist countries, or at least some of them, in their various guises.

Who knows what it will be in another two hundred years?

 

[Dobbo]

I think Land23R is pretty much in the money. Yes there is a slight change of direction with Anglo-Sino relations, I think things are generally moving in the right direction and it would take something major to completely derail (as opposed to delay) continued integration.

There are a lot of chinese routes in the pipeline, and I expect this to continue to move forwards in time.

Meanwhile, there are loads of other developments to look. Further routes to the Far East, new airlines, Virgin's continued development of the MAN hub and I hope closer connections to Africa. Let's hope it keeps moving forwards.

Against the background of this there is the TP which will change the face of the airfield infrastructure.

 

[ethanegcc]

On the 'In ten years time...' thread Colombo was mentioned as a possible destination for TCX. But Thomson have launched a weekly LGW-CMB winter service along with MAN's Phuket one. For Winter 17, could Thomson launch Colombo from Manchester? Could it depend on the success of LGW?

This is the extract from an article online about Malsyia preparing for a surge of tourists from ASEAN countries and Europe:
'Second-tier cities in Europe that are also on Tourism Malaysia’s radar include Manchester and Liverpool in the United Kingdom, Lyon and Toulouse in France, St Petersburg and Minsk in Russia, and Munich and Cologne in Germany'
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/05/146936/malaysia-gearing-more-tourists?m=1

Although Minsk is most definately NOT in Russia, more like Belarus or White Russia, the point of the article still stands. An air route with MAB or Air Asia X to MAN would serve Liverpool also and with the tourist numbers growing? Could Air Asia X's next European destination be Manchester? It is also rumoured thay MAB are getting ready to launch a new European destination with their 359, again - could it be MAN?

 

[User001]

The Anna.aero unserved route of the week is MAN-SAW.

Says there were 400,000 searches, making it the largest unserved route of the week so far, and commented it's so large despite MAN-IST being served 3 times daily.

Pegasus were due to launch it but back tracked with the troubles Turkey has had, so, one hopes they may re-visit the idea next summer.

 

[Dobbo]

The Anna.aero unserved route of the week is MAN-SAW.

Says there were 400,000 searches, making it the largest unserved route of the week so far, and commented it's so large despite MAN-IST being served 3 times daily.

Pegasus were due to launch it but back tracked with the troubles Turkey has had, so, one hopes they may re-visit the idea next summer.

Always thought the searches stat to be very much a secondary type statistic behind things like one stop journeys.

Istanbul seems odd (in the wider sense) for the reasons set out by user above. I'd have thought there would be better unserved routes out there!