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Jet Airways are planning to return to the USA and are evaluating both direct and one stop services.

Amsterdam is the likely favourite should they decide on a one stop service but with the Etihad ties and links to Delta MAN must surely be in the running?

Jet Airways is planning resume its US flights to capitalise on high demand on the India-US routes and grow its international operations. Jet Airways pulled out of the US market late March when it stopped its Mumbai-Brussels-Newark flight. It is now evaluating both a non-stop and an one stop service between India and New York.

http://www.business-standard.com/ar...ans-to-restart-us-flights-116092101071_1.html
 
I would put my house on it being AMS. The current Toronto flight routes through there and I'm told Newark will too.
 
I understand the new transit carrier won't be around until 2018, but could you give us any hints like will the route give us two new destinations (e.g. DEL-MAN-DTW, unlikely example I know), 1 new direct destinations (e.g. DEL-MAN-IAD) or no new direct destinations (e.g. DOH-MAN-SFO)?

Also, is this airline one we already have at MAN?

Is it in an alliance?
 
In advance of the October announcement season, I thought I would spend some time looking at the long haul programme, and offering up some thoughts for discussion. The focus is on the 2 year period starting S18.

This is slightly different, and is offered on an airline by airline basis. The focus is on existing airlines, but some thoughts are offered on potential new entrants. I have used the IATA and ICAO abbreviations interchangeably as I think is easier to understand.

UK Airlines

Flybe (BE) - yes, they are not a long haul operator but are the only airline offering a wide range of transfer options at MAN (CX, EH, VS, HU, SQ). I have not experienced a transfer at MAN, but I understand it is not particularly easy. With the TP aiming to make this significantly easier, I wonder if BE could see an opportunity to expand their offering? Codeshares are not the best business proposition, but it might work out okay for them?

British Airways (BA)

Don't currently operate long haul from MAN. But there is widespread speculation that they and AA (JV partner) are keeping an eye on the DL/VS JV at MAN.

AA's operational problems at MAN (and elsewhere) are widely documented, and they appear to be in widespread withdrawal from Europe. It would not be a compete shock to see BA metal stepping into run services from MAN to AAs hubs at ORD, DFW, LAX, MIA and JFK.

Looking at some of the figures for ORD through early and mid 2000's in particular, there is the basis for a large underserved market here. JFK is a strong and growing market, but at LAX and MIA there is competition from TCX and probably VS by that stage.

Which metal could they use? The B788s would be the right size, but are new aircraft and BA would need the best return in the investment. Would an older aircraft make sense (not a B767)?

Thomas Cook (TCX)

Have been in expansion mode for some time, and continue to open new routes and expand existing ones at MAN. They are starting to build up an impressive fleet of A330s at MAN (7 I think next summer?)

Their success has put them in the position where they have an interesting decision to make. Do they continue to brand themselves as a bucket and spade type airline, or can they position themselves to also offer business type service? Some of their more recent destinations indicate a move towards the latter, but perhaps this needs to wait for higher frequencies before the branding is rolled out.

They are likely to face interesting challenges ahead with VS and DY in the course of planning significant expansion in their core TATL routes. Will they seek to diversify or can they compete head to head. I'm not sure there is room for all three at MAN in the short term.

Virgin Atlantic (VS)

VS and DL has been one of the more exciting developments of the past 12 months. They are building up a significant based fleet of A333 and B747 (presumably to be replaced with A350-1000) and spreading out from the traditional beach routes. Since the partnership with DL started, VS have added Atlanta, New York, Boston and San Francisco to their MAN network. It is likely they are not done there.
I suspect that the next most likely routes to see from MAN (if you assume Detroit remains DL) is Los Angeles and Miami, and I expect the frequencies of some routes to increase in time. Good to see, but will they look to branch out from TATL and look as routes like South Africa?

Tompson Airways (TOM) - I find it difficult to assess TOM because it is so wedded to their package holiday offering and the frequencies reflect this. I am sure they will continue to offer interesting routes on the dream liners but I don't think they will copy the TCX model.

North American Airlines

American Airlines (AA) - see comments on the BA JV above. I think PHL stays on AA metal as it seems to be operating reasonably well, even if the raw numbers look quite poor. Turning to JFK, it is difficult to see how they can regain market share as they face competitors offering a better product and/or lower prices.

United Airlines (UA) - as with AA, it is difficult to see what they can do without working with partner airlines. SQs route to IAH will help on a codeshare basis, but the decline in the IAD route and stagnation at EWR should be a concern. Perhaps a wide body on EWR is in the S17 pipeline?

Delta (DL) - seem to have got a lot right with the VS partnership so far. May think about Detroit, but I think the DL tail will be seen less frequently in the future.

Jet Blue (B6) - it has been mooted that B6 would start TATL operations from the UK regions to the north eastern USA on the A321LR. This may or may not be relevant to MAN, but is worth keeping an eye on as the market evolves.

Air Canada (AC)
The Canadian market has ostensibly declined over the last 20 years, roughly in line with the generations (less VFR traffic). AC currently serve MAN seasonally from Toronto through their Rouge brand.

With the short use of AC mainline in S16, might they consider switching on a permanent basis to mainline (year round if seasonal?) starting in S17? Might they also consider an expansion to Montreal, Calgary or most likely Vancouver? My view is that they should focus on Toronto and get a year round service in that market.

Air Transat (TS) - seem to have made a slight upgrade from A310 to A330 for S17. Aside from that I have seen no change to the schedule and am not sure whether there is much scope other than the odd increase/decrease in rotations.

Middle East Airlines

Emirates (EK) - continue to increase capacity, with three A380 per day. The question is at what point EK think about adding a fourth daily flight and how this would be implemented (B77W)? They have recently cancelled the 4th daily from LGW, so might this find its way to MAN? EK might also be in the frame for 5th freedom flights, which has been considered in the past. Quite where is up for debate. One issue is fleet size - if they want to increase it whilst running a "young" fleet I suspect deliveries will need to increase.

Etihad (EY) - to me, EY are the most likely of the MEB3 to add a daily rotation at MAN, mostly because their fleet is surprisingly small compared to its peers, and is going to grow over the next 5-10 years. I gather EY are spending a lot of money on a new lounge and it is possible that this indicates new or more premium focused equipment. Might they bring the A380 to MAN as well as adding more rotations?

Qatar (QR) - have made some slight cutbacks to the service (reduction of one weekly rotation) and are notorious for being slow to restore this. Equipment used has been holding steady with the B788 and B77W. I don't see much changing other than the restoration of the 16th weekly rotation.

Oman Air (WY) - due to start a daily service to Muscat from 1 April. Makes use of the late departure slots, while it beds in I would not expect any quick changes.

Saudia (SV) - have made encouraging progress at MAN, with a 5th weekly rotation maintained. There is the possibility of Ryhad being added to the network, but if the focus is on a daily B789 service that would be solid. Some good recent press recently.

Asian Airlines

Singapore Airlines (SQ) - have made some significant changes at MAN, and from next month will run SIN-MAN-IAH-MAN-SIN. Saw will no doubt hope that removing the MUC stop will see a return to the traffic levels not seen since the early to mid 2000s. Opening the IAH sector is a major vote of confidence in MAN and it is hoped that a daily service can be sustained in time. Given previous success at MAN, it can be hoped that a daily service may follow, and with SQ targeting the North American market MAN might be well placed for further transit flights if/when USPBC opens. Watch this space.

Cathay Pacific (CX) - have had a great time at MAN, but are yet to increase frequency to the anticipated daily operation. In part this is due to more pressing priorities (LGW) and also aircraft and crew availability. We can probably expect a daily B77W reasonably shortly, which is made necessary over the A350 due to cargo loads.

Hainan (HU) - by all accounts a successful launch, and plans were in place to go daily from 1 January. We await news of Xi'An.

------------------------------------------

The main geographic regions where MAN has no airlines are Africa, South America and Oceana. So what about possible new airlines:

DY (Norwegian) - long rumoured to want to open a base and would be expected to go head to head with VS and TCX on TATL but may also consider routes like Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur.

Air China (CA) - Shanghai has been long rumoured and Chengdu has emerged more recently. Expect Shanghai to launch with a fairly short lead in time during the course of 2017. Chengdu remains anyone's guess.

China Eastern (CZ) - have been rumoured at having interest in a route to Guangzhou. This has gone quiet of late, and I would expect Shanghai and probably Chengdu to launch first.

Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA) - I have grouped them together because the only route I think either would conceivably operate would be Tokyo. I understand JAL were interested at one stage, but that seems to have fizzled out. One of the issues is that Japan doesn't really lead anywhere, and so connecting passengers are unlikely to form a major part of the traffic.

Iran Air (IR), Royal Jordanian (RJ), Kuwait Airways (KU) and Gulf Air (GF) - to be honest, any of these airlines could be interested in MAN. The popularity of the North of England has increased significantly over the last few years and it is a short long haul route.

Ethiopian (ET) - addis abba has been rumoured. Seems likely to be tried at some stage. The fleet is due to expand and with USPBC they may consider a transit route.

Air India (AI) - Delhi has been rumoured for some time, as has Mumbai. Perhaps it is not too far away?

Vistara (UK) - a domestic airline for now, but the Mumbai route may be one they are targeting.
Thai Airways (TG) - long rumoured but rarely seen. MAN-BKK is something like the third largest unserved "long haul" route on earth. The numbers are there, but the yield traditionally has not been. There is speculation that TG are to revisit this around W17 so we hope there is some news in this.

Korean Air (KAL) - a more recent addition to the rumour scene, albeit a welcome one.

Malaysian Airlines (MH) - used to operate to MAN in the early 2000s. Would they return? Probably not imminently given their recent issues, but if SQ and TG can succeed, perhaps MH can?

Philippine Airlines (PAL) and Garuda Indonesia (GA) - these may be a long shot, but they consistently show up as popular destinations from MAN.
Sri Lankan (UL) - I believe they used to serve MAN. Sri Lanka is becoming more of a tourist hot spot so there may be scope, but it would be tough to compete with Emirates.

South African Airlines (SAA) - used to serve MAN, but I think it unlikely that they will return.

Qantas (QF) and Air New Zealand (ANZ) - a complete no go for QF - their partnership with EK is a significant reason for EKs success at MAN. ANZ have a moratorium on a one stop routes for now. If they ever add new european routes I expect MAN would be in the discussion.
 
Dobbo - a very clear and interesting personal review of what you consider the future might hold for Manchester.

It will be good to look back in a couple of years to see how your forecast compares with reality.
 
I don't think anything is groundbreaking or has not been discussed on here before!

Food for thought anyway!
 
This is what I found 9 years ago and put it on airliners.net in one of the plentiful MAN threads.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/broader-horizons-for-kuwait-airways-147224.html#.V-RJ4PRTtdI

"Kuwait's national carrier Kuwait Airways has revealed plans to launch direct services to three new international destinations by the end of 2007.

According to the airline's sales and marketing director, Ahmed Al-Hilal, Kuwait Airways aims to introduce direct flights to Beijing, Manchester and South Africa by the end of the year, and will completely restructure its existing network."

Would be good to know what the origin and destinations figures were like back then as with the tremendous growth recently revealed, it would be a better bet than it was then.
 
Great post!

Are the plans still there for a daily Beijing? This would be a great goal to achieve. In my opinion we have a couple of 'goals' that would really consolidate our airports standing:
  • Daily flights to Beijing
  • Daily flights to Hong Kong
  • Flights to Shanghai
  • S Korea and/or Japan
  • India (Delhi and/or Mumbai)
  • South Africa (CPT looks likely, what about JNB?)
  • Flights to Bangkok (Is this the new W17 carrier)
  • Full service carrier to LAX/MIA/YYZ
There would then be some bonuses such as CAN, CTU, KWI, RUH, DTW, SEA, SAN, KUL, XIY, daily to Jeddah (although I feel even 6 weekly would be ample and would very nearly match the frequency of LHR)
 
Also the Chengdu routes conference begins tomorrow, could we get any developments from there?

Well we can see what happens! Got my post in beforehand!

For my own money, the existing carriers changes I am most confident about are CX and EK.

New carriers: the Middle east.
 
Air China-Slots at Shanghai still a major issue. It's not just us being held up, Hainan to Brussels, Air China to Barcelona and other routes also delayed due to the issue.

In terms of the MAN-PVG market, it is something like the 4/5th largest unserved route between China and Europe (circa 50k indirect routings).

I feel confident that it will happen and that when it does happen it will be a sucess.

On a side note, Qantas seem to be kicking the tyres on more European flights. Seems daft to me, but MAN is one of their largest markets with the EK partnership. MAN may be in the frame, but I suspect that their focus will be in the likes of Paris.
 
Also, what are the rumours about Korean Air?

It would be amazing to get an ICN route, the recently launched charters to GLA with 332/333 equipment. Would this not work 5 weekly for MAN? They also have a vey extensive transfer market and an established tech industry.
 
I think the priority for MAN is now India (DEL or BOM). We have Goa but that is pure leisure only with no scope for business links.

Look at it this way:

The USA is pretty much covered now.

China is off to a good start with Beijing and Hong Kong already in the bag and Shanghai on the way.

The Middle East is now pretty much covered with Oman Air on the way.

Cape Town is on the way, we could do with a mid Africa hub in NBO or ADD, but as these would be more transit hubs than business/leisure point to point links, they are not a priority.

South America is a no go for the time being in my opinion and Korea/Japan will come in their own time, it's a big ask for those routes.

Given Air India have just added MAD-DEL which is a much smaller market than MAN, surely the time is now. BOM would be the preferable market as MAN-BOM alone is much bigger than the whole MAD-India market combined!

As much as I would love MAN to be the stop off point for Jet's new USA flights, AMS will be picked as it's already a stop off post for Jet so makes sense. MAN ideally needs to be linked to BOM so Vistara or Jet would be preferable, but, Vistara need to get the aircraft for long haul and Etihad pull the strings at Jet so use the India flights to help fill onwards from AUH so can't see EY giving up that lucrative little ditty.

Come on MAN/AI/JW/UK, what does MAN have to do to get a link for goodness sakes!
 
I think the priority for MAN is now India (DEL or BOM). We have Goa but that is pure leisure only with no scope for business links.

Look at it this way:

The USA is pretty much covered now.

China is off to a good start with Beijing and Hong Kong already in the bag and Shanghai on the way.

The Middle East is now pretty much covered with Oman Air on the way.

Cape Town is on the way, we could do with a mid Africa hub in NBO or ADD, but as these would be more transit hubs than business/leisure point to point links, they are not a priority.

South America is a no go for the time being in my opinion and Korea/Japan will come in their own time, it's a big ask for those routes.

Given Air India have just added MAD-DEL which is a much smaller market than MAN, surely the time is now. BOM would be the preferable market as MAN-BOM alone is much bigger than the whole MAD-India market combined!

As much as I would love MAN to be the stop off point for Jet's new USA flights, AMS will be picked as it's already a stop off post for Jet so makes sense. MAN ideally needs to be linked to BOM so Vistara or Jet would be preferable, but, Vistara need to get the aircraft for long haul and Etihad pull the strings at Jet so use the India flights to help fill onwards from AUH so can't see EY giving up that lucrative little ditty.

Come on MAN/AI/JW/UK, what does MAN have to do to get a link for goodness sakes!
Presuming you know of no discussion between these airlines and MAN then?

Is ET still in 'advanced discussions'?
 
I'm just wondering if the mindset is for Air India "we're doing the UK regions a" in serving Birmingham and linking it so Amritsar through Delhi for the VFR ("visiting friends and relatives") links between the 2 areas, and not focusing in on the potential premium flyers from both BHX and MAN going to BOM for business purposes.

Also in the back of the mind is for Jet to operate BOM-AUH-MAN in addition to the 2 daily EY services, with this becoming, as it were, the 3rd daily EY flight through codesharing.
 
Quite frankly I anticipate a third daily EY flight within the next 18-24 months, if not sooner.

Aside from consolidating networks, India is clearly the largest blind spot in the network now and I would hope to hear something in the next 12 months.
 
Eat have never been in advanced discussions to still be in them?

There have been snippets from Air India and Vistara, but I believe Jet is being firmly held up by Etihad and the latter wanting to prote it's loads from AUH to various European points.
 
Oh, seem to recall you saying Ethiopian were in discussions with MAN.

For EY, perhaps a 789?
 
I've said there may be potential for Ethiopian but not that they were in advanced discussions.
 
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