Archive Route Development & Rumours

[User001]

No Tampa was not the route.

Tunisair still a work in progress.

 

[ethanegcc]

No Tampa was not the route.

Tunisair still a work in progress.

Thank you, would that route be announced tomorrow as there is not much if this week left! Or in the near future?

 

[User001]

Said route will now be a 2018 route.

 

[ethanegcc]

Could it be Detroit? So I guess it will be a while until any announcement. Shame!

Said route will now be a 2018 route.

 

[Aceshigh]

Well it's 3 years away so i would suggest somewhat academic given uncertainty in an uncertain world !

 

[Land23R]

Quite right Aceshigh. Let's see what we finish up with in 2017 before we start taking for granted what may happen in 2018, encouraging though it may be to read about the possibilities.

 

[User001]

2018 isn't 3 years away?

I know maths isn't my strongest point, but, it's 2017 next year, then 2018. Given we are in Novemeber, I make it 13 months away, just over 1 year away?

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Maths aside, caution is warranted. There is a flock of economic black swans on the horizon at the present time, any one of which could seriously destabilise the global economy. No detail required on this forum, just keep in mind that economic difficulties could upset the aviation industry amongst other casualties. New "unpredictable" US Presidency, Euro issues, Deutsche Bank / Italian Banks, derivative exposure, Italy referendum / QuItaly possibility, Abenomics, Middle East, tensions with Russia, South China Sea disputes, terrorism, currency wars, BREXIT challenges / delays / UK election? ... you get the idea. It only takes one upset to crash the growth curve!

 

[Aceshigh]

Well I for one will eat my hat if we get a US service starting 1/1/2018 !

We are talking semantics. I see little point in suggesting an airline will start a service on such a long lead time when there are all manner of factors which could effect it's launch.

It's not being negative it's simply being realistic.

 

[User001]

But routes don't happen overnight, they take years.

Hainan airlines took at least 3 years of negotiations before flights started. Cathay Pacific was in the same region. Routes that are being announced now we're likely 'finalised' months and months ago.

I for one am being realistic, if MAN/Airlines are not looking into their 2018 plans and getting the finer 'nitty gritty' points down, I would be incredibly worried.

 

[Land23R]

Good point User001 about planning timescales. However, I think the issue being raised here is that there are times when even the best laid plans can come adrift, often because of external factors. An obvious example is Delta to Detroit which by all accounts was set to be announced but was postponed, allegedly in the light of BREXIT.

 

[User001]

Of course, plans can be waylaid, but we are talking about plans for 2018 which are being discussed and put into the final stages over the next few months.

Yes, there may be a few that don't make the final draft, but, it doesn't alter the fact we can realistically talk about routes now as they will be in the planning stages.

The route I was talking about has been postponed to 2018 as there were a few late issues to deal with. The fact that they have a year to deal with those issues means it could well happen.

Tampa has been in discussion for 2 years or so. The fact that TPA have just adjusted their incentives, particularly targeting Manchester, means that too has a good chance of happening.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

United Airlines have just confirmed closure of their BFS-EWR route from January, the only scheduled service to NY from Northern Ireland. This follows bad news on the Atlantic for NCL and BHX in recent times. We must be mindful that the UK-US market is in consolidation mode right now. MAN may not escape unscathed. There is a need to nurture and absorb the recent large increases in capacity already offered from here rather than concern ourselves unduly with exponential expansion going forward.

 

[Dobbo]

*IAD-MAN starts quaking in its boots*

 

[Jerry]

United Airlines have just confirmed closure of their BFS-EWR route from January, the only scheduled service to NY from Northern Ireland.

Thought the Northern Irish government were going to subsidise them?

 

[ethanegcc]

I really think IAD is a coup for MAN. If it can just get through this rocky patch, the LFS aren't all that bad.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

The EU ruled the proposed NI deal to be illegal state aid. Airport MD sounds livid. Looks like they've just won afew more friends for BREXIT in Northern Ireland!

 

[Land23R]

I really think IAD is a coup for MAN. If it can just get through this rocky patch, the LFS aren't all that bad.

From the CAA stats for passenger numbers and the TAS magazine listing of flights, I reckon LFs were:
IAD / EWR
June 70% / 74%
July 70% / 76%
Aug 76% / 87%
Sep 82% / 87%

Interestingly, the higher LF in Sep for IAD was when the frequency dropped to 5 x weekly.
The others aren't great for the summer months and EWR with the extra capacity to New York wasn't much better in
the earlier months.

The only thing I would say for IAD is that J class per the sample seat plans I looked at were not too bad. Of the 16 seats, I would say at least 10 were usually occupied and sometimes Business was full or nearly so. But obviously I don't know how that was reflected in the fares paid.

 

[ethanegcc]

Well, if they can maintain the load factors at around 75-80% at a fluctuation of daily/5 weekly and get the yields from J, perhaps we are casting IAD in too much of a negative light.

I know it is on the edge, but as I say if it can pull through and people continue to support it, there may be hope...

 

[User001]

Correndon Airlines began their 1 weekly RAK-LGW-MAN-RAK flight today. Will operate Friday's only until April.