2016

[Ray Finkle]

A couple more to be added.

New routes - Thomson - Punta Cana (weekly), Dubai (weekly)

Increasing capacity - Monarch - Barcelona (+2x weekly), Gibraltar (+ 1x weekly), Ibiza (+1x weekly),Thomson - Skiatos (+1x weekly)

what are the actual new routes and airlines for BHX in 2016 only?

New airlines to start in 2016 are Blue Air, Czech Airlines, Iberia Express, Qatar Airways and potentially Beijing Capital.

The new routes from exisiting airlines as said with the addition of Wizz to Bucharest which starts in May.

 

[nwoody2001]

Fare comment User001, the title of this thread changed part way through the discussion and the list has just been repeats, an updated list for 2016. Still an impressive list if you ask me!!!!

New Airlines into BHX (As of the start of 2016)

• Beijing Capital Airlines – Beijing (1x weekly), Hangzhou (1x weekly)**

• Blue Air – Bucharest (2x weekly)

• CSA Czech Airlines – Prague (5x weekly)

• Iberia Express – Madrid (4x weekly)

• Qatar – Doha (8x weekly)

New Routes into BHX (As of the start of 2016)

• Flybe – Knock (6x weekly), Rotterdam (12x weekly)

• Ryanair – Corfu (2x weekly), Madrid (4x weekly), Verona (2x weekly), Vilnius (2x weekly)

• Thomson – Punta Cana (1x weekly), Dubai (1x weekly)

• Vuelling – Alicante (3x weekly)

• Wizz Air – Bucharest (2x weekly), Poznan (2x Weekly)

Increasing capacity at BHX

• Aer Lingus – Dublin (+ 14x weekly)

• Emirates – Dubai (1x 77W upgrade to 1x A388)**

• Flybe – Aberdeen ( +7x weekly), Amsterdam (+7x weekly), Bergerac (+1x weekly), Berlin (+6x weekly), Biarritz (+1x weekly), Dusseldorf (+7x weekly), Edinburgh (+7x weekly), Glasgow (+7x weekly), Hannover (+7x weekly), Milan (+13x weekly), Stuttgart (+5x weekly)

• Icelandair – Reykjavik (+1x weekly)

• Monarch – Barcelona (+2x weekly), Gibraltar (+1x weekly), Ibiza (+1x weekly)

• Ryanair – Alicante (+ 4x weekly), Barcelona (+ 2x weekly), Dublin (+ 14x weekly), Malaga (+ 1x weekly), Malta (+ 1x weekly), Palma (+ 2x Weekly)

• SAS – Copenhagen (+ 4x weekly)

• Thomson – Skiatos (+1x weekly)

• Turkish Airlines – Istanbul (+ 2x weekly)**

• Wizz Air – Warsaw (+1x weekly)

** Strongly rumoured but yet to be formally announced.
Surely there is an additional 800,000 seats in there somewhere???

 

[Ray Finkle]

Surely there is an additional 800,000 seats in there somewhere???

I'm starting to think so.

We're still waiting for official conformation of Turkish going double daily and the exact date Emirates will start an A380. Beijing Capital Airlines will know soon if they have permission but I imagine there will need to be many discussions had so it may be a few weeks yet. I'd feel more confident if we could get a new route or two out of Norwegian and possibly a couple from Wizz. Who knows, there maybe more surprises to come.

I think it may come down to load factors now, extra seats is one thing but filling them is another. Take flights heading east, with Turkish and Emirates increasing capacity and Qatar joining in we have alot of extra seats. Will the existing pax just be spread more thinly or will new pax be persuaded to use BHX rather than trek to LHR? This could be key. William Pearson and his team have done an unbelievable job so now it's our turn to make use of what is on offer

 

[nwoody2001]

And an update for this based on recent news.....

New Airlines into BHX (As of the start of 2016)

• Beijing Capital Airlines – Beijing (1x weekly), Hangzhou (1x weekly)**

• Blue Air – Bucharest (2x weekly)

• CSA Czech Airlines – Prague (5x weekly)

• Iberia Express – Madrid (4x weekly)

• Qatar – Doha (8x weekly)

New Routes into BHX (As of the start of 2016)

• Flybe – Knock (6x weekly), Rotterdam (12x weekly)

• Ryanair – Corfu (2x weekly), Madrid (4x weekly), Verona (2x weekly), Vilnius (2x weekly)

• Thomson – Punta Cana (1x weekly), Dubai (1x weekly)

• Vuelling – Alicante (3x weekly)

• Wizz Air – Bucharest (2x weekly), Poznan (2x Weekly), Wrocraw (2x weekly)

Increasing capacity at BHX

• Aer Lingus – Dublin (+ 14x weekly)

• Emirates – Dubai (1x 77W upgrade to 1x A388)**

• Flybe – Aberdeen ( +7x weekly), Amsterdam (+7x weekly), Bergerac (+1x weekly), Berlin (+6x weekly), Biarritz (+1x weekly), Dusseldorf (+7x weekly), Edinburgh (+7x weekly), Glasgow (+7x weekly), Hannover (+7x weekly), Milan (+13x weekly), Stuttgart (+5x weekly)

• Icelandair – Reykjavik (+1x weekly)

• KLM – Amsterdam (+5x weekly)

• Monarch – Barcelona (+2x weekly), Gibraltar (+1x weekly), Ibiza (+1x weekly)

• Ryanair – Alicante (+ 4x weekly), Barcelona (+ 2x weekly), Dublin (+ 14x weekly), Malaga (+ 1x weekly), Malta (+ 1x weekly), Palma (+ 2x Weekly)

• SAS – Copenhagen (+ 4x weekly)

• Thomson – Skiatos (+1x weekly)

• Turkish Airlines – Istanbul (+ 2x weekly)**

• Wizz Air – Warsaw (+1x weekly)

** Strongly rumoured but yet to be formally announced.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Thanks for the update I'm really looking forward to summer, would it be too greedy to ask for one more big announcement before Christmas? :smile:

What stands out for me is that we have five long haul services launching next year (New airline to PEK and new routes to DWC, HGH, DOH and PUJ), pretty amazing for BHX :smile:

 

[nwoody2001]

well I believe the 18th December is Emirates 15th anniversary at BHX... I know nothing but im hoping it will be an eventful day?!?!

 

[Ray Finkle]

15 years.......how quickly time has gone and how far things have come during that time. My memory isn't the greatest but I seem to remember some flights seeing as little as 50 pax on their A330's in the early days. Similar to Turkish I'm glad they stuck at it :smile:

 

[IanFarquharson]

EK388 Update - 3 new fixed ground power units arrived last month for stand 54C yet to be fitted ,

 

[Ray Finkle]

Good to hear.

I'm assuming that the majority of the works on stand will be done after the busy Christmas period?

 

[nwoody2001]

it might only be a small point and a small update but big consequences... we can now move the '**' caveat away from the Emirates A388 rumour... its confirmed....

New Airlines into BHX (As of the start of 2016)

• Beijing Capital Airlines – Beijing (1x weekly), Hangzhou (1x weekly)**

• Blue Air – Bucharest (2x weekly)

• CSA Czech Airlines – Prague (5x weekly)

• Iberia Express – Madrid (4x weekly)

• Qatar – Doha (8x weekly)

New Routes into BHX (As of the start of 2016)

• Flybe – Knock (6x weekly), Rotterdam (12x weekly)

• Ryanair – Corfu (2x weekly), Madrid (4x weekly), Verona (2x weekly), Vilnius (2x weekly)

• Thomson – Punta Cana (1x weekly), Dubai (1x weekly)

• Vuelling – Alicante (3x weekly)

• Wizz Air – Bucharest (2x weekly), Poznan (2x Weekly), Wrocraw (2x weekly)

Increasing capacity at BHX

• Aer Lingus – Dublin (+ 14x weekly)

• Emirates – Dubai (1x 77W upgrade to 1x A388)

• Flybe – Aberdeen ( +7x weekly), Amsterdam (+7x weekly), Bergerac (+1x weekly), Berlin (+6x weekly), Biarritz (+1x weekly), Dusseldorf (+7x weekly), Edinburgh (+7x weekly), Glasgow (+7x weekly), Hannover (+7x weekly), Milan (+13x weekly), Stuttgart (+5x weekly)

• Icelandair – Reykjavik (+1x weekly)

• KLM – Amsterdam (+5x weekly)

• Monarch – Barcelona (+2x weekly), Gibraltar (+1x weekly), Ibiza (+1x weekly)

• Ryanair – Alicante (+ 4x weekly), Barcelona (+ 2x weekly), Dublin (+ 14x weekly), Malaga (+ 1x weekly), Malta (+ 1x weekly), Palma (+ 2x Weekly)

• SAS – Copenhagen (+ 4x weekly)

• Thomson – Skiatos (+1x weekly)

• Turkish Airlines – Istanbul (+ 2x weekly)**

• Wizz Air – Warsaw (+1x weekly)

** Strongly rumoured but yet to be formally announced.

 

[nwoody2001]

With us all making predictions as to where BHX will be in 12 months time, I thought it would be interesting to chart the growth of BHX over the last 15 compared to the likes of LTN, EDI and GLA as can be seen on the table below:



A few things really stick out to me....

1 - BHX growth in the last 12 months really see goes to show, how for the first time, the airport is finally coming out of the period of stagnation which has blighted the airport for the last 10 years or so. As many of us would freely admit, we would complain that airport management were doing nothing to attract new routes but actually, and not a second too soon, their hard work is being rewarded...

2 - As of the end of 2015 (figures predicted based on 12 month growth figures), there will be between 1m-1.5m gaps separating LTN, EDI, BHX and GLA. With current projections, if anyone is at risk of being over taken, its BHX at risk from GLA, however, I think/hope that 2016 will see a change in this. Im hoping BHX will afterall see between 8-10% in 2015 compared to the 4.9% we are currently seeing.

3 - LTN, EDI and GLA have all see between 9-17% growth in 2016, but I do ask myself if this is sustainable. LTN and EDI I believe are heavily constrained with regard to space to put planes and with GLAs growth largely down to RYR moving from PIK to GLA, will they see similar growth next year. With the expectation of LTN which seems to be on acid at the moment, I hope BHX will see bigger % growth that EDI and GLA in 2016.

Also, some other food for though. since 2000, LTN and grown 97%, EDI 101%, BHX 34% and GLA 25%...

so role on 2106, I wonder how this graph will change!?

 

[Ray Finkle]

Very interesting, thanks for doing it.

2003-2013 looks very grim indeed apart from a spike in 2008, it can clearly be seen where the recession took hold.

I still think 11 mppa is doable next year, even more so with the Emirates news, but EDI seems to be matching BHX when it comes to route announcements so they'll most likely stay ahead of us. One thing I will be interested in is how our Qatar loads compare to theirs, especially as EDI started at 4x weekly whereas we start at 8x weekly.

Luton are booming at the moment and will only get stronger when their works are done. I think to even get near them we'd need another airline to open a decent base but if the rumours are true that Vueling are planning something big at Luton then it may be more difficult still. They could really benefit with the delay in the Heathrow decision.

Two goals for 2017, some more long haul leisure routes (Las Vegas, Cuba and Vancouver) with improved frequency to Florida and another based airline, preferably Norwegian or Easyjet? :smile:

 

[nwoody2001]

so the question is, where is the next big step of growth coming from? An existing carrier looking to block out competition or a new kid on the block????

The reality is, if BHX is to keep up with its competition and hopefully overtake others, low/mid frequency single routes by single airlines are important, but it wont be enough to turn the fortunes of BHX around... What is needed is major growth from an existing carrier or a new carrier on the block to rock the boat!!

We have already seen the likes of W8, DY and VY join the party in 2015 and will provide between 28-32 flights a week out of BHX in 2016, and increase form 12 flights in 2015... some extra 300-350,000 seats, RYR respond by increasing capacity from BHX by 25% to 1.75m seats, and increase of a further 350,000 seats and BE also respond to increase capacity by circa 18-20% to provide a similar capacity of around 1.75m. Add to that Emirates, and Qatar and all the other new routes with CSA, Iberia, Blue Air etc, its easy to see where an additional million pax could come from....?

so how do we get such trajectory to continue....?

 

[Brum X]

I think the next thing that BHX need to do is get a new airline to have a base here with 2/3 aircraft. I know we keep saying this but Norweigan is the ideal candidate and they serve destinations that would be popular with BHX passengers, add to that the long haul proposals that they have for BHX then you can see it is a win win situation. Also Wizz Air to add circa 3/4 more new routes next year from BHX and a couple of missing euro capitals from Monarch (Lisbon etc etc) and I would be happy.

Long haul in my opionion needs to be around the obvious missing bits and not BHX trying hard for the "prestige" routes, after all the general public are not going to think of BHX to Beijing if you cannot catch regular flights to places like Orlando, Toronto (year round) and as already mentioned popular places such as Las Vegas and Cuba. This needs to be a big priority for the BHX team and I think in 2016, progress will be made.

And finally a couple more Euro flag carriers, after all BHX has tried hard for years to be seen as a full service airline airport, why now change to be seen as a lo cost airport, there needs to be a balance and this is something that BHX is normally good at. Finnair to Helsinki, TAP to Lisbon and Alitalia to Rome spring to mind.

If BHX can do this in 2016 then I firmly believe our growth with continue to near 12 million for 2017 :shok:

 

[jfy1999]

In addition to the above I hope BHX will really try and get Ryanair on side, I know they've started three new routes (not counting Vilnius) but none of those are new destinations for BHX. Like Norwegian I think many of their destinations would be popular. Whether they'd be high-yielding is another matter.

I have a bit of a Ryanair wish list here, it is that time of year after all...any one of these would be very welcome (all of them at once is definitely too much!): Londonderry, Rome (FCO operations have recently started), Trieste, Bergamo, Bologna or Brindisi, Pisa, Cagliari, Catania or Palermo, Bari, Bordeaux, Marseille, Carcassonne, Limoges or Montpellier, Valencia, Seville, Reus, Eindhoven, Berlin-Schönefeld, Cologne or Bremen, Oslo, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Riga, Gothenburg, Billund, Rzeszow, Warsaw and Budapest (give Wizz some competition), Athens, Thessaloniki, and Lisbon or Porto (but only if TAP don't start).

 

[Daza]

jfy1999 FR have tried several of the listed routes from Birmingham. Trieste, Bergamo, Reus, Oslo, Billund and Budapest have all been operated. Either they didn't attract enough passengers (Trieste and Oslo come to mind) or Ryanair fall out with the airport (BUD comes to mind). Other routes they just end even with great load factors like OPO. Bergamo was started at the same time as MON started Milan then when MON withdrew so did FR. Thats the issue with FR they do tend to throw their toys out of the pram if everything doesn't go their way.
Daza

 

[Ray Finkle]

the general public are not going to think of BHX to Beijing if you cannot catch regular flights to places like Orlando, Toronto (year round) and as already mentioned popular places such as Las Vegas and Cuba. This needs to be a big priority for the BHX team and I think in 2016, progress will be made.

Totally agree mate, if people feel the need to go elsewhere to reach such a popular destination as Orlando then it doesn't fill them with much confidence that other routes would be served. Tom Screen said that they were in talks with airlines for routes to the USA and the Caribbean for 2017. Hopefully they'll be successful as it's probably our weakest area now.

I think to achieve significant growth beyond next year we need a base from either Norwegian or Easyjet and one that will keep growing at a steady pace. I don't want to sound negative as I'm really looking forwards to next year but it could be argued that much of our recent expansion is getting to where we 'should' be. Madrid, Warsaw, Budapest, Prague, Lisbon etc should not have remained unserved for as long as they did, but they're back now and we have to make the most of it.

Finnair are a matter of when rather than if, I don't see why Wizz couldn't have 10 routes or so in the next two years, with some increased frequencies too they could become a key player. Ryanair have shown that left alone they'll just plod along, however, as soon as a bit of competition arrives on the scene then suddenly we see new routes and increased frequencies. I'd like to see another based carrier, firstly to add growth and secondly to stimulate a bit of healthy competition (something which is also needed in the long haul leisure department).

 

[Ray Finkle]

An update to nwoody's list.

New Airlines into BHX (As of the start of 2016)

• Beijing Capital Airlines – Beijing (1x weekly), Hangzhou (1x weekly)

• Blue Air – Bucharest (2x weekly)

• CSA Czech Airlines – Prague (5x weekly)

• Iberia Express – Madrid (4x weekly)

• Qatar – Doha (8x weekly)

New Routes into BHX (As of the start of 2016)

• Monarch - Lisbon (4x weekly), Madrid (3x weekly)

• Norwegian - Tenerife (2x weekly), Las Palmas (1x weekly) both new for summer

• Flybe – Knock (6x weekly), Rotterdam (12x weekly)

• Ryanair – Corfu (2x weekly), Madrid (4x weekly), Verona (2x weekly), Vilnius (2x weekly)

• Thomson – Punta Cana (1x weekly), Dubai (1x weekly)

• Vuelling – Alicante (3x weekly)

• Wizz Air – Bucharest (2x weekly), Poznan (2x Weekly), Wrocraw (2x weekly), Sofia (2x weekly)

Increasing capacity at BHX

• Aer Lingus – Dublin (+ 14x weekly)

• Emirates – Dubai (1x 77W upgrade to 1x A388, 1x 3 class 77W to 1x 2 class 77W)

• Flybe – Aberdeen ( +7x weekly), Amsterdam (+7x weekly), Bergerac (+1x weekly), Berlin (+6x weekly), Biarritz (+1x weekly), Dusseldorf (+7x weekly), Edinburgh (+7x weekly), Glasgow (+7x weekly), Hannover (+7x weekly), Milan (+13x weekly), Stuttgart (+5x weekly)

• Icelandair – Reykjavik (+1x weekly)

• KLM – Amsterdam (+5x weekly)

• Monarch – Barcelona (+2x weekly), Gibraltar (+1x weekly), Ibiza (+1x weekly), Rome (+1 weekly), Lanzarote (+1 weekly), Gran Canaria (+1 weekly), Alicante (+2 weekly), Fuerteventura (+1x weekly), Malaga (+2 weekly), Palma (+2 weekly), Tenerife (+2 weekly), Dubrovnik (+1 weekly)

• Norwegian - Barcelona (+1x weekly), Gran Canaria (+1 weekly)

• Ryanair – Alicante (+ 4x weekly), Barcelona (+ 2x weekly), Dublin (+ 14x weekly), Malaga (+ 1x weekly), Malta (+ 1x weekly), Palma (+ 2x Weekly)

• SAS – Copenhagen (+ 4x weekly)

• Thomson – Skiatos (+1x weekly), Montego Bay (+1 weekly), Sal (+1 weekly)

• Thomas Cook - Banjul (+1 weekly)

• Turkish Airlines – Istanbul (+ 2x weekly)

• Wizz Air – Warsaw (+1x weekly)

 

[Brum X]

I think the next thing that BHX need to do is get a new airline to have a base here with 2/3 aircraft. I know we keep saying this but Norweigan is the ideal candidate and they serve destinations that would be popular with BHX passengers, add to that the long haul proposals that they have for BHX then you can see it is a win win situation. Also Wizz Air to add circa 3/4 more new routes next year from BHX and a couple of missing euro capitals from Monarch (Lisbon etc etc) and I would be happy.

Long haul in my opionion needs to be around the obvious missing bits and not BHX trying hard for the "prestige" routes, after all the general public are not going to think of BHX to Beijing if you cannot catch regular flights to places like Orlando, Toronto (year round) and as already mentioned popular places such as Las Vegas and Cuba. This needs to be a big priority for the BHX team and I think in 2016, progress will be made.

And finally a couple more Euro flag carriers, after all BHX has tried hard for years to be seen as a full service airline airport, why now change to be seen as a lo cost airport, there needs to be a balance and this is something that BHX is normally good at. Finnair to Helsinki, TAP to Lisbon and Alitalia to Rome spring to mind.

If BHX can do this in 2016 then I firmly believe our growth with continue to near 12 million for 2017 :shok:

I got my Lisbon from Monarch, i wrote the above before i knew about Monarch, LOL

 

[Ray Finkle]

As it's fairly quiet at the moment anyone fancy doing a 'wish list' for 2016 going into 2017? Just for a bit of fun.

Here's mine.

Another based airline - If the current growth is to continue and we are to head towards 12 mppa then I believe we need another base. Norwegian or Easyjet would be ideal and I hope a base from either is a high priority.

Florida - Hopefully another high priority. Thomson, Thomas Cook, Norwegian, Virgin Holidays.....I'm not bothered who.

Canada - More to Toronto and the addition of Vancouver. Already mentioned by BHX so hopefully something is happening.

Las Vegas and Cuba - See Florida above.

Mumbai - The next logical step in India. Norwegian have mentioned it as a possibility but I'd be happy for Air India.

China - Beijing Capital will be announced in the next few weeks. All of the 'market tests' have been successful, time to take the next step.

USA - I'd like another large US hub, ORD, IAD, PHL or ATL, probably seasonal to begin with.

Scandinavia - Finnair to Helsinki is apparently happening. If Norwegian could add Oslo and SAS bring Stockholm back on a CRJ I'd be happy.

Europe - Much better than 12 months ago. Lisbon needs to succeed and I'd like to see Porto, Florence and Toulouse return. The likes of Bilbao, Seville and Valencia would also be nice.

Wizz Air - Continue what they're doing. Cluj, Iasi, Lublin, Riga, Sofia and Kosice would all be welcome along with frequency increases to the likes of BUD and OTP. Once the more popular routes become established I wonder if they may be tempted to have a dabble with some more 'daring' routes such as Skopje or Belgrade.

Ryanair - Great new routes to Corfu and Verona but Madrid and other increases seem to have been added only in response to the competition. A fifth based would be nice but I won't hold my breath.

Asia - It would be nice to eventually get a link to the likes of HKG, SIN, KUL or BKK. This may be another couple of years away yet though.