Passenger number prediction thread 2016.

[Ray Finkle]

Just for a bit of fun (if everyone fancies it?) I thought we could do a 'guess the pax number' thread and see whose prediction is closest?

If people fancy having a go PM me your predictions for 2016 (or add them here if you'd prefer but everyone will see them) by the end of Dec and I'll add them all in one go. If people want I can then revise each persons numbers in Jan when the 2015 total comes in. I think it's best to wait till the end of Dec in case we have any more announcements.

I've started the thread now to gauge interest, as said it's just for a bit of fun but aswell as the yearly total there is the option to do month by month predictions too. Would people fancy taking part or shall I delete the thread?

:smile:

The final guesses :smile:

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Brummiegem - 11,195,000

Ray Finkle - 11,150,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

jfy1999 - 11,034,000

user001 - 11,009,000.

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brum X - 11,000,000

andrew.clarkson - 10,939,742.40

Aviador - 10,895,000

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

Jon Dempsey - 10,750,000

Seasider - 10 621 794

 

[Aviador]

So how many new routes are we looking at again before I make my prediction?

 

[Ray Finkle]

Some interesting numbers so far :smile:

 

[Ray Finkle]

So how many new routes are we looking at again before I make my prediction?

For those unfamiliar with BHX but still fancy a go.

New services:

Beijing Capital - Not confirmed yet but 2x weekly A332 has been applied for.

Blue Air - 2x weekly 734 to Bucharest.

Czech Airlines - 5x weekly A319 to Prague.

Iberia - 4x weekly A320 to Madrid.

Qatar Airways - 8x weekly 788 to Doha.

New routes:

Flybe - Knock 6x weekly (March), Rotterdam 12x weekly (Sept).

Ryanair – Corfu 2x weekly, Madrid 4x weekly, Verona 2x weekly, Vilnius 2x weekly.

Thomson – Punta Cana 1x weekly (carries on into winter), Dubai 1x weekly Nov-Feb.

Vueling – Alicante 3x weekly

Wizz Air - Poznan 2x weekly, Bucharest 2x weekly (from May).

Increases:

Aer Lingus - Dublin +14 weekly.

Emirates - +7 weekly (two class 77W).

Flybe – Aberdeen +7x weekly, Amsterdam +7x weekly, Bergerac +1x weekly, Berlin +6x weekly, Biarritz +1x weekly, Dusseldorf +7x weekly, Edinburgh +7x weekly, Glasgow +7x weekly, Hannover +7x weekly, Milan +13x weekly, Stuttgart +5x weekly.

Icelandair – Reykjavik +1 weekly

Lufthansa/Eurowings - Munich all Airbus A319/320/321. Dusseldorf all A320 from Oct. Hamburg 2x weekly A320 from April.

Monarch – Barcelona +2x weekly, Gibraltar +1x weekly, Ibiza +1x weekly.

Ryanair – Alicante + 4x weekly, Barcelona + 2x weekly, Dublin + 14x weekly, Malaga + 1x weekly, Malta + 1x weekly, Palma + 2x Weekly.

SAS - Copenhagen +4 weekly (CRJ).

Thomas Cook - Possible extra based for W16/17.

Thomson - 7 based aircraft with a few increases.

Vueling - Barcelona +1 weekly.

Wizz Air - Warsaw +1 weekly.

Rumours:

Emirates A388 sometime in 2016 (March is mentioned).

Finnair - New route to Helsinki.

Wizz Air - Two new routes.

Norwegian - Oslo and possibly one other.

Turkish - Possibly +2 weekly.

Westjet - BHX mentioned but no date given, could be 2017.

 

[Ray Finkle]

So people know where we are now pax wise, below is roughly what we're looking at this year.

Calendar year to date:

Jan - 611,467
Feb - 629,843
Mar - 730,870
Apr - 771,483
May - 794,526
Jun - 989,101
Jul - 1,071,661
Aug - 1,138,448
Sep - 1,042,560
Oct - 921,150

Total - 8,701,109

2014 figures for the last two months of the year were:

Nov - 646,275
Dec - 621,596

With 5% growth for each Nov 15 would see approx 678,589 and Dec 652,675 totalling 1,331,264. This added to what we have seen so far would put BHX on 10,032,373 for the 2015 calendar year.

Happy guessing :smile:

 

[jfy1999]

It'll be the first full year of operations for all our new airlines, which all started around the middle of this year (apart from Icelandair). That has to be taken into account. I'd say the amount of new capacity that we'll have next year is much more than was added this year.

Here are some new routes from this year and next year where I think the increase in capacity can be compared.

Norwegian (this year they would have had 11 weekly but dropped 1 Madrid flight and are now 10 weekly with potential increases next year) and Ryanair (whose new routes will also add 10 weekly flights next year, but they have some fantastic increases on existing routes).

American and Qatar, although Qatar are using larger aircraft on more flights, so they'll give us a much bigger increase than American did.

Vueling and Wizz Air. Wizz came in later this year so their impact will be felt more next year when they'll both have around the same number of flights per week to BHX, but with two new destinations rumoured for Wizz they could soon surpass Vueling.

I'd say the new routes plus the first full year of operations for the carriers that started this year could push us up 3% next year, which would give us over 10,330,000 passengers in 2016. Add the increases from existing carriers and the possibility that all the rumours will come to fruition, and another 3% increase could be out there, giving us an increase of 6% on this year and a total of around 10,634,000 passengers, which is my guess.

This year looks to be "just" a 3% increase on last year, so my guess might seem optimistic at first sight, but there is also the factor I mentioned earlier: most of our new airlines have only been operating for just over half of 2015, whereas 2016 will be their first full year. I'll be looking forward to it whatever happens :s_thumbsup

 

[nwoody2001]

maybe I'm being an optimist, and at the end of the day I'm not a specialist in the field....

However, I personally think Ray and jfy I think you're being pretty conservative in your views....

Ray, firstly, the 5% YTD growth includes the savage cutting for Flybe and Monarch routes of last winter, which this year we wont (hopefully) see a repeat of. Also, since emirates started their 3x daily in Sept, pax figures have grown circa 3% month on month. As we go out of the summer season into the winter season, with emirates frequencies staying the same, id anticipate the growth with this route being a lot more pronounced. with emirates and significant increases from the likes of Monarch and the presence of WZ, VY and DY (none of which were around last winter), im hoping growth in the later months of this year and ealy next will be circa 5-10%. IM still hopeful of a 10.2m figure for 2015

jfy, I think your figures wildy underestimate the impact QR and EK will have on figures.... 2016 will benefit from 9 months of QR @8x weekly and 9 months of EK 3rd daily which 2015 didn't have. An 8x weekly 788 (2 class) from QR and 1x daily 773 (2x class) from EK will deliver 210,000 seats and 305,000 seats respectively a year, a total of over 500,000 on those routes alone. Ok, 2016 with only see 9 months of each but this still equates to circa 160,000 seats with QR and 230,000 seats with EK, a total of 390,000 seats. Even at a conservative 70% LF , that's an extra 275,000 pax annually for BHX in 2016 from just QR and EK alone.... add to that just the confirmed new routes next year on the A319/A320/737 routes alone, that's another increase of 28 weekly flights at over 500,000 seats per annum.... and that's not even including increases in frequencies!!!

I personally hope for growth of between 8-10% next year...

 

[Aviador]

I'm going with 10,450,000, posibly over optimistic but why not.

 

[IanFarquharson]

I have already submitted my 2016 estimate to Ray and it is 11,000,001.

I agree with Neil 8% next year is very achievable.

Ian

 

[nwoody2001]

I submitted my estimate of 10% at 11,250,000... i'm counting on the A388 coming along though

 

[Aviador]

Have I severely under estimated? I'm posting from my mobile at the moment so I'll return later with a new estimate after I've had chance to review all the new services.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BHX is currently just over 5% up on the same time last year (CAA stats to the end of October 2015) with the 12-month rolling year total standing at 10,074,224, so to reach 11 million by the end of 2016 will almost certainly require a 8%-9% increase for that calendar year (depending on the exact figure at the end of 2015).

Lots of new airlines, new routes and increases in frequency on existing routes but around 900,000 additional punters will be required to reach 11 million next year - 900,000 additional journeys to be precise as most people make return journeys and some do multiple trips each year - but aviation stats usually speak of passengers so I'll stick with that.

It seems a huge ask but, short of some unforeseen event or events such as a natural disaster or terrorism seriously affecting the airline market, it might just be possible.

BHX handled 9.698 million passengers in 2014, an increase of 6.4% on 2013. Currently it's 5.1% up so if that carried through till the end of this year 2015 would actually see in the region of an extra 490,000 passengers. Therefore, given all the increases in services perviously mentioned, 11 million might not be that far away.

At this stage I'll say 10.8 million for 2016 but if more announcements are made that substantially increase next year’s offering then clearly we might see 11 million or thereabouts.

I add the caveat that I’m not intimately acquainted with the BHX scene and have based what is no more than a ‘guesstimate’ on the past two years’ performance at the airport.

 

[justplanecrazy]

Count me in and I'm going for 11,116,245 and I'm too counting on the A380 happening.

 

[Ray Finkle]

So far we have,

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

Ray Finkle - 11,050,000

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brummiegem - 10,925,500

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

Aviador - 10,450,000?

jfy1999 - 10,330,000 (after what nwoody wrote are you staying with that?)

I'll do the final list at the end of Dec in case anybody wants to change their estimate.

 

[Brummiegem]

Hmmm,some interesting figures being talked about here.
I wonder what the figures would be if Enfida and Sharm hadn't been suspended although probably in the great scheme of things irrelevant.
I actually think we will see at least 2/3 more announcements before spring kicks in but I also believe that 11 million might be out of reach,only just though!!!
My estimate is 10,925,500.
I think the biggest worry will be if we see another terror attack on a flight or airport.
We wait to see what happens with baited breath and with a few nerves as well.

 

[jfy1999]

I'd say the new routes plus the first full year of operations for the carriers that started this year could push us up 3% next year, which would give us over 10,330,000 passengers in 2016. Add the increases from existing carriers and the possibility that all the rumours will come to fruition, and another 3% increase could be out there, giving us an increase of 6% on this year and a total of around 10,634,000 passengers, which is my guess.

So far we have,

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

Ray Finkle - 11,050,000

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brummiegem - 10,925,500

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

Aviador - 10,450,000?

jfy1999 - 10,330,000 (after what nwoody wrote are you staying with that?)

I'll do the final list at the end of Dec in case anybody wants to change their estimate.

Read my post again please folks!

 

[Ray Finkle]

Ooops. Please accept my apologies :blush:

Try again

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

Ray Finkle - 11,050,000

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brummiegem - 10,925,500

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

jfy1999 - 10,634,000

Seasider - 10 621 794

Aviador - 10,590,000

 

[Seasider]

I'm up for a bit of fun. How about 10 621 794, I don't like round numbers.

 

[Aviador]

Can you amend my figure to 10,590,000.

I think we may see passenger numbers to Turkey drop off with the prospect of war in the region.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Updated.

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

Ray Finkle - 11,050,000

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brummiegem - 10,925,500

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

jfy1999 - 10,634,000

Seasider - 10 621 794

Aviador - 10,590,000