Passenger number prediction thread 2016.

[Ray Finkle]

So the final total for 2015 is 10,188,889.

If anyone wants to adjust their guess then feel free to add a new estimate here before the end of Jan when I'll add them all to the first post. If anyone wants a reminder of announcements for the coming year then they can be found HERE.

Remember, there's a bottle of plonk at stake :smile:

 

[Aviador]

I'm sticking with my prediction now. As I said before, flights to Turkey stand to take a real tumble this year. It's right next door to Syria and I think many people will be re-evaluating whether it's worth booking holidays to the country when things are so volatile in the region. Furthermore, you're not covered by the European Health Insurance Card scheme the (E111) should anything go wrong there not to mention, most private insurance companies wont cover you in the event of a terrorist attack.

 

[Brum X]

Congratulations to BHX for achieving nearly 10.2 million passengers in 2015. This is a great milestone for the airport and one that we have been waiting for, for many years. Here to an even better 2016.

:hatsoff:

 

[nwoody2001]

indeed, a great year.... and so great, im happy to stick with my original estimate of 11,250,000 for 2016

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think I'm going to raise my guess a little, possibly closer to 11.2m.

 

[Brum X]

Hi Ray, can you please amend mine to 11,000,000 please. Thanks :good:

 

[Ray Finkle]

Done.

I've added another 100k onto my guess too :smile:

 

[Ray Finkle]

The final guesses.

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Brummiegem - 11,195,000

Ray Finkle - 11,150,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

jfy1999 - 11,034,000

user001 - 11,009,000.

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brum X - 11,000,000

andrew.clarkson - 10,939,742.40

Aviador - 10,895,000

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

Jon Dempsey - 10,750,000

Seasider - 10 621 794

 

[Aviador]

How many people forgot about this thread?

Well we're approaching October rapidly. Can we all agree on a date we want to use for the rolling year passenger prediction seen as though the CAA figures are so far behind?

Does BHX release it's own figures, if so what date does it normally release them?

 

[nwoody2001]

yes, BHX in recent months have been pretty good at releasing their own figures... normally around the 5th-12th of the following month!

 

[nwoody2001]

Interestingly, as of the end of August 2016, the rolling 12 month Passenger was 11,070,000 pax, meaning the following people are already out of the race, only four of us left!!!

The final guesses.

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Brummiegem - 11,195,000

Ray Finkle - 11,150,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

jfy1999 - 11,034,000 (Passed!)

user001 - 11,009,000 (Passed!)

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001 (Passed!)

Brum X - 11,000,000 (Passed!)

andrew.clarkson - 10,939,742 (Passed!)

Aviador - 10,895,000 (Passed!)

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000 (Passed!)

Jon Dempsey - 10,750,000 (Passed!)

Seasider - 10 621 794 (Passed!)

 

[Brummiegem]

I couldn't be happier if my prediction is wrong.
It means that most of us underestimated the progress BHX has made this year.
I personally think the next couple of years are going to be more of a challenge,mainly down to uncertainty over Brexit.I do hope that the powers that be start moving this on sooner rather than later though.
The next 12 months should see 12 million pax pass through,and who knows what,if any new routes might be announced then that would add more to the total.
The future certainly is looking good,let's hope it continues

 

[Aviador]

So for winning purposes are we going for the a November or a December figure? It would be nice for the winner to receive their gift prior to Christmas is what I'm thinking.

 

[nwoody2001]

hmmmmmm..... which ever calculation increases my chances of winning....

the guess was 12 months in a calendar year.... maybe use the first 11 months of 2016 to project a good stab at a 2016 figure for the winner???? This allows us to announce the winner after Novs figures....

That said, not to be cocky, but as soon as we pass 11,222,500 pax, I win!!! that means we only need an additional 152,500 pax in the next 4 months #justsaying!

 

[Ray Finkle]

I hope that you win Neil, to pass 11 1/4 million would be a great achievement

 

[Ray Finkle]

P.s start those brains working for 2017's competition

 

[Brummiegem]

I think nwoody should be disqualified for his cheek

 

[ronnoc1k8]

11,075,001 for my guess.

 

[User001]

Well, if we are kicking off 2017, then rolling year to December 17 I predict 12.8 million.

Based on growth this year, I would have quite happily gone for 13.1, but I think all UK airports may hit a few bumps next year.

As we know, American will have gone by January, and with the Monarch issues this weekend, you only have to think had the worst happened, then that's 1.1million seats wiped out. Yes, some capacity may have been regained through other carriers, but, it puts a dent in the figures.

I just think 2017, while off to a great start with Jet2 for BHX in particularisn't going to be the plain sailing we had in 2016.

 

[nwoody2001]

Rolling 12 month total = 11,231,022 ..and only 9 months in....

....So I win #Justsaying

Great news, is that with currently grow patterns, BHX is looking to potential pass 11.5m by the end of the year!!!