Passenger number prediction thread 2017.

[flymetothemoon]

looking good for 58 Terminus!

 

[IanFarquharson]

Even with loss of UA we will still achieve at least 13.3m-13.4m in 2017
For 2018 Jet 2 are adding aircraft and there are new airlines coming on board (both of which do not fly to Manchester), two of which should be announced soon, so 2018 we will break the 14m

 

[123]

Just to put things in context the rolling 12 month total = 12,476,734 and is already higher than some predictions in the list.

58terminus 13,477,571

Paul S 13,200,000

Ray Finkle 13,200,000

nwoody2001 13,125,000

Aviador 13,124,000

hammerb32 13,110,011

MJH 13,076,787

Butty 13,007,498

Jon Dempsey 12,950,000

Matt995 12,820,500

andrew.clarkson 12,770,736

paul 12,675,899

flymetoothemoon 12,645,000

Seasider 12 582 534

Ian F 12,456,789

Barry Beeth 12,428,000

ronnoc1k8 12,384,907

 

[Barry Beeth]

Fag packet arithmetic and working this out as I type so cut me some slack; let's say 13.3m for 2017, thus needing 700,000 extra pax to reach 14m in 2018. Loss of UA notwithstanding (it's only a month or two of the calendar year) and a theoretical LF of 75% on these two new airlines means > 900000 seats p.a.

That's nearly 2500 seats per day?

Blimey...

 

[nwoody2001]

So, BHX is facing some interesting times and we don’t know yet the full extent of what next year holds.
Firstly some facts of how we have grown in the past:

2014 = 9.7m pax (+600,000 pax / +6.6%)
2015 = 10.2m pax (+500,000 pax / +5.2%)
2016 = 11.6m pax (+1,400,000 pax / +13.7%)
2017 = 13.4m pax* (+1,800,000 pax / +15.5%)


This shows a pretty strong trajectory of growth, but is pretty clear, with the strength of the £ and Brexit coming, I would be shocked if things continued at this pace, especially given our terminal capacity (which I’m lead to believe is 15m pax pa or 1.25m pax per month – a figure we passed this month)

So, what do we know regarding growth in 2018.

Firstly the bad news:

• United withdrawal = assuming an average 6x flights a week annually = loss of circa 110,000 seats
  
  
• Emirates reduction = from 1x 388 + 2x 773 to 2x 388 = loss of circa 100,000 seats
  
  
• Norwegian withdrawal = removal from UK regional shorthaul = loss of circa 115,000 seats
  
  
• Vueling withdrawal = removal from UK regional shorthaul = loss of circa 270,000 seats

So far, with withdrawals and reductions, I make that a loss of circa 595,000 seats from the 2017 schedule.

For the good news:

• Jet2.com = Jan-Mar 2018 = 150,000 seats, Summer 2018 +350,000 seats, this would equate to 500,000 additional seats and that does not yet include Winter 2018/19. I would imaging therefore that Jet2.com could well deliver circa 600,000-650,000 additional seats in 2018 which would single handily whip out all the losses from UA/DY/VY/EK combined!!!

The grey areas:

• Replacing European Locos? – As Norwegian and Vueling have opted to reithdraw nearly all European shorthaul from the regions, who will benefit from this? There is an argument to say that there was an oversupply on some routes but I would be shocked if some of the 380,000 seats being lost will not be picked up. Maybe Monarch or Jet2.com will benefit, or maybe Ryanair or someone new?
  
  
• Long-Haul? – I have no idea what will come of this but I’m adamant that there is a strong market for long-haul from BHX with those offering a good product and service offer. There are rumours that EWR could be replaced and maybe more, and then there’s always the china rumours, india rumours, and whoever else knows? Turkmenistan have already upper capacity next year with AI loads begging to full up. So what next?

With Jet2.com alone, we are already looking at 100,000 seat growth in 2018 above all the losses from the above. Assuming we are not in for anymore shocks (which can’t be guaranteed) and that we get 1 or 2 tasty announcements for next year, I’m hopeful we can at least achieve 14m in 2018 if not surpass it!!!

 

[Brum X]

Great post woody, thanks for sharing. That makes me feel much better today

 

[nwoody2001]

So, BHX is facing some interesting times and we don’t know yet the full extent of what next year holds.
Firstly some facts of how we have grown in the past:

2014 = 9.7m pax (+600,000 pax / +6.6%)
2015 = 10.2m pax (+500,000 pax / +5.2%)
2016 = 11.6m pax (+1,400,000 pax / +13.7%)
2017 = 13.4m pax* (+1,800,000 pax / +15.5%)


This shows a pretty strong trajectory of growth, but is pretty clear, with the strength of the £ and Brexit coming, I would be shocked if things continued at this pace, especially given our terminal capacity (which I’m lead to believe is 15m pax pa or 1.25m pax per month – a figure we passed this month)

So, what do we know regarding growth in 2018.

Firstly the bad news:

• United withdrawal = assuming an average 6x flights a week annually = loss of circa 110,000 seats
  
  
• Emirates reduction = from 1x 388 + 2x 773 to 2x 388 = loss of circa 100,000 seats
  
  
• Norwegian withdrawal = removal from UK regional shorthaul = loss of circa 115,000 seats
  
  
• Vueling withdrawal = removal from UK regional shorthaul = loss of circa 270,000 seats

So far, with withdrawals and reductions, I make that a loss of circa 595,000 seats from the 2017 schedule.

For the good news:

• Jet2.com = Jan-Mar 2018 = 150,000 seats, Summer 2018 +350,000 seats, this would equate to 500,000 additional seats and that does not yet include Winter 2018/19. I would imaging therefore that Jet2.com could well deliver circa 600,000-650,000 additional seats in 2018 which would single handily whip out all the losses from UA/DY/VY/EK combined!!!

The grey areas:

• Replacing European Locos? – As Norwegian and Vueling have opted to reithdraw nearly all European shorthaul from the regions, who will benefit from this? There is an argument to say that there was an oversupply on some routes but I would be shocked if some of the 380,000 seats being lost will not be picked up. Maybe Monarch or Jet2.com will benefit, or maybe Ryanair or someone new?
  
  
• Long-Haul? – I have no idea what will come of this but I’m adamant that there is a strong market for long-haul from BHX with those offering a good product and service offer. There are rumours that EWR could be replaced and maybe more, and then there’s always the china rumours, india rumours, and whoever else knows? Turkmenistan have already upper capacity next year with AI loads begging to full up. So what next?

With Jet2.com alone, we are already looking at 100,000 seat growth in 2018 above all the losses from the above. Assuming we are not in for anymore shocks (which can’t be guaranteed) and that we get 1 or 2 tasty announcements for next year, I’m hopeful we can at least achieve 14m in 2018 if not surpass it!!!

So to add to the 100,000 seat growth I've calculated above we can now add Primera ...in 2018, with their EWR/BOS routes, they will be adding circa 130,000 seats, or 225,000 seats in a full year!

Running total so far with current news, I suspect is circa 230,000 seats and counting...

 

[Ray Finkle]

We have a winner

Honourable mention to Mr Dempsey, there was less than 10k in it.


hammerb32 13,110,011

MJH 13,076,787

Butty 13,007,498

Jon Dempsey 12,950,000

Matt995 12,820,500

 

[Brum X]

Well done Butty

 

[Ianbutty]

Really. I thought I was 13.5. Cor blimey.

I would like to thank my.....

 

[flymetothemoon]

Well done Ian Butty

 

[Aviador]

Did I agree to a prize this year, I can't remember?

 

[rollo]

Did I agree to a prize this year, I can't remember?

Yeah a 2 week all inclusive holiday in the Maldives I believe.

 

[Ianbutty]

Well done Ian Butty

Did I agree to a prize this year, I can't remember?

Well done Butty

Thanks all. As for a prize.... No worries. Just pleased to be part of the team.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Yeah a 2 week all inclusive holiday in the Maldives I believe.

That prize was for the thread starter, Ianbutty gets a pint of John Smiths

 

[58terminus]

Yeah a 2 week all inclusive holiday in the Maldives I believe.

Unfortunately it was with Monarch Holidays.How ironic is that?

 

[Brum X]

Did I agree to a prize this year, I can't remember?

Yeah a pair of return tickets to Boston from BHX. With Primera Air

 

[Ray Finkle]

Yeah a pair of return tickets to Boston from BHX. With Primera Air

Talking of Boston it's completely disappeared from Amadeus so very doubtful it will happen.

All eyes on the other two now

 

[Brum X]

Talking of Boston it's completely disappeared from Amadeus so very doubtful it will happen.

All eyes on the other two now

Thats not good then Ray