Passenger number prediction thread 2016.

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray, based on the average of all the above, my prediction will be 10, 865,111.... Andyc

 

[User001]

I'll put my hat in the ring and go for 11,009,000.

An extra 1m pax should be achievable in 2016 barring any disasters, be it internal or external.

One thing I hope BHX manages to do is overtake Luton by a comfortable margin.

Until their terminal upgrades are done, they are literally running out of room to put aircraft in. Also the disruption this building work will cause may make some passengers look elsewhere for flights, which, could be Birmingham and Stansteds gift......

 

[Ray Finkle]

Both of the Gentlemen's estimates have been added and I fully appreciate their input :hatsoff:


nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

Ray Finkle - 11,050,000

user001 - 11,009,000.

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brummiegem - 10,925,500

andrew.clarkson - 10, 865,111

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

jfy1999 - 10,634,000

Seasider - 10 621 794

Aviador - 10,590,000

 

[Aviador]

It's getting close to Christmas so I'm feeling rather generous. You'll need to remind me of this in twelve months time but whoever gets closest will win their favourite tipple courteous of Forums4airports!

(OK well within reason, no 25 year old malt whiskeys etc and subject to the winning participant being over the age of 18 by this time next year! Prize maybe in voucher form. Closing date last day of this December.)

 

[Jon Dempsey]

:drinks: Just for that, Aviador, 10,750,000. :drinks:

 

[jfy1999]

I also hope we can overtake Luton. Their airline/destination list is surprisingly short for an airport that handles more passengers than BHX and EDI. Every time I go on FR24 I'm struck by how heavily Luton relies on easyJet and Wizz.

Despite the great offerings from those two, they have no Thomas Cook, and their Thomson and Monarch offerings are much smaller. And while there have been complaints that BHX's Ryanair offering is too small, Luton's is even smaller (due to Stansted of course), and the gap will further widen in 2016 with BHX's three new routes (not counting Vilnius).

In the long-haul department LTN only has New York and Tel Aviv. I think the reason we have yet to overtake Luton is down to Flybe being our biggest airline.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Luton are on course to pass 12 million so I think it's going to be a while yet. I don't see the building work making too much of a difference, the vast majority of their network is low cost and if the price is right people will go there. I think we'd need big expansion from Ryanair or a base from another airline to get anywhere near.

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

Ray Finkle - 11,050,000

user001 - 11,009,000.

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brummiegem - 10,925,500

andrew.clarkson - 10, 865,111

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

Brum X - 10,800,00

Jon Dempsey - 10,750,000

jfy1999 - 10,634,000

Seasider - 10 621 794

Aviador - 10,590,000

 

[Brum X]

Hi everyone, the reason why ive taken a long time to make my prediction is that im following all this Syria ISIS stuff at the moment and if the UK should join the coalition in fighting terrorism. My prediction has kept changing and im feeling rather nervous about all of this if im being honest so therefore i have downgraded my passenger target for 2016.
The reason for this is i believe the tour operators will be all over the place and the summer 2016 charter programme will probably be ripped up in the next few weeks and started again. I see passenger numbers will still be zilch to Tunisia, zilch to all destinations in Egypt (Both Sharm and Hurgahada) and tourists will not want to go to Turkey or indeed Cyprus which after all will be a RAF base for our aircraft)
Yes Thomson, TCX and Monarch can deploy these aircraft to the Costa's, Balearics, Canaries, Greece and Portugal but will these places have the availablity for more capacity ?????

So for that reason my original prediction of 11,050,000 has been reduced to 10,800,00 passengers in 2016.

 

[Aviador]

I agree with you Brum X.

The Gulf War had a negative effect on air passenger numbers and many people stopped flying altogether during that conflict. I do believe things have changed now though.

These people, some of them who are home-grown, are prepared to rage terror on our own streets in the name of these fanatics who carry out appalling atrocities against their own people in the Middle East.

It's extremely difficult to predict what may or may not happen over the course of the next twelve months but any action rightly or wrongly is likely to have an effect on air travel. Of course many people will have become acustom to hearing news about terrorist events at both home and abroad so perhaps more people will be willing to carry on as normal.

As Brum X has mentioned though, the tour industry is pretty good at adapting to industry changes so although the choice of flights might change, hopefully the number of passengers flying wont decline.

 

[jfy1999]

I would like to amend my prediction to 11,034,000 passengers based on the fact that QR and EK's 3rd daily flight together could contribute over 500,000 passengers and our new LCC's another 500,000.

 

[Aviador]

I agree, those numbers are notching up with the latest additions. Make mine 10,895,000 now.

This thread reminds me of this...for those who are old enough to remember!

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVEIxOSfBAw[/video]

 

[Ray Finkle]

I remember that well.


The updated list

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

Ray Finkle - 11,050,000

jfy1999 - 11,034,000

user001 - 11,009,000.

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

andrew.clarkson - 10,939,742.40

Brummiegem - 10,925,500

Brum X - 10,900,00

Aviador - 10,895,000

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

Jon Dempsey - 10,750,000

Seasider - 10 621 794

 

[Brum X]

After yesterdays news from Wizz and further expansion from KLM with a 6th weekday flight, i would like to increase my prediction for 2016 to 10,900,000


Cheers :good:

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray, my updated prediction is now 10,939,742.40.. Andyc

 

[Brum X]

Thanks Ray :smile:

 

[Ray Finkle]

Both updated :smile: :smile:

 

[Seasider]

Members are increasing their predictions because of the new services announced but the seats have to be filled. Also, it is not too long since BHX took "2 steps forward, 1 back", so I am sticking with my original prediction.

 

[Brum X]

Members are increasing their predictions because of the new services announced but the seats have to be filled. Also, it is not too long since BHX took "2 steps forward, 1 back", so I am sticking with my original prediction.

You are quite right, however after just 2/3 months of operation Wizz Air have an average load factor of 84% so i dont see why Wroklaw would be any different and im sure KLM will sell seats on there 6th daily Ansterdam so im happy to increase my prediction. Also Emirates celebrate 15 years at BHX on friday, is the A380 going to be announced ????


I bloody hope so, will be a great christmas present for all us BHX lovers.

 

[Brummiegem]

I am going to really stick my neck out here and change my prediction to 11,195,000.
I still have a concern about the MidEast situation but with all the increases in capacity from KLM,EK,FlyBe and others,plus the new routes I think 11M is well within reach.

 

[Ray Finkle]

nwoody2001 - 11,250,000

Brummiegem - 11,195,000

Ray Finkle - 11,150,000

Justplanecrazy - 11,116,245

jfy1999 - 11,034,000

user001 - 11,009,000.

Ian Farquharson - 11,000,001

Brum X - 11,000,000

andrew.clarkson - 10,939,742.40

Aviador - 10,895,000

The Local Yokel - 10,800,000

Jon Dempsey - 10,750,000

Seasider - 10 621 794