Manchester airport route network

[User001]

With the addition of San Fransisco, I thought I would re create my maps in one easy thread. The USA, Mexico and Canada are the first map up, and I have to say, it looks bloody impressive:

The only gaps that I scan see that could be even remotely conceivable from Manchestr are Dallas (AA hub for South America), Seattle, Denver (both leisure routes that could have TCX on them) and Charlotte if AA were to give it another go. Reno could be another one of TCX re visit it after MAN gets USPBC.

More maps will follow in due course.

 

[Dobbo]

That is excellent. However, that does represent the "high season" and a decent number of those lines vanish over the winter months. Still work to be done to establish those routes.

 

[Land23R]

It's certainly impressive and good to see SFO being added.

I might throw Detroit and Tampa into the pot. Detroit has been rumoured more than once in the past and if it did happen would presumably be by Delta. Tampa could be useful for Central Florida's Gulf Coast.

 

[Dobbo]

Dallas has been rumoured via AA in the past.

More of a Canadian presence would also be nice!

 

[jfy1999]

More of a Canadian presence would also be nice!

I was thinking of Montreal, after I noticed Air Transat will be swapping Calgary to Montreal at Glasgow this summer.

 

[Dobbo]

More of a Canadian presence would also be nice!

I was thinking of Montreal, after I noticed Air Transat will be swapping Calgary to Montreal at Glasgow this summer.

I think I had more of an increase across the board and/or Air Canada presence. This may not be realistic in the short term.

 

[User001]

New long haul routes (or new airlines on a route) starting in the next 18 months so far:

PEK/PVG are just off the map

 

[User001]

The Caribbean island route network:

 

[User001]

Long haul going east:

 

[User001]

Spain, Portugal and France

 

[User001]

Germany, Poland, Austria, Switzerland and BEneLUX

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Thanks for the maps, User001. Just afew brief observations. Beziers is additionally served 2 / 3 times weekly by Ryanair (not shown on French map). On the long-haul map, whilst Air China has expressed interest in serving Shanghai the route is not active; nothing announced so far. Former routes to Erbil and Sulaimaniyah are suspended. Iraqi Airways must win back safety accreditations before their schedules can resume. Currently, no other operator is flying those routes though they may attract interest.

 

[User001]

I've stopped the maps for a moment as the European maps are far more complex than I bargained for.

I'm missing Chambery and Beziers off the French map, and nearly missed a couple off my next maps.

In terms of air China, it's to be announced very soon, as it WILL be happening this year.

In terms of Iraqi, the EU ban is in the process of being lifted, with flights to Germany and Sweden on their own metal in the past few weeks, so, fully expect them to be back soon.

 

[Dobbo]

What is going on behind the scenes with Air China? It is simply that the Hainan/Beijing route has some form of state priority??? It is certainly very quiet.

With Beijing, Shanghai, San Fran - where is next To be launched as long haul from MAN?

 

[User001]

Due to the sheer amount of money MAG and Hainan have put into the MAN route, they don't want air China just usurping the announcement. It's coming, it's just being held off at the moment.

In terms of new long haul, I honestly expect Cape Town with Thomas Cook to feature eventually, and possibly the next long haul route to be announced.

I also think Riyadh could come online with Saudia, especially given a route map a few weeks ago showed MAN with direct routes to JED and RUH.

I fully expect Thomson to announce Liberia (Costa Rica and Colombo from MAN in the next 12 months for a 2017 start.

Lastly, Air Blue is to launch MAN very soon too, as per their website.

Other than those guesses, it really could be anything!

 

[Dobbo]

I think they are all sensible suggestions - only Cape Town has not yet appeared in the radar of the press recently. If the LAX, SFO, MIA, JFK, MIA routes continue to grow, they will need another 2/3 aircraft to make the scedule work.

Tompson seem to have been rather quiet. Do we know how Phuket and Goa are doing? Each of those must be due an increase of they sell well. I'd have thought they could be in play for Cape Town and possibly Bangkok?

Expansion from Legacy/flag carriers, I could see the following in 2016:

CX - increase in frequency to 7/8 weekly start in 2017.
SQ - de-coupling from MUC to start in 2017. Daily operation on an A359/B77W.
AI - Delhi/Mumbai
JAL - Id love to see Tokyo happen.

I'd still like to see Kuala Lumpur start, but unless it's Air Asia or TCX I have no idea who might run the route.

Have there been any further rumblings from Virgin/Delta? The data indicates Atlanta and (presumably JFK) are doing very well (the usual tourist routes are going strong). That would surely indicate that Something will be considered over the next 12/18 months.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Thomson's long-haul strategy for MAN appears very predictable. They base two B788's year-round at MAN for the long-haul programme, each of which operates one return flight per 24 hours. 14 TOM long-haul departures per week has been MAN's staple for quite a while now. Frequencies to the various destinations change from Summer to Winter seasons, and are tweaked from one Summer to the next, but 14 always seems to be the magic number. In the absence of a third based long-haul aircraft for MAN, or a decision to split another one between MAN and a second base, we're probably capped at 14 departures per week. However, given the strength and popularity of the Thomson brand, this relatively tight programme must be an easy and highly-profitable sell (see Sanford / Florida at just 3x weekly). Arguably, Thomson could be criticised for allowing Thomas Cook to run away with the NW long-haul market, but conversely we would then have to acknowledge that the opposite applies in the SE with respect to these two.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

User001 - Many thanks for your reply.

Just a follow-up picking up on a couple of points raised. MAN's original Saudia scheduled service afew years back linked MAN with both JED and RUH on a double-drop basis, ie. MAN-GVA-RUH-JED or MAN-GVA-JED-RUH. IIRC, that original service (via Geneva) alternated which Saudi Arabian city was the first destination visited on the regular flights. Do you anticipate that the next development will be a double-drop again (MAN-JED-RUH or MAN-RUH-JED using the same aircraft) or are you expecting standalone services between MAN and the two Saudi cities?

On Air China, do you believe we can expect any announcement before the Hainan launch on June 10th? If the priority is not to undermine CHH's publicity, logically Air China would need to be kept quiet until after that date which would imply an Autumn launch at the earliest. Any insights would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks again for your earlier reply.

 

[User001]

I expect Riyadh would be a stand alone flight.

JED seems to be doing just fine without the need for an additional passengers that RUH would generate, but, the thing with RUH is that the B787/B777 in my opinion is 'just too big' but then the A320 can't make the flight non stop.

In terms of Air China, I believe it will be announced before the start of the Hainan route, but, will not actually start before the HU route does.

It's also worth remembering that Barcelona was applied for at the same time as MAN, and they too are yet to hear about a confirmed start date.

 

[Dobbo]

Have seen a couple of route/airline combinations that have been mooted for MAN that now seem to be pursued at LGW. Namely:

Air Asia X - KUL
Thomas Cook - CPT

Have there been any rumblings of these back at MAN? Presumably they would have considered it?