The Continuing Saga of Brexit...

[Brum X]

I'm ashamed to admit that I'm still in the 'undecided' camp.

I've tried to keep an open mind throughout and have listened carefully to arguments for both sides. I can make a case for and a case against, both seem to have positives and negatives. I think The Local Yokel is right in that nobody can predict what will happen either way and I'm sure in years to come we will be looking back thinking 'what if', no matter what the result.

Over the years whenever I have felt indifferent to an election I just haven't bothered to vote, whatever the outcome it would only be for a finite period of time anyway. This election is something that will not only affect me but also my children and most likely their children too and for that reason I have to vote.

I've got a couple more days yet so we'll see, to be honest I'll be glad when it's all over

I was thinking when will Mr Finkle join this debate ??

 

[Brum X]

I'm ashamed to admit that I'm still in the 'undecided' camp.

I've tried to keep an open mind throughout and have listened carefully to arguments for both sides. I can make a case for and a case against, both seem to have positives and negatives. I think The Local Yokel is right in that nobody can predict what will happen either way and I'm sure in years to come we will be looking back thinking 'what if', no matter what the result.

Over the years whenever I have felt indifferent to an election I just haven't bothered to vote, whatever the outcome it would only be for a finite period of time anyway. This election is something that will not only affect me but also my children and most likely their children too and for that reason I have to vote.

I've got a couple more days yet so we'll see, to be honest I'll be glad when it's all over

I was thinking when will Mr Finkle join this debate ??

 

[Ray Finkle]

I'm not big on discussing politics, everybody has an opinion and there really is no right or wrong.

I'm still considering this one though as I've seen some very weak arguments from both sides but equally have seen some very strong ones.

As Mr Yokel has said, people can predict what will happen all they like but something like this has never happened before, so we really don't know.

I shall have a decision by Wednesday evening

 

[Ray Finkle]

There is one good thing though. I've just received and email from Ryanair offering me a 'Referendum Special' with fares from £19.99

They are clearly supporting the 'remain' campaign.

 

[Aviador]

I'm not big on discussing politics, everybody has an opinion and there really is no right or wrong.

I'm still considering this one though as I've seen some very weak arguments from both sides but equally have seen some very strong ones.

As Mr Yokel has said, people can predict what will happen all they like but something like this has never happened before, so we really don't know.

I shall have a decision by Wednesday evening

Whatever you decide, just please make sure you get the facts from independent sources. Don't believe the flyers put through your door!

A friend of a friend on Facebook said and I quote :

"I said I’d stay out of it. I said I’d keep my opinions to myself, but I was tipped over the edge by arriving home today to find a pamphlet in my other half’s name, and on the same doormat, a lies-ridden rag in my own name.

I started scribbling a response on it, which the intention of mailing it back to them, but after a few minutes listening to the sound of my own indignant breath snorting through my nostrils, I realised the only way I could expunge this fury was by battering my keyboard into submission.

Respectfully, Vote Leave, I would like to unsubscribe from future communications, and here’s why:

It is a pack of lies. Seriously, this is GCSE-level stuff. We as a country are about to take the biggest decision of several generations, one that could not feasibly be undone in my lifetime, and we’re being asked to do so on the basis of lies, half-truths, distortions and, in case that wasn’t enough to hoodwink you, a bit of old-fashioned racism to boot.

Lie #1: Over a quarter of a million people migrate to the UK every year
And over 300,000 people leave the UK every year
( http://www.telegraph.co.uk/…/Emigration-nation-who-are-the-… )
(but because they’re British, they’re called “Expatriots”). You can argue the toss about whether free movement of people within the EU is a good or a bad thing, but you cannot argue that it doesn’t work both ways. You can also argue the toss about whether immigration is a net good, but when a leading Leave campaigner comes out to say that immigration was only a positive until 2002 (when those nasty east Europeans were allowed in), I start to smell racism, and hear a dog-whistle.
http://www.theguardian.com/…/immigration-could-overwhelm-br…

Lie #2: The EU is expanding to include Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey.
Not strictly true this one. All of the above have expressed their interest in becoming members - in Turkey’s case, as far back as the 1980s - but none are close to having full membership just yet. Yes, Turkey does have a very large population, that’s right, and yes, new members would have the same rights… including a veto on new members. Does the UK have a veto on new members?

Yes, it does. Unless it leaves, when it doesn’t. See also Lie #6.

Lie #3: The EU has changed enormously since 1973
Thank you Sherlock; so have most places. I almost gave you a pass on this one, until I noticed the rather disingenuous claim about needing to prop up the Euro… erm, we’re exempt from Eurozone bailouts. Next.

Lie #4: EU law over-rides UK law
You almost had me on this one, but you need to look at the small print… immigration, counter-terrorism, prisoner voting… thaey are not ECJ decisions, but ECHR decisions. And that is a totally different story. Excuse me while I go off on a tangent…

What they actually want to exempt us from is the European Convention of Human Rights, membership of which is a precondition of EU membership. They would instead replace the Convention with a British version - telling called “rights and responsibilities” - which would defeat the entire principle of universal human rights that we the UK helped to forge. Namely, that regardless what the government of a particular country thinks at any given time you are entitled to be treated with dignity.

Why did we create this principle? Because about 65 years ago, one of our neighbour states changed its laws to allow itself to gas 6 million people within its territory. In doing so, they did nothing illegal but breached every standard of human decency. So after that, we decided it would be a good idea to write down that “standard of human decency” just in case anyone was in any doubt.

So if you belive Lie #4 on the basis of the examples they offer there, then you are falling for one of the bigger porkies of human history.

Lie #5: The EU costs us £350m a week
This isn’t so much a lie as a cluster-lie. It’s several lies packed into one big one. Let me break it down a little:

Lie #5.1 £350m a week.
Which doesn’t count a) the rebate, b) the funds we receive in EU grants for projects we’d otherwise have to fund out of government spending.

Lie #5.2 Enough to build a new hospital…
Spare me. Frankly, if you fall for this one you deserve all you get. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and Nigel Farage the defenders of the NHS and British public services? Despite their track records in government and / or stated public positions to the contrary?

Lie #5.3 We have no control over how it’s spent
Rubbish, because…

Lie #5.4 That’s decided by politicians and officials in Brussels…
Who we elect! Commisioners are appointed by member states governments, and the European Commission’s proposed laws are subject to ratification by the European Parliament, which is so democratic it actually gives anti-EU parties such as UKIP disproportionately more seats than their share of vote entitles them to. For example, in 2014 UKIP got 25% of the vote in the UK, and received 35% of the UK’s seats. In the British elections to the Holy Seat of Democracy the following year, they received 1m more votes and took home a paltry one seat.

Lie #5.5 … not by the people we elect
This is not technically a lie. They should be decided by the people we elect, but the ***Please Read Forum Terms of Service***ers never turn up.
( http://www.independent.co.uk/…/ukip-meps-attend-the-fewest-… )

Lie #5.6 [On the reverse they equate this figure to £19bn a year]
£19bn a year is about 2.4% of the UK government’s annual £770bn spending. So turn that into household budgeting… imagine you earn a typical salary of £35k, meaning you take home about £2,100 a month. The equivalent would be a subscription that cost you £51.66 a month. So, on a par with your gym membership or Sky Sports subscription.

Lie #5.7 We get less than half of that back
49.2 % actually. That’s worse than Spain, which just about breaks even, and certainly much worse than Poland which contributes -22%. But compared to Germany, which only gets back 39%, we’re doing pretty well. More here:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union

Lie #6 You don’t have to be a member of the EU to trade with it
First bit’s true. Switzerland’s a really bad example though. Why choose Switzerland when it undermines your argument so badly? Switzerland and Norway are part of the wider European Free Trade area, which allows them free access to the common market in return for accepting a few conditions like freedom of movement for EU citizens… which kind of undermines your racist fearmongering from Lie #1.

And as for all UK firms having to obey EU rules, are these the rules you want to emancipate us from?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSgaiTdWoAAhYvD.jpg

Lie #7 While we’re in the EU we can’t negotiate our own trade deals
Two points in response to this: 1) the USA has already said that negotiating a trade deal with the UK wouldn’t be a priority, and 2) most small businesses don’t do import / export. There you’re just re-hashing lie #6.

Lie #8 There are risks in voting either way
Experts, politicians and business are divided. I’ll give you politicians, and maybe give you busin… nah, who am kidding? This is Captain Redbeard Rum’s “opinion is divided on the subject" which he clarified as "all the other Captains say it is, I say it isn’t.”

Lie #9 [Special Bonus Racist Dog Whistle]
What the hell are Syria and Iraq doing on this diagram? Are they applying for EU membership too?

So no, all in all, my mind’s made up, and I think you can save yourself some postage by taking me off the list."

 

[Brum X]

Well said mate. Good points.

How is your keyboard now, is it a right off ??

 

[Aviador]

Well said mate. Good points.

How is your keyboard now, is it a right off ??

Haha, no I should have made it clearer it was what a friend of a friend said on Facebook.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

We now know how the nation voted. I think the result was a tremendous shock/surprise (depending on your view) to most people. It certainly seemed to be to the government. To say the PM was in shock is an understatement. What started as a promise to fulfil an election pledge to hold a referendum (undoubtedly one he thought he'd win easily and at the same time dismiss the Conservative Euro sceptics as a spent force) has rebounded on him horribly.

The campaigns of both sides were disgraceful at times with Leave clearly exaggerating many aspects, even to the point of telling demonstrable untruths on occasions. Remain went in for its fair share of overstatement too with, for example, the PM hinting that war would be more likely if we left the EU.

We are where we are and calls for a re-run of the referendum are not likely to succeed. We knew there would be a period - possibly several years - of uncertainty following a Leave decision and we are beginning to see that already. The 'divorce' proceedings will not be amicable - Juncker, President of the EC said so this morning. There is a worry that some important states in the EU will be vindictive in the negotiations, not least to deter any other member state that might be thinking of leaving.

It's said that many young people voted to Remain. That may be an over simplification. Looking at geographical and socio-economic areas it seems broadly that the bulk of Leave support came from rural areas, and urban areas populated in the main by traditional 'working class' Labour voters. Perhaps they thought they'd been left out of any prosperity brought about by EU membership whereas the larger and more prosperous cities tended to vote for Remain. My own city of Bristol voted 62% Remain and 38% Leave on a 72% turnout.

Speaking to some people yesterday, it's perhaps surprising that such relatively small things swayed people's minds, especially for the Leave vote. One acquaintance told me he'd been undecided until 'Obama poked his nose in telling us not to leave' after which he decided to vote Leave. Another said he was outraged by people saying that Leave voters were racist and, although he probably was going to vote Leave, these remarks made sure he did.

In the end the PM made a catastrophic error of judgement in allowing the referendum to proceed. Before going on I have to declare an interest - I've never had any time for him as a politician or PM and I have no political party allegiance. Had the PM any inkling that there would be a Leave majority, like any politician he would have found a way of ducking an election pledge.

What now for the immediate future? Will it be Boris Johnson or Michael Gove or even Theresa May (an interesting possible runner given she is a long time member of the Cameron government and a Remainer, although for a while it was thought she'd throw in with the Leave camp) in Number 10? Or an outsider as John Major was? Or will there be a General Election? The 'five year rule' can be circumnavigated in certain circumstances.

So now we have months, probably years of uncertainty before Britain's place in the world begins to become clearer. The UK itself might well not survive in its current form with Scotland, understandably, making loud noises for another independence referendum.

The historians in 50 years time will have a rich vein to mine for their books on the second decade of the 21st century.

 

[Ray Finkle]

The campaigns of both sides were disgraceful at times

It's been awful and hopefully something that we will never see again. It seemed as if those declaring they were in the leave camp were immediately branded as racist and those saying they were to vote remain labelled as unpatriotic. There looks to have been quite a large percentage of people that were genuinely confused, with the lies and scaremongering possibly preventing them making an informed decision.

I wonder how many voted leave as a sort of protest vote. There was a chap interviewed yesterday by the BBC who said "I'm surprised and now very worried.......I voted leave but never thought it would actually happen", or words to that effect. Another suggested that "When I woke up the reality actually hit me.......if I could vote again it would be to remain".


Considering their victory the leave campaign are very quiet today, I've heard nothing at all from Boris, Gove...etc?

 

[Aviador]

I agree with everything said. There seems to be no feeling of elation, satisfaction or fulfillment after the referendum. Looking back at previous general elections the country has usually rallied around the government that gained power and a feel good factor has usually taken hold. Not for this. On Facebook I've seen various people trying to justify why they voted leave. I found it sad that they even felt they needed to do that for whatever reason.

I do feel the referendum was carried out in such a way that was undemocratic. Everybody would agree that both sides of the argument were taken out of context on a phenomenal scale. Although far from ideal, I would support the idea of a second referendum but only if it was done with both sides agreeing on the facts. A second referendum could be done after a cooling off period so people understand the severity of their decision.

 

[Brum X]

I am still trying to digest and take in what has actually just happened tbh, it feels strange in every way that i cannot even try to explain.
Are we really saying that the British people have voted to change the direction in which this country will go down to the fact that when people were putting a X in the box that said UK to leave the EU, they did so on the presumption that LEAVE isnt actually going to win but i want to protest, that's how im seeing this and im not happy.
Also when speaking to people again from the older generation yesterday about my fears and concern's for the decision to leave the EU, the remarks i was getting from them was "We were fine before we joined in 1975 and we will be fine again". I had to remind them that the world in 2016 is very different to the world in 1975, pffffffffffffffft

 

[Aviador]

I share your sentiments.

 

[Aviador]

I would work on the assumption there will be no second referendum and on the basis of that I would hope the UK can work towards an amicable withdrawal from the EU. I really hope the government isn't arsey with Europe. We have to do what we have to do but I would hope we can build a new strong relationship with the EU on the basis that we can control our borders. I recognise this isn't currently possible under the freedom of movement rules but if the EU were to reform this it may be possible in the future.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I would hope we can build a new strong relationship with the EU on the basis that we can control our borders

Nobody knows what is to come but many seem to think that at some point in the future we'll need to become a member of EFTA which, maybe ironically, allows the free movement of labour.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Just been listening to a fascinating interview on BBC News 24 with an expert in European law. Various scenarios were put to him that might enable a rethink on the referendum decision. Although the referendum result is only advisory the expert thought that in general that none of the scenarios presented to him, such as a second referendum, would stop the UK government activating Article 50, the withdrawal from EU mechanism, except possibly one.

If there was a general election and a government was elected on the basis that it was campaigning to remain in the EU then it might be possible for it to say, effectively, that it didn't authorise the referendum and didn't feel bound by it. BUT this would only work if the current UK government hadn't already activated Article 50 unless all other EU members agreed to waive or alter Article 50 regulations.

In practice, I suspect this would only have any chance of working if the new government was a Labour one or a Lib-Lab coalition or any other non-Conservative coalition as any Conservative government would find it difficult to disassociate itself from its immediate predecessor that had authorised the referendum.

 

[Brum X]

Nobody knows what is to come but many seem to think that at some point in the future we'll need to become a member of EFTA which, maybe ironically, allows the free movement of labour.

I can hear Boris now in 2018 (fUTURE PRIME MINISTER) on the Andrew Marr show questioned why he has signed upto this when he promised back in 2016 (EU Referendum) that Britain wanted to BREXIT to stop free movement of people. His answer= Sorry we got that one wrong

 

[Brum X]

This is why i dont trust any of this lot and it makes my blood boil.

I say lets get that petition signed on facebook and have a second referendum, its apparently crashed which says something. Oh have some people who voted LEAVE made a big mistake ????

 

[David_itl]

"Dan Hannan tells us why Brexit might not mean big cuts to immigrant numbers" is on BBC Newsnight YouTube channel.

Pretty sure a lot of people were very confused about all the issues so the all important soundbites came to the fore.
Some people say the NHS is underfunded. Very simple to make a soundbite implying leaving would allow an extra £350m a week on the NHS. I would have loved to be a fly on those voters walls when Farage said that it was a "mistake".
There will be some people who would be better represented as being slightly xenophobic rather than racist. How simple it would be to utter publically we will stem the flow of immigrants knowing full well that that the control of the non-EU immigrants can/will be controlled whether we remained or not when they would like the status quo of freedom of movement of labour within the EU. Pretty sure those who voted on this issue would be mightily disappointed if there are more Eastern Europeans coming to the UK to do the jobs that some British subjects are too workshy to do themselves.

 

[Carl W]

Look on the bright side girls,,,, if the east Europeans don't fly into your airport anymore,,,, then maybe countries with cash to invest may see the uk as a good investment. That could be the Chinese , I thought that was just what you always wanted,,,, and maybe the British aren't as racist as you think,,,, they just want to run their own country, I don't see anything wrong in that ,,,, up the revolution ,,, lol

 

[Aviador]

Carl, each to their own, everybody is entitled to their opinion and I respect yours. It is widely reported that trade deals take many years to achieve, decades in fact. There is no prospect of any trade deals happening for a long time. Furthermore what we have chosen to do is to break a trade deal with 27 nations!