2018 Predictions & Aspirations

[Dobbo]

With the new year approaching, I thought I'd get the ball rolling on what may happen in 2016. I do not include things we know to be happening, only that which may happen...

PAX - my bold prediction is that MAN will surpass 25 million in 2016. If the new services are successful, this could be quite comfortable but you never know.

Spades will hit the ground in the TP, and we will learn the fate of the possible HS2 station and NPR, both of which are important to future growth.

As for the airlines - here are my thoughts:

Hainan start operations to Beijing and announce plans to move to a daily service in either W16 or S17.

Air China announce the start of the route to Shanghai 4x weekly in late 2016.

China Southern announce a new route to Guangzhou to start in 2017.

Cathay Pacific announce the start of 8x weekly to Hong Kong - to start in 2017.

Singapore Air - announce a change. No idea what it might be.

JAL - continue to sniff around, but don't commit to any firm plans. Likely 2017 announcement.

Air Asia X - as above. Will look into APD issue upon devolution.

Tompson/Thomas Cook - further modest expansion of services. Some of the new routes (LAX/Phuket) will be watched with interest I fancy...

Virgin/Delta - I doubt much change will happen other than some minor capacity and equipment upgrades on existing routes.

American - equipment upgrades.

United - as above. Equipment upgrades.

Emirates - I think we may see an announcement of a 4th daily, but to start in 2017. My outside shout here is the return of a Qantas branded aircraft as part of the codeshare agreement. Not sure if it would work but it may be a good occasional stunt for them to pull.

Etihad - I doubt much changes. May see a one off A380 visit.

Qatar - minor equipment changes. Think they are up to 16 weekly flights now?

Saudi - no significant changes.

PIA - no significant changes.

Air India - I think we will see an announcement of new routes to 2/3 Indian cities. Doubt they start in 2016 but this strikes me as a major underserved market.



Loads more that Id like to see happen. Think we will need to wait until the various phases of the TP are completed. After that we could see a growth in new premier operations.

Feel free to add your thoughts!

 

[User001]

Similar to that on the BHX thread, here are the noteworthy dates of new flights, or, any increases of significant note (mainly long haul).

I will not include low cost or charter short haul increases, as there are too many to note.

Jan:

Already started: Thomson Keflavik
Already started: Emirates switch EK19/20 to 2 class A380

Feb:

8th: flybe Rotterdam
14th: Condor Lanzarote

March:

1st: Shaheen Air Islamabad
18th: Ryanair Malta
25th: Air China Shanghai
27th: Easyjet Tivat
27th: Saudia Jeddah switch to B787-9
28th: Brussels Airlines Brussels 4th daily starts

April:

1st: Ryanair Bratislava
1st: Ryanair Brindisi
1st: Ryanair Carcassone
3rd: Ryanair Limoges
7th: Easyjet Milan MXP
8th: Condor Bourgas
10th: Monarch Tel Aviv
10th: Air Blue Islamabad
16th: TAP Portugal Lisbon increase to 14th weekly
28th: Jet2 Kraków
29th: Jet2 Naples

May:

1st: Monarch Lisbon
1st: Monarch Funchal
2nd: Thomson Aruba
2nd: Qatar Airways Doha increases to 16 weekly
2nd: Thomas Cook Los Angeles
8th: Thomas Cook Cape Verde
17th: Pegasus Istanbul Sabhia Ghoken
20th: Jet2 Girona
22nd: Evelop Palma
22nd: Thomas Cook Alicante
30th: Pegasus Bodrum
30th: Thomas Cook Boston
30th: JetsGo Palma

June:

10th: Hainan Beijing
13th: Easyjet Paris CDG
17th: Vueling Alicante
18th: Easyjet Olbia
24th: Vueling Rome FCO

July:

3rd: Easyjet Gibraltar
18th: Virgin Atlantic Las Vegas 3rd weekly/switch to A340-600

August:

3rd: Thomas Cook Orlando International 9th Weekly
18th: Thomas Cook Las Vegas 6th Weekly

September:

7th: Saudia Jeddah 5th weekly added

October:

9th: Thomas Cook Goa 3rd weekly added

November:

2nd: Thomas Cook Tobago
3rd: Thomson Goa
10th: Thomson Mauritius
17th: Thomson Phuket

December:

1st: Thomson Dubai DWC

Not a bad list, and like I say, this doesn't even touch the increases by the low costs and charter carriers!

 

[Aviador]

Thanks User001. Out of interest, is the Shaheen Air confirmed as starting on the 1st of March?

 

[User001]

Hi Aviador,

I am reliably informed that the Shaheen is confirmed, and so far, bookable in the specialist travel agents found in areas like Rusholme, Bradford and the likes.

It should make it to the website soon, once the A330 certification is complete.

 

[Aviador]

Thanks User001

The specialist travel agency seems to be the preferred choice of sales for Shaheen Air. I recall them doing the same when they operated flights into Leeds.

 

[User001]

Indeed.

They seem to be a bit more 'free and easy' in those agencies, so, if the flights are delayed through the certification processes, it's a non-issue for them.

I do have my doubts that all 3 carriers will survive on ISB, so, just like a few routes around the UK this summer, it's a matter of seeing which bows first.

 

[Aviador]

Probably until the oil price starts to rise again. To be honest though, PIA, although not great are probably the most professional of the bunch.

 

[User001]

Some quick spot facts on certain routes:

Paris CDG is now 62 weekly this summer!
Barcelona is 35 weekly.
Amsterdam is 111 weekly (bloody hell!)
Palma looks to be about 102 weekly (will have to re confirm, lots of charter to account for).
New York JFK increases to 22 weekly, and now all widebody service.
Lisbon is now 22 weekly
Madrid doubles capacity to 14 weekly
Milan nearly doubles capacity at 15 weekly
Copenhagen is now 32 weekly
Rome now sees 18 weekly
Brussels (BRU and CRL) now sees 38 weekly flights
Islamabad increases from 5 to 13 weekly
Vienna goes from 3 weekly last summer to 9 weekly this summer, a 200% increase!

This above gives a snapshot as to why MAN is on track to see 25m pax, and that is without any other increases not included in the tallies!

Manchester may not have grabbed the headlines with a plethora of new airlines, but, the amount of increases know so far means we have the potential to grow at a rate of 2:1 ahead of other airports.

 

[Dobbo]

Hi User

I hadn't realised that Air China was confirmed to Shanghai? Is that 4x weekly?

Is there anything in particular you think you will add to this list?

Incredible amount of traffic to AMS and CDG - is this hub traffic or with Amsterdam/Paris as the destination?! Be interesting to know the figures if so.

 

[User001]

At least 3 new routes to be announced in the next 3 weeks, but highly likely to be many more.

Some are known, some are not, I'll let the airlines do the announcing for once....

 

[andyc941]

You tease user001
At a guess
Air China will be confirmed
Shaheen air will be confirmed
New routes
China Southern to be announced
Air India to be announced

We will have to wait for next few weeks,they might not be all long haul routes.

 

[User001]

Wrong on the bottom 2 guesses.

 

[andyc941]

O well will have to wait and see,but i think its now british carriers with the new routes.

 

[User001]

There is one British carrier with a new route.

There is another carrier with 2 new routes that have been served by the same carrier before, but, is subject to a few conditions.

 

[Dobbo]

I assume one of them is Flybe to Cardiff?

 

[Dobbo]

Some quick spot facts on certain routes:

Paris CDG is now 62 weekly this summer!
Barcelona is 35 weekly.
Amsterdam is 111 weekly (bloody hell!)
Palma looks to be about 102 weekly (will have to re confirm, lots of charter to account for).
New York JFK increases to 22 weekly, and now all widebody service.
Lisbon is now 22 weekly
Madrid doubles capacity to 14 weekly
Milan nearly doubles capacity at 15 weekly
Copenhagen is now 32 weekly
Rome now sees 18 weekly
Brussels (BRU and CRL) now sees 38 weekly flights
Islamabad increases from 5 to 13 weekly
Vienna goes from 3 weekly last summer to 9 weekly this summer, a 200% increase!

This above gives a snapshot as to why MAN is on track to see 25m pax, and that is without any other increases not included in the tallies!

Manchester may not have grabbed the headlines with a plethora of new airlines, but, the amount of increases know so far means we have the potential to grow at a rate of 2:1 ahead of other airports.

Question to the floor.

I'd love to know (is there any way for the public to discover?) the final destinations of transfer PAX originating from MAN via some of the routes listed. Taking some of the most obvious, I was thinking:

London Heathrow
Paris CDG
Amsterdam
Dublin
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Doha

If there is a way I will take the time and report back when I can - main interest is to look for large flows (aside from the obvious kangaroo route) that might give rise to new direct routes. I doubt I'll find anything new, but it would be good to put more solid numbers that can be referred back to.

Cheers.

 

[yorkshire]

Amsterdam is 111 weekly (bloody hell!)

That's seems a lot, a bit different to ours!

 

[User001]

I have no idea why AMS is 111 weekly. What's worse is, that's the 1 way figure!

With Easyjet, Flybe and KLM all battling it out with high frequencies, it will be interesting to see if the frequency can be maintained.

When you look at the bigger picture, the capacity is even more staggering:

MAN-AMS is 111 weekly
MAN-EIN is 4 weekly
MAN-BRU is 26 weekly
MAN-RTM is 12 weekly
MAN-CRL is 12 weekly
MAN-DUS is 56 weekly
MAN-CGN is 5 weekly
LPL-AMS is 39 weekly

That's 265 weekly one way flights from the NW region to the BEneLUX area (DUS and CGN are also close hence they are added in the figure).

It's just bonkers.

 

[Dobbo]

I suspect that AMS (so far as KLM is concerned) is not the ultimate destination. MAN seem to be advertising their connections at the moment.

 

[User001]

It's an area to watch, because, LHR has traditionally been Manchesters busiest route, but, that's only 42-50 weekly next summer versus the 111 of AMS alone.

Going to be interesting.....