Passenger number prediction thread 2017.

[Ray Finkle]

Ray Finkle 13,200,000

nwoody2001 13,125,000

hammerb32 13,110,011

MJH 13,076,787

Butty 13,007,498

Jon Dempsey 12,950,000

Paul S 12,795,000

paul 12,675,899

flymetoothemoon 12,645,000

Ian F 12,456,789

Barry Beeth 12,428,000

ronnoc1k8 12,384,907

 

[nwoody2001]

You cheeky git ray!

 

[Ray Finkle]

 

[MJH]

13,076,787

 

[Seasider]

12 582 534

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray and all, my prediction for 2017 is 12,770,736...Andyc

 

[Ray Finkle]

58terminus 13,477,571

Paul S 13,200,000

Ray Finkle 13,200,000

nwoody2001 13,125,000

Aviador 13,124,000

hammerb32 13,110,011

MJH 13,076,787

Butty 13,007,498

Jon Dempsey 12,950,000

Matt995 12,820,500

andrew.clarkson 12,770,736

paul 12,675,899

flymetoothemoon 12,645,000

Seasider 12 582 534

Ian F 12,456,789

Barry Beeth 12,428,000

ronnoc1k8 12,384,907

 

[Ray Finkle]

So the 2016 total was 11,639,738.

If anybody now wishes to change their guess, or if anyone else would like a go, please feel free to add them

 

[Paulsstrange]

Ray can I change my guess to 13.2 million please ..and that will of course be my final guess as the year is now underway....thanks

 

[Matt995]

Ray, can you add me in please, I would like to guess 12,820,500

cheers

 

[Ray Finkle]

Both done.

 

[Aviador]

13,124,000

Keeping check on nwoody2001

 

[58terminus]

13,477,571 (give or take 4 as i have not booked any holidays yet).

 

[Ray Finkle]

58terminus 13,477,571

Ashley 13,250000

Paul S 13,200,000

Ray Finkle 13,200,000

nwoody2001 13,125,000

Aviador 13,124,000

hammerb32 13,110,011

MJH 13,076,787

Butty 13,007,498

Jon Dempsey 12,950,000

Matt995 12,820,500

andrew.clarkson 12,770,736

paul 12,675,899

flymetoothemoon 12,645,000

Seasider 12 582 534

Ian F 12,456,789

Barry Beeth 12,428,000

ronnoc1k8 12,384,907

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray and all, the the airport's record for passenger numbers of 11,600,000, bhx are predicting 13,000,000 for this year, do they realise that's an extra one point five million extra than last year, where do bhx management think that kind of extra passengers are coming from and any other secret airline announcements that they haven't told us about yet, I know that jet2 start in late March of this year, but they aren't going to perform a miracle that quickly. I think that one million extra is the most that Birmingham will handle, anything more, then that would be a massive miracle... Andyc

 

[IanFarquharson]

Andrew

I agree 13m seems to high, the latest BHX estimate that I have heard is 12.8m
This is still 1.2m more than 2016
Jet2 should bring 600k-700k extra pax
EK, RYR,TOM = 400k
So there is 1m
However, AA & EZY Belfast = 300k loss
So that takes us to 12.3m
So yes I am struggling North of 12.5m

 

[nwoody2001]

Well the introduction of BMIR adds just short of 100,000 seats into BHX which should cover the loss of AA.

other things to consider...

Blue Air go for 2x weekly flights to 10x weekly flights
Flying come in with 3x weekly flights
Cobalt will be doing 2x weekly flights
Vuelling with Paris at 6x weekly plus other increases
Eurowings with Vienna at 6x weekly
CSA another 2x weekly flights ...

Assuming they all balance out at 737/320 size, that's an additional 27x weekly flights so additional 9,800 seats a week or 510,000 annually ...add the 100,000 seats from BMIR ... there's 600k seats so maybe 450k-500k pax from new flights alone to add to your tally Ian!

 

[IanFarquharson]

Now EZY have confirmed they are going to maintain BHX-BFS I think the BHX 2017 pax total will be between 12.8m-13.2m, a bit vague I know but it should come in around this level which would equate to a 10.5%-13.5% rise on 2016

 

[58terminus]

Hi there ray and all, the the airport's record for passenger numbers of 11,600,000, bhx are predicting 13,000,000 for this year, do they realise that's an extra one point five million extra than last year,

Why not?It's about the the same as last years increase.A lot of focus rightly on Jet 2 and expansion by the newer airlines but don't overlook the yearly increases on established routes like Amsterdam Dublin Paris and even Belfast Int.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Midway through the year and nwoodys numbers point to circa 13.4/5 million for this year.

A reminder of the predictions.

58terminus 13,477,571

Paul S 13,200,000

Ray Finkle 13,200,000

nwoody2001 13,125,000

Aviador 13,124,000

hammerb32 13,110,011

MJH 13,076,787

Butty 13,007,498

Jon Dempsey 12,950,000

Matt995 12,820,500

andrew.clarkson 12,770,736

paul 12,675,899

flymetoothemoon 12,645,000

Seasider 12 582 534

Ian F 12,456,789

Barry Beeth 12,428,000

ronnoc1k8 12,384,907