Route Development & Rumours

[Ray Finkle]

I'll probably be the only one saying this but I'm not sure Delta would be such a wise move at the moment. American have only just returned and, whilst loads are definitely getting better, there is still room for improvement. We also have to be thankful that there seems to have been relatively little impact on United.

BHX has to tread very carefully with US expansion, with the sheer amount of flights and frequencies at LHR it has always found it difficult, I just think another operator too soon may be spreading pax a little too thinly. You also have to factor in Norwegian who will be starting US flights in 18 months or so, it may be on a smaller aircraft but that gives them flexibility with frequency and timings.

Personally I'd like to see a seasonal service from either AA or UA to another hub city, ORD, PHL, IAD, which can hopefully then be grown into a year round operation. Virgin Holidays are a different kind of service and they would be most welcome to start Florida, although, if Norwegian do well and/or Thomson give BHX a second 788 when their 789's arrive then one, or both, of those could easily fill the gap.

 

[Jon Dempsey]

hi there ray and all, as Mr Kehoe in the past has stressed that Birmingham now has the capacity to deal with up to 27 million passengers now runway extension is here

When stating that figure, he is obviously using a simple factoring calculation which spreads pax flow evenly over the day.

Try getting a flight at early morning rush hour and you will realise that this figure is purely publicity speak.
If the airport company wishes to test out the idea of a LoCo terminal, the airport already has one on the shape of the old T2. With a lick of paint and better seating arrangements, this facility could take the strain.

At the moment, with only Ryanair and Fly(may)Be housed there, the facility could be put to more use.

 

[jfy1999]

I think this discussion might be better on the general or infrastructure threads.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think this discussion might be better on the general or infrastructure threads.

:s_yes

The discussion can continue here: topic151-330.html

 

[Ray Finkle]

Cityjet will be doing the Saturday Innsbruck flight next year rather than Denim Air.

According to the article below we may see one of the new Superjet SSJ100's.

The Executive Chairman added: “We intend introducing the SSJ100 on charter activity in 2016 and will place it on our London City route network in 2017. We believe our customers will love this jet,” he added.

https://www.cityjet.com/news/cityjet-to ... j100.shtml

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray and all, regarding delta airlines, as I have mentioned in my previous post, there you see being interviewed by the media, quoting all his figures off his head, no notes to refer back to like any normal person would do when answering complicated answers, just yes now we have the extra capacity in the extended runway, we can now attract those flights to west coast of America, when does he think he's going to get that when he's not talking to delta, American Airlines, United Airlines, Virgin, or British Airways about the situation, because the longer those areas aren't sorted out, then all he'll be getting is what he's got now, bits here and there, and all this of being able to soak up the extra demand from Heathrow, Gatwick won't happen, where by Birmingham will just miss out on all the really massive fish and just gets what's left, where other airports have pulled out all the stops to get big, Birmingham will be ok, we're happy with what we've got, not really pushing on to the big numbers where all this makes a big difference for the local economy and jobs, because this is what it's all about, jobs and local economy, you here about all these local big businesses that moan about no local direct services for them to use to other long haul, if they want and need it, they got to push the chamber of commerce, and then they've got to push the airport for this big time, otherwise it will never happen... Andyc

 

[nwoody2001]

Jesus christ Andrew, I appreciate that in spelling and grammatical terms I am far from perfect, but lord, you need to discover the benefits of a full-stop! I nearly passed out and suffocated just as I reached the end of you message!

Anyway, I must admit to being a little confused as to what you are trying to say in your post? The airport has invested heavily in major physical improvements to the airport, namely a new control tower, international pier, and FINALLY a runway extension at major costs! Remember BHX is not a charity but a private company with shareholders. Therefore any money invested needs to pay dividends and as such they are not going to invest in building these major project not to use them or maximise their value. If anything, I would suspect that having convinced shareholders to invest in these project, Paul Kehoe himself will be under a lot of pressure to show them to be a success!!!

With regards to airlines you talk of, American Airlines and United Airlines are currently airlines which operate from BHX so its safe to say the airport is talking to them, and Virgin and BA have long said they have no interest in BHX (although things can change). With regard to delta, I suspect the airport will be talking to them but their links with Virgin may not help our case!

However, I don’t get why you think that failure to get Delta, Virgin or BA on-board means that BHX is destined to stay small and all other airport will become a booming success?! clarification is of course welcome!

I will be the first to admit that there is a lot more BHX can do to fulfil its potential. Great connectivity to the USA, Middle East and Asian Sub-continent being a great example, as well as securing a new Low-Cost base airline, but in the space of 12-18 months, BHX has attracted 9 new airlines to the airport, serving 19 new routes, 7 of which are either new or restored destinations previously unserved by the airport, in the form of 50 new flights per week, none of which existing the year previously!!! And that is purely on new airlines… that doesn’t include major growth from some existing carriers!!!

Ok a new base could double/triple that, but to suggest that BHX is somehow happy to stay its current size and not grow is just ridiculous!

I also get confussed about how the airport markets itself a little. In one hand you criticise PK for constantly talking about the expanded airport and how it has the potential to take the strain off the SE, and then complain that all BHX is worried about serving its local economy and not wishing to play in the big league? To me, whether you like him or not PK has done great things in shouting about BHX at a national level. Ok, lots of it will be spin, but he always ensures BHX is on the agenda be that at a local, regional or national level, more so than any other previous manager did! And more to the fact, whilst PK is promoting the airport at a national level, its also great he’s pushing it at a local level. 60% of the BHX catchment does not use BHX. Assuming BHX carries 10m at 40%, that means bhx’s catchment is 25m! he'd be a fool to not be getting as many of those back to BHX as possible surely!

 

[Ray Finkle]

Well said, totally agree.

Whether it is the debate about relieving pressure on the South East or promoting charter flights to China there is no argument that Mr K has put BHX in the spotlight more than at any other time I can remember. It must play even a small part in the recent growth.

as well as securing a new Low-Cost base airline

Priority number one for me, away based flights from Vueling and Wizz are great for making the most of the quiet periods but we desperately need a committed airline that is going to grow steadily year on year. Norwegian would be perfect (although there are rumours that a base is now on hold) but I'd also love Easyjet. Failing that some more growth from Ryanair would be welcome.

 

[DaveBham]

You'd think if Norwegian's base were on hold that a competitor would use the opportunity to get in there first...

 

[Ray Finkle]

I'd love Easyjet to jump in but I doubt that will happen. That's if a potential Norwegian base is actually on hold, it's just rumours at the moment but I do hope we'll hear something official soon.

Listed below are the number of routes from loco airlines (mainly Easyjet, Ryanair and Jet2) based at other UK airports. The numbers are from Wiki so they may be one or two out but it gives the picture.

LGW: Easyjet 110 routes, Norwegian Air 47 routes.
MAN: Easyjet 41 routes, Jet2 47 routes, Ryanair 40 routes.
STN: Ryanair 134 routes, Easyjet 26 routes.
LTN: Easyjet 51 routes, Ryanair 18 routes, Wizz Air 33 routes.
EDI: Easyjet 36 routes, Jet2 30 routes, Ryanair 33 routes.
GLA: Easyjet 19 routes, Jet2 28 routes, Ryanair 10 routes.
BRS: Easyjet 56 routes, Ryanair 30 routes.
NCL: Easyjet 15 routes, Jet2 35 routes.
EMA: Jet2 31 routes, Ryanair 35 routes.
LPL: Easyjet 29 routes, Ryanair 31 routes.
LBA: Jet2 46 routes, Ryanair 21 routes.

Compare those to BHX: Ryanair 21 routes!

I think it's clear to see that BHX desperately needs another based loco airline and one that is going to grow! It has to be either Easyjet or Norwegian.

 

[User001]

I think the lack of an Easyjet base in the midlands has to be one of the strangest anomalies in the UK aviation scene, especially when they already serve BHX!

 

[jfy1999]

I think the lack of an Easyjet base in the midlands has to be one of the strangest anomalies in the UK aviation scene, especially when they already serve BHX!

Given the success of Belfast, and given that EasyJet usually expand rapidly once they start a new base, you have to feel this is another case of our landing charges being too high for them to think an extensive BHX operation is worth their while.

But then, that raises the question, why did a financially insecure Flybe have that explosion of routes last year?? OK, it caught up to them in the end, but am I missing something here? Are landing charges lower for smaller aircraft? Or did BHX just offer them a deal so they could get it off the ground?

We definitely can't say that we're constrained by nearby airports—look at EasyJet operations from LGW, LTN and STN, EDI and GLA, or even MAN and LPL.

So the only reason I can think of is this: BHX has offered some kind of deal to the new carriers. The only other airline to see a considerable number of destinations added recently is Thomson, but they're a leisure airline and don't have the same sort of problems with landing charges that LCC's have.

If my theory is right, that means BHX can't have offered Easyjet a similar deal, or they would probably have started a base as soon as the deal was struck, given the massive potential they have from Birmingham.

Also Easyjet and BHX haven't had a particularly good relationship, dating back to when we chose BA over EZY.

In my opinion it would spell disaster for BHX, game over, if they started a base at East Midlands (which is a LCC-oriented airport).

 

[User001]

I think flybe must have been offered a huge incentive, however, being the basket case of an airline, pulled routes when BHX pulled the incentives.

The fees issue is a strange one. Obviously Easyjet have been offered a reasonable deal of sorts, otherwise, BHX wouldn't have them serving 3 routes.

Without wanting to sound like I'm pissing on the parade, but. I do think BHX has offered some good deals to get a fair few 'bang for your buck' routes/airlines in, and, it will be interesting to see how many last a long time.

I honestly think Blue Air was just a knee jerk reaction to Wizz starting BHX-OTP, Madrid rarely survives with 2 carriers when it enters the UK regions, so, someone could blink there, and, across the UK in general, not just BHX, there is far too much capacity being thrown at BCN and AMS, so, I can guarantee those markets cannot sustain the capacity currently on offer.

It's going to be interesting to watch.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There was once an easyJet presence in the Midlands but not the West Midlands.

easyJet took on Go's base at EMA but pulled out in 2009 with their then CEO blaming APD in part and the fact that mainland Europe was more competitive as a result, hence aircraft and crews were moved to optimise revenue for the company.

I can't think that easyJet is worried that a strong BHX presence would significantly dilute its BRS offering as CAA survey stats suggest that comparatively few people from BHX's core catchment use BRS anyway.

 

[jfy1999]

I think just getting Norwegian to serve Madrid was good enough, but I'm actually worried about its future now that Iberia Express are coming in.

Loads with Norwegian have been good, but not spectacular, and the Tuesday flight looks like it will be dropped next year too.

Barcelona is doing very well right now, partly because both Norwegian and Vueling, as well as Ryanair, have huge hubs and a load of connections from there.

 

[nwoody2001]

I disagree with regard to the DY Madrid route. Ok granted they were summer peak, but in July and August, the Madrid Loads at 91% and 88% respectively, which, for its first season, I think it pretty freaking great! Also, DY to MAD and IBX to MAD are after 2 different markets. DY are looking for city break tourists, whilst IBX are also looking for those but also for connecting PAX through the MAD Hub onto south America and Africa.

I was shocked that DY continues MAD at 2x weekly from W15 through to S16 but then DY have not released their Summer 16 schedule yet...

I have no basis on this, but if DY are serious about competing at BHX making them work prior to the launch on a base in the next 12-18 months, I would expect serious increases in capacity on exciting routes with an additional link through one of the Scandinavian hubs, HOPEFULLY s16 will look something like:

Madrid - 4x weekly (inline with IBX)
Barcelona - 4x week (inline with VY)
Malaga - 4x weekly (inline with RYR)
Gran Canaria and Tenerife - 2/3x weekly
Scandinavia Hub - 5x weekly

Something akin to 20 flights a week...

Maybe im dreaming but we can hope!

 

[Ray Finkle]

I have to agree with nwoody about Madrid. Norwegian were a completely new airline to the region operating on a so called 'difficult' route yet from the off Madrid hasn't seen a load factor below 80%. Obviously it's the all important yield that counts but it's a good sign. As said Iberia will offer a different type of market and unless Norwegian end up double daily I think there is room for both.

Although nobody knows what goes on in talks with airlines it's always been said that Wizz Air are difficult to get. BHX got two routes and then in the first week of ops one frequency was increased and two more new routes added. Incentives are offered by all airports but it makes you wonder why BHX either haven't been able to do a deal with Easyjet or haven't bothered to try? Maybe they don't have a great relationship? Maybe they are working with Norwegian?

Norwegian haven't released S16 yet and as we have found out they generally seem to release things quite late. Rumours are that there will be new routes and increased frequencies but a base may not happen until 2017. That is just a rumour though and these things are quite often wrong, they keep saying 'big expansion plans' when asked about BHX on social media so we'll have to wait and see what happens.

There is also a rumour that S16 may see another Flybe based aircraft added with a couple of new routes, I think Rotterdam has been touted? They seem to be up and down at the moment so I wouldn't hold your breath.

The next few weeks could prove interesting.

 

[Brum X]

Is the wait over ?????

As you all probably are aware or may not be, the chinese premier will be on a UK state visit this week and one of those days he will be visiting Manchester which will be a big day for them. There is supposed to be an announcement and it is rumoured to be the confirmation of a new direct flight between MAN and China.

If this is true then i am actually glad that it is finally going to be confirmed and good for MAN, if it is not then the wait is definatly not over.


Anyway the next week will be an interesting one, one to watch. We all have been followng this subject for many years now and i really feel that if MAN is to be victorious in its quest to have this flight, then BHX could not have done much more really, i think they have all worked there socks off trying to get the airlines to look at BHX and as with lots of things that co-exist at BHX and MAN (Emirates, UA, Turkish, Even Air Transat) if MAN gets good news this week, i firmly believe BHX will get a service sometime in the future with another carrier.

Lets all keep the faith :smile:

 

[Ray Finkle]

Manchester was always going to get a flight to China first, it is the next logical place outside of London. They have also been after this for many years and have put in alot of hard work. There will be flights to BHX in the future but MAN was always the natural first step outside of the capital. The charter programme is going well but is still very small and needs alot more to become fully scheduled.

For me BHX has bigger priorities at the moment.

Firstly getting another based loco and one that is going to expand in the future has to be top priority. Europe has got better recently but there is still much to be done. Lisbon, Prague, Oslo, Stockholm etc all need services and there are a few niche destinations that would be nice such Porto, Florence/Pisa, Bilbao (incidentally the latter are all available from BRS with Easyjet).

Secondly long haul leisure. Orlando is ridiculous at once weekly, Toronto is similar. Cuba and Las Vegas need to be added asap along with Vancouver.

Emirates have only just gone 3x daily with a possible A380 on the way, Turkish are slowly but surely expanding and we now have two major American carriers. I think either AUH or DOH need to be added next along with a seasonal American hub, preferably ORD but IAD, PHL or ATL would do, hopefully that could then grow into a year round service.

Once all that's done and settled we can then start chasing LAX, SFO, HKG, KUL, BKK, PEK, PVG, CAN, CPT....... :smile:

 

[jfy1999]

I think it's been mentioned on here previously, but Lufthansa Cityline are expected to hand all the Munich flights over to Mainline at the turn of the year.

Does anyone know whether Eurowings will continue to use the CRJ900s when they take over from Germanwings, or will they go straight in with the new A320s?

I imagine once they've handed over all their CRJs to Lufthansa Cityline, the schedules will need some serious rejigging. I think handing over the CRJs is a mistake because at current frequencies passenger loads are not yet high enough for anything larger. Germanwings haven't used A319/A320 half as much as I would have expected.

As for long haul leisure, I hate to say it but it looks like Thomson are going to use their new long haul fleet to expand at other airports instead. Gatwick will get two or three new long haul routes from them next year including one to Costa Rica, presumably to compete with Norwegian's new San Juan flights. Stansted is getting long haul from Thomson next year, adding to Thomas Cook's new routes, and even Dublin is getting Thomson long haul flights!

You have to wonder whether Norwegian are looking into Orlando at all. I've tried asking them on social media. I was just told that long haul was "very possible" and I should keep an eye on their news feed.