Route Development & Rumours

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Kevin Farnell, thanks for your last post, it was an excellent reply from, very appreciated, I think that Carl W needed to understand that this forum is for all aviation enthusiasts, and that type of language will not be tolerated at all by the administrator, we all give banter to one and other and that's where it go, and down the lines of breaking a forum rules with that type of language, we are all hear to support the great work that the administrator does, because some forums charge you or ask you for a donation help the running costs, so lucky that the administrator doesn't charged us for using his forum, so let's get back to what the forum is all about... let's keep moving and get Birmingham airport growing bigger and better... Andyc

 

[richard winterbourn]

Re Jet2, my post yesterday of 2.26pm voiced similar sentiments to Brum X. The time-scale for this new base we are led to believe may extend to up to 18 months. A lot can happen in that time. And what about the personnel they are said to be recruiting now for BHX? Are they in fact recruiting, does anyone have any information on this front? I hope i am wrong because Jet2 would indeed be a good fit for BHX, but i remain sceptical.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Thank you Andrew.

Foul and/or abusive language will not be tolerated, we are a forum that can be accessed by people of all ages and posts need to reflect that. This place is not heavily moderated and we try to aim for a more relaxed approach, sadly there will always be a minority who just can't help themselves. It's not the first time but it will be the last, if suspensions and/or bannings need to happen then they will.

Re Jet2, my post yesterday of 2.26pm voiced similar sentiments to Brum X. The time-scale for this new base we are led to believe may extend to up to 18 months. A lot can happen in that time. And what about the personnel they are said to be recruiting now for BHX? Are they in fact recruiting, does anyone how any information on this front? I hope i am wrong because Jet2 would indeed be a good fit for BHX, but i remain sceptical.

I guess even the best well laid plans can, and do, change. Recessions, world events, oil prices hikes etc could quite easily have an effect on possible expansion.

If we are to see an autumn start then I would imagine that it will be subject to new aircraft deliveries, which start in September. I'm unaware if they have a firm date confirmed for the first one but we've seen with Flybe what can happen if the delivery schedule overruns.

As much as I'd love to see Jet2 if they are put off by a new base from Norwegian and big expansion from Vueling, Ryanair and Monarch then I think we'd still be happy?

 

[jfy1999]

Regards RJA, I have noticed the occasional visit to BHX by Jordanian aircraft on FR24 but no news of why or any news of potential news of a new service to Amman.

Monarch have acquired a couple of ex-Royal Jordanian A321s, so it must have been them you saw. They would have been arriving for attention in the Monarch hangar prior to entering service.

As much as I'd love to see Jet2 if they are put off by a new base from Norwegian and big expansion from Vueling, Ryanair and Monarch then I think we'd still be happy?

I have to agree. Although we could do with a new based airline I'm not sure what Jet2 could bring to BHX that we haven't got already. I would definitely choose a Norwegian base ahead of a Jet2 base, partly because of their long haul potential and partly because Norwegian don't have another base just up the road at EMA and wouldn't have to try and balance their operations between two competing airports.

 

[nwoody2001]

some valid points regarding what impact expansion from 1 airlines could have on the plans of another airline, but something to consider...

1. airlines will be doing their research. Whilst we like to think we are informed, I suspect airlines like to be more informed. Yes they will never know the exact plans, but if Jet2 are interested in BHX, you hope for their sake that they have done their homework!!! They will have seen the expansion from the likes of VY, W8, D8 and others and probably want a piece of the pie. Their announcement, if it comes, will not be don't at any convenient time, but at a time best suited to any launch in the context of their competition. All you need to do is look at EKa nd QR, with EK launching the A388 3 days before QR arrived...

2. I actually think it would be good for BHX to have a little bit of a battle between the airlines. historically we have never had enough LoCo operators to have a battle. Historically, any battle at BHX has been between RYR and their smaller competitor, where RYR beat them into submission and won. Now, with a great range of big players coming into BHX, any such battle could be more interesting... this time more likely a battle to the top, instead of a battle to the bottom!!!

 

[Paulsstrange]

To be Frank (ooooh Betty ) sorry bad joke !

But to be frank if i were Jet 2 id dip toe in water first then if warm..grow...

My guess would be if Jet 2 do agree to op ex bhx (and there is a lot of smoke from a lot of sources so expect a fire )..it will be 2 aircraft and under 10 destinations....then grow organically...

 

[Brummiegem]

I have been monitoring this discussion for the last couple of days.I have found all your thoughts very interesting.
I do believe a Jet2 base could be a good fit for BHX.More capacity on Med,Greek Islands,Canary Islands and possibly Turkey would great.
However what does worry me slightly is routes like Prague.Jet2 do flights here and on paper would be a good thing,as BMI baby and CSA did get on side by side for a couple of years before we all know what happened.
Sometimes we have to be careful about is,what we wish for,but I am sure these airlines know what they are doing.There is a nagging doubt that maybe we might just be pushing our luck.
City break type routes need to be chosen carefully or we could end with an all or nothing scenario,something we unfortunately know more than most about.

 

[thunderchild]

Sometimes we have to be careful about is,what we wish for,but I am sure these airlines know what they are doing.There is a nagging doubt that maybe we might just be pushing our luck.
City break type routes need to be chosen carefully or we could end with an all or nothing scenario,something we unfortunately know more than most about.

I agree. While Ray's recent figures demonstrate that there should be more than enough room for extra capacity on the core sun routes I remain cautious on the sudden doubling up of cities that have been left un-served for so long. Happy to be wrong off course, I'd just like to think that if Jet2 (or anyone else for that matter) were to set up shop they would bring with them something extra to the table.

 

[Butty]

I have been monitoring this discussion for the last couple of days.I have found all your thoughts very interesting.
I do believe a Jet2 base could be a good fit for BHX.More capacity on Med,Greek Islands,Canary Islands and possibly Turkey would great.
However what does worry me slightly is routes like Prague.Jet2 do flights here and on paper would be a good thing,as BMI baby and CSA did get on side by side for a couple of years before we all know what happened.
Sometimes we have to be careful about is,what we wish for,but I am sure these airlines know what they are doing.There is a nagging doubt that maybe we might just be pushing our luck.
City break type routes need to be chosen carefully or we could end with an all or nothing scenario,something we unfortunately know more than most about.

Like Brummiegen I have also been monitoring the comments on here. Whilst any new base at BHX would be welcome, I don't believe Jet2 is the answer. I would rather see Norwegian and others who have global point to point aspirations. The Jet2 market I fear will just compete with established routes and where there are gaps in the route network I would rather see national airlines filling those slots. The reason being that BHX is a statement about the City of Birmingham (start the Elgar music) and whilst the low cost and tourist market is important the what will make Birmingham great is a recognition across Europe, in particular, is that this is a city with which "we can do business" and for foreigners to think that they want their airline to fly them to their destination. Getting behind Birmingham I think is the sim of every regular on this forum. So let's worry not about Jet2 and let's welcome LOT, Finnair, more from SAS, Air France and Lufthansa, TAP and welcome back Alitalia!

 

[Ray Finkle]

So let's worry not about Jet2 and let's welcome LOT, Finnair, more from SAS, Air France and Lufthansa, TAP and welcome back Alitalia!

Totally agree.

Is there any reason why we couldn't have both though?

Two separate markets both with room for growth?

Jet2 could offer more capacity needed on the sun routes aswell as offering unserved destinations, such as Pisa and Split. Norwegian could also bolster more holiday destinations aswell as improving Scandinavia and if we're really lucky, more long haul.

I think that still leaves room for the likes of Finnair (Asia), TAP (South America) and Austrian?

 

[Butty]

Is there any reason why we couldn't have both though?

Two separate markets both with room for growth?

Jet2 could offer more capacity needed on the sun routes aswell as offering unserved destinations, such as Pisa and Split. Norwegian could also bolster more holiday destinations aswell as improving Scandinavia and if we're really lucky, more long haul.

I think that still leaves room for the likes of Finnair (Asia), TAP (South America) and Austrian?

Ray, I would be very happy with both. I think the south American market is the most untapped from the UK. Rio charters cannot be far away. Finnair to Asia would be good. Like to see more in Africa - the African boom is near.

 

[richard winterbourn]

Couldn't agree more Butty. For as long as i have been interested in aviation, Birmingham has chased the tail of Manchester whether it be in securing Emirates, Qatar, other airlines and now scheduled flights to China. The outstanding case which bucked that trend was securing Air India.

BHX doesn't have to follow, and i am sure the route development team and management appreciate this and have their eyes focussed on developing markets. And that is why i bang on about Brazil and South America. Politics and Dilma Roussef are an aberration in this country's increasing standing in the world: The World Cup, The Olympics are symptomatic of how this country is now playing in the top league.

I travel to Brazil frequently and believe that someone soon, outside of London, is going to achieve direct scheduled flight to Rio, Sao Paulo or Brasilia. I just hope it is BHX.

 

[Aviador]

IF Jet2 were to set up stall at BHX they would not be put off by competition.

To say it put the fear of God into our Leeds members when they set up stall at Manchester is an understatement but in the end the two bases have complimented each other.

When Jet2 set up at Manchester is was the airports largest ever single commitment by any airline. That's not to say they will do the same at BHX though.

By the way, a big thank you to everybody on here for the way you all handled that idiot over the weekend. The credit goes to you guys who make the forum what it is!

Aviador

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Aviador, thanks for kind words, very much appreciated, thanks...I totally agree with you about Jet2 on Manchester, let's hope they do eventually make the announcement soon... Andyc

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think a potential Jet2 base could compliment their EMA base, dual crewing etc. My one concern would be that it didn't work for Monarch, who quickly pulled out of EMA.

I'd also love to see more from the full service airlines as much as anyone, but in today's modern world it's the loco's that bring the passengers and the growth.

After the exit of BA, Birmingham ignored them for way too long and is still paying the price. Look at the likes of Budapest, Warsaw, Sofia and Bucharest, all now available via the loco's. If we see a return of Oslo it's likely to be with Norwegian, Madrid was finally bought back by Norwegian (although we now also have Iberia) and Lisbon is to return with Monarch.

These days the real growth comes from the likes of Easyjet, Ryanair, Jet2, Vueling, Norwegian, Wizz Air etc

 

[User001]

Even the return of Iberia to the UK regions is via the low cost 'Iberia Express' brand and not Iberia proper.

Low cost will be the way forward for the foreseeable. We may see the odd full service carrier re-add UK regional, but, they will be the exception rather than the rule.

 

[nwoody2001]

Agreed with User001. With regard to passenger and airport growth, the future in Europe is low cost. Yes the flag carriers will play their part, but primarily only on single routes serving their respective hubs (for which we will never be with the exception potentially of flybe)... volume will come from low cost and BHX need to finally catch up and embrace that (which I believe they now have)!

This doesn't mean we shouldn't look to better our portfolio of flag carriers and retain our varied customer base but we equaly cant afford to be 'snob' if we want to compete!!!

 

[Kevin Farnell]

I think that the most important factor of the Iberia service (whether that be 'mainline', or 'express'), is the interlining available through Madrid. It adds significant connections from BHX to South America.
I'd also love to see TAP, tap into (pardon the pun) this market.

Kevin

 

[jfy1999]

Just noticed that Delta resume their Shannon-JFK service today, it's seasonal but operates on a 767. I know there is a considerable SNN-US market, but what's the catchment area like? Surely not as big as the BHX catchment area?

I hope we can get Delta on board in the next two or three years as there are so many potential BHX-US passengers draining away to north and south, and it looks like our AA service is under-utilised for much of the year.

It would be interesting if someone took a survey to see how many of LHR and MAN's US-bound passengers originated in the Midlands.

 

[User001]

There is a good article about BHX in the latest Airports of the world magazine.

One thing of interest was that he said there was an issue regarding the timings of the new China flights.

He said they were working on getting better arrival/departure times at the China end, but, I couldn't work out if this was a pre-launch issue and the timings published are now the desirable ones, or if the timings could change, as there is no indication of when the interview took place.