Route Development & Rumours

[User001]

I would imagine Jet2 could carve a good niche. And still be room to play with.

In terms of routes and examples of how there is plenty of room, Manchester had Monarch, Jet2, Ryanair, Easyjet, Thomson, Vueling and Thomas Cook all on Alicante with ipthe region of 10 flights per day in some cases, and still Norwegian entered the route.

This shows that there should be enough room for Jet2 and the other new entrants. Let's not forget, Jet2 will also have jet2 holidays behind it to help fill seats.

To me, jet2 and BHX is a no brainer, the only question for me would be, what took them so long?

 

[thunderchild]

Having flown with Jet2 before I can honestly say they would be a great addition to BHX's portfolio.

If a base were to materialise it would be a good to see them add a few un-served cities (Pisa, Vienna come to mind) on top of the usual bucket and spade routes.

 

[Jon Dempsey]

I would imagine Jet2 could carve a good niche. And still be room to play with.

In terms of routes and examples of how there is plenty of room, Manchester had Monarch, Jet2, Ryanair, Easyjet, Thomson, Vueling and Thomas Cook all on Alicante with ipthe region of 10 flights per day in some cases, and still Norwegian entered the route.

This shows that there should be enough room for Jet2 and the other new entrants. Let's not forget, Jet2 will also have jet2 holidays behind it to help fill seats.

To me, jet2 and BHX is a no brainer, the only question for me would be, what took them so long?

I hope you're right User.

I would hate to see new carriers pulling routes.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think that there is more than enough room for them, especially as they'd also bring the holiday company with them.

Numbers on the core sun routes are still very much down on past years (Ian posted them not too long back) and we still lag behind EMA.

If we compare last year to 2005 you can see how much room for growth there is.

ALC 332 703 - 301 301
AGP 379 859 - 290 778
PMI 396 622 - 254 763
TFS 336 85 - 273 380

This year the gap should be closed with big increases from Ryanair and Monarch. Norwegian have also increased Malaga and have Tenerife for summer, we'll also have Vueling on Alicante and Malaga.

We don't just want to close the gap, we want to pass those numbers. I think Jet2 would do very well indeed and if anything it may well put pressure on Thomson and Thomas Cook.

 

[nwoody2001]

well when you look at the destinations Jet2 serve, you can really start to see the potential Jet2 has at BHX. As some may know, I'm a huge fan of competition and choice to the consumer in order to bring passengers into BHX. When you therefore look at the routes that Jet2 currently services and compare that with the unserved routes from BHX and thouse routes with only 2 or less operators on the routes (normally TCX and TOM) you see the list below....


Alicante – MON, RYR, TCX, TOM, VLG (Potential)

Amsterdam – BEE, KLM (Potential)

Antalya – TCX, TOM

Barcelona – MON, NAX, RYR, VLG (Potential)

Bergerac – BEE (Potential)

Bodrum – TCX, TOM (Potential)

Budapest - WZZ (Potential)

Corfu – RYR, TCX, TOM

Crete – MON, TCX, TOM

Dalaman – MON, TCX, TOM

Dubrovnik – MON, TOM (Potential)

Dusseldorf – (Unserved) (Potential)

Faro – MON, RYR, TCX, TOM

Florence – (Unserved) (Potential)

Fuerteventura – MON, RYR, TCX, TOM

Geneva – EZY, BEE, TOM (Potential)

Girona – (Unserved) (Potential)

Gran Canaria – MON, NAX, RYR, TCX, TOM

Grenoble – EZY, MON, TCX

Ibiza – MON, RYR, TCX, TOM

Jersey - BEE

Kefalonia – TCX, TOM (Potential)

Kos – TCX, TOM (Potential)

Krakow – RYR (Potential)

Lanzarote – MON, RYR, TCX, TOM

Larnaca – MON, TCX, TOM

Lyon - BEE (Potential)

Madeira – MON, TOM (Potential)

Majorca – EVE, MON, RYR, TCX, TOM

Malaga – MON, NAX, TCX, TOM, VLG

Malta – AMC, RYR, TCX

Menorca – MON, TCX, TOM

Murcia – RYR (Potential)

Naples – TCX, TOM (Potential)

New York – AAL, UAL

Nice – MON (Potential)

Paphos – MON, TCX, TOM

Paris – AFR, BEE (Potential)

Pisa – (Unserved) (Potential)

Prague - CSA (Potential)

Pula - TCX (Potential)

Reus – TCX, TOM (Potential)

Rhodes – TCX, TOM (Potential)

Rome - MON (Potential)

Salzburg – MON, TCX, TOM

Sofia – RYR, WZZ

Split – (Unserved) (Potential)

Tenerife – MON, NAX, RYR, TCX, TOM, VLG

Toulous - TOM (Potential)

Turin – MON, TCX, TOM

Venice – MON (Potential)

Verona - RYR (Potential)

Vienna – (Unserved) (Potential)

Zante – TCX, TOM (Potential)

 

[User001]

Dusseldorf is definately served from BHX Woody, by Flybe and Eurowings.

I'm not aware of Jet2 serving Florence, however.

 

[nwoody2001]

It's a Wikipedia appraisal with regard to the BHX destinations, and the list of Jet2 destinations are off their website

 

[Ray Finkle]

Lots of potential there, not just to the main ALC, AGP, FAO, PMI etc but also some other popular holiday spots and city destinations. Pisa would be great aswell as more to Krakow. I think Prague could cope with them alongside Czech Airlines.

If we do get them I'd like EDI to be included. Flybe have it all to themselves at the moment and prices can be ridiculous.

I used to enjoy short breaks there when BMIBaby were on the route.

 

[User001]

Ah, not sure why Dusseldorf is missing then, it's served about 7 times a day.

In terms of the jet2 routes, Florence is actually Pisa, as the website says 'Pisa(Florence)' as the destination.

 

[JENNYJET]

When studying for my Law degree, I was informed by a prominent QC that evidence based upon extracts from Wikipedia would be inadmissible in court.

Heresay evidence is no evidence.

However, I do find the lists on this forum informative as it updates my knowledge of what goes at BHX.

It was about the time Boeing started taking orders for the Dreamliner the BHX article on Wikipedia suggested that Qatar would commence services along with Royal Jordanian.

It has taken a while but we have Qatar but no RJA but it 'was on Wikipedia so it must be true' hence the heresay bit.

Regards RJA, I have noticed the occasional visit to BHX by Jordanian aircraft on FR24 but no news of why or any news of potential news of a new service to Amman.

 

[Ray Finkle]

As we're on the subject of competition, along with the sun routes the likes of Italy has already been mentioned. There are one or two more Eastern European destinations where I'd like to see a little more.

Gdansk - Poland is popular yet we've had Ryanair stuck at 2x weekly for too long. Last year Luton saw 270,000 on this route, Doncaster had almost 80K and Liverpool over 50K. We had 40,000. It's a strong destination for Wizz Air so if we could get them in at maybe 2x weeky it could kick start some serious growth.

Katowice - See above. 300K from Luton, 80K from Doncaster, 37K from BHX.

Krakow - Another popular destination stuck at 2x weekly. Liverpool saw over 100K last year, Leeds 55K and EMA 46K. BHX had 38K. It's rumoured that Wizz are in talks with KRK about a base, there is also the potential for Jet2 should a BHX base become a reality.

Vilnius - A new destination replacing the previously served Kaunas but Lithuania too has been stuck at 2x weekly. Luton had 230K to Vilnius and 86K to Kaunas. Doncaster had over 40K, BHX saw 36K.

Budapest - Another that has recently returned, now at 3x weekly and going A321 in Oct. It's rumoured that Wizz want this route daily asap but I wonder if a bit of competition could spice things a little. Luton had almost half a million on the route last year, MAN 135K and BRS almost 60K. 3x weekly A321's offer approx 72K seats per year, with the Wizz average lf of 86% that's approx 62K, I think there is room for more.

Prague - Great to see Czech Airlines back on the route but such a popular destination should be able to support them and a leisure carrier. Ryanair have recently made it a base or again (if we get them) Jet2 could do well.

Warsaw now has some good competition along with Sofia, hopefully the numbers will grow quickly. Blue Air are selling out Bucharest and are increasing frequency for winter, hopefully this may spur Wizz on for S17 (A321?). Tallin and Riga are two missing routes that I'd like to see along with Lublin and Kosice. More to Romania would also be nice, Cluj, Iassi and/or Bacau?

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray and all, if a hopefully we get confirmation and the announcement either middle of end of May 2016,or just before the end of this year's summer season, then the potential for a winter season this year and then a summer season next and year after that for the 53 destinations listed above are mind blowing to say the least, if you use a 757 with 258 pax multiple by three per day at 53 destinations, this gives you a daily pax of 41,022 then multiple this by seven days in the week, this gives you 287,154 per week, then six months is twenty six weeks, this would give you six million, eight hundred and ninety one thousand and six hundred and sixteen pax in six months season, what a potential prospect if it hopefully comes true, plus also the lucky possibility of also Finnair and Delta, now that would be really something to cheer about.. hey ray...let's just hope and pray that we get the news soon, just think that extra 6 million plus would put Birmingham airport within six plus of Manchesters twenty five million plus...just think a minute ray of the potential if it were to happen and come true, you can just smell it and feel.it in the distance, the potential for Birmingham airport to expand and grow is there for Birmingham to take it and use it...Andyc

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Andrew, I applaud you for sitting down and doing the maths.
However, it is very unlikely that all 53 destinations would be served. I think Nwoody was just looking at the potential of each route. If 53 routes were to be served daily, with each aircraft serving 3 destinations per day, it would require 18 aircraft based (53/3=17.666).

Regards

Kevin

 

[IanFarquharson]

Andrew

You have gone way off this planet !
Jet 2 are likely to have 2 738's based flying to 8 destinations.
Not 53 destinations !
I think you need to think before you post such stupid figures !
Sorry for the rant.

Ian

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Carl W, I don't think that there is any need for that type of language on this forum at all, I take that language that you have just mentioned to every member on this forum very offensively indeed, there is no need for it, and I hope that you retract your statement and apologise to all those on the forum that you have offended, including the administrator who work very tirelessly to keeps a very tight ship on this forum. I expect you to apologise to all...Andyc

 

[nwoody2001]

Ignoring the post above...

Yes I think in the event Jet2 did launch a base, we'd be looking at 2x 738NGs to start with serving between 8-12 destinations. Assuming each aircraft would operate 3x routes a day, that would equate to 830,000 seats offered per annum, which would likely equate to between 625,000-700,000 additional pax a year, no mean feat for a single airline new to an airport...

though maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves here, jet2 have not announced anything yet lol!

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there kevin Farnell, thank for your reply, I was only thinking out hyper theatrically if jet2 were to announce that amount of destinations, but as with any new Starters, as you say 8-10 maybe, then build upon this over winter, then come the summer, see how it grows, I know very well that an airline isn't going to flood the market straight away, it has to see like emirates and qatar is going before it decides to increase and announce any further routes, I do hope that jet2 do come, this will mean an even busier airport next year and the year after that, which is what we want from Birmingham to catch up with Edinburgh and then finally overtake if it can Luton airport... Andyc

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Thanks, Andrew.

I sincerely hope that my post didn't cause you any offence, that was never my intention. I always try to keep my posts polite and considerate to other forum members.
As I said, it's great to see forum members looking at figures and the potential of airlines and routes.

Also, I 'liked' you post regarding Carl W, as I think you've shown a very balanced and mature attitude to a very offensive post. You have also stood up strongly for both the members and the values of this forum. I applaud you .

I've enjoyed your previous posts, and look forward to reading your future contributions.

Regards

Kevin

 

[Ray Finkle]

Jet2's biggest bases are MAN and LBA where they operate 46 and 45 routes respectively, some of those are seasonal. EMA has 37 destinations and will have 7 aircraft for S17. Belfast is currently their smallest base with 17 routes, only 5 of those are year round. It all depends on frequency too, we have Monarch with 9 based aircraft yet they only do 28 routes, 16 year round.

I'd be very happy with 2x aircraft doing 8-10 routes to start with, once they're in they can then grow. We just need them in first

 

[Brum X]

My only concern regarding a new base for Jet 2 at BHX is that if confirmation of this new base is not going to be announced for 6/12 months, some even suggesting 18 months, thats quite a long time away and i am hearing "mutterings" of other expansion planned by other airlines at BHX. Within the next 6/12 months BHX could have a new base from Norweigan, we could have several new routes from Vueling and we could also see expansion from Monarch for example. All the talk about these other airlines could just be a warning to any new potential airline such as Jet2 to stay away and keep off our Patch (Sorry i also need to mention Ryanair, they could also give BHX something over the next 12 months) Im just abit worried at the moment that one of these other airlines could be first ahead of any Jet2 announcement and scupper the whole thing. Ihope this isnt the case and indeed we could have numerous announcements from all of these incl Jet2.