Route Development & Rumours

[IanFarquharson]

Sorry Ryanair are starting Venice not Vienna !

 

[KJAY 786]

So much useful information sad Turkmeinistan, Qatar and USA carriers don't come back to Birmingham fingers crossed our dream comes true x x x

 

[DarloPlaneBoy]

So much useful information sad Turkmeinistan, Qatar and USA carriers don't come back to Birmingham fingers crossed our dream comes true x x x

Looking at the US stats That was across a Year many Airlines carry 100K plus Passengers a Day or in a few hours across a whole year that is equivalent to

Chicago 312.8 Passengers A Day 3 Maximum 757's if we used Economy currently UA have 757's and AA don't both serve ORD

Newark 472.8 Passengers A Day Enough to fill maybe two 767's which UA have again going off all Economy figures or 200 assumed Eco Seats
JFK 190.4 Passengers a Day that is enough to fill am A320 Once a day none of the American Carriers would do that and unless someone operates a 3 class A320-NEO even then there ay enough for two or more flights a day.

Toronto 123.4 Passengers a Day not even enough to fill any of the said Aircraft demand might be higher these days but with MAN and LHR having service to all of the above and after Covid and cost of living I sincerely doubt it would be. I also don't think any Airline could see it reasonable to operate those routes. With either old Equipment or at all. Also Qatar probably will, Turkmenistan I believe I still banned from UK Airspace
Doing the Figures

Ashbagat 180.4 Passengers a Day Turkmenistan would have to use there 737 then as the 757 isn't allowed and the 777 wouldn't be full

Doha 362 Passengers a Day Enough to fill a 787 which QR use. But sadly other than Doha there is barely any demand

To figure this out you devide the figure of say JFK by 365 let's not do 366 let's just assume it ran every day all year. Those are your figures pretty poor except Doha as QR have used 787's here before.

 

[DarloPlaneBoy]

Looking at the US stats That was across a Year many Airlines carry 100K plus Passengers a Day or in a few hours across a whole year that is equivalent to
Chicago 312.8 Passengers A Day 3 Maximum 757's if we used Economy currently UA have 757's and AA don't both serve ORD
Newark 472.8 Passengers A Day Enough to fill maybe two 767's which UA have again going off all Economy figures or 200 assumed Eco Seats
JFK 190.4 Passengers a Day that is enough to fill am A320 Once a day none of the American Carriers would do that and unless someone operates a 3 class A320-NEO even then there ay enough for two or more flights a day.
Toronto 123.4 Passengers a Day not even enough to fill any of the said Aircraft demand might be higher these days but with MAN and LHR having service to all of the above and after Covid and cost of living I sincerely doubt it would be. I also don't think any Airline could see it reasonable to operate those routes. With either old Equipment or at all. Also Qatar probably will, Turkmenistan I believe I still banned from UK Airpsace
Doing the Figures
Ashbagat 180.4 Passengers a Day Turkmenistan would have to use there 737 then as the 757 isn't allowed and the 777 wouldn't be full
Doha 362 Passengers a Day Enough to fill a 787 which QR use. But sadly other than Doha there is barely any demand To figure this out you devide the figure of say JFK by 365 let's not do 366 let's just assume it ran every day all year. Those are your figures pretty poor except Doha as QR have used 787's here before.

As I seem to have lost the Edit Button Going on what I said Please and I don't mean any harm stopping phoning up Airlines and asking them to fly here 1 it looks That BHX ay doing it to. 2 Just because it may seem let's say EK are doing well to Dubai doesn't mean if Eva Air flew to Bangkok from here it would do well in fact EK probably have lots of people on the BHX 777 connect to a BKK A380. Based on what I figured out Airlines have to do all this maths I ay great at it and ay an expert but I do play Airlines Manager on my phone I have a pretty large Airline with 11 hubs, 508 routes 507 of which are active 1 is a new one awaiting the delivery of two new aircraft being Boeing 737-800's to start a route from Birmingham to Stockholm I have 706/708 aircraft and make a fortune. But let's factor in costs Say I make £700 Mil Turnover a Day let's factor in Flight Costs normally let's say about £200 Mil the game has Dollars so Idk that pays for Fuel, Ancillary revune ie Food, Entertainment, Staff Costs and stuff like that all included in flight costs. Then there is Tax both Airport Tax so mostly British Airport Tax and Oversees Terrority Tax. All airports have different levels of tax let's assume Britain has 5% and US as I have JFK has 4% so BHX charges me 5% I fly 5 times a day to JFK 3 Widebodies carrying about 321 Passengers plus Cargo 787-10, A359 and 772 and then a 752 and A321-NEO-LR so there's that plus different Fuel Prices the 787 might burn 1.2 Tonnes of Fuel per Passengers whereas the 752 might burn 2.7 Tonnes Per Passenger. So anyway let's move to real life EWR was the best US route on there UA are the only Airline who serve there Transatlantic so let's say UA were to launch a route from BHX to EWR on a 767-300ER that can 275 Passengers say. United charge say £500 for Economy Passengers so let's say £500 for 210 Economy Passengers is £105,000 Profit then say they charge £1,200 for Bussiness Class say they can Seats 30 that is £36,000 then say 15 First Class pay £3,000 that is £4,500 add in Cargo let's say £60,000 that is a total of £206,000. Now of that £206,000 4% goes to Newark as Tax that is £82,400. It takes of now a 767 say uses 2.5 Tonnes of Fuel per Passenger to fly 3,380 Miles between EWR and BHX which costs Say £5,000 2.5 × 275 is 687.8 Tonnes of Fuel at £60 so say they load 750 Tonnes of Fuel on board that is about £15,000 so deducting £206,000 from £82,400 leaves United with £123,600 of Profit then take of BHX's 5% of Tax leaves United with £61,800 Profit take off say another £15K in Fuel and that is about £31,800 Profit not including paying for Staff or Costs of Food and other stuff including Cleaners, Ground Staff. Basically there is no profit I used a 767 based on it being able to take the most Passengers. So basically just leave the Airlines alone Based on what I have figured out It ay worth United flying here so just don't ring them Unless you have any idea how costs work and do research into how people would fly BHX to Say Bahrain or Newark or Boston the Airport should be doing that anyway.

 

[A400]

And again what is the harm in calling. If people want to do that they should be able to do so without being told off.

It shows that some want to see services to their local airports.

Of course that doesn’t mean say if you call Cathay Pacific that they will automatically do services to Hong Kong but it shows interest and that some want it to come to BHX and they can pass these suggestions onto the relevant people.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Looking at the US stats That was across a Year many Airlines carry 100K plus Passengers a Day or in a few hours across a whole year that is equivalent to
Chicago 312.8 Passengers A Day 3 Maximum 757's if we used Economy currently UA have 757's and AA don't both serve ORD
Newark 472.8 Passengers A Day Enough to fill maybe two 767's which UA have again going off all Economy figures or 200 assumed Eco Seats
JFK 190.4 Passengers a Day that is enough to fill am A320 Once a day none of the American Carriers would do that and unless someone operates a 3 class A320-NEO even then there ay enough for two or more flights a day.
Toronto 123.4 Passengers a Day not even enough to fill any of the said Aircraft demand might be higher these days but with MAN and LHR having service to all of the above and after Covid and cost of living I sincerely doubt it would be. I also don't think any Airline could see it reasonable to operate those routes. With either old Equipment or at all. Also Qatar probably will, Turkmenistan I believe I still banned from UK Airpsace
Doing the Figures
Ashbagat 180.4 Passengers a Day Turkmenistan would have to use there 737 then as the 757 isn't allowed and the 777 wouldn't be full
Doha 362 Passengers a Day Enough to fill a 787 which QR use. But sadly other than Doha there is barely any demand To figure this out you devide the figure of say JFK by 365 let's not do 366 let's just assume it ran every day all year. Those are your figures pretty poor except Doha as QR have used 787's here before.

Don't forget that the figures Ian has quoted are total passenger numbers for the route. That means both outbound and inbound. Therefore any daily figure that you have obtained by dividing by 365 then needs to be divided by 2. So for example the Chicago service would have averaged 156.4 passengers per flight. This assumes that all flights operated and on a daily basis.

Kevin

 

[DarloPlaneBoy]

Don't forget that the figures Ian has quoted are total passenger numbers for the route. That means both outbound and inbound. Therefore any daily figure that you have obtained by dividing by 365 then needs to be divided by 2. So for example the Chicago service would have averaged 156.4 passengers per flight. This assumes that all flights operated and on a daily basis.

Kevin

Oh yeah it does doesn't it that affect my maths below that explaining to Kayjay why he shouldn't ring the airlines

 

[DarloPlaneBoy]

And again what is the harm in calling. If people want to do that they should be able to do so without being told off.

It shows that some want to see services to their local airports.

Of course that doesn’t mean say if you call Cathay Pacific that they will automatically do services to Hong Kong but it shows interest and that some want it to come to BHX and they can pass these suggestions onto the relevant people.

And Again not moaning just saying I have done the Maths you might want to fly from Birmingham to Hong Kong the route statistics might not back up Cathay to fly here. You might have interest go phone them up but I highly doubt there is much profit my example used a full flight.

Now I see what your saying but Kayjay also shared a number of an airline on a Public forum. Also I am a fan of West Bromwich Albion we need a Striker If I phoned say Ivan Toney of Brentford to join us as I wanted him to 1 it looks bad on Albion for not phoning him 2 maybe he doesn't want to join Albion and we don't want him maybe they could be discussing things and me phoning could affect that.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

As I seem to have lost the Edit Button Going on what I said Please and I don't mean any harm stopping phoning up Airlines and asking them to fly here 1 it looks That BHX ay doing it to. 2 Just because it may seem let's say EK are doing well to Dubai doesn't mean if Eva Air flew to Bangkok from here it would do well in fact EK probably have lots of people on the BHX 777 connect to a BKK A380. Based on what I figured out Airlines have to do all this maths I ay great at it and ay an expert but I do play Airlines Manager on my phone I have a pretty large Airline with 11 hubs, 508 routes 507 of which are active 1 is a new one awaiting the delivery of two new aircraft being Boeing 737-800's to start a route from Birmingham to Stockholm I have 706/708 aircraft and make a fortune. But let's factor in costs Say I make £700 Mil Turnover a Day let's factor in Flight Costs normally let's say about £200 Mil the game has Dollars so Idk that pays for Fuel, Ancillary revune ie Food, Entertainment, Staff Costs and stuff like that all included in flight costs. Then there is Tax both Airport Tax so mostly British Airport Tax and Oversees Terrority Tax. All airports have different levels of tax let's assume Britain has 5% and US as I have JFK has 4% so BHX charges me 5% I fly 5 times a day to JFK 3 Widebodies carrying about 321 Passengers plus Cargo 787-10, A359 and 772 and then a 752 and A321-NEO-LR so there's that plus different Fuel Prices the 787 might burn 1.2 Tonnes of Fuel per Passengers whereas the 752 might burn 2.7 Tonnes Per Passenger. So anyway let's move to real life EWR was the best US route on there UA are the only Airline who serve there Transatlantic so let's say UA were to launch a route from BHX to EWR on a 767-300ER that can 275 Passengers say. United charge say £500 for Economy Passengers so let's say £500 for 210 Economy Passengers is £105,000 Profit then say they charge £1,200 for Bussiness Class say they can Seats 30 that is £36,000 then say 15 First Class pay £3,000 that is £4,500 add in Cargo let's say £60,000 that is a total of £206,000. Now of that £206,000 4% goes to Newark as Tax that is £82,400. It takes of now a 767 say uses 2.5 Tonnes of Fuel per Passenger to fly 3,380 Miles between EWR and BHX which costs Say £5,000 2.5 × 275 is 687.8 Tonnes of Fuel at £60 so say they load 750 Tonnes of Fuel on board that is about £15,000 so deducting £206,000 from £82,400 leaves United with £123,600 of Profit then take of BHX's 5% of Tax leaves United with £61,800 Profit take off say another £15K in Fuel and that is about £31,800 Profit not including paying for Staff or Costs of Food and other stuff including Cleaners, Ground Staff. Basically there is no profit I used a 767 based on it being able to take the most Passengers. So basically just leave the Airlines alone Based on what I have figured out It ay worth United flying here so just don't ring them Unless you have any idea how costs work and do research into how people would fly BHX to Say Bahrain or Newark or Boston the Airport should be doing that anyway.

Unless you are a paying subscriber, you are limited to 10 mins after making your post, to edit it.
As for all the references to costs, don't forget that Airlines Manager is a game and reality may be quite different. For example, each airline will negotiate with an airport to obtain the most favourable charges such as landing and handling fees. Likewise fuel price hedging with fuel suppliers. Does Airline Manager allow you to make these negotiations?
The idea of loading 750 Tonnes of fuel onto a B767 is impossible. The max take off weight of a B767 is about 180 Tonnes. Even the A380's maximum is 560 Tonnes. That's passengers, fuel, cargo and the weight of the aircraft itself. Looking online, I've found figures of around 4.6 Tonnes of fuel per hour for a B767 on a long haul flight. this equates to approx 37 Tonnes total for an 8 hour flight. For 275 pax, this would be 0.13 Tonnes per passenger.

Kevin

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Oh yeah it does doesn't it that affect my maths below that explaining to Kayjay why he shouldn't ring the airlines

KJAY has every right to phone the airlines if they so desire. Please stop telling them that they shouldn't do it.

Kevin

 

[Matty_85]

I think you will definitely see some of these routes return including JFK & Toronto (possibly with Hans if it all goes to plan).

The figures are interesting but don’t tell us LF, aircraft used etc so don’t think anyone can be saying if they were profitable or not. UA wouldn’t have stuck around for 20 years & Monarch wouldn’t have been planning double daily JFK if there wasn’t demand or profitability in it.

Just need the right airlines to partner with. I feel BHX has good momentum with new routes & clearly they are building new relationships with airlines. My only wish is we hear something regarding the terminal refurb!

 

[A400]

And Again not moaning just saying I have done the Maths you might want to fly from Birmingham to Hong Kong the route statistics might not back up Cathay to fly here. You might have interest go phone them up but I highly doubt there is much profit my example used a full flight.

Now I see what your saying but Kayjay also shared a number of an airline on a Public forum. Also I am a fan of West Bromwich Albion we need a Striker If I phoned say Ivan Toney of Brentford to join us as I wanted him to 1 it looks bad on Albion for not phoning him 2 maybe he doesn't want to join Albion and we don't want him maybe they could be discussing things and me phoning could affect that.

I was just using Cathay Pacific as an example to make a point to my post I never said I wanted CX to come (even though I’m sure it would be nice and welcome) I’ve done similar things just by using Twitter to see if any airlines have plans to operate out of my local. I don’t see the issue with it.

I’m not understanding your comparison to football here. It’s totally different. I think at end of the day you should leave K-jay and others to do as they please as they just want to see the best for their local. And I’m sure you do aswell.

Regards

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Now I see what your saying but Kayjay also shared a number of an airline on a Public forum.

I don't see any problem with that. As an example, I typed 'Cathay Pacific UK' into a search engine. I went straight to the Cathay Pacific UK website, scrolled down to 'Contact Us' and found their phone number listed. It's freely available on the internet. They are happy for people to contact them. You can't run a business if you hide your contact details.
Posting the private number of an individual, however would be a different matter.

Kevin

 

[RichL]

Don't forget that the figures Ian has quoted are total passenger numbers for the route. That means both outbound and inbound. Therefore any daily figure that you have obtained by dividing by 365 then needs to be divided by 2. So for example the Chicago service would have averaged 156.4 passengers per flight. This assumes that all flights operated and on a daily basis.

Kevin

If that was on a 757 then 156 a day is bloody good considering there is / were 169 seats available and some of those would have been blocked off for crew etc.

I'm prepared to bet my life savings that all the flights a day out of 'other' airports in the UK to ORD don't go out 100% full either.

 

[IanFarquharson]

United LF were often over 90%

If that was on a 757 then 156 a day is bloody good considering there is / were 169 seats available and some of those would have been blocked off for crew etc.

I'm prepared to bet my life savings that all the flights a day out of 'other' airports in the UK to ORD don't go out 100% full either.

 

[DarloPlaneBoy]

Unless you are a paying subscriber, you are limited to 10 mins after making your post, to edit it.
As for all the references to costs, don't forget that Airlines Manager is a game and reality may be quite different. For example, each airline will negotiate with an airport to obtain the most favourable charges such as landing and handling fees. Likewise fuel price hedging with fuel suppliers. Does Airline Manager allow you to make these negotiations?
The idea of loading 750 Tonnes of fuel onto a B767 is impossible. The max take off weight of a B767 is about 180 Tonnes. Even the A380's maximum is 560 Tonnes. That's passengers, fuel, cargo and the weight of the aircraft itself. Looking online, I've found figures of around 4.6 Tonnes of fuel per hour for a B767 on a long haul flight. this equates to approx 37 Tonnes total for an 8 hour flight. For 275 pax, this would be 0.13 Tonnes per passenger.

Kevin

No And I didn't use the games figures I was giving a rough guess if that's way things worked basically saying United couldn't make a Profit on the route or a miniscule one. I do believe you can get Tax Cuts on AM but active for certain time though BHX tax is cheaper than LHR Tax.

 

[Ryan Kirkpatrick]

niceee
New York EWR - best year was 172,587 in 2005
New York JFK - best year was 69,526 in 2016
and people keep saying BHX has no need for a route to New York go LHR or MAN. I am sure the demand is stronger now. I would love to see United to come back maybe one day still betting on Jetblue for New York JFK to BHX.

 

[Coathanger16]

and people keep saying BHX has no need for a route to New York go LHR or MAN.

I don't think anyone has said there is no need for the route, just that with LHR and MAN so close by, and with so many flights available from LHR, it's difficult to attract people to use a service from BHX.

No doubt there is the demand given the right airline, with the right aircraft and the right connections available.

Personally I don't think JetBlue will come looking anytime soon. For now, they're only flying 3 daily TATL flights into LHR & LGW. There's plenty of other destinations in Europe and the British Isles they'll look to first before BHX.

Out of the 41 airports in Europe busier than BHX, United serves 22 from Newark (the most of any US Carrier) and 7 that aren't as busy as BHX. A further 5 are airports serving a city where United serves another airport (e.g. United flies to LHR but not LGW), and a further 8 airports have flights to EWR/JFK with other airlines.

This leaves just 6 cities in Europe with airports busier than BHX without a connection to NYC:

Dusseldorf
Malaga
Hamburg
Alicante
Bucharest
Stuttgart

Once United get their A321XLR, BHX should be fairly high on their list of places to serve with it.

 

[KJAY 786]

Airlines are happy with contacting them - ELAL the lady kindly told me that they have no plans for Stansted now and Birmingham is a excellent route they will analyse it next year and market the midlands in full - she was a airline manager in ELAL London kindness they also were most pleased having a nice telephone call from potential passengers so pleasant - airlines need encouragement to start Birmingham- also telephoned and wrote to Virgin Atlantic who are pleased that they are being recognised for new potential routes airlines like kind phone calls and if you lucky you receive some airline gifts in the post so overall it a way airlines gain potential consumers and realise how important are new routes - Please accept my apologies if I have upset anyone on the forum -

 

[DarloPlaneBoy]

Airlines are happy with contacting them - ELAL the lady kindly told me that they have no plans for Stansted now and Birmingham is a excellent route they will analyse it next year and market the midlands in full - she was a airline manager in ELAL London kindness they also were most pleased having a nice telephone call from potential passengers so pleasant - airlines need encouragement to start Birmingham- also telephoned and wrote to Virgin Atlantic who are pleased that they are being recognised for new potential routes airlines like kind phone calls and if you lucky you receive some airline gifts in the post so overall it a way airlines gain potential consumers and realise how important are new routes - Please accept my apologies if I have upset anyone on the forum -

Maybe in hindsight I was annoyed at why you feel the need to Phone Airlines and ask them. I was looking It as being slightly stupid but I guess they have numbers on the Internet for reasons. No offence Virgin are never coming to Birmingham I believe it's stated on here whilst Virgin have Manchester and London Heathrow they will not serve BHX they might have said but based on stuff on here they won't come here. Jet2 or TUI might be good to ring ask if they could Provide Seasonal service to JFK or ask them mainly TUI for service daily all year round to Orlando. I think my issue was your phoning Airlines and you don't need to and you don't know they might be looking at Birmingham and you phoning rather than the Airport looks a bit rubbish. But I was wrong in hindsight you ay hurting anyone it ay illegal maybe apply for a Job at Birmingham your doing work that someone at BHX should be doing. Or potentially ask us all on here and if you don't get enough Intrest then don't bother If you do phone and them say me and 100 othe people that I know of what you say American to fly Daily All Year round to JFK from Birmingham we realise it didn't work out before but this time the people of Birmingham want to fly to JFK and if you fly here you will get all the passengers. Maybe do some figures and then present it to them. If you do them get them to come then hats off. I think if you polled people then you could get a better idea of who to phone how many and what schedule. If you want help creating that board or anything Message me. I apologise for going of at you. Like I said if it ay hurting anyone carry on I guess. Tip though if an Airline gives you information ie say Flybe on a new route to Birmingham don't share it Cus it might not happen or if they give you Something about there Bussiness plans maybe don't share that I don't think any Bussiness would be happy with you sharing it to potential rivals or competors. Not that any of us are I think but you never know.