Route Development & Rumours

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

When I'm at my in laws driving around Sheffield/Rotherham I see loads of billboards advertising flights from EMA, Manchester Airport have on more than one occasion had pull outs in the Solihull Times and have run radio ads on local stations.

I'm surprised that BHX doesn't make more of its potential outer catchment in the Bristol area. BHX features routes that BRS cannot, both for commercial and operational reasons, and in truth it's only an hour along the M5 from a lot of Greater Bristol. The area's residents seem to have a LHR default setting in most cases when a little ingenuity in publicising its wares might well attract a decent little catch for BHX from the West Country.

I can never remember seeing any advertising for BHX in the Bristol area, not even in the free newspapers.

I've used BHX for long haul and would do so again if the EK fares weren't out of kilter compared with the London airports. I shall certainly be looking at BHX to see if the fare thing has changed when I start looking to book our next long haul trip that will probably be in early 2015.

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

And also i know has been said many times, but BHX needs to stop putting all its efforts into Long haul and get some crucial european cities back on the boards, Madrid, Prague, Lisbon anybody ????????????

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Just came across this great little tool (Or to me, a game)that a certain other forumer told us about on another BHX webpage, its great. I love it.

You can play around with it and find out exactly if a certain route could be viable, eg BHX-Berlin for example.



http://caademo.aviationanalytics.com/Qv ... ymous=true

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

And also i know has been said many times, but BHX needs to stop putting all its efforts into Long haul and get some crucial european cities back on the boards, Madrid, Prague, Lisbon anybody ????????????

The fact they've spent so much time trying to get long haul into BHX with little success certainly suggests they are going wrong in one field or another but don't exactly know where.

This runway extension has been anticipated for decades. No big fanfare has been made as a result of it opening, and all we get after all this time is three charter flights. They could have used it to launch new routes that could have been done anyway. The European services in particular. They probably have their sights set on the East Coast of the US - at least try and sustain a few services to the west coast first.

I don't know if there's anything really exciting to happen at BHX over the rest of the year. I hope there is but I don't see it at the moment.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I'm surprised that BHX doesn't make more of its potential outer catchment in the Bristol area. BHX features routes that BRS cannot, both for commercial and operational reasons, and in truth it's only an hour along the M5 from a lot of Greater Bristol. The area's residents seem to have a LHR default setting in most cases when a little ingenuity in publicising its wares might well attract a decent little catch for BHX from the West Country.

I can never remember seeing any advertising for BHX in the Bristol area, not even in the free newspapers.

I've used BHX for long haul and would do so again if the EK fares weren't out of kilter compared with the London airports. I shall certainly be looking at BHX to see if the fare thing has changed when I start looking to book our next long haul trip that will probably be in early 2015.

I totally agree, the Bristol region and into South Wales should be a prime target for BHX's long haul connections, especially as the Emirates business class complimentary chauffer drive service from BHX extends beyond the usual 70 mile radius to include Bristol (BS) postcodes.

The area's residents seem to have a LHR default setting in most cases...

That seems to be the case for many that live within just a few miles from BHX, it's amazing how many people are genuinely surprised when they are told there are direct flights to the likes of New York, Dubai, Delhi etc... "I thought I had to go to London to fly there" is the usual reply.

A little bit of targeted advertising could do wonders.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

BHX (along with MAN and LBA) has now been totally removed from the Vueling website.

 

[Brum X]

Re: Vueling

BHX doesnt do One World anyway, thought it was strange.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

So there's no Vueling after all?

I wonder if Airblue would ever return? Then again, if they'd return to MAN they'd return here I'd assume. PIA need some competition in some shape or form as they seem to have stagnated.

Aside from the short-haul flights which BHX of course needs, if they are looking at securing US links, they should try and secure a few to the West Coast at first. We don't even have a daily year-round service to the West Coast yet. Even if it is a service via BHX.

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Vueling is still happening from Manchester, just been removed from the public site while the full schedule upload is taking place. Not sure what's happening with BHX, as that was mainly in the 'keep up to date with news' section.

I wonder if Airblue would ever return? Then again, if they'd return to MAN they'd return here I'd assume

Im not so sure if they would automatically return to BHX. Im not sure what happened, but Im convinced BHX had a detrimental affect on MAN, as they plodded on with MAN quite happily for over 8 years, and as soon as BHX opened, it all went to pot?! I think their fingers have been burnt now, so a return to the UK may well be down the list of priorities.

if they are looking at securing US links, they should try and secure a few to the West Coast at first. We don't even have a daily year-round service to the West Coast yet

I think you are getting your coasts mixed up. West coast is LAX/SFO/SEA/SAN. East coast is EWR/BOS/JFK. Southern US is ATL/CLT/MIA/MCO/IAH/DFW and mid-west USA is ORD/DTW/DEN etc.

 

[Hassaan]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I think you are getting your coasts mixed up. West coast is LAX/SFO/SEA/SAN. East coast is EWR/BOS/JFK. Southern US is ATL/CLT/MIA/MCO/IAH/DFW and mid-west USA is ORD/DTW/DEN etc.

Oops. :blush:

Yes, the East Coast is what I meant in that post.

Im not so sure if they would automatically return to BHX. Im not sure what happened, but Im convinced BHX had a detrimental affect on MAN, as they plodded on with MAN quite happily for over 8 years, and as soon as BHX opened, it all went to pot?! I think their fingers have been burnt now, so a return to the UK may well be down the list of priorities.

The BHX service maybe taking away passengers from MAN? It can't have been the reason for their demise though. As you say it probably won't be high up on the list of priorities.

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

The BHX service maybe taking away passengers from MAN? It can't have been the reason for their demise though.

Im not sure.
Like I say, the MAN route had survived for 8 years, even with a stop en route. The A340-300 was also doing quite well, yes, the odd 'bad delay' for tech reasons, but, I do find it too much of a co-incidence that as soon as BHX opened, the whole UK operation went to pot.

I think UK-Pakistan is a market that PIA will have on its own now (direct I mean, as obviously there are the 1-stop options).

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I'm not sure opening a BHX route was the sole reason Air Blue are in the situation they are in now, if Birmingham was the only fly in the ointment surely they'd have just dropped it and expanded more at MAN, but with 100% loads both above and below and prices not too dissimilar to MAN I think for the short time it ran BHX did OK. My opinion is the A340-300's were a huge mistake, they must have cost an absolute fortune to run, especially when there are no premium seats sold, and if you believe what's written it seems Air Blue were in a very bad financial way before the BHX route even started. It's a shame they couldn't have got hold of a couple of A330's which may have been more suitable with the -200 series having only slightly less cargo capacity than the A343 and the -300 series seeing almost the same. I guess only the people at Air Blue will know for sure but even if they did want to come back I'm not so sure BHX would welcome them, there are rumours that there are still some unpaid bills to be settled.


As for the U.S. just look to the failed trip to Chicago and the shambles that was Biman and you'll get your answer.

 

[Brum X]

Air Transat 2015

Apparently they are increasing capacity from BHX next year, this is good news and shows that the flight to Toronto is popular.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Canadian Affair sell the seats like hot cakes, I think it was last year that the A310 was upgraded to an A330 within a matter of weeks of going on sale. It's a small increase but definitely a welcome one, Air Transat have said BHX is too expensive for any expansion but with the right deal in place I don't see why we couldn't see another YYZ and a weekly YVR, are BHX prepared to offer it???

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Ray (or anyone). Given that BHX has spent a lot of money extending the runway why does the management/owners still seem reluctant to do realistic deals with airlines that would bring a lot to the BHX party?

From an outsider's perspective, reading posts on this forum and on other forums, it seems they are reluctant to speculate in order to accumulate new services, some of which they would desperately want.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

That's the million dollar question right there! It almost seems a ready made excuse these days for the stagnation of BHX but it's been cited as a reason too many times for it not to play at least some part. If you look at the published prices, which will most likely be at least a starting point for negotiations, then it appears BHX is more than double the cost of MAN so even with a half price discount BHX is still more pricey than the MAN top end and you can bet they will offer a discount (I've seen articles that suggest MAN is the second cheapest in Europe whereas BHX is the fourth most expensive in the world), it's a no brainer.

A small part of me hopes that over the last few years BHX have been secretly swelling the coffers to pay for the recent infrastructure and are now in a position to be very competitive when it comes to negotiations for new routes, growth stimulates growth (as seen in the rise of Turkmenistan loads since AI arrived) and one or two strategically placed new routes could lead to more coming to fruition, as you say speculate to accumulate. Sadly though if you regularly read press releases from BHX it doesn't appear to be the case, we seem to be in a situation where BHX try for a route, fail, then spit their dummy out to the press saying how everyone under the sun is desperate for the route but the big, bad airline refuses to start it. Look at the recent trip to reinstate the Chicago link, we had headlines from the Chamber of Commerce, the Mayors, local business leaders, you name it, all so desperate for the link, I'd bet all the airline wanted was a solid business case and a mutually beneficial deal re: airport charges and it would have been done. Beijing looks to be going the same way. We've also had numerous releases stating the government should do this, the government should do that! I'm all for the UK becoming less London centric and greater powers being devolved to the regions but I don't see it as central governments responsibility to get BHX a Chicago link, a Beijing service or increased capacity to Florida, that's what a route development team are supposedly for. I've said before BHX appears to be able to talk the talk very well but struggles when it comes to walking the walk, actions speak louder than words and there is no better time than now.

As for why, BHX makes money and whilst that's the case why should things change? Check out the link below.

Birmingham Airport bosses' pay soars on back of cost cutting

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Hi there ray, i couldn't agree with you anymore than what you have just said 100%, i recently sent an email a few weeks ago to kehoe regarding birmingham airports landing charges, i asked him why if Manchester can charge £1,848.00 for any size of aircraft landing and £5.50 for summer & £6.50 for winter passengers landing or take off, he replied back some 10 days later. He was intrigued to know why i was asking these sort of questions and also stated that Birmingham Airports landing fee for any aircraft landing of taking off at Birmingham would not be a single fee like Manchester charges for any aircraft that lands, but it would purely be subject to what size the aircraft was and what its arrangements were depending on its commercial loading agreements in place.So it just goes to show you ray, that if United Airlines wanted to expand its routes further across the United States, it would find it very difficult to convince to airport in lowering its fees for beneficial business reasons as the airport would not be interested at all.It would also be the case for Emirates wanting to expand further across Australia , and also Air New Zealand to New Zealand. Put it another way ray, if hes not going to do any deals with Jet2 or Easyjet the budget airlines golden opportunity that wanted to have a base at birmingham, then hes only going to do it for who he wants to. Just going back to when the runway extension actually opened on 26th or 27th May this year, kehoe and his team had a golden opportunity to, get in any mainstream news in like BBC or Sky and seize the opportunity nationally and internationally and tell everyone, but no, he waits some 7 weeks later to announce it with the socalled arrival of Southern China Airlines, only for 3 departures. What a waisted opportunity....andyc

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Thank you both, Ray and andrew for your responses.

Whilst BHX is obviously a business with a duty on its directors and officers to do their best in the interests of their shareholders, it does seem that they tend to go for the safe option. In a way it's understandable and some cynics (and others) would say they have their eye on personal productivity payments.

But airports also have an immensely important part to play in the economic health and growth of the regions they serve and it does seem that BHX is not prepared to recognise this seriously (despite the fine words of its CEO). No-one would expect the airport management to go forward in a gung ho fashion trying to snare any airline and route that will come along so long as it (the airline) has to pay very little for the privilege, but targeted routes that would not only potentially bring revenue to the airport (even if not immediately) and value to the region might be thought to be a desirable goal.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Totally agree, if BHX is to grow in any meaningful way then a couple of calculated risks are going to need to be taken. We're coming out of recession so with growth on the horizon now seems the perfect time to start laying the groundwork, but, given what the world has been through in the last few years I think airlines will be (rightfully) a lot more cautious than they may have been pre-recession, is it now time for BHX to bring their pricing structure into the 21st century?

Look at what has happened up at MAN in recent times, after such a large investment in the region Etihad wanted to be top dog, Emirates obviously fought back and with Qatar also flexing their muscles we saw a massive amount of expansion in a relatively short space of time. Success breeds success and recently we've seen the likes of Saudia, Egyptair, Flynas etc join the party, some worked out, some didn't but at least they tried. There looks to be a similar situation now brewing in Scotland with Etihad joining Qatar at EDI and I'd be very surprised if there wasn't some sort of reaction from EK at GLA. You just get the impression that things are all to 'comfortable' at BHX, Emirates going east and United going west have the vast majority of bases covered and with there being a virtual monopoly BHX sees some eye watering fares at times, no doubt covering the seemingly higher cost base. Back in 2005 Gulf Air announced it was to start a Bahrain service from BHX, almost immediately Emirates introduced their second daily flight and Gulf Air were never heard of again, you have to wonder if the addition of Qatar now, even at say 4x weekly, would be enough to force Emirates hand over a third daily flight? With the right package in place, the right yield management and a good amount of local and semi national advertising I don't see how both couldn't coexist and it would surely help the pax numbers rise.

As for Europe, I'm at a loss as to where the airport is heading. I could see TAP arriving in the next year or two, possibly Finnair but other than that there appears to be very little movement. Monarch saw some big expansion out of BHX a couple of years ago, Mr Kehoe said in an interview that a 'fantastic deal' was done with Monarch with regards to the MAEL hangar, did that deal also extend to ZB because the much rumoured 10th base unit is still yet to arrive? Before that Ryanair expanded in a blaze of glory promising over 100 routes within five years, given the nature of Ryanair one would assume a deal was done, low and behold a couple of years later Ryanair have now stagnated at four based with not much more than the sun routes and Eastern European cities. Did the deal run out and they reverted back to the 'rack rate'? Flybe have recently expanded out of BHX, has a deal been done with them, if so what happens when it runs out and they're back to 'rack rate', will all the routes be dropped? It's been discussed at length that BHX has some large holes in the European network with the likes of Madrid, Lisbon, Budapest, Warsaw, Prague and soon to be Berlin all unserved, there is also extra capacity on the core sun routes desperately needed with EMA outdoing BHX every month for the last year or two. Where will this come from? We may see the odd extra flights from Monarch to the sun routes, Ryanair appear stagnant, Vueling could potentially offer a couple of flights to the likes of Malaga but most hope seems to be in the hands of Flybe who have been through a rough patch and having just done such a large round of expansion I can't see much more from BHX until they have consolidated what they have now, there also may be plans for expansion at other bases. To me Easyjet or Jet2 could slot in nicely with plenty of extra capacity on the core sun routes in the summer and winter sun and ski destinations in the winter, add a couple of weekly rotations to unserved European cities and watch the pax numbers rise. They're both staying away from BHX for a reason though.

We've also got a massively underserved long haul IT market with Florida in particular woefully under capacity and the likes of a seasonal Dominican Republic, Cuba and Las Vegas etc. all missing.

Anyway I've had enough of a moan for one day so I'll leave it there :shout:

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

As for Europe, I'm at a loss as to where the airport is heading. I could see TAP arriving in the next year or two, possibly Finnair but other than that there appears to be very little movement

Ive always said, that network wise, these 2 airlines would be a good fit for BHX, but, its getting on now that I am worried about BHX's inability to attract these carriers. TAP has, for the past 3 years, announced a raft of new routes each year. Has BHX appeared in any 3? No. TAP seem to be getting a bit comfortable at MAN, going 11 weekly this winter instead of 7 weekly. Could this mean they view BHX as 'covered' from MAN and LHR? The way EDI is going, I would now be less than surprised if TAP want to go after a 'new' market in EDI, rather than dilute 2 markets they already serve.

As for Finnair, I don't recall seeing much European expansion in the past few years, so wonder if there could actually be any movement from them? Again, much needed route, not just for Helsinki, but, to 'prove' the China/Far East market using the much proclaimed 'quickest way to Asia' hub.

Did the deal run out and they reverted back to the 'rack rate'? Flybe have recently expanded out of BHX, has a deal been done with them, if so what happens when it runs out and they're back to 'rack rate', will all the routes be dropped?

Actually a very very good point. It does make you wonder if all those applauding BHX should not be slightly cautious that history could very well, repeat itself.