Route Development & Rumours

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Disappointing stuff today from Flybe and once again route retention remains a big issue at BHX with 6 multiple frequeny routes dropped and two single weekly routes added. Passenger numbers are only going to grow when new capacity is ADDED to what is already there, not when it is simply SHIFTED from one place to another!

What struck me most though is not the reductions but that I've heard from several people that Alicante, Palma and Florence suffered from operational issues on the 175 and with the 195 not in their long term plans they were dropped. From BHX Florence is 846 miles, Alicante 981 miles and Palma 915m, so that means Madrid at 1011 miles, Lisbon at 1014 miles, Budapest at 981 miles and Warsaw at 957 cannot be an option for them, although Prague at 709 miles may be doable.

Could it be that Flybe aren't quite the knight in shining armour we all hoped they would be? They do the core business routes of France, Germany and those closer to home very well and there will always be a market for that but to get real growth and regain some of the key destinations we've missed for so long we may have to look elsewhere. The question is who?

Ryanair would be the obvious option. They've been in and out of love with BHX many times over the years but we don't seem to be a favourite of theirs at the moment with more cuts next year and only the very basics of destinations remaining. They can also be very volatile leading to routes coming and going with alarming regularity which is not what we need.

Easyjet would be perfect. BHX and MAN had their chance and both said no, we're better than that. It's turned out to be a very, very bad decision for BHX as, unlike MAN, they haven't been able to tempt them back and with LTN just down the road and big plans for BRS I can't see it.

Monarch are reducing their offer and Jet2 were apparently interested but quickly got cold feet.

I'm at a loss but if BHX is to really push on and see some serious growth then I think it needs one of them.

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

The big issue regarding Flybe I that the BHX expansion came on the bank of a major restructuring process, and, a process they seem to have not learnt diddly squat from (now opening several random bases again and random routes).

BHX NEEDS easyjet.

Easyjet offer a steady, progressive expansion that would benefit BHX no end. Look at MAN. They have not been the fastest of expanders, but, out of all the routes they have run from MAN, only a very few have been cut.

Ryanair are a quick fix 'try here, oh no, wait, here, oh, actually here' type airline.

Jet2 seem entrenched at EMA, and now Monarch, even with new backing, look shaky. I expected huge things from Monarch on the back of the BHX hangar, but, financial problems precluded their chance to shine.

I do think BHX need to diversify, as in the past, even recent past, BHX have been too reliant on one horse. They have started with AA, Vueling and Icelandic and Turkish expansion, that way, the bets are spread, so to speak.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

BHX NEEDS easyjet.

Easyjet offer a steady, progressive expansion that would benefit BHX no end. Look at MAN. They have not been the fastest of expanders, but, out of all the routes they have run from MAN, only a very few have been cut.

It's not important to get Easyjet in, it's imperative. They are the missing piece of the puzzle and careful, calculated expansion ON TOP of what's already on offer is exactly what BHX needs to get that bit of growth each year.

For far too long airlines have added a route, then taken it away and replaced it with another, then taken that away and replaced with another....... Sadly I think BHX has missed the boat and we're in the middle of a triangle of bases (LTN, BRS & MAN) that are ever expanding and probably see most of the Greater Birmingham area as within their catchment area. I know many people who use LTN & BRS as the prices are cheaper and/or the destinations aren't available from BHX.

I do think BHX need to diversify, as in the past, even recent past, BHX have been too reliant on one horse. They have started with AA, Vueling and Icelandic and Turkish expansion, that way, the bets are spread, so to speak.

Mr Kehoe himself has said in an interview "in the past we've always seemed to back the wrong airline"! It's always been an issue, BA, Bmibaby, My Travel Lite, Ryanair, Monarch, Flybe, the eggs always seem to be in one basket and when that company shifts focus elsewhere (which happens) BHX suffers. Vueling is definitely a start but based on past history I wouldn't put money on them and AA still being around in 2016.

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

The AA route is now seasonal, so, its return in 2016 is vital.

BHX is between a rock and a hard place with based aircraft.

Based airlines can cut several routes at once (look at Flybe today), whereas, based aircraft bring more employment than away based flights.

However, away based flights means if a route gets chopped, its just that route.

AA and Vueling will be the ones to watch. If they return in 2016, BHX should find it on a better track.

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

The AA route is now seasonal, so, its return in 2016 is vital.

BHX is between a rock and a hard place with based aircraft.

Based airlines can cut several routes at once (look at Flybe today), whereas, based aircraft bring more employment than away based flights.

However, away based flights means if a route gets chopped, its just that route.

AA and Vueling will be the ones to watch. If they return in 2016, BHX should find it on a better track.

Has AA being seasonal been confirmed ????

 

[User0001]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I'm not 100% on AA seasonal, but, the talk of the office is that it always supposed to be seasonal, but then year round made all the press statements.

From Oct 7th-21st, the Wednesday flight stop, then, from the 26th Oct, the Tue and Thu flight stop.

No AA routes at all are bookable past 5th Nov, following the 330 day in advance rule, so, its a case of wait and see.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Brum X mentioned in another thread that I don't seem happy today. I get very frustrated with BHX as for as long as I can remember they seem to take one step forwards then two steps back, just when you think they have turned a corner and are really pushing on something comes back and bites you in the backside.

I do try hard to take every positive but in the back of my mind I'm always thinking 'what bad is going to happen now' and invariably something does. Today has annoyed me as yet again BHX seem to have backed an airline with major expansion and less than a year later a big chunk of it is cut. I've seen it so many times before. I do try and be as objective as I can, and maybe my expectations are a little too high, but all I want is the best for BHX and for that corner to be turned once and for all.

Maybe my New Years resolution will be to forget the negatives and only focus on the positives

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I'm not 100% on AA seasonal, but, the talk of the office is that it always supposed to be seasonal, but then year round made all the press statements.

From Oct 7th-21st, the Wednesday flight stop, then, from the 26th Oct, the Tue and Thu flight stop.

No AA routes at all are bookable past 5th Nov, following the 330 day in advance rule, so, its a case of wait and see.

A guy from AA on facebook confirmed to me that it was year round but then i suppose they could go a bit like United and only operate 4/5 days of the week in winter and would still officially be year round.

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Brum X mentioned in another thread that I don't seem happy today. I get very frustrated with BHX as for as long as I can remember they seem to take one step forwards then two steps back, just when you think they have turned a corner and are really pushing on something comes back and bites you in the backside.

I do try hard to take every positive but in the back of my mind I'm always thinking 'what bad is going to happen now' and invariably something does. Today has annoyed me as yet again BHX seem to have backed an airline with major expansion and less than a year later a big chunk of it is cut. I've seen it so many times before. I do try and be as objective as I can, and maybe my expectations are a little too high, but all I want is the best for BHX and for that corner to be turned once and for all.

Maybe my New Years resolution will be to forget the negatives and only focus on the positives

I totally understand where you are coming from, but i think we have all got abit "greedy" if im being honest recently after the good news we have had. And yes im thinking of the "positives" more than the negatvies. Yes we have less Flybe and Monarch, but we have more Turkish, our big European airlines putting bigger aircarft on, AA are back at least for Summer 2015, winter TBA ??????, Air iNDIA are daily, Vuelling, Icelandair and we still have some increase from Thomson and Thomas Cook, so to me and this is still the case, the positives are more than the negatives so for that reason BHX has made progression compared to 2014. If it has finally turned a corner wont be really known until 2015 passengers figures have been confirmed and the like of AA and Vuelling and indeed Icelandair return in 2016. The likes of Flybe unfortunately as much as i like them and what they contribute to BHX will continue to introduce and cut flights unless they sort they fleet out.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

...but we have more Turkish, our big European airlines putting bigger aircarft on, AA are back at least for Summer 2015, winter TBA ??????, Air iNDIA are daily, Vuelling, Icelandair and we still have some increase from Thomson and Thomas Cook, so to me and this is still the case, the positives are more than the negatives so for that reason BHX has made progression compared to 2014. If it has finally turned a corner wont be really known until 2015 passengers figures have been confirmed and the like of AA and Vuelling and indeed Icelandair return in 2016. The likes of Flybe unfortunately as much as i like them and what they contribute to BHX will continue to introduce and cut flights unless they sort they fleet out.

Some good points and this time last year we'd have snapped an arm off for that. The key is will the new arrivals still be around in 2016.

Although we're lucky in that we have a good selection of carriers I think BHX is ripe for someone to open a base and grow it into something quite spectacular, rather than a bit added here and a little taken away there with no real growth such as we see now. This is Easyjet's destination list for BRS, obviously not all would be viable as there would be clashes with existing competition but I'd kill for a base like this at BHX.

Alicante (ALC)
Amsterdam (AMS)
Barcelona (BCN)
Belfast Intl (BFS)
Berlin Schoenefeld (SXF)
Bodrum (BJV)
Bordeaux (BOD)
Catania (Sicily) (CTA)
Copenhagen (CPH)
Corfu (CFU)
Crete (Heraklion) (HER)
Cyprus (Paphos) (PFO)
Dalaman (DLM)
Edinburgh (EDI)
Faro (FAO)
Fuerteventura (FUE)
Geneva (GVA)
Gibraltar (GIB)
Glasgow (GLA)
Grenoble (GNB)
Ibiza (IBZ)
Innsbruck (INN)
Inverness (INV)
Krakow (KRK)
La Rochelle (LRH)
Lanzarote Arrecife (ACE)
Lisbon (LIS)
Lyon (LYS)
Madeira Funchal (FNC)
Madrid (MAD)
Majorca - Palma (PMI)
Malaga (AGP)
Marrakech (RAK)
Marseille (Provence) (MRS)
Menorca Mahon (MAH)
Murcia (MJV)
Naples (NAP)
Newcastle (NCL)
Nice (NCE)
Olbia (Sardinia) (OLB)
Paris CDG (CDG)
Pisa (Tuscany) (PSA)
Porto (OPO)
Prague (PRG)
Reykjavik (Keflavik) (KEF)
Rome Fiumicino (FCO)
Salzburg (SZG)
Split (SPU)
Tenerife South (TFS)
Toulouse (TLS)

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Well yesterday I was a little annoyed, today I am livid!

Twelve months ago we had a blaze of glory as Flybe rode into town on their white horse, a year later and we've seen what appears to be a devastating blow to BHX. Twelve routes cut in the space of two days leaving an already embarasingly thin European offer in tatters. As it stands BHX will have no flights to Madrid, Lisbon, Prague, Warsaw, Budapest, Oslo, Cologne, Toulouse, Porto, Knock, Waterford, Derry and Shannon! Hannover has been slashed to once daily along with Hamburg which now only has Germanwings left on the route, who themselves are restructuring!

If I was in the BHX route development team I would be hanging my head right now as this is a massive embarrassment and all the good work with Vueling, AA, Icelandair and Turkish has been undone! Time to forget long haul and dreams of routes to the Far East, this now MUST be number one priority!!! I really, really hope they have something up their sleeve but this is BHX we're talking about and we've been here many times before.

Ryanair aren't interested and have cut flights. Monarch have their own problems and until they are sorted just let them get on with it and Flybe have now proven that when it comes to route planning they don't know their arse from their elbow and have learned absolutely nothing from past experience. There is nobody left to annoy anymore.

The time has come when Easyjet MUST be bought in, no if's or but's, they are a business and if the offer is right they should take it. BHX HAVE to make it happen! There can be no more excuses!

A very, very sad day for BHX and suddenly 10mppa looks less and less assured :s_sad

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm my positive outlook is slowly becoming negative again.

 

[Brummiegem]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I absolutely agree with both Ray and BrumX.
Asfar as Europe is concerned to say BHX is under served is an understatement.
Now is the time for the route development team to get their fingers out or get a new team in.
I don't think this is an over reaction as we all know we have been crying out for a number of Euro routes for a long time.Youonly need to look at some of the routes we have had and then lost for one reason or other,Prague,Madrid,Oslo,Stockholm,Budapest,all capital cities and good city break destinations.If we still had 2/3 of these then things would not look quite so bad,but I'm afraid until we can get good airlines on these important routes BHX will remain nothing more than a secondary airport with a few long haul routes.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm my positive outlook is slowly becoming negative again.

This is why I can never get excited about the happenings at BHX. If even you're feeling negative things must be bad

I absolutely agree with both Ray and BrumX.
Asfar as Europe is concerned to say BHX is under served is an understatement.
Now is the time for the route development team to get their fingers out or get a new team in.
I don't think this is an over reaction as we all know we have been crying out for a number of Euro routes for a long time.Youonly need to look at some of the routes we have had and then lost for one reason or other,Prague,Madrid,Oslo,Stockholm,Budapest,all capital cities and good city break destinations.If we still had 2/3 of these then things would not look quite so bad,but I'm afraid until we can get good airlines on these important routes BHX will remain nothing more than a secondary airport with a few long haul routes.

Totally agree and I forgot we also lost Stockholm.

Deep, deep, deep down inside I'm praying that BHX have something lined up and Flybe have somehow got hold of what's about to happen and reacted in advance. It's then I realise this is BHX we're talking about :sad:

Where from here???

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Maybe you are right and there is something in the pipeline, Mr Kehoe did comment in his email, hopefully more good news to come. Is this Emirates or a substantial agreement with an airline to increase its base or set up a new one ????? As you say this is BHX.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

As much as I've wanted some Middle East expansion I think sorting this mess out now needs to be a priority. Oslo is particularly disappointing as it only started in October and hasn't been given a summer. Hanover reducing to once a day makes it alot less attractive for the business pax and could be yet another destination locals will now use another airport to get to. Hamburg also looks very precarious with only Germanwings left at 6x weekly, can it survive when the CRJ's go?

For many a year I've heard Mr Kehoe bang on about clawing back those pax leaving the region to travel and it appeared small inroads were starting to be made, this undoes a big chunk of that. Time and time again you hear moans that destinations either aren't available from BHX or are considerably more expensive than elsewhere so people travel to the likes of EMA, LTN, BRS etc. Anyone in business knows one of the hardest thing to do is get a customer back once you have lost them.

Routes fail, it happens at every airport, but the regularity that capacity is added at BHX and then taken away a short time later is alarming! Why has nobody been able to work out why and put a stop to it? What BHX needs is some consistency, without it how can you expect the local business communities to commit if they aren't confident a route will still be there in a couple of months!

I'm dedicated to BHX and have often paid more to travel from here than I would have travelling from elsewhere, it's now got to the point though where I'd have some serious doubts about booking my families flights in advance in case the route gets chopped.

As Brummiegem has said the route development team need to be putting in some serious overtime into getting this sorted out once and for all. If they can't do it then they need to move on and get someone in who can!

No more excuses!!!

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

There is no more for me to say, you have just said it all.

:aggressive:

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I do apologise if I'm ranting

 

[Brum X]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

I do apologise if I'm ranting

I feel your pain.

Do you think they could still launch routes next year, i mean they did launch a raft of new routes in February this year to IBZ, PMI, ALC AND KEF for summer 2014 ?? Just a thought, im trying to think positive ????

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: Route Development & Airport Rumours

Possibly, but if they do then it would show they have even less of an idea about route planning than they do now.

There is the potential for alot of very annoyed pax, I'm one of them as Porto and Florence were high on my 2015 to do list

Even if Flybe announced a whole host of new routes next year I for one wouldn't book any as I now have no confidence that it would still be operating when the time comes.