Route Development & Rumours

[nwoody2001]

so far, loads for both have been great but then its been the easter holiday.

we wont find out proper until the April CAA stats are released in mid May which will be the first full month of opperation

 

[Ray Finkle]

I heard last night that the coach company who have run the Chinese tours from BHX for the past few years had spent a lot of money in adding Chinese writing to their coaches in anticipatation of a 2016 programme.
But they have not heard anything since about 2016 flights

Apparently United Travel haven't been notified of any flights either, they are booking the tours on the MAN flights.

If their scheduled service needs the tours booked onto it for a bit of a boost then it may mean that we won't see any charters at all this year?

Maybe we might just get a short run over the peak season rather than the five months originally planned?

 

[Brum X]

Apparently United Travel haven't been notified of any flights either, they are booking the tours on the MAN flights.

If their scheduled service needs the tours booked onto it for a bit of a boost then it may mean that we won't see any charters at all this year?

Maybe we might just get a short run over the peak season rather than the five months originally planned?

Mmmmmmmm ive gotta admit, im starting to feel that something has happened and indeed BHX will not be getting charter flights this year. May 2016 is just around the corner, surely these flights would have been announced by now. Ive been thinking about this for a couple of weeks now and still nothing.
However all may not be lost as BHX could be putting final agreements into place for a proper scheduled service so at the end of the day if we got this in a couple of months rather than some charter flights i think all of us would much prefer this situation.
As always im sure either way all will be confirmed soon.

 

[User001]

Caissa have indeed taken an allocation on a lot of MAN flights, but, I was under the impression that BHX will still be getting the flights in July and August, about 18 flights IIRC.

One issue at the moment is that as far as I'm aware, the CAAC still hasn't approved the BCA application, I'm genuinely unsure what the issue is, given they approved the Madrid and Copenhagen applications quite quickly, maybe something UK specific?

 

[Brum X]

Caissa have indeed taken an allocation on a lot of MAN flights, but, I was under the impression that BHX will still be getting the flights in July and August, about 18 flights IIRC.

One issue at the moment is that as far as I'm aware, the CAAC still hasn't approved the BCA application, I'm genuinely unsure what the issue is, given they approved the Madrid and Copenhagen applications quite quickly, maybe something UK specific?

Indeed it could well be more UK specific, there does always seem to be alot of "fannying" around when it comes to flights between the UK and China. Meanwhile in other european countries like Germany, new chinese flights are announced all the time.
Now now, all you Brexits. You cant blame the EU for that.

 

[nwoody2001]

Caissa have indeed taken an allocation on a lot of MAN flights, but, I was under the impression that BHX will still be getting the flights in July and August, about 18 flights IIRC.

One issue at the moment is that as far as I'm aware, the CAAC still hasn't approved the BCA application, I'm genuinely unsure what the issue is, given they approved the Madrid and Copenhagen applications quite quickly, maybe something UK specific?

When I saw this on the MAN thread with regard to Caissa taking block seat allocations for package holidays on the MAN-PEK Hainan route, I must admit this has not filled me with confidence for either BHX or MAN. MAN should be able to sustain the route without the need for package holiday makers to fill the seats. If they cant, then this does not say good things for ANY regional airport in the uk wanting links to china!

The reality is, Caissa (part of HNA) have been working with BHX for years to get the charter flights up and running. Hainan (Part of HNA) have been talking to MAN for years with regard to starting up the PEK-MAN route. Both routes should be viable and sustainable in their own right and shouldn't be an 'either/or' proposition otherwise its a wasted exercise. So unless something has changed, I cant help but wonder what the delay is. we know Beijing Capital were at BHX last month with the Trade Envoy. You wouldn't normally fly all the way to an airport to tell them youre dropping a route...

just a case of watching this space.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray and all, having recently looked at some facts and figures about Luton airport, Luton only has 18 aircraft that serves the airport , yet Birmingham has 38 ,almost double, a smaller runway length by almost one thousand metres, yet still able to handle 2 plus odd million more than Luton, just a small airport in comparison to Birmingham , yet its packing a bigger punch to stay ahead of its nearest big rival Birmingham. Luton I think is starting to put Birmingham in the shade, by the end of this year , I reakon luton could be looking at fourteen million at least...Andyc

 

[jfy1999]

Hi there ray and all, having recently looked at some facts and figures about Luton airport, Luton only has 18 aircraft that serves the airport , yet Birmingham has 38 ,almost double, a smaller runway length by almost one thousand metres, yet still able to handle 2 plus odd million more than Luton, just a small airport in comparison to Birmingham , yet its packing a bigger punch to stay ahead of its nearest big rival Birmingham. Luton I think is starting to put Birmingham in the shade, by the end of this year , I reakon luton could be looking at fourteen million at least...Andyc

I think I know why Luton serves more passengers: first, their biggest airlines are easyJet and Wizz, which use A319 and A320s while our biggest airlines are Flybe, using Dash 8s and Embraers that carry only half as many passengers as an Airbus, and Monarch which has a very small operation for nearly half the year. Fortunately our other carriers make up a lot of the difference.

The redevelopment of LTN will give it a capacity of 18mppa, it looks like anything more would require a runway extension or second runway.

 

[nwoody2001]

Hi there ray and all, having recently looked at some facts and figures about Luton airport, Luton only has 18 aircraft that serves the airport , yet Birmingham has 38 ,almost double, a smaller runway length by almost one thousand metres, yet still able to handle 2 plus odd million more than Luton, just a small airport in comparison to Birmingham , yet its packing a bigger punch to stay ahead of its nearest big rival Birmingham. Luton I think is starting to put Birmingham in the shade, by the end of this year , I reakon luton could be looking at fourteen million at least...Andyc

Andrew

I would query your terminology and numbers. When you say LTN has 18 aircraft serving it, I assume you mean based aircraft? if that is the case, I would suggest 18 for LTN and 38 for BHX are both wrong. I don't know how many based aircraft every airline has at each but I know the following:

Luton
- Easyjet = 16 (in 2015) (mix of A319/320)
- Monarch = 4 (in 2015) (mix of A320/321)
- Ryanair = ??? (B738s)
- Wizz = ??? (mix of A320/321)
- Thomson/Thomas Cook = ??? (mix of B783/752/A320/321)

I suspect the number will be close to 25 if not more in summer season surely??

Birmingham
- Flybe = 11 (in 2015) (mix of Q400/E175/E195)
- Monarch = 9 (in 2015) (mix of A320/321)
- Ryanair = 4 (in 2015) (B738s)
- Thomson/Thomas Cook = 8/9??? (mix of B783/752/A320/321)

I suspect the number will be close to 35 if not more in summer season!

Consequently, Andrew, this difference is not that big at all. I would suggest 16x A319/320 at LTN has much greater capacity than our 11x Q400/E175/E195 so actually in terms of capacity/seats, the 2 airports are pretty much on par. an then you have to considered how many routes serve the airport on away based aircraft!

The reality is, whilst the terminal and airfield is much more constrained at LTN than BHX, LTN know its market and is great and providing for them! Stack them high and sell them cheap routes (in large) and as such, on the edge of London and being the largest base of one of the largest low cost airlines in Europe, LTN will be a success in the future. BHXs opportunity however is to take advantage of the overspill. LTN is much more constrained and close to reaching its limit. Yes the expansion now has permission to go up to 18m, but actually, they could max that out in the next 5 years. I hope/pray that the likes of Wizz see that, see the market out of BHX and hopefully expand further out of BHX as a result!

 

[Aceshigh]

"MANCHESTER should be able to sustain a Chinese route without holiday makers".

Really ?

 

[jfy1999]

"MANCHESTER should be able to sustain a Chinese route without holiday makers".

Really ?

The MAN flights should be able to survive independently, without the need for IT operators to fill the seats and keep the route afloat. Not to say people won't use the flights to go on holiday.

 

[nwoody2001]

"MANCHESTER should be able to sustain a Chinese route without holiday makers".

Really ?

If you are going to quote me, at least be accurate with the quotes...

What I said was as follows:

"MAN should be able to sustain the route without the need for package holiday makers to fill the seats", and yes is stand by that claim.

MAN-PEK by Hainan is a scheduled service, and with a range of service offers available including business class, these flights should be filled with the likes of business travelers, people visiting friends and relatives (VFR) and other travelers/holiday makers! I am confident that these markets exist in the regions and the demand out of MAN should certainly exist! The last thing MAN should want/need for their new scheduled service is for them to be filled up with 'stack them high, sell them cheap' package holiday travelers.

But anyway, this is the BHX thread and not the MAN through. I simply bring it up as if MAN were to struggle to fill the service (the largest regional airport in the UK) then the likes of BHX, EDI and GLA don't stand a chance! But still, its very early days and it looks like everyone involved is working hard to make it a success!

 

[Aceshigh]

Apologies I certainly didn't mean to sound terse.

I was merely referencing the PEK service which I think you identified.

I see no difference to Hainan operating into Manchester, Birmingham or indeed Heathrow!

All long haul scheduled airlines book holidaymakers and tourists! I would imagine every Chinese airline operating into Heathrow relies primarily on inbound traffic ie tourists visiting London.

BA from Heathrow would fill the back end with BA Holiday bookings.

Likewise Emirates, Qantas, Singapore , SAA, Cathay, Air Canada etc etc.

PK would I'm sure be only to willing to fill a China schedule with tourist traffic!

 

[IanFarquharson]

American Airlines, Aer Lingus, Qatar, Cathay Pacific !!

When Paul Kehoe came onboard at Birmingham Airport it was “a disappointment” that had been left behind. The chief executive tells Kurt Jacobs why it’s now ready to take on its far bigger London rivals.

It’s a challenging day for Paul Kehoe. Just as the press arrive at Birmingham Airport to cover the arrival of the world’s biggest passenger jet and daily run to Dubai, the ISIS bomb goes off at Brussels airport: “We feel this one personally because it’s got some of the same shareholders as we have – we know people there.”

But running one of Britain’s busiest airports, handling the dream holidays and business ambitions of 11 million passengers a year, was never really going to be a job for anyone who wanted the quiet life.

And Kehoe made life busier for himself by, in pretty short order, changing the airport’s ownership structure, attracting investment and overhauling its culture. The chief executive admits that when he came to Birmingham eight years ago from Bristol Airport, after stints at Belfast and Gatwick, he was disenchanted by what he discovered: antiquated working practices, out of date facilities and an airport which, two years before his arrival, had lost its big brand carrier, British Airways.

“Birmingham had been seen by the industry as the go-ahead airport: when I was at Gatwick our strategy was simply ‘beat Birmingham’. The place was a talisman,” he says. “But when I got here I was so disappointed. The airport was backward, with working practices we’d got rid of in other airports. The hangar stock was from 1939 and well past its sell-by date. The pier was 12 feet wide and more like something from a bus station than an international airport. The low-cost airline revolution had passed it by. The world had moved on – we hadn’t.”

Kehoe compares the situation with that at Manchester, where the city fathers had grasped in the 1950s that air travel was not only going to be big, but a major economic driver and so invested heavily. The long-term result is that Manchester now has 23 million passengers, twice Birmingham’s. “We lacked ambition. Manchester was hungry. We were comfortable.” So Kehoe presented the management team with his strategy: “an empty piece of A4 because I knew we’d have start with a blank piece of paper and rebuild the airport from within”.

Kehoe uses the German word “gemultlichkeit” – cosy, comfortable. He says gemultlichkeit was an attitude that seeped through the organisation. Life for many at the airport was nice: some even had two screens at their desks – one for chatting and a “CEO screen” which they would turn to and look busy as the boss walked past. Change was the last thing they wanted. They were in for a shock.

“It was a horror story to some staff because they were unaware that I was about to deliver real change,” says Kehoe. “That meant culling staff, not pleasant but we were heavy. We’ve managed to take down the people we need from four floors of Diamond House (the company headquarters) to two.

“We took out a lot of support functions such as cleaning, but brought others, such as fire-fighting, bus services, air traffic control, back in, in-sourced them, because we wanted control.

“Those who can’t cope with providing the right quality of service are leaving and finding other jobs. Those who can, stay, and are climbing because they feel they can make a difference. As you take people out you realise that some of them didn’t really do anything. We’ve reassigned their work and not missed them. You now see a change programme that has moved through the organisation. And it’s needed because the competition is getting sharper, the customer is getting sharper and not willing to accept bad performance.”

The culture change was not a one-off. Two years ago Kehoe and his team launched Project RE “reengineer, reinvigorate, refocus – anything starting with re” that gave all staff a definable role: provide a customer service, gather intelligence or support the first two.

The project also meant devolving decision- making to those who could engage with it most quickly, and take responsibility for their roles: “We make mistakes. We always will. The test is how we recover.”

It was not just culture that needed overhauling, it was facilities. The airport needed investment, but to achieve that meant changing its ownership structure, which meant Canada’s Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan gradually taking a 48.25 per cent and previous investors Macquarie Airports Group and Aer Rianta exiting, while seven local authorities around the region retained a 49 per cent stake.

The deal unlocked an investment programme in which £340m has been spent at the airport over the past few years: diverting roads, a new air traffic control tower, replacing those hangars with two new giants, one for general aviation and one used by Monarch Airlines to service aircraft and which employs 600 people, car park extensions, new pier, new fire engines.

THOSE WHO CAN’T COPE WITH PROVIDING THE RIGHT QUALITY OF SERVICE ARE LEAVING. THOSE WHO CAN ARE CLIMBING BECAUSE THEY FEEL THEY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
PAUL KEHOE

But most important of all was the 400- metre extension to the runway, a project that had been talked about for 20 years and was finally completed a year ago. The extension is a game-changer, allowing the airport to take flights from as far away as China and the US West Coast, and aircraft such as Emirate’s A380, the giant which arrived on the day of our interview.

The investment was crucial in “building an airport fit for purpose”, and one able to hold its own when pitching to airlines at events such as Routes, “the speed dating” service for the industry, where airports get to make a 20-minute pitch to carriers.

“We don’t pitch the facilities – they’re a given, you don’t start without them,” says Kehoe. “We sell the Midlands’ economy and its ability to make money for the airlines.”

Kehoe still feels the absence of British Airways keenly, even though its last flight from the airport was before his arrival. The response strategy has been ‘if Birmingham can’t have the BA tailfin, we’ll do our damnedest to give passengers the BA experience’ by working through its Oneworld partners – American Airlines, Aer Lingus, Qatar, Cathay Pacific – which means they travel on BA flight codes and get BA air miles.

The airport has also had to evolve to take account for the radically changed economics of the airline industry. Twenty years ago 80 per cent of its income came from airlines’ landing fees. Now – with the rise of the low-cost carriers who guarantee passenger numbers in return for lower charges – those fees account for only 45 per cent of its income. Kehoe agrees that the modern airport is as much a shopping centre and car park as a travel hub.

“The result is that we’ve had to become retailers, car park operators, property developers and advertisers to make money,” he adds. “The more we do that, the more the carriers can pass really low charges on to their customers, say a £20 fare, through discounted charging. We’ve had to drive down costs and get new sources of revenue so we can make offers to airlines that we would not have been capable of doing a few years ago.”

Although there are still some improvements to be made to the business, Kehoe believes that it is now in a state to become the airport that it should be and can take advantage of a rising Midlands economy, a full-to-capacity Heathrow, and the arrival of HS2 on his doorstep in 2026.

As part of the rail scheme the government will fund a £91m travellator – “it’s part of the Bill” – to carry passengers the two minutes from a new HS2 station to the airport.

“It’s coming to a perfect pitch because, not only is the Midlands economy doing well, but Heathrow is full, with no spare capacity, which means it can’t suck out our potential passengers as the economy grows,” says Kehoe.

“Heathrow’s third runway is still 15 years away, at least. That’s plenty of time to do some damage in the market, to make a compelling proposition, and bring passengers back.

“HS2 will effectively move the airport 70 miles closer to London. It’ll be quicker to get here from central London than to Stansted, Gatwick or Luton and only ten minutes more than to Heathrow. So a future chief executive will have not only have Shakespeare’s Airport, but a London airport. We should look to the future with gusto. Our time is now

 

[User001]

I wouldn't read too much into the Cathay Pacific line.

Paul Kehoe himself has said that the article is incorrect in a few places, including th fact the managed Luton airport, not Gatwick.

The Cathay Pacific line is another typo.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Cathay Pacific isn't a typo, they're referring to the addition of the CX codeshare via CDG.

 

[nwoody2001]

you seem no to appreciate the difference between 'package holiday' tourists and conventional tourist. This is a big difference.

If I want a holiday to Ibiza and book it myself a plane ticket via a conventional website/agent, I will look for a ticket, and my price will likely vary according to demand. Generally I will book early and get a cheap flight, of if I book later or in peak time I am charged more. This is how scheduled airlines work and are viable. They manage income and price according to the level of demand.

With package holidays, agents block book large number of seats on flights at rock-bottom prices. They then 'package' them up with hotel deal to make cheap holiday packages. People that fly on package holiday in general will have paid the smallest amount for their air ticket, much less than if it went on the open markets. Consequently, if there are enough seats spare on a scheduled flight that agents are able to block book large numbers of seats, that tends to suggest there is not much demand for on the open market for seats!

 

[User001]

Apologies Ray,

The article is badly written an to me implies it's getting the BA code into BHX via its OneWorld partners.

 

[Ray Finkle]

It's a nice idea but written very badly.

When I first read it I couldn't understand how the hell Gatwick would be aiming only to beat Birmingham, then it clicked that it should have read Luton.

Still, some of the quotes from Mr K about how much of a shambles the airport seemed to have become are interesting.

 

[nwoody2001]

indeed, its a very interesting article. Lets be honest, it not article like this where PK is going to want to announce/let slip of new routes so im included not to read to much into tit-bits like that (at the risk of poor journalism), but as ray says, im very comforted by the perspective PK give with regard to how he wanted to turn the airport around and his approach/vision of the airport. His priority to reduce costs at the airport has really paid dividend, and I hope this summer will be accompanied with a further rash of announcements to give an idea of how the momentum gained in 2016 is continued into 2017. As ray say, our last new airline for 2016 starts Friday with CSA Czech Airlines, with a 4x weekly service increasing to 5x weekly in june!

Interestingly, as ive not heard other people discuss, is Routes Europe Congress from Saturday - Tuesday in Krakow.Its a great time of year for those who have not already to announce their winter schedules!!! Ok there is no guarantee any news will be announced, but I cant help but get excited around these sort of events!