Route Development & Rumours

[ethanegcc]

Oh, yes I originally assumed it would just be B6, LH connections. Shame, BHX could do with some more Orlando links.

 

[Coathanger16]

Yes it's a one off flight as they have done a few times in the past. Shame they can't do something more regular.

Just looked into it and found that. Guess I should have looked further before posting.

The other links are using LH/Condor/JetBlue in a 2 stop service, hardly enticing!

Considering Thomson fly regularly you'd think there'd be more demand than for just one flight. Guess the people at TC think people are happy traipsing up to Manchester.

 

[User001]

The problem is that you have a catch 22 position until something radical changes.

People travel up to Manchester due to lack of choice at Birmingham. Airline consolidates and thinks people are happy to travel so doesn't offer BHX flights. People then continue to travel to Manchester and the cycle continues.

The main issue is that cost wise and everything else, airline is happy with the situation and while it's easy to say 'well, the airlines won't get my custom unless they come to me', reality is, with just one stop options outside the weekly Thomson flight, passengers don't want to wait for that flight to come to the, as there is no other choice, so, again, cycle continues.

 

[ethanegcc]

Just looked into it and found that. Guess I should have looked further before posting.



Considering Thomson fly regularly you'd think there'd be more demand than for just one flight. Guess the people at TC think people are happy traipsing up to Manchester.

Yes, me too. MCO is also much more convinient than SFB. One flight is abismal for the potential of BHX-Florida, although with TCX and VS focused on basing at MAN... TOM seems the only option, unless in 2018 DL does appear, providing connections to a range of FL cities through ATL.

 

[Coathanger16]

The problem is that you have a catch 22 position until something radical changes.

The case with most long haul flights out of Birmingham it seems. With BHX predicting 11.5mppa this year and over 12mppa next year, maybe it may be enough. We'll have to see.

One flight is abismal for the potential of BHX-Florida

Isn't Orlando the number one un-served destination from BHX as well?

 

[nwoody2001]

...it's looking increasingly likely that BHX will be circa 13million by the end of 2017 ...jet2 alone will deliver nearly 800k seats in 2017!

 

[JENNYJET]

A TCX A330 arrived at BHX earlier this day ,Sunday, from Manchester, this being the Air Tanker lease and this afternoon a TCX A330 again an Air Tanker arrived from Iceland, the same or two distinct aircraft ( I do not bother myself with registrations given I hold binoculars and with a seriously wonky arm) I leave it to others.

Just this past half hour, 17.15, the return Paderborn aircraft honoured me with a direct overflight, no binoculars necessary as it was rather low enroute to BZZ.

A wonderful day of military spotting from home on a Sunday!!

 

[Coathanger16]

...it's looking increasingly likely that BHX will be circa 13million by the end of 2017 ...jet2 alone will deliver nearly 800k seats in 2017!

I didn't realize Jet2 were adding that much capacity!

Management had better sort out their master plan. If this growth keeps up they'll be needing it earlier!

 

[Coathanger16]

To my knowledge, these are the new routes starting from BHX that have been announced so far (that haven't started as of 9/10/16)

View attachment 4022

 

[JF57]

Not sure what you call a new route? I presume you mean either a new airline on an existing route or a completely new route? PFO and LCA already served, for example.

 

[User001]

I personally class a new route as:

1- one that was previously unserved
2- a new airline on an existing route

It is a new route for the airline concerned, after all.

What I don't consider a new route is the Ryanair tactic of continuing a winter route into summer and the, calling it a 'new route'.

 

[Jerry]

Guessing half of them are from Jet2?

 

[Ray Finkle]

S17 new routes as it stands are 15 from Jet2, 1 from Thomson, 3 from Thomas Cook, 1 from Monarch, 4 from Ryanair and 1 from Blue Air.

 

[58terminus]

The increase next summer by Wizz Air is welcome but i see it is 16 flights a week.Airlines have recently announced they are pulling out or appear to be reducing operations at BHX.Easyjet and American with a lose of about 25 flights a week.The impression I am getting from some of the contributors to the forums is they were not committed to BHX so we don't really care or need them anyway.
As far as i know apart from Jet 2 very little has been announced for next year or even rumoured.
I hope the airport management are not getting as complacent.I'm sure there not.

 

[Coathanger16]

With regards new what counts as a "new" route (for myself at least):

1). A completely new route
2). An existing route served by a new airline

Admittedly I did include the Flybe flight to Toulouse which isn't actually a "new" route, but a resumption of a previous route.

I hope the airport management are not getting as complacent.I'm sure there not.

To my knowledge it has been said on various forums that BHX management have been out and about at various route conferences (Chengdu and some in N.America). Whilst its always a disappointment to lose an airline, I think management are trying not to get too hung up over it. The fact that American decided to fly that route at all suggests there is some demand - management are hopeful that another airline will step in instead.

 

[Paulsstrange]

Delta should try JFK on a 767 I think it could work as a much better product...

 

[User001]

It's not so much management becoming complacent, as I do think 2017 is going to be a crossroads for ALL UK airports anyway.

It's great to get these early wins, with Jet2 and Ryanair etc, but, 2017 is going to be a very interesting one to watch.

The Pound versus dollar isn't exactly great at the moment, and with anywhere outside London to the US being primarily outbound, it will affect regional flying, hence we are seeing United walk away from NCL, AA away from BHX and I'm going to bet that MAN-Washington gets cut after next summer.

Going east, while still a big market, even China isn't as strong as it once was, and you have to look at the Russia situation, if they stop Siberian passages on flights, that's going to cause no end of pain as aircraft will have to take longer routes and then thin routes get scrutinised even more.

Like I say, we can celebrate the success for now, but, 2017 is not going to be the same as 2016, it may seem doom and gloom like, but, we have to be realistic here. As said at the start of the post, we are at a crossroads in many different respects here.

 

[Coathanger16]

Delta should try JFK on a 767 I think it could work as a much better product...

Personally I think Delta would do better on an Atlanta route. Leave New York to United and they themselves might upgrade their 757 to a 767.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there coathanger16, is this now suggesting that delta airlines are now coming to bhx from 2017, are is this if they were and what route would be more suited to them... Andyc

 

[nwoody2001]

It's not so much management becoming complacent, as I do think 2017 is going to be a crossroads for ALL UK airports anyway.

It's great to get these early wins, with Jet2 and Ryanair etc, but, 2017 is going to be a very interesting one to watch.

The Pound versus dollar isn't exactly great at the moment, and with anywhere outside London to the US being primarily outbound, it will affect regional flying, hence we are seeing United walk away from NCL, AA away from BHX and I'm going to bet that MAN-Washington gets cut after next summer.

Going east, while still a big market, even China isn't as strong as it once was, and you have to look at the Russia situation, if they stop Siberian passages on flights, that's going to cause no end of pain as aircraft will have to take longer routes and then thin routes get scrutinised even more.

Like I say, we can celebrate the success for now, but, 2017 is not going to be the same as 2016, it may seem doom and gloom like, but, we have to be realistic here. As said at the start of the post, we are at a crossroads in many different respects here.

I think that's quite a fare perspective on what 2017 is going to be like. In 2015/16, BHX had an amazing time with regard to new airlines/route announcements, but that level of news was never going to be sustainable. So far, BHX is welcoming an additional 21 routes in 2017 with 1 band new airlines base. If that amount of growth was announced in 2014, many of us would be pinching ourselves! And look at other UK regional airports. Yes some growth has been achieved with some tasty new routes, but nothing compared to what was announced in the previous years.

The reality is, with the exception of the routes already announced, what is also important for 2017 is that the new airlines and routes announced in the previous 18 months are able to bed in and be successful. Since their announcement, BHX has lost 2 of those airlines (AA and VLM), This proves the reality that attracting the airline in the first place is only part of the issue, keeping them is another thing all together!

I still think there is significant reason to be optimistic at BHX with the opportunity of significant growth. Its not unrealistic with existing announcements for the airport to be hitting close to 13,000,000 pax by the end of 2017 (assuming there are no major shocks around the corner). that would equate to a growth of over 4m pax or 46% growth in the last 5 years, an amazing achievement!

don't get me wrong, I would love a few more routes to be announced before we go into 2017. Wizz have had a great year, and other LFs on new routes appear to be strong. we will never know whats around the corner. However, I'm just keen for people to stop measuring success by the number of new routes/airlines announced in a year. The key measure of success is growth, attracting new/more passengers, and increasing our market share! as PK has always said, Airlines take notice of growing airports. if the last 18 months has proved anything to me, its that BHX has a very capable RD Team. Airlines that spoke to us in 2012 when we were only attracting 8.9m pax might think differently when we would be attracting circa 13.0m pax!!!