Route Development & Rumours

[justplanecrazy]

Is that as well as the faro flights user001?

 

[User001]

I think the Faro flights are just a small series this winter.

 

[justplanecrazy]

Cheers user001

 

[TM3]

This route was specifically Canary Wharf/The City -> Wall Street. If that can't pay, it won't work elsewhere at the moment.

BA have been operating this route since 2008 and I understand it is very profitable, as it is all business class.

A couple of factors have eroded it's proposition since then being:

1. Shannon have restricted their hours for pre-clearance, meaning that one of these flights still lands in Shannon, but only to refuel, no pre-clearance is available.

2. IAG have purchased Aer Lingus, as such passengers wanting to travel from LCY can now transtit through Dublin, and preclear.

Despite this I understand the route is still profitable.

The factor that is coming in 2019 is the opening of Crossrail, after that it will be possible to get a train direct from Canary Wharf to Heathrow.

This will effectively render the route pointless.

BA own 2 A318s just for this route, as this type is not popular they have quite a low resale value.

As such I understand that BA is looking for another use for these A318s from 2019.

Due to the low value of the A318s the capital cost of any such route would be low, so maybe they should consider running them from BHX where demand to JFK has been demonstrated.

Not meant as a prediction, just kicking around a potentially viable idea.

 

[Coathanger16]

BA have been operating this route since 2008 and I understand it is very profitable, as it is all business class.

A couple of factors have eroded it's proposition since then being:

1. Shannon have restricted their hours for pre-clearance, meaning that one of these flights still lands in Shannon, but only to refuel, no pre-clearance is available.

2. IAG have purchased Aer Lingus, as such passengers wanting to travel from LCY can now transtit through Dublin, and preclear.

Despite this I understand the route is still profitable.

The factor that is coming in 2019 is the opening of Crossrail, after that it will be possible to get a train direct from Canary Wharf to Heathrow.

This will effectively render the route pointless.

BA own 2 A318s just for this route, as this type is not popular they have quite a low resale value.

As such I understand that BA is looking for another use for these A318s from 2019.

Due to the low value of the A318s the capital cost of any such route would be low, so maybe they should consider running them from BHX where demand to JFK has been demonstrated.

Not meant as a prediction, just kicking around a potentially viable idea.

If BA are to cut their A318 flight from LCY-JFK, the most likely option is that they will be transferred to Heathrow and used to operate a premium business only service from Heathrow to a particular destination - whether the BA A318 can reach New York directly without a stop over is open for debate (according to Wikipedia and GCMAP.com, A318 range with typical load is 5750km, and LHR - JFK is 5554km. Considering BA's A318 config is not typical, it might just be possible to fly non-stop LHR - JFK).

For them to be used to operate from BHX, they would almost certainly require a reconfiguration to provide at least a half business, half economy layout to make BHX-JFK work. Seeming as the aircraft are being reconfigured, it would be just as easy for BA to reconfigure them with standard Club Europe/Euro Traveler seats and operate them on routes from Heathrow where an A319 provides a little too much capacity. BA could even use them to operate domestic shuttles to Heathrow. Alternatively, they could stay at City (albeit reconfigured with standard Club Europe/Euro Traveler) to provide extra capacity on routes out of City.

All in all, it is very unlikely that these aircraft will be seen at BHX. BA bought them specifically for London City, so the most likely thing is for BA to make them work in some other capacity at London City. Failing that, reconfigured and based from Heathrow is the next most likely option in my opinion.

 

[Glenn Eldridge]

I believe the A318 stops at SNN heading west is because a fully fuelled A318 cannot take off from LCY

 

[58terminus]

Folks
We are taking rumours to a new level with this talk of BA operating A318's to New York from BHX.
Rumours should have some grasp on reality however tenuous.

 

[Jerry]

It'll never happen they'll probably shift the A318's to LHR and fly them from there offering the same service.

 

[nwoody2001]

Moving on....?!

 

[58terminus]

Just sell them to a Cello type airline.Still some money to be mabe there transporting Premier League teams
before the taxman gets them all. No range problems flying Stansted to Norwich either.

 

[TM3]

Sorry guys, this is the route development thread.

I've seen way less viable routes discussed here to places with unproven demand, requiring widebodies, to low yield tourist destinations, to be operated by airlines who have never operated from BHX before etc...

Agreed BA is clearly going to operate/dispose of these planes in a way that makes most profit or the smallest loss.

I can't see them being used at LHR in all business config as this would just be a waste of slots when seats could just be sold on a regular widebody service, likewise if the introduction of Crossrail means there is insufficient demand to NYC I can't see another destination where there would be demand either.

The could be reconfigured to Club Europe or economy from either location but those routes would not develop anywhere near the yield.

The BA/AA partnership has already proven that it can easily sell enough tickets to fill an A318 to JFK, plus there is a good mix of premium seats in there too.

I can't see that BA would start that service in isolation but maybe there is scope for it if BA are looking to move some City Flyer ops out to BHX and MAN.

For information the Crossrail link will reduce the time to get from Canary Wharf from around 1h20 with changes to around 40 mins on a direct service. It takes about 10 mins to get to LCY. LCY has to close at weekends.

Given that BA seem to be looking at diversifying some operations out of LCY maybe they think Crossrail will adversely affect demand out of LCY as a whole?

 

[David_itl]

“This is for real,’’ said Orange County Executive Steve Neuhaus. “The county has been working with the Port Authority on this for six, nine months – it’s got a lot of moving parts - and we’re very confident we’re finally going to see the ‘international’ in Stewart International Airport....

Neuhaus said he understands Norwegian will offer 21 flights a week between Stewart and England, Scotland, Ireland and Norway using Boeing’s new 737 Max"

So BHX or MAN? LGW ruled out as they are going double daily to JFK

http://www.recordonline.com/news/20...ns-flights-between-stewart-airport-and-europe

 

[Ray Finkle]

At the risk of sounding like a snob (which is not my intention) I'm kind of hoping that it's not BHX.

With LHR just down the road the US has always been a struggle and we're now back to one carrier only to NY, something like this could put real pressure on United meaning that we eventually end up with none. If it was EWR or JFK I'd be happier but I'd hate to lose a service to NY only to end up with one 68 miles away.

 

[ethanegcc]

I know what you mean Ray and in a way I am sceptical about DY coming to MAN but it is only a 738M and AA have proved there is more capacity than just a 752 from BHX to NY so, this could possibly be ideal?

It is definitely swings and roundabouts.

 

[Coathanger16]

Any news on this supposed "big" announcement? Or has it fallen through?

As a side point, having looked through some of the recent Manchester threads, there has been much talk of USPBC. It was announced a while ago that both Heathrow and Manchester would be getting USPBC at some point within the next decade. What, if any, impact do people think that will have on TATL flights from BHX?

Given that USPBC is at least 5 years away at either airport, BHX will hopefully have hit the 15mppa mark by then - in other words, about 50% bigger than today. If that's the case then perhaps BHX can hold onto whatever TATL flights it has by then.

 

[Butty]

How coathanger. excuse my ignorance but what does uspbc mean? thanks in advance.

 

[User001]

United States Pre Border Clearance.

 

[nwoody2001]

Any news on this supposed "big" announcement? Or has it fallen through?

As a side point, having looked through some of the recent Manchester threads, there has been much talk of USPBC. It was announced a while ago that both Heathrow and Manchester would be getting USPBC at some point within the next decade. What, if any, impact do people think that will have on TATL flights from BHX?

Given that USPBC is at least 5 years away at either airport, BHX will hopefully have hit the 15mppa mark by then - in other words, about 50% bigger than today. If that's the case then perhaps BHX can hold onto whatever TATL flights it has by then.

I suppose if you have to ask if the 'big news' story has broke, then surely I hadn't broke?!!

If you want any update on this 'bigger rumour/news', I suspect User001 is your guy. He seems to be nosy connect with this story based on previous posts they have posted on this thread, the MAN thread and his twitter account ...any update User001???

 

[Jerry]

Personally as a regular trans-atlantic flyer (3 to 4 times a year) USPBC never really comes into the equation for me. Flying out of CWL i've always chosen KLM/Skyteam because the connections are better than DUB for the route i take and i think if you ask non regular fliers then they probably wouldn't know what it is and would always go by price, frequency, directness and what suits there travel plans. I think for business travelers it's handy but for the rest i doubt it much of a big deal.

 

[User001]

Announcement was always scheduled for January so I'd wait till then.