2018 predictions

[User001]

so, as we head into 2018, what do we feel 2018 will look like for MAN? I’m going to try and stay clear of what’s in the ACL report, unless specific points need to be covered, otherwise it’s not really a prediction but instead just a report of what we know.

The good:

-I suspect at least 2 new Far East flights announced.

-Qatar to go 18 weekly. Daily flights on the AM and lunchtime flights, 4 weekly on the evening flight

-Emirates SkyCargo announce a 1 weekly flight

-Thomas Cook announce at least 2 long haul routes. One for W18/19, one for S19.

-TUI announce Vietnam or Sri Lanka from Manchester.

The Bad:

-I fear 2018 could be the last season for Adria. To go down to 1 weekly and be it’s only U.K. airport for scheduled flights means I fear this could be the writing on the wall.

-AA to ORD. Such a short season, could the writing be on the wall for this one?

The indifferent:

-Spicejet won’t start MAN ops as they won’t be able to get their long haul plans in order

-Vueling won’t start the MAN base, despite applying for based slots yet again.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Well MAN will come in at 27.8m for 2017 so 4.25% in 2018 would get them to 29m.
All depends if the additional RYR and EZY come to fruition or if the slots get scrapped.

 

[David_itl]

Lufthansa to introduce a 4th daily Munich service from October 2018 with an alteration to what they do in the morning - to bring LH2500 to operate 0845/0935 to create a neat place for an 1200/1245 insertion (this is on the back of them redeploying some A380s there)

Swiss to either reinstate LX394 from October 2018 as a daily service instead of weekend only or to revisit the idea of weekend flights to Geneva

Iberia to replace the Express brand with Air Nostrum on a 5 weekly basis

Flybe/Stobart Southend and regional French services to stop

Virgin to add Varadero and/or St Lucia

BA to further ramp up services with winter 2018 seeing them do the "glorified" positioner on a Thursday with potential winter sun trip to Tenerife in addition to increased ski schedule

Etihad to go triple daily but use the 789 rather than 77Ws

Oman Air to go down to 5 weekly

 

[User001]

The Ryanair expansion has now been confirmed internally, a lot of work went into getting all of their expansion into T3.

The big question mark is Easyjet and ‘how bold they go’.

They have applied for 20 based, I personally think 18is more likely but of course, it could be 15/16 too.

Even with the loss of Monarch, even if just 50% of the proposed flights come off, 4.5% growth is achievable.

 

[User001]

Nice list David.

Etihad having a tough time of late and plus they don’t really have a 3rd hub wave yet, so don’t see them going to 3 daily for a long time yet.

Oman doing surprisingly well, especially Cargo, so they are more likely to go something like 10 weekly than 5 weekly.

 

[ethanegcc]

Good list David, but is that predictions or do you have some specific knowledge regarding that?

 

[David_itl]

Predictons only! But there's a kind of reasoned logic for some...

Lufthansa per what I stated.

Iberia - pretty sure that the numbers from the MAN catchment area going to South America would prefer to have connections better protected by using them rather than reliant on Ryanair's schedules.

Swiss is all tied in with winter skiing (and also further diminishing any Powdair-ish style ops)

The Flybe situation dictated to by the poorish loads (32%!) reported elsewhere on the Southend run (it never looks good that even with deep discounting on to promote a new route that it is struggling and the French regional runs used to be 2 or 3 weekly for a longer period in the summer but now it's more of a Saturday thing)

 

[Dobbo]

Picking up some of the points above, combined with some thoughts of my own:

I cannot see Spicejet getting their ducks in a row to start by S18. Whether that leads to anything from them at a later date or flushes another Indian carrier out of the woodwork is an interesting question.

On the Far East, we think we know one of the possibles. It will be interesting to see if the Chinese explosion actually takes hold or whether more of the "traditional" carriers either expand (e.g. CX) or enter the market (e.g. TG). Not quite the Far East, but I'll be following SQ/IAH which, if it repeated the SIN sector demand, would almost certainly lead to a daily service. We may hear more rumblings from NH / KE but I don't see anything concrete in 2018.

In the Middle East, I cannot see EY with a triple daily due to the lack of a hub bank. Whether that will change with the new facilities at AUH remains to be seen. I don't see them cutting capacity here, double daily B77W feels right. I'm not as optimistic about QR, who have their political troubles.

In Africa, I await TCX's intention. I don't think MAN is too far away from ET, but this is not likely in 2018.

In the Americas, I can't seem ORD lasting to 2019. I'd not be shocked if it gets cut for this summer. Whether UA or anyone else make hay from this is for debate. VS I genuinely cannot get a feel for. The intent seems to remain, but their core business is at LHR and whilst they have fleet problems they will understandably have their focus elsewhere. I like @David_itl 's suggestions. I don't see SEA being popular, TCX using air tanker is a mistake. Trying to bridge the seasonality remains the key challenge.

In Europe, much depends on Ryanair, EasyJet, Jet2 as to whether 2018 is an up year. If a decent slice of capacity is added then 29m should be doable and then some. BA's growth is worth watching... will BACF become an all week base?

MAN needs a better feed for long haul flights, so will the use of a MAN specific interline transfer facility (via the major low costs) create that in absence of a hub carrier?

Seeing the likes of LOT, Croatian speculated to replace some Monarch capacity is a good sign and I feel the market is more durable now that it was this time last year.

 

[Aceshigh]

2018
The good.....

Modest growth across the board 8% taking Manchester to 30m.

Kuwait hooefully see the opportunity and swap out Shannon. Our only new long haul airline for 2018.

The bad.

Bye bye ORD

Re-evaluation of pre clearance with a decison to scrub. (Surely we would have had some firm plans by now?).

China. Further provarication within internal Chinese politics meaning now't down. Shanghai remains tantatalising out of reach.

Thai Airways marketing continue to completely miss the fact that Thailand is one of the biggest markets from Manchester!

No Korean service as tensions continue.
'Who on earths wants to go to to Seoul".

The ugly

Complete capitulation of the pure cargo offering sees OUR Cargo Manager move FedEx to EMA. A far cry from 3 x Chinese freighters on the ground together.

Instead of using the additional 50% UK -China access rights from outside the M25, Chinese airlines simply gravitate to Heathrow.

 

[User001]

Who on earth wants to go to Seoul?

The growing business links. The growing student populations. The growing (and very high yield) Cargo. Tourists in both directions.

I’m going to go out on limb here and say there is probably more business case for Seoul than Guangzhou (which HU intend to start) as an example.

Pre clearance is just held up as it’s still awaiting government sign off, and as you can imagine, they have bigger fish to fry at the moment. Not that it’s being scrubbed or not valid, it’s just there are more important things to sort first. The ‘missing pier’ is where USPBC will go once it’s been signed off.

 

[Aceshigh]

I was actually in the middle of a "ps" , suggesting I'll probably be 100% wrong on the negatives, but you pounced early the vagaries of posting THEN editing.
Must try harder.

 

[User001]

I haven’t edited my posting?

 

[ethanegcc]

My predictions:

-LOT to announce Warsaw (although getting late)
-Hainan Airlines to launch second destination but summer seasonal e.g. Guangzhou
-American Airlines to cut Chicago, United to announce launch of Chicago for following year
-Cathay Pacific to operate the A350-1000 on the route by W18
-Flybe to chop and change several routes, but Stobart Air ops to continue
-Thomas Cook rumours about Cape Town to ebb and flow but never come to fruition - as with South Korea routes.
-Interest in India to increase but SpiceJet won't launch.
-New service to Tel Aviv, in light of Monarch's departure.
-British Airways Cityflyer services to increase, with more frequent LCY-MAN flights and gradual introduction of business orientated destinations
-United won't increase capacity on New York Newark, unfortunately.
-Air Transat to announce a re-launch of Calgary - or increased Toronto with A321Neo LR.
-Virgin Atlantic to continue as they are, with no increase for Winter 2018, because they are largely focused on their primary Heathrow hub despite ongoing soundbites resembling commitment.
-Strong expansion from low cost carriers although again getting late.
-Oman Air to roster Boeing 787 on the MCT-MAN route
-Etihad to stagnate, perhaps permanently changing one flight to the Boeing 787-9.

 

[Land23R]

Interesting to see that predictions so far have been more cautious than previous years and are probably more realistic for that.

In terms of overall pax numbers in 2018, I feel the key ingredient will be how much of the lost MON capacity is made good in conjunction with the overall market sentiment for short haul. An obvious statement I suppose.

Following User's comments, I'm more confident that we will see the Ryanair expansion as reflected by the initial slot report. However, I'm less certain what to expect from easyjet over and above the previously anticipated extra based a/c to 13. I hope we will see a further 5 but am by no means confident about that. LOT seems more likely to happen than a Vueling base.

2018 could well be a fairly flat year in terms of long haul.
Personally, I see more chance of some evening CX flights in winter 18/19 than growth to mainland China. PVG seems as illusive as ever and am not convinced about demand for Guangzhou.

Strangely enough, I'm more hopeful about an announcement for India, although like others, not with Spicejet.

AA to ORD may survive for a short summer season but that could well be its final curtain. It seems we are stuck with a B757 on EWR.

Virgin and Thomas Cook are hard to read just now. The impression is they are consolidating without any obvious signs of further real expansion short term, although we see a bit of route swapping on the latter with SEA for MIA.

SQ could be interesting. IAH wasn't too bad in November. Let's see what happens in Jan-Mar. Sticking my neck out, I think it's more likely to go daily than suffer a reduction in frequency.

Back on short haul, Jet2 will be another key player and there are grounds for optimism of 1 or 2 more based a/c and capacity growth.

In summary, I believe 4% growth will be difficult to achieve although the last quarter of 2018 should not have the negative impact that MON's demise had in 2017.

I desperately hope my glass half empty feelings will be proved wrong. My predictions are usually wrong which is some consolation.

 

[Aceshigh]

I meant MY editing User !
I was referring to me.

 

[Dobbo]

SQ could be interesting. IAH wasn't too bad in November. Let's see what happens in Jan-Mar. Sticking my neck out, I think it's more likely to go daily than suffer a reduction in frequency.

I agree daily is more likely than any reduction, I cannot see MAN-SIN any lower than 5x weekly (even as a standalone). CX show what is achievable, and the A359 is the perfect aircraft for them - incredibly efficient on these 11-13hr sectors.

 

[Coathanger16]

Virgin and Thomas Cook are hard to read just now. The impression is they are consolidating without any obvious signs of further real expansion short term, although we see a bit of route swapping on the latter with SEA for MIA.

I would say with Virgin and TCX that 2018 is probably a good time for them to pull back on expansion and focus more on consolidation of existing services. Correct me if I'm wrong, but besides Las Vegas and Orlando, haven't most of TCX N.American destinations been added only in the last couple of years. By most accounts that has been a lot of growth in a relatively short space of time. Add in Virgin launching SFO and BOS, I think consolidation of existing services is the better option for long term success.

Also worth pointing at that the majority of US destinations (certainly the major ones) are now served from Manchester. Destinations such as Detroit, Washington & Dallas for example I can't see being launched by TCX, and I can only really see Virgin launching to other Delta hubs (though they seem more cautious with expansion than TCX).

As I say, for the long term success of MAN I think 2018/19 would be better suited to consolidation and increasing frequency on existing routes than launching new routes.

 

[Dobbo]

I think Coathanger is spot on here. Most major US (also Canadian) destinations are served, with the (IMO major) caveats that:

1. Many of them are seasonal, as we see with SFO, BOS, LAX and now to a greater extent ORD. Redressing this imbalance is crucial to ongoing viability.
2. Many of them are thin routes, whereby new routes either bypassing or in competition could cause them to become unviable. We have seen this with IAD, and I would place a number of other routes in a similar position to this such as ORD, IAH.
3. Even the thicker routes are composed of thin strands and are therefore susceptible to change. Take New York - the AA strand was to thin and it has now been cut. We think UA have plans to upgague but for now it is on the B752, the lowest rung on the ladder. The same could be said for SFO.
4. The full service airlines need to get their hub strategy right. For AA, it has obviously not worked at ORD (this seems to be a wider TATL issue, not just MAN), JFK is now O&D, and PHL seems to be back in business. Where do they try and build from a solid PHL foundation, and what help might be available on this side of the Atlantic. For UA they seem to be building a fortress at EWR so that's where they will aim. For VS/DL, they have a clear target of daily year round flights to ATL and JFK, the major market of Orlando and Las Vegas as a core offering. SFO and BOS are different beasts, seem to have done okay but need thinkening up as per point 2 above. It will be interesting to see if VS next aiming point is a DL hub (if so where, either Midwest or West Coast) or a beach offering as suggested by David itl.

 

[Land23R]

Yes, good points by both Coathanger and Dobbo.

Looking at the US market overall, I wonder how the total pax over the summer (perhaps April-Oct) in 2017 compared to the previous year. When new direct services are added, it's not easy to determine what has been lost using the hubs and what is new business because a destination is now non-stop.

Then there is the impact of a lower pound (although it's recovered about half of its initial fall after the BREXIT vote). Is there a Trump effect? Who knows. Perhaps folk are looking further afield for their long haul holidays, despite the many attractions and great variety of the landscape of the US - in my view anyway.

Qatar and Etihad were mentioned earlier with the possibility of expansion by one or both. Monthly figures since March hardly support either although EY has picked up in the last 3 months. Percentage changes from March (included due to the Easter timing effect) per the CAA stats were:
QR. / EY.
March) 0% / -15%
April) +6% / +5%
May) +4% / -3%
June) -13% / -8%
July) -10% / -6%
Aug) -4% / -5%
Sep) -5% / +1%
Oct) -10% / +4%
Nov) -15% / +8%

Changes of equipment, premium passenger numbers, and cargo can effect yields and it's not just a question of total pax but I don't think those figures compare favourably with EK.

 

[Dobbo]

I am trying to be fancy and use multi-quote. Fingers crossed the formatting works okay and is easy to follow...

TUI announce Vietnam or Sri Lanka from Manchester.

I had not picked up on this suggestion. Both are major tourist attractions and, in the case of Sri Lanka is one where a regular scheduled service is not out of the question over the next 2-4 year period.

Have they fixed that B788 that got holed...

Lufthansa to introduce a 4th daily Munich service from October 2018 with an alteration to what they do in the morning - to bring LH2500 to operate 0845/0935 to create a neat place for an 1200/1245 insertion (this is on the back of them redeploying some A380s there)

This makes a lot of sense, albeit I'm not sure how well LH do with connecting traffic at MAN? I assume it is mostly Africa?

Swiss to either reinstate LX394 from October 2018 as a daily service instead of weekend only or to revisit the idea of weekend flights to Geneva

I thought Swiss were double daily all the time - shows what you don't know. I'd say a weekend flight to Geneva would be more up the street of BACF (I assume the likes of EasyJet and Jet 2 already operate this service.

Iberia to replace the Express brand with Air Nostrum on a 5 weekly basis

My take would be that, for the same reason you have suggested (connections to South America) you would see an expansion of Iberia Express (I assume they connect seamlessly with long haul at MAD?) I assume TAP are doing so well because of South American connections, and I am surprised Iberia don't offer a similar service to TAP.

Virgin to add Varadero and/or St Lucia

I think VS's next move will be interesting. They can tap into (and invariably be steered by) the much larger JV they are now part of, so perhaps offering leisure connections from places like AMS, CDG via MAN is the way forward for them, in addition to flying into DL hubs.

BA to further ramp up services with winter 2018 seeing them do the "glorified" positioner on a Thursday with potential winter sun trip to Tenerife in addition to increased ski schedule

Would the ERJ have the range for TFS? Where could BACF realistically go next (they should aim to add rotations to where they currently go).

LOT to announce Warsaw (although getting late)

I'd be surprised if this did not launch, but it may be later in 2018.

American Airlines to cut Chicago, United to announce launch of Chicago for following year

United won't increase capacity on New York Newark, unfortunately.

​

The first part we seem to have consensus on, but I had not thought about UA. My understanding is that all airlines have challenges at ORD so this may cause UA a challenge even if they were minded to do so. I think it is more likely they will add a widebody in peak summer to EWR than anything else but id not put it past them!

Cathay Pacific to operate the A350-1000 on the route by W18

I think it is more likely CX add additional frequency than use a larger aircraft (much better for connections to Australasia) but you never know...

Air Transat to announce a re-launch of Calgary - or increased Toronto with A321Neo LR.

I think this is very interesting. They have already added capacity this winter with an extra rotation and now using the A330 over the A310. I wonder if they might aim for YYZ next winter at 4x weekly.

I assume TS would focus on YYZ and YVR, these being the two markets where they do/might face competition from Rouge, or possibly Mainline or WestJet.