Ryanair

[TheLocalYokel]

Cologne

The first full calendar month (November 2017) has now been published on the CAA stats.

Ryanair carried 4964 passengers, average load 146, load factor 77.2%. Not a great load factor by Ryanair standards but it's a new route and November isn't the busiest month of the year. Neither are the remainder of the winter months for that matter.

bmi regional's Dusseldorf saw 1382 passengers, a fall of 12% on November 2016. Perhaps not too bad given Ryanair's new route to Cologne.

Germany saw a mixed bag of passenger numbers in November.

bmi regional's route to Hamburg saw a drop of 5% to 1271. The same airline's route to Frankfurt gained 24% to 4358 and its Munich route saw a rise of 28% to 3656.

easyJet carried 6479 to Berlin Schoenfeld, a drop of 15%.

As with all routes leisure passenger traffic might have suffered a bit given the earlier school half-term this year compared with 2016 which stretched well into the first week of November.

As always, the yield is what counts.

 

[alphagolf]

Zadar

Looks like Zadar has been dropped by Ryanair as its been removed from the destinations page on the Bristol Airport website.

It is still showing on the Ryanair website but does not show any availability.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Zadar

Looks like Zadar has been dropped by Ryanair as its been removed from the destinations page on the Bristol Airport website.

It is still showing on the Ryanair website but does not show any availability.

We know yields are what count but the load factors last summer weren't great by Ryanair standards. From May to September they were respectively: 73%, 90%, 86%, 90%, 85%.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Another one-season not such a wonder from Ryanair then it would seem, to go with the likes of Eindhoven, Perpignan, Montpelier, Toulon and Trieste that all enjoyed just one summer, that of 2009 which was unfortunate as it coincided with the depth of the recession and so far is the only year this century that the airport has seen a drop in passenger numbers.

Bydgoszcz holds the Ryanair record at BRS though - axed after just two months in operation in summer 2010, although Dinard was shown in Ryanair timetables as being brought back in summer 2012 after several years' absence but was then dropped before the season commenced.

 

[Severn]

It might be worth waiting for the full summer schedule to appear yet.
Bergerac, Reus, Zadar are still not yet bookable but show up on Ryanair’s website. This is true with other U.K. airports as well

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It might be worth waiting for the full summer schedule to appear yet.
Bergerac, Reus, Zadar are still not yet bookable but show up on Ryanair’s website. This is true with other U.K. airports as well

I posted a few weeks ago that Bergerac and Reus were late starters for inclusion in the summer 2017 timetable and only began to operate in June.

 

[Jerry]

Also there might be more from France later on in the year as Ryanair has launched quite a few new routes from France today and is currently in talks with French unions with a view to basing in France. According to the article the routes launched are for winter 2018.
https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/...french-winter-2018-routes-plans-french-bases/

 

[alphagolf]

I posted a few weeks ago that Bergerac and Reus were late starters for inclusion in the summer 2017 timetable and only began to operate in June.

Just noticed that on BRS website, Bergerac has also been removed and delving a little deeper into Reus it suggests once weekly for Summer '18 with tui.

But we know what Ryanair are like for adding and removing flights from the schedules.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Also there might be more from France later on in the year as Ryanair has launched quite a few new routes from France today and is currently in talks with French unions with a view to basing in France. According to the article the routes launched are for winter 2018.
https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/...french-winter-2018-routes-plans-french-bases/

I thought someone posted towards the end of last year that some of the BRS Ryanair sun routes were seeing small increases in frequency this summer compared with last summer. If that's so - I can't find the post, assuming I'm not dreaming about it - that might account for the axing of some of the routes mentioned above. If they have been axed.

 

[Marko1]

I wouldn't take the airports listings as gospel to be honest. There are many anomalies . As for Ryanair I be surprised if Bergerac is dropped although I would possibly say the other two may be vulnerable.

However Ryanair better hurry up and start completing their schedules as it's only 2 months till start of the summer schedule .

 

[Severn]

On this thread last February we were posting about RYR increasing certain Summer 17 routes, so like I said, theres time yet!
I think all the major airlines this year are still scrambling to work out schedules for this summer (and how many aircraft to base where/what routes to operate) since the likes of Monarch and Air Berlin now bust.

 

[Jerry]

With Ryanair launching BFS-MAN what chances do people think their is of them launching BRS-BFS.

 

[alphagolf]

With Ryanair launching BFS-MAN what chances do people think their is of them launching BRS-BFS.

Ryanair have previously operated BRS - BHD, think they dropped that route when they pulled out of Belfast City (BHD), taking a look back to 2010 when both BFS & BHD were served, they carried 270,000.
Last year 2017, BFS estimated to carry 262,000, I don't know whether an additional carrier on the BRS - BFS route would increase these figures, but with Ryanair cheap fares would it be detrimental to flyBE CWL -BHD.

 

[Jerry]

ut with Ryanair cheap fares would it be detrimental to flyBE CWL -BHD

I wouldn't be so sure about that I'd say they'd effect EZY more. Look at CWL-FAO Flybe have actually increased their flights on that. Ryanair also operate Dublin from Bristol and Flybe have been increasing flights on the CWL-DUB route as well.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Ryanair have previously operated BRS - BHD, think they dropped that route when they pulled out of Belfast City (BHD), taking a look back to 2010 when both BFS & BHD were served, they carried 270,000.
Last year 2017, BFS estimated to carry 262,000, I don't know whether an additional carrier on the BRS - BFS route would increase these figures, but with Ryanair cheap fares would it be detrimental to flyBE CWL -BHD.

When easyJet and Ryanair both flew Belfast routes the city pair market began to grow and there is statistical evidence to show that Ryanair was gradually increasing its market share.

Incidentally, CWL had a city pair to Belfast up to 2010: bmi baby operated to BFS and Flybe to BHD. In 2009 that city pair route saw 82,000 passengers but only 48,000 in 2010 because bmi baby was beginning to implode and carried only 7,500 passengers in 2010. There is no overwhelming evidence to suggest that this had an effect on BRS-Belfast in 2010 albeit passenger numbers did rise that year.

2009 243,000 (easyJet/BFS 163,000: Ryanair/BHD 80,000)
2010 270,000 (easyJet/BFS 150,000: Ryanair/BHD 114,000: Flybe/BHD 6,000)*
2011 222,000 (easyJet/BFS 180,000: Flybe/BHD 42,000)
2012 234,000 (easyJet/BFS 217,000: Flybe/BHD 17,000)**
2013 226,000 (easyJet/BFS)
2014 231,000 (easyjet/BFS)
2015 246,000 (easyJet/BFS)
2016 249,000 (easyJet/BFS)

*Ryanair axed all its BHD routes at the end of October 2010 and Flybe returned on the BRS-BHD route in November that year.

** Flybe axed its BRS-BHD route in the late spring of 2012 saying that loads were unsustainable, although the average was actually higher than on its EXT-BHD route at that time which was retained. The truth is probably that it was losing market share to easyJet, not the first time that it had lost out to easyJet at BRS.

Looking at the above figures there appears scope for more seats to Belfast but whether the yield would justify them is another matter. If it did easyJet would probably have already stepped in and increased its own offering: incidentally, on checking easyJet's schedule this year I've only just realised that they operate the Belfast route four times on Fridays this winter - morning, lunchtime, mid afternoon and early evening departures - so they must have judged there was room for a tiny expansion if only in the winter months. I can't remember 4 x daily before, not in recent years anyway. Summer returns to 3 x daily on Fridays.

Addendum

In fact BRS-BFS also operates 4 x daily on Mondays and Fridays for a short period commencing 20 August this year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

In the easyJet thread we've just been discussing how the rumoured big increase of based aircraft at MAN this summer might affect BRS. It's now just been announced that Ryanair is to base three extra aircraft and operate ten new routes at MAN from June.

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/...investment-with-3-new-aircraft-at-manchester/

If the Monarch fall-out is beginning to focus the attention of easyJet and Ryanair on the likes of MAN it might be that the BRS policy of relying on existing carriers to push its growth might have to be looked at again if it suffers as a consequence. Even KLM is showing small reductions at times this year. It beggars belief that BRS seems to have turned its face against Jet2.

 

[Marko1]

My opinions on the need for greater choice from Bristol have been made pretty clear on here before. I just hope that jet2 pitches up for summer 19 now. The attention of both easyJet and Ryanair is clearly going to be focussed on continental Europe till the Brexit situation has been sorted out plus monarchs collapse has sort of muddied the waters. Incidentally I think the aircraft increase with Ryanair is only for a few months but of all the new destinations announced , all could clearly be very successful at Bristol. Whether that will occur is anyone's guess now.

Like many of potential customers I'm getting a bit impatient to see what the final summer schedule will be now , it's now just 2 months away from starting .

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

It beggars belief that BRS seems to have turned its face against Jet2.

My opinions on the need for greater choice from Bristol have been made pretty clear on here before. I just hope that jet2 pitches up for summer 19 now.

The thing is gentleman if you look at the order book there is not many new orders on the books for delivery into Summer 19. So, given ZB's collapse and the gap to fill in MAN/BHX, STN expansion, 800's over in BFS, retirement of the 300's over the next few years, do we realistically see a BRS (or CWL) base unless another order is made?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The thing is gentleman if you look at the order book there is not many new orders on the books for delivery into Summer 19. So, given ZB's collapse and the gap to fill in MAN/BHX, STN expansion, 800's over in BFS, retirement of the 300's over the next few years, do we realistically see a BRS (or CWL) base unless another order is made?

The whispers are that there is not likely to be a Jet2 base or even presence on Severnside (other than as a carrier for a holiday company in the ski season) in the foreseeable future. That said, there were strong whispers a year ago that Jet2 was going to open a BRS base in summer 18 but it didn't.

The debates on the respective BRS and CWL boards are therefore to some extent academic if as seems likely Jet 2 won't come to this part of the world for at least two years, if then; if at all.

However, so far as CWL is concerned Jet2 is only part of the discussion relating to the way that CWL might reach its targeted 2 mppa by 2020. In other words: "what if?"

With BRS it forms part of the (to some of us) perplexing policy of the airport management to apparently eschew any more large airline presences to grow its passenger numbers and instead concentrate on existing airlines. Again it's the "what if" scenario with Jet2 or anyone else.

BRS is currently around 8.2 million passengers for this year and the airport is projecting 12 mppa by 2025. easyJet has been growing inexorably year after year with at least 15, possibly 16, based Airbuses this year; TUI is basing an extra aircraft this summer taking its complement to four; Thomas Cook is also adding an aircraft bringing its total to three. Only Ryanair of the main airlines at the airport is seeing little growth. I'm not sure if it's four or five based aircraft this year, but the network will be broadly the same with more non-based routes if it's four.

So the debate centres around how BRS could reach that 12 mppa by 2025 if the current carriers reach a wall in terms of further substantial growth. Inevitably Jet2 gets a mention.

 

[Marko1]

Interesting to know how whispers of jet2 heading to the southwest now become whispers of not. It would be the only part of the uk without a jet2 presence and they are advertising heavily in the media at the moment .

However , it looks at though both brs and cwl would have to look at existing carriers to bring organic growth in passenger numbers. In brs case both main low cost carriers have plenty of opportunities to grow plus tui and tcx. Tui has big opportunities to grow as it has done this year filling gaps that don't seem to interest fr/ ezy such as Rhodes and kos .

As for over 10 mill plus I love to know the airports plans