CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Bigman]

Yes I did. I was just relaying what is on the CAA website and also quoting the 12 month rolling year figure.

 

[Seasider]

February pax figures on the CAA website - 198161 -2%. This is the first fall in nearly 12 months. Most of it (if not all) will be due to the snow at the end of the month when a lot of flights were cancelled.

 

[Bigman]

To put this in context, Donny were down 10% in January and 16% in February. Our figure isn't bad under the circumstances.

 

[White Heather]

I suspect that due to the snow, then fog, then snow, (and possibly more to come before the month is out) the reduction in March will be greater in terms of numbers, although as it is a busier month, there may not be too much of a reduction in percentage. Sadly, I think February will be the first of a succession of months with reduced passenger figures - or showing very little increase.

 

[Bigman]

OOPS...March down 9%. Rolling year stands at 4,049,456.

 

[Finger66]

On the face of it the figures dont seem great but lets not forget it was a horrendous month weather wise so that helps put things a little more into perspective

 

[lbaspotter]

On the face of it the figures dont seem great but lets not forget it was a horrendous month weather wise so that helps put things a little more into perspective

Its not too bad, I suppose it could have been worse!
Compared to March 2017 we had no Loganair (Glasgow), No Aurginy (Guernsey) No Monarch (As the went bust) and a reduced British Airways (London Heathrow). That's not forgetting all the Cancelled & Diverted flights due to the extreme weather "Beast from the East"

 

[Seasider]

The actual figure was 225,584. LHR was down 40%!

 

[KARFA]

The actual figure was 225,584. LHR was down 40%!

yes, but bear in mind the recent reduction on schedule. last march there were 176 flights, this march about 90. the drop was unfortunately expected.

 

[a300boy]

I wonder how long before it is dropped !
The slot sitter scenario we were made aware of seems to be coming to fruition.

 

[Finger66]

My guess is end of this coming winter so March 2019. Any advance on that anyone? Reckon they will need the remaining slots for other S19 routes at LHR. Hope I am wrong though......

 

[a300boy]

Me too !

 

[AirBingley]

April figures have appeared on the CAA's website and LBA is down 9% to 299,961 presumably due to the timing of Easter. Passengers rolling year are 4,018,442 up 7.2%.

 

[lbaspotter]

How have we manage to be down 9% on the monthly figure but up 7. 2% on the year rolling total?

 

[AirBingley]

Interestingly LHR down only 41% but obviously the flights were cut by at least 50% so with 86 rotations and 8,143 passengers I make that 95 pax per sector flown - with 132 seats available (assuming 12 blocked for club) this gives a load factor of 70% which must be getting more towards what BA consider reasonable. Only 86 pax per sector flown in April 2017 - LF 65%.

 

[KARFA]

Interestingly LHR down only 41% but obviously the flights were cut by at least 50% so with 86 rotations and 8,143 passengers I make that 95 pax per sector flown - with 132 seats available (assuming 12 blocked for club) this gives a load factor of 70% which must be getting more towards what BA consider reasonable. Only 86 pax per sector flown in April 2017 - LF 65%.

42 rotations flown in April so 84 flights. For the figures I come up with I tend to assume 5 rows of CE so that brings a 143 seat A319 down to 133 seats per flight. Based on that I get 73% which is a matching high with the peak September month in 2017 and 2016. It's good, but it would be more secure if it gets in to the 80%+ range.

Certainly the way the figures are going this year the load across the whole of 2018 should hopefully be above 70%.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

How have we manage to be down 9% on the monthly figure but up 7. 2% on the year rolling total?

April 2017's figures step out of the rolling 12-month total to be replaced by those of April 2018. The difference is added to or (in this case) subtracted from the previous 12-month rolling total.

In April 2017 LBA's rolling total was 3,749,300. In April 2018 it was 4,018,142 which is 269,142 (or nearly 7.2%) more.

 

[White Heather]

May passenger figures at LBA are also marginally down compared to 2017, with a total of 389,515 passing through, compared to 398,392 last year. That is a reduction of 2.23%, which is surprisingly low considering the loss of around 30 Monarch movements per week, around 10 BA movements per week, plus reduced services on Newquay and Guernsey too. Clearly these losses have to some degree been offset by the increased offering from Jet2. At today's Consultative Meeting, one member expressed concern over the drop in passengers and asked if this was the start of a trend, or just a blip. Airport management were very strong in the view it was only a blip and the future was an upward trend in passengers.
Total passengers for April and May are now 690,032 compared to 729,255 for the same period in 2017.

 

[Bigman]

Not quite so bad for May, but still down 2.3% with 388,988. Rolling year down to 4,009,303 so still just above the 4M mark.

 

[White Heather]

Not sure why there is a slight difference between the CAA figures quoted by Bigman and the figures provided to me by LBA themselves? The difference is small, (527 less pax in the CAA figures) but they should be the same.