CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

This summer was always going to be a trial for CWL. TOM is 2 x 738s this summer compared with 1 738 and 1 757 last summer and Thomas Cook is a 320 instead of the 321 of summer 2013, so a considerable number of seats have been lost each summer month in the context of CWL's relatively small overall capacity.

Furthermore, CityJet took over EDI, GLA and Paris this year whereas the better known Flybe with larger aircraft operated these routes last summer. CityJet is struggling to an extent to make itself known amongst CWL passengers.

Summer 2013 also saw a very impressive percentage rise because the annual throughput had dropped to below 1 mppa at the beginning of 2013, so the percentage rise did not equate to that many extra bodies.

The politicians who run CWL, and they do despite lip service to providing an arm's length airport company staffed by professionals who know what they are doing and would be best left to do it without political interference, cannot afford to lose face by admitting that this summer is and was always going to be somewhat of a damp squib after summer 2013.

CWL desperately needs that low cost airline to step in and bring in a few hundred thousand punters a year (for starters) but that's been the case since bmi baby began to lose interest and eventually pulled out. Vueling is only a fairly thin presence on the main sun routes. Ryanair is the hope for many connected with CWL but there is obviously a lot of uncertainty about how much presence FR will introduce.

There is also the possibility of APD being devolved to Wales if Scotland gets the power. Should that happen BRS will be disadvantaged with public money winning out over private.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

September 2014

CAA stats, as expected, show that passenger numbers were down again this month. 123,328 passengers used the terminal a drop of 7.1% on September 2013. Atms were actually up 3% which does not bode well with a 7.1% passenger drop but a lot were probably NATO summit related and wouldn't be expected to be carrying lots of passengers.

The rolling 12-month total was 1,049,174, up just 0.6% on a year ago which does mean that last year's gains have now almost been wiped out but something like this was expected this year (if not admitted by the politicians) given the drop in available seats throughout the summer across a number of airlines

 

[alphagolf]

September 2014

CAA stats, as expected, show that passenger numbers were down again this month. 123,328 passengers used the terminal a drop of 7.1% on September 2013. Atms were actually up 3% which does not bode well with a 7.1% passenger drop but a lot were probably NATO summit related and wouldn't be expected to be carrying lots of passengers.

The rolling 12-month total was 1,049,174, up just 0.6% on a year ago which does mean that last year's gains have now almost been wiped out but something like this was expected this year (if not admitted by the politicians) given the drop in available seats throughout the summer across a number of airlines

Have the Welsh Assembly politician's and the new MD of Cardiff Airport completely lost the plot in there efforts to place a positive spin on yet another big fall in passenger numbers for September................

Reported in WalesOnline

We were expecting this slight dip in passengers – it has been caused by airline fleet changes which are not unusual in the industry.

"Slight dip", No matter what spin they put on it another couple of months of decline will see Cardiff back at square one, with £52 million pounds of welsh taxpayers money showing absolutely nothing.

A perfect example of the Welsh Assembly not working, the sooner Cardiff is returned to the private sector the better.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It seems that airport and airline senior staff are well versed in spin. The CWL MD failed to mention that there have been passengers drops each month this summer. The impression given was that the glitch was September only.

She also pointed out that Geneva would be operating this winter but failed to say that the other three ski routes of last winter have been axed.

I'm not really having a go at her. I'm sure all airport executives anywhere would attempt to put gloss on negative circumstances. Most of the local public in an airport's catchment have little knowledge and little interest in the industry and would take such comments at face value.

In another BRS thread the APD devolution is in the news again with Robert Sinclair banging the drum about the advantage CWL would enjoy if the Wales goverment could set its APD rates, so that might be a positive for CWL if it comes about.

 

[Aviador]

I would say people are much harder up than they were 10 years ago pre the financial slump. These days wages are being pegged down; more and more full-time positions are being replaced with part-time and temporary work. This all means fewer people have the money to travel abroad than before.

The APD has only exacerbated the situation for airports making it much harder for them to recover to pre recession levels. The APD is hurting the economy. We keep being told how important it is for us to have more runways in the South East and the positive impact it will have on the economy nationally. If the politicians realise the positive impact airports can have then why not help all airports by releasing them from this draconian tax.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The Great Britain APD is punitive without a doubt and is losing the UK some market share in intercontinental travel. The UK government recognised and tacitly accepted this with Northern Ireland in allowing them to have more flexibility with APD there as BFS (in particular) was losing out to a foreign state (The Republic of Ireland).

Allowing different rates of APD in mainland UK is trickier, controversial and divisive as one UK airport could be adversely affected by another's lower rate, unlike the Northern Ireland situation.

I can understand and empathise with CWL's predicament. It's obvious that its market is not sufficiently robust or large enough to compete on purely commercial terms with the likes of BRS and BHX, but whether lower or nil rate APD would make such a difference to it is debatable.

In the past we've heard such things as the reopening of the Vale of Glamorgan railway line, bmi baby's arrival, the purchase of CWL by the state cited as the catalyst for the resurgence of the airport. Apart from bmi baby which did bring about a welcome and substantial uplift for a time we are still waiting for the others to have an effect. Now the perceived saviour is devolved APD. If it happens we shall have to wait to see if it works.

I suspect that the BRS CEO is more concerned with long haul where a low or nil rate at CWL could impact significantly on any BRS hopes for the reinstatement of such routes. A family of four would save several hundred pounds on a transatlantic journey, always assuming of course that an airline passed on all or most of the APD saving.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats October 2014

92,323 passengers used the airport in October down 7.8% on October 2013. Atms were down 2.7%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,041,006, down 0.3% on a year ago.

This means that all last year's gains have been wiped out but this was anticipated earlier in the year, mainly because of the loss of seats through the use of smaller aircraft on a number of routes.

 

[Aviador]

Having a closer look does anybody have any figures for the routes Vueling is serving from CWL?

 

[superking]

Alicante 4244 passengers average load 163 load factor 90.5%

Malaga 4104 passengers average load 158 load factor 87.8%

Palma 1634 passengers average load 117 load factor 65.0%

Barcelona 1946 passengers average load 122 load factor 67.8%

vueling.
these were the most up to date numbers i could find, that was september.
thanks to numbers from slf from wales air forum

 

[Em0866]

In my opinion the BCN route may have better loads if they had better timings. As it was last year, this year was a flight on Friday and one on Sunday. For a weekend break or business to a lesser extent this could be improved. A Monday and a Friday flight would be much better and would give those travelling for leisure the choice of a Friday to Monday stay or Monday to Friday. I have never understood why they have the flight times that they have.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I

n my opinion the BCN route may have better loads if they had better timings. As it was last year, this year was a flight on Friday and one on Sunday. For a weekend break or business to a lesser extent this could be improved. A Monday and a Friday flight would be much better and would give those travelling for leisure the choice of a Friday to Monday stay or Monday to Friday. I have never understood why they have the flight times that they have.

It's possibly down to aircraft utilisation. Mondays are usually busy days for European airlines and Vueling might judge that the aircraft is better used on high yielding business routes.

BCN is a popular route and it ought to have done better in terms of loads. TOM and then bmi baby tried it in consecutive summers 7-8 years ago with the aid of the then Wales Route Development Fund but it didn't work out with both airlines giving up after one season each.

 

[Em0866]

I take on board what you are saying, and it is probably down to utilisation of aircraft and aircraft being used on higher yielding routes. I hope you get what I mean though....it doesn't have to be Friday and Monday flights....Tuesday and Saturday or Wednesday and Sunday even.

Of course it could be that it is difficult to compete on that route with BRS with better and more frequent flights is something to do with that.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I do indeed take the point and Friday and Sunday rotations are not likely to see too many weekend punters. If Ryanair does expand at CWL BCN might be a route it would try. It would almost certainly attract more passengers than Vueling because it's much better known in the UK from where the majority of passengers emanate.

I've just returned from Barcelona (with easyJet) and there is no doubting that it's a popular leisure destination, with business usage as well.

 

[Em0866]

I think it would be hard to try to compete with BRS on the BCN route....but never say never as stranger things have happened.
I flew back from AGP last Sunday but opted for BRS with EZY as the return flight with Vueling was too early in the morning. The price of the flight was cheaper by a tad from CWL but in the end I went with EZY due to better flight times. That was the only reason

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats November 2014

48,855 passengers used the terminal in November, down 18.5% on November 2013. Atms were down14.9%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,029,888, down 1.9% on a year ago.

No surprise with the reduced Vueling service and CityJet pulling out of GLA even though the weekly Ryanair to Tenerife helped to reduce 'losses' a bit.

After 2013's encouragement 2014 has turned out to be extremely disappointing hut anticipated nevertheless because of CityJet's, Thomas Cook's and Thomson's smaller aircraft (compared with 2013) in the main.

 

[Em0866]

Just how much worse can it get? This is all very depressing and I don't see (at the moment) how or if things will improve. Lots of talk on another forum on a possible announcement in the next few weeks but those at CWL should (and probably are) working hard to try and get more good new route/airline news. I don't understand how most UK airports are showing increases and CWL seems to be going against the trend.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Just how much worse can it get? This is all very depressing and I don't see (at the moment) how or if things will improve. Lots of talk on another forum on a possible announcement in the next few weeks but those at CWL should (and probably are) working hard to try and get more good new route/airline news. I don't understand how most UK airports are showing increases and CWL seems to be going against the trend.

There are reasons specific to CWL as I mentioned in my previous post. Sitting cheek by jowl with an airport that is increasing its own routes and passenger numbers year after year is obviously not something that helps either.

I still believe that CWL will see a noticeable improvement next year. Links seems certain to put in a couple of new routes or so now it holds the Anglesey PSO route contract, although because of the size of its aircraft (19 seaters) that in itself will not have a great effect on overall passenger numbers but it will help a bit.

With the airport's new route fund provided by the WG it seems inconceivable that a larger airline (than Links) won't take the bait. It just depends how large a fish in terms of new routes any such airline will turn out to be. Looking beyond next year there is also a possibility (perhaps stronger than that) that Wales will find APD devolved to its own assembly government. That would mean the airport owner setting its own APD rate. What airport owner would not like that?

 

[Em0866]

It'll be interesting to see how this fund will improve things and also who would be interested too. There would be, I would imagine, certain stipulations when a route funded by this pot of money, which would require an airline to run a route over a specific amount of time?

I think by seeing announcements with new routes from BRS (which is great to have even more choice from there) I can't help feeling that CWL are just not quick enough to try to have some regular good news. The MCO flights are great as one offs, but we need to have a more regular flights like this one.

I guess I should be more patient, but after reading the other forum (which I find quite negative) I start to get doubts.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CWL were unlucky (with hindsight) in having bmi baby as their major low cost operator a decade ago when regional airports were beginning to grow like Topsy. baby were fine for a few years but gradually, and the recession and an airport owner that seemingly didn't want to be there didn't help, began to lose interest in CWL. By then the other major low cost airlines were settled in elsewhere.

Had CWL bowed to Ryanair's pressure in 2006 re charges who knows what that might have led to? Instead Ryanair decided to cross the Severn (where they actually already had a slightly larger presence than at CWL) and set themselves up at BRS in a fairly meaningful way despite easyJet already ruling the roost there.

If Ryanair can be persuaded to operate a few more routes at CWL, and most would probably be summer sun and Canaries year-round which might cause Vueling some problems with the former, then other carriers might take a serious look as well.

The next twelve months ought to be interesting times for CWL and not in a negative way.

 

[Em0866]

Yes there is a thought of what may have been if.....things may have been different now.

Anyway, we shall see what the New Year brings with the hope of better things to come. It will be interesting to see what Vueling do, and also Ryanair too....or even a new operator. The airport can only go up from now on. Here's hoping