Flybe

[David_itl]

Not if IAG get hold of them. Imo they'd shut them down at best they'd merge them with Cityflyer and base a few e jets at MAN and LHR.

There's a pilot scope clause that precludes Cityflyer operating out of LHR (and LGW!) so any IAG deal would probably mean Flybe still operating as a separate airline so as to not upset the pilot unions. The benefit will be having a lot more clout in renegotiating lease deals - would a lessor really want to anger IAG? I imagine it's a lot tougher for Flybe to do it on their own.

 

[KARFA]

Not if IAG get hold of them. Imo they'd shut them down at best they'd merge them with Cityflyer and base a few e jets at MAN and LHR.

I doubt IAG are really interested. It really is of little value feeding traffic to BA at LHR. BA has shown little interest running regional routes in to Europe apart from the dabble by CityFlyer, and it's not like BE has every looked particularly profitable.

EDIT: just to add the Telegraph article doesn't have any actual detail that connects IAG with BE. The only connection seems to be "industry experts" think it could happen.

 

[Jerry]

If BE was profitable it wouldn’t be in this position would it?....Yet I keep wondering why they are not making money....look at the amount of internal flights they have from regional airports like LBA....Donny would be up the s**t creek without them as would Exeter, Southampton, Belfast and Cardiff to name a few.
I really hope something positive comes out of this rather than another UK airline going to the wall.

It's the E195 leases and bad management from the past and i wouldn't be surprised if many of their routes although profitable are borderline profitable and on lot of their routes their biggest competition is the train network and that is getting quicker and i also feel many are turned off by the turboprops they use thinking they are unsafe and see them as a poor alternative to the likes of Easyjet, BA and Ryanair. As an airline they've never really set down what they are and stuck with it, they change CEO and each has a different vision you just have to look at the livery changes with that. Hopefully who ever buys them will turn them around and getting them growing and profitable again.

 

[David_itl]

The problem is twofold: The EMB195 lease and APD.

The EMB195 was plainly not good business and they've ended up with large leasing costs. Easing them out means more money being retained.

For them to compete with rail travel where it's a wash between flying + going through airport processing to your destination and rail travel, they need to be broadly competitively priced. Then for each adult passenger, take £13 away from the ticket price for APD going to the government. All of a sudden, there's a swathe of borderline profitable domestic routes

Worst case scenario with each aircraft with 100% loads and adult passengers only:

You are talking up to £1000 less revenue per service. If 1 aircraft is doing an average 3 return sectors each weekday, it's potentially £6.000 per day less in revenue or £1.5 million a year per aircraft. Multiply that by 70 aircraft and it's £105 million more in your coffers.

The last financial year saw them report 75% loads.

For the sake of argument, I will say 60% for adult and 15% children. Using the 6 sector day per the above, it's £611 per flight going to the government or £3600 a weekday. On an annual basis, it's £0.9 million for 1 aircraft or £63.5 million a year for the whole fleet.

Now I'm sure Flybe would much prefer to hold onto that money!

 

[a300boy]

I did it with Jet 2 as it was early departure to Düsseldorf one morning and a tea time departure the following day back to Leeds.
The lunch time operation once a day is not as good for me anyway and midweek is my preferred option.

 

[Jerry]

The EMB195 was plainly not good business and they've ended up with large leasing costs.

I read somewhere that the leases of the E195 are the same as an airline would get for an A320.

 

[David_itl]

Now that is shocking. To make up those extra costs you can only imagine them having to do 8 flights a day or what they ended up doing in cutting deals with airports or seeking PSOs, neither of which is ideal as any profit motivated airline would not need to seek long term airport guarantees; you might base an aircraft or 2 at an airport and expect medium to large losses in year 1, small to medium losses in year 2 but from year 3 onward, breakeven or better.

 

[KARFA]

If BE was profitable it wouldn’t be in this position would it?....Yet I keep wondering why they are not making money....look at the amount of internal flights they have from regional airports like LBA....Donny would be up the s**t creek without them as would Exeter, Southampton, Belfast and Cardiff to name a few.
I really hope something positive comes out of this rather than another UK airline going to the wall.

VS/DL buyout could be positive. Is there any UK regional airline over the last 20 years which has consistently been profitable? Perhaps airlines models like BE just aren’t sustainable.

 

[lbaspotter]

Looks like British Airways owner IAG has officially joined the race to buy Flybe

https://news.sky.com/story/flybe-boosted-by-report-of-ba-owner-interest-11564094

 

[Bigman]

Now there's an idea. 4 x daily ABZ-LBA-LHR using a DH8 instead of a once-a-day BA A319. That would be using existing ABZ-LHR slots, so no problems there. That would massively increase connectivity..plus we would get our ABZ back. Right, back to sleep!!!

 

[paully]

I not sure about the bidding war bit either, apart from the fevered imagination of hacks..

 

[rollo]

The article does not make sense as it says that Flybe canceled the contract when in fact its the other way round as the text of the piece confirms later on Flybe need to be careful as Greybull are the ultimate owner of MAEL and have deep pockets they are not to be messed with like most investment groups its all about the dosh.

 

[Tarn Spotter]

Flybe cancelled the contract as they were unwilling to agree to MAEL new payment terms, MAEL would have continued with the contract if payment made in advance, therefore, true to say FLYBE cancelled.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flybe-lands-in-engine-row-rrbrtbmm6

 

[Bigman]

I thought that FlyBe already operated the Summer Innsbruck charter?? (refer to YEP today).

 

[White Heather]

I thought that FlyBe already operated the Summer Innsbruck charter?? (refer to YEP today).

They do. Just ignore the YEP. They rarely get new news right and even manage to publicise old news and get that wrong too. Yesterday they published the 6 routes lost from Tui and didn't include Menorca, which has also gone. Pretty typical.

 

[Finger66]

Yule tide Encourages Pillocks

 

[AirBingley]

Looks like there is still the potential to see quite a bit more red at LBA
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-f...keover-talks-with-flybe-ongoing-idUKKBN1OI0K6

 

[Bigman]

If this did go through, can anyone actually see Virgin being bothered about LBA? They are only bothered about LHR/LGW/MAN. The only hope could perhaps be that if they got the ABZ-LHR slots, they could drop into LBA on the way, which would not only give us our ABZ back, but we would get a good frequency LHR service with full connections to Virgin/Delta.

 

[AirBingley]

Possibly but LBA management have confirmed that Flybe services in general are doing well so I suspect they have more to worry about. I think it would be more of a concern for DSA where the base is small and ready for consolidation - as you say possible MAN but I'm sure LBA management will be looking to try to seize the opportunity also. After all, Virgin are proposing to buy a regional airline!

 

[Bigman]

According to the ABZ website, their weekday FlyBe flights arrive at LHR at 08:45, 17:05 and 19:20, which are pretty good for business and connections in my book. Naturally, they would need to leave earlier from ABZ if they could be dropped into LBA, but perhaps this could be a candidate for an ER195, which would reduce the flight times and provide bigger capacity on all sectors. Right… that’s my Xmas wish list finished!!