Route Development & Rumours

[Ray Finkle]

There will be things happening in 2019 but with BHX haemorrhaging airlines and routes for the last 18 months it feels as if they are now so far behind it could take many years to catch up. Lets hope that things don't get worse before they get better.

I think we have to look further into the logistics of an airline starting up a new route.
Whilst negotiations with an airport are an important step, that is not the end of the matter.
Airlines simply don't have aircraft and crew sitting about waiting for a new route to be started in order to use these resources.
So, for a new route to be launched, either new aircraft and crew have to be obtained or a current route has to be culled. Therefore the potential of a new route has to be costed against poorest performing current routes, or the cost of purchasing new aircraft and recruting and training new staff.
Is it worth buying one new aircraft (including crewing costs), or do you wait until you have several desirable new routes, when you can negotiate a better deal by purchasing several new aircraft?
Along with all of the above, an airline will be constantly reviewing costs and trying to negotiate the cheapest deal from an airport.
I don't work in aviation, so the above are only my thoughts.

Kevin

Excellent points

A new long haul route is a huge financial commitment and not something undertaken lightly.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Ray and all, totally agree with what Ray is saying, birmingham airport management now needs to wake up and buck up there ideas because they seem not bothered about trying to keep not just existing airlines, do deals to keep airlines, otherwise they are going to end up with nothing. There's never been an announcement to confirm a new boss, just an acting MD who simply has no ideas at all, just excuses which doesn't give the airport any positive image at all.. AndyC

 

[jfy1999]

I think we have to look further into the logistics of an airline starting up a new route.
Whilst negotiations with an airport are an important step, that is not the end of the matter.
Airlines simply don't have aircraft and crew sitting about waiting for a new route to be started in order to use these resources.
So, for a new route to be launched, either new aircraft and crew have to be obtained or a current route has to be culled. Therefore the potential of a new route has to be costed against poorest performing current routes, or the cost of purchasing new aircraft and recruting and training new staff.
Is it worth buying one new aircraft (including crewing costs), or do you wait until you have several desirable new routes, when you can negotiate a better deal by purchasing several new aircraft?
Along with all of the above, an airline will be constantly reviewing costs and trying to negotiate the cheapest deal from an airport.
I don't work in aviation, so the above are only my thoughts.

Kevin

Also, worth noting that even if we do secure a Cathay service, Cathay have been willing to ditch services to larger airports than BHX that didn't meet their expectations for whatever reason (Dusseldorf and Copenhagen, with the latter only lasting a few months!)

 

[davecleaver777]

As HSBC have moved to Brum and enquiring about a HK service, I hope they don't offer help for funding the flight. I would want a BHX-HKG done on its own merits. Anything else is a bonus

 

[58terminus]

Also, worth noting that even if we do secure a Cathay service, Cathay have been willing to ditch services to larger airports than BHX that didn't meet their expectations for whatever reason (Dusseldorf and Copenhagen, with the latter only lasting a few months!)

Not sure about the size of an airport being that rellevent. 2 daily A380 to Dubai seems to back this up.
Also examples like Shannons 6 or so daily flights to N.America in the summer and little else.
If the demand is there it does not take years to negotiate if both sides are serious..

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there davecleaver777, I understand and agree what your saying about HSBC trying to get direct flights from Birmingham airport to hong Kong, but just think if they were to get an agreement with either Cathy Pacific or Hong-Kong airlines quicker than Birmingham airport route development and management team, then I would just show the weakness and that bhx haven't got the balls to do it, where as someone has, then this success by HSBC would show how cheap, shoddy and not having the initiative to go out and get this massive route that bhx management are, and fair play to hsbc in showing bhx how its done... AndyC

 

[Jerry]

then I would just show the weakness and that bhx haven't got the balls to do it,

It would be a case BHX getting extra help. Having HSBC lobbying on the airports behalf would be a good thing but it doesn't neccesarily mean BHX can't lobby on their own. It's just many voices are better than just one.

 

[David_itl]

Getting HSBC to underpin a Hong Kong service with a revenue guarantee for a limited time (perhaps 2 years tops) would be the best way to get the route statted and allow it time to mature so that the guarantee wouldn't be needed. However, we would need to know the regularity of visits to Hong Kong by the HSBC executives in Birmingham.... if they are only going over once or twice a week and there are 2 or 3 of them, then it's not a compelling case to sell to CX. Now if BHX were to talk with GVA about launching a joint initiative to attract them. that would be better. Of course, it's not ideal that it's a one-stop route for BHX but it allows CX to check passenger flows and split operations at an appropriate time. Whether CX could get rights to operate GVA-BHX is something that needs to be checked but would also help with the overall performance of the route.

 

[JENNYJET]

One also has to keep in mind ICAO that agency governed by the United Nations and those numerous treaties currently in force.

There has to be a vacant route and then the necessary airport slots and ATC capacity to enable a service to operate safely and to the required standard.

However, there needs to be two willing parties as a minimum to facilitate a route not to mention any economic considerations.


Getting HK may be easier than Dulles or SEATAC. I would like all of them because traveling to LHR , nice place for me and others, is a road trip that may kill me, seemingly is the preferred route. This may be political rather than consumer lead but darn it, it is complicated.

 

[Brum X]

Says it all really how dead BHX is Re: Route Development when the Dried Fruit BHX page hasnt been updated since the 28th Nov 2018

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Ray and all, so are there any latest new routes being announced yet, because if not, then we need to know what the route development team are up to, plus if other forum members are forecasting or predicting maybe 13 and half million passengers for 2019, then we need to know where they are coming from, is this further expansion from jet2 or who else that is going to help jet2 fill monarchs demise. Because bhx can't leave it up to jet2 to carry the torch of expansion, it has to come from either an existing carrier or a new unknown that hasn't been announced by bhx... AndyC

 

[Ray Finkle]

Things are happening and it's definitely a case of when not if, unfortunately non of us know the 'when' as yet

 

[JENNYJET]

In my current state of health, I do so wish it to be the when because the .."if"..is of little use to me.

I am wonderous of the possibility of the airport bigwigs tempting Mayor Street to not bother seeking re-election and instead becoming CEO at BHX? Clearly there is a need for this energetic chap to drive the business forward before BHX becomes irrelevant within the UK market and the global market as a reason for existence!!

Thank you Sir Raymond for something to dream about.

 

[jfy1999]

Hi Ray, are those things that are due to happen things we've already heard being rumoured or is there anything new?

Also, are you in contact with someone on the route development team? Just curious

 

[IanFarquharson]

Ray has some good contacts !

The RD team are travelling a lot lately and this hopefully lead to some new routes being announced

 

[GliderPilot]

Can somebody pleeeeeeeaaaaasssseeeee drop some hints? I remember that is what used to make this forum light up. I used to have to check multiple times a day to ensure I didn't miss anything!

 

[IanFarquharson]

Rumours of both eastbound & westbound long hauls

 

[GliderPilot]

Exciting

 

[thunderchild]

Rumours of both eastbound & westbound long hauls

Glad you said long haul as I was thinking VLM to Waterford and Antwerp!

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Ray and all, regarding these rumours of eastbound and Westbound long haul flights, are they from an existing, new or returning airline do you have any idea at all.. AndyC