Birmingham Airport - General Thread

[Ray Finkle]

Great news about the Canaries

Lets hope that the holiday companies can start getting some kind of revenue stream going throughout the winter.

 

[JENNYJET]

No surprise, UK is an infected territory and that is undeniable, you may hate me for this but a total global shutdown of civil air transport might be necessary to stop the virus, and local shutdowns where necessary.

If world government s treated Coronavirus and Covid19 in particular the same way Smallpox was, then vaccines would be unnecessary. My personal thoughts of course carry no weight.

 

[Coathanger16]

total global shutdown of civil air transport

If that were to happen, I can almost guarantee there would just be 1 airline left in the UK - and it would be nationalised.

If it's not already clear, pursuing a course of continual lockdowns & shutdowns will devastate the economy beyond recognition.

Large parts of the hospitality sector have said they won't survive a second lockdown. International travel would be off limits to most. Cinemas and theatres would face permanent closure. Taxes are already going to go up massively and/or for decades to come to pay off the debt we've already accumulated. Millions out of work - paying less tax and claiming more on benefits - will worsen that.

The government has said that a testing on arrival regime would only detect 7% of cases. An independent report (albeit commissioned by the aviation industry) has investigated the work done by Public Health England in coming up with this figure. Turns out the 7% assumes that anyone who at the point of departure to come to the uk could test positive (i.e. had enough of the virus in their system) wouldn't travel. The 7% then comes from how many people will become detectable DURING the flight. The independent report estimates a more realistic figure would be 63% of cases being identified.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/10/22/testing-on-arrival-would-catch-the-vast-majority-of-cases/

Jenny I appreciate your medical state likely makes you more vulnerable to Covid, however consider your current situation and daily/weekly routine. If all under 50's were permitted to return to normal, albeit continuing the use of face masks and regular hand sanitising, how would your routine change?

 

[JENNYJET]

If under 50's carried on as pre Covid, I would probably NEVER step out of my home again except in a black ambulance. My concern was stopping the virus and the strong possibility that it continues to be imported by visitors to and from countries travelling by air transport.

To be honest, I cannot trust people enough to observe mask wearing and hand sanitizing religiously, it is human nature to cut corners if a gain is the result.

I understand that I no longer have a stake in the real world as it is a dangerous place for me to live but I am mindful of families struggles dealing with a way of life that I have become accustomed and colours my personal outlook upon life.

I do not set out to irritate or offend but if that is what occurs, I offer unreserved apologies.

 

[Coathanger16]

I see on the MAN thread the Aer Lingus have applied for slots to fly to the USA from MAN for next summer (JFK, BOS, ORD & MCO being rumoured; 2x A321LR and 2x A330).

Whilst great for MAN, anyone else get the feeling of "FFS, there are places in the UK besides London & Manchester"?

And before anyone comes out with the old line of "well clearly there's not enough demand from BHX", although I accept that in some markets like Boston or Chicago, I can't accept that we only have demand for 18,000 passengers a year to Orlando - less than a fifth the number Glasgow sees and about the same that Belfast sees.

What is is that the likes of Emirates & Qatar can see in places outside of London/Manchester that other airlines can't?

 

[Jerry]

Whilst great for MAN, anyone else get the feeling of "FFS, there are places in the UK besides London & Manchester"?

It looks like IAG want to fill the Thomas Cook gap while putting pressure on the Virgin Atlantic. Unfortunately for BHX it doesn't have that gap to be filled and competition to be kept in check.

 

[Coathanger16]

It looks like IAG want to fill the Thomas Cook gap while putting pressure on the Virgin Atlantic. Unfortunately for BHX it doesn't have that gap to be filled and competition to be kept in check.

Indeed - it has no competition to compete against directly! Surely an airlines dream scenario?

 

[Jerry]

Indeed - it has no competition to compete against directly! Surely an airlines dream scenario?

It doesn't look like it in this situation.

 

[rollo]

The problem we have at BHX is that we do indeed fill the gap and the airlines know people will travel up the M6 or down the M40 as Birmingham is smack between Manchester and London which nobody can do anything about.

The lack of capacity to Orlando in particular is a prime example as stated coathanger additionally American operated daily to Chicago for around 10 years with 767s and Continental to Newark for something like 20 years with 757 twice daily for a short while and for a time with the DC10.

How things have changed, Nothing to do with the virus

 

[Coathanger16]

The problem we have at BHX is that we do indeed fill the gap and the airlines know people will travel up the M6 or down the M40 as Birmingham is smack between Manchester and London which nobody can do anything about.

Glass half empty - Birmingham is in the middle of Manchester and London, passengers go up to MAN or down to LHR/LGW.

Glass half full - Birmingham is in the middle of the country, airlines only have to fly from one airport (BHX) instead of two (LHR/MAN).

Unfortunately, the latter will never happen.

The lack of capacity to Orlando in particular is a prime example as stated coathanger additionally American operated daily to Chicago for around 10 years with 767s and Continental to Newark for something like 20 years with 757 twice daily for a short while and for a time with the DC10.

Indeed - 90% of passengers from the UK to Orlando fly through either Gatwick (~60%) and Manchester (~30%).

For a destination that see's 1.7 million passengers a year from the UK, you'd have thought the countries second biggest city would see more than 18,000 passengers a year - just 1% of the UK total!

The A321NEO/LR/XLR is the perfect aircraft to serve the BHX TATL market. American, Delta, United and JetBlue all have orders for some - lets hope at least 1 plugs the BHX gap.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Sadly airlines tend to flock together often preferring to compete at source.

I've lost count of the number of times I've posted on here about someone I know booking a trip to Florida but not from BHX. In my office we had four people due to travel to the USA this year (obviously they didn't go), three to Florida with two of those going from MAN and one from LGW and the other heading to NY from LHR. Only one of those even took the time to look at BHX and as usual it was way more expensive. One individual has been going to Florida for a number of years and said that she is so used to using MAN now that she just books it.

It's a bit of a chicken and egg scenario. Unless you have the right airline with the right frequencies at a competitive price people will just go elsewhere, yet if the airlines see passengers happy to travel to them why go to the cost of setting up another base. Purely anecdotal evidence I know but for many people I speak to LHR still seems to be the default airport for long haul travel, I've spoken to plenty who even use Emirates from there.

Unless people can be persuaded to pay often significantly more money for an increased journey time through a connection the 'passenger flown data' will not be captured making it harder to state your case for something direct. That said there should be enough historical data for the likes of NYC and YYZ.

Paul Kehoe once said that they were trying to change human behaviour and that is very difficult to do.

The A321NEO/LR/XLR is the perfect aircraft to serve the BHX TATL market. American, Delta, United and JetBlue all have orders for some - lets hope at least 1 plugs the BHX gap.

JetBlue must be the main target out of those but even they've said that they want London first.

 

[Wrightfly73]

Birmingham will get a direct link with New York, it is just a case of waiting for the right airline to come along.

There are many airlines which fly/previously flown uniquely from Birmingham so it is hugely inappropriate to get into a Manchester Vs. Birmingham discussion and say that airlines always will pick Manchester as likewise passengers going up to Manchester or down to London would travel to Birmingham if the price and offering was right.

Birmingham is the UKs second largest city and for the right airline that will be a draw in itself and with the transport connections this will also bring pax from surrounding cities.

What a lot of people forget is that Birmingham had a hugely popular link with New York for 20 years and the other trans con services were also very successful. TUIs orlando flights are also successful.

IAG are increasingly becoming more focused on London Heathrow and Manchester but this is simply part of a dog fight with Virgin Atlantic, there is only so much capacity required so we will see what happens there.

Birmingham has done just fine without most of IAG for years and will continue to be fine without it.

Birmingham needs to look to JetBlue & WestJet for future transatlantic connections.

Birmingham is a hugely successful home for a number of airlines and the commonwealth games and redevelopment of the city will only improve the airports performance.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Can't argue with the positivity but it seems to be about waiting for the right airline to come along, something which we have been doing for a very long time. We've had everyone from BMIR to Norwegian arrive with great promise but most have gone again in no time at all (sometimes out of the airports hands). Ryanair expanded, then contracted and remain pretty stagnant unless some competition arrives. Sadly Monarch were starting to look like the airline we all desperately want but just as they began showing real promise they went bust. For the future it seems as if Wizz could be most likely to do something and as great as that would be are they going to give us some of the routes left empty after Flybe? I have my doubts.

It's a shame that Primera went the way that it did because the reviews from those who got to travel with them looked encouraging. Of course we'll never know if United were already on the way out and BHX turned to Primera or whether their arrival actually saw United off. The same could also be asked of Icelandair who offered some valuable connections to North America. A proud history is all well and good but kind of pointless if you are now left with nothing and any replacement looking several years away.

I must point out that I don't include Jet2 in this. It doesn't need saying what they have done for Birmingham but they have a specific leisure focussed target market.

 

[Nethercote2019]

I remember Mr Kehoe saying in an interview that people from the midlands catchment area are more happy to travel to another region to catch a flight than than people from other areas & he said it was 1of the things he didn’t understand & he said it included flights to many places where flights were available from .... of course this could be more to do with price.

 

[Brum X]

It looks like IAG want to fill the Thomas Cook gap while putting pressure on the Virgin Atlantic. Unfortunately for BHX it doesn't have that gap to be filled and competition to be kept in check.

I am sure Jeremy is feeling the same, FFS there is other airports in the south west of the uk other than BRS

 

[Jerry]

I am sure Jeremy is feeling the same, FFS there is other airports in the south west of the uk other than BRS

Unfortunately some airlines don't seem to realise that! The conversation over BHX losing out to MAN and LHR does sound sadly familiar!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I am sure Jeremy is feeling the same, FFS there is other airports in the south west of the uk other than BRS

Unfortunately some airlines don't seem to realise that! The conversation over BHX losing out to MAN and LHR does sound sadly familiar!

And it's such a small airport that if you drove past and blinked you'd miss it. That's if you could see it through the hilltop mist in the first place.

I don't know why airlines seem to head to BS48 unless it's about making money.

 

[JENNYJET]

Rather than ask if it is the location of BHX, perhaps the airport is not up to transatlantic standards? Terminal space, ground services, charges and fees? Is it that the owners have or are strangling future growth? Or perhaps frightened of Greta and what her supporters could get up to?

Airlines pull out for a reason and probably talk amongst themselves and if BHX are notoriously difficult to deal with, new carriers will stay away and I believe not having the national flag carrier doesn't help matters.

 

[Matt995]

Rather than ask if it is the location of BHX, perhaps the airport is not up to transatlantic standards? Terminal space, ground services, charges and fees? Is it that the owners have or are strangling future growth? Or perhaps frightened of Greta and what her supporters could get up to?

Airlines pull out for a reason and probably talk amongst themselves and if BHX are notoriously difficult to deal with, new carriers will stay away and I believe not having the national flag carrier doesn't help matters.

I certainly think that charges and fees have a lot to do with it, and when you look at the airlines that flew transatlantic services, BA couldn't make it work, AA tried twice and pulled out, US Airways had a short season before pulling out, Primera too, and even United eventually left, so why would any other airline remotely think they could make it work?

My worry about Birmingham, is once the pandemic is over, will the share holders/local councils etc. and even the airport's management themselves have to increase charges/fees/costs to try and recoup back the money lost this year, and hence price out any new airlines for 2021 and 2022?

Just maybe the next 12 to 18 months period will be the most important in the airports history.

 

[jfy1999]

I certainly think that charges and fees have a lot to do with it, and when you look at the airlines that flew transatlantic services, BA couldn't make it work, AA tried twice and pulled out, US Airways had a short season before pulling out, Primera too, and even United eventually left, so why would any other airline remotely think they could make it work?

My worry about Birmingham, is once the pandemic is over, will the share holders/local councils etc. and even the airport's management themselves have to increase charges/fees/costs to try and recoup back the money lost this year, and hence price out any new airlines for 2021 and 2022?

Just maybe the next 12 to 18 months period will be the most important in the airports history.

Isn’t most airport revenue from sources other than airline charges? I have no doubt we’ll see parking, drop off and trolley charges increase in time but certain developments make me think the days of airports offering “sweeties” to airlines aren’t necessarily over, especially in the case of airports that have lost some of their biggest airline customers. Wizz are looking to fill the BA/Norwegian short haul void at LGW and Aer Lingus are reportedly looking to fill the TCX long haul void at Manchester. In the case of BHX, a lot of Flybe gaps still need filling and we’ve had several new airlines already jumping in.

Airports will be motivated to get passenger numbers and the parking/shopping revenue to something resembling normality as quickly as possible and if that requires new airlines or new bases due to incumbent airlines going bust or pulling out then a forward thinking management team should be going for it.