Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

I think the 4th daily at MAN is penciled in for 1 Oct/Nov. It might make sense for a similar upgague still BHX at the same time, although the change at MAN is apparently prompted by Oman Air.

 

[Brum X]

I think the 4th daily at MAN is penciled in for 1 Oct/Nov. It might make sense for a similar upgague still BHX at the same time, although the change at MAN is apparently prompted by Oman Air.

Well Emirates may be playing a similar thing at BHX as it is strongly rumoured that Shaheen Air will be flying to BHX this coming winter, taking on both PIA and Emirates.

 

[thunderchild]

Perhaps the evening service being upgraded to an A380 at BHX releases a 777 to launch a 4th daily at MAN?

 

[Dobbo]

Well Emirates may be playing a similar thing at BHX as it is strongly rumoured that Shaheen Air will be flying to BHX this coming winter, taking on both PIA and Emirates.

It would be the classic Emirates response to competition.

 

[Barry Beeth]

What I'm struggling to grasp is how a 4th daily (as mooted for MAN) fits in with the "waves" at DXB; what timings would such a flight have?
With the exception of LHR (which has 8 daily flights or something ridiculous), all of the major hubs (CDG, FRA, LGW(!), AMS) have 3 daily flights, quite deliberately. Better to upgrade to 3 x A380 first? Just wondering...

 

[jfy1999]

More capacity to Canada appears to be the main focus currently for BHX

Ive heard Westjet and Rouge are targets (maybe the switch to AC mainline up at Manchester is timely?) but I hope they're also trying to persuade Air Transat to add flights

 

[David_itl]

The 4th daily EK flight is mooted to be arriving sometime between 2pm and 2.30pm, leaving 4pm to 4.30pm. The expansion is mirroring what they did at LHR i.e. when EK29/30 was launched there, it was shadowng EK1/2. Currently I believe LHR is EK 6 daily with QF 2 daily with BA at 2 daily and VS daily.

Let's throw some capacity numbers around for current and rumoured EK expansion at BHX and MAN

Birmingham
2938 is 1 x 2-class A380 + 2 x 2-class 77W current ops
3122 is 1 x 2-class A380 + 1 x 3-class A380 + 1 x 2-class 77W
3314 is 2 x 2-class A380 + 1 x 2-class 77W ----> this is what I tend to think they will go to

Manchester
2988 is 1 x 3-class A380 + 1 x 2-class A380 + 1 x 3-class 77W current ops
3306 is 2 x 3-class A380 + 1 x 2-class A380
3498 is 1 x 3-class A380 + 2 x 2-class A380
3708 is 1 x 3-class A380 + 1 x 2-class A380 + 2 x 3-class 77W ----> this is what I think they will go to
3842 is 1 x 3-class A380 + 1 x 2-class A380 + 1 x 3-class 77W +1 x 2-class 77W

The difficulty is that we don't know what EK plans in terms of future fleet configurations as Sir Tim Clarke implied there may be fewer 1st class seats but an introduction of premium economy,

 

[Dobbo]

What I'm struggling to grasp is how a 4th daily (as mooted for MAN) fits in with the "waves" at DXB; what timings would such a flight have?
With the exception of LHR (which has 8 daily flights or something ridiculous), all of the major hubs (CDG, FRA, LGW(!), AMS) have 3 daily flights, quite deliberately. Better to upgrade to 3 x A380 first? Just wondering...

LGW is going 4x daily imminently.

 

[Dobbo]

Ive heard Westjet and Rouge are targets (maybe the switch to AC mainline up at Manchester is timely?) but I hope they're also trying to persuade Air Transat to add flights

Yes - my understanding is that AC are testing the water at MAN to see if they can release the AC rouge for other routes (AC Rouge are limited by the unions).

Perhaps would not dilute a new AC mainline service immediately but as a general point I feel Canada is underserved from the regions.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Well Emirates may be playing a similar thing at BHX as it is strongly rumoured that Shaheen Air will be flying to BHX this coming winter, taking on both PIA and Emirates.

As they did in 2005 when they added their 2nd daily service to see off Gulf Air, who then quickly retreated.

Sir Tim Clarke has said in the past that Emirates will eventually have all of their UK flights on A380's (NCL aside) so it's a case of when, rather than if.

 

[Dobbo]

Any reason why not newcastle? Market size or airfield capability?

 

[JENNYJET]

.......and 100+ A380's need to work in order to earn revenues and there is the selling point that Concorde had, the WOW! factor! , the chance to ride on the biggest airliner at a reasonable fare to a wonderful destination wherever that may be.

What would be helpful is if one of the A380 services continued across the Atlantic to say LAX or Washington but that is for Congress to allow.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Any reason why not newcastle? Market size or airfield capability?

The airfield cannot physically take an A380, the airport boss has also ruled it out for the future.

They'll probably get another 77W in time.

 

[User001]

I had heard on Friday that Finnair are to commence 1 daily morning BHX flights on 27th March 2017 with the E190, and by some pure coincidence, the E190 on the Morning Manchester flight has been switched to the A319 from that very same date, freeing up said E190.

Seems too much of a coincidence that this rumour came through, then MAN changed and just happens to be the one route that would have a similar block flying time to BHX.

Definately one to watch.

 

[Brum X]

That is great news, we have been waiting for this one for quite some time now. Will be good to have Helsinki on our departure boards.

 

[Ray Finkle]

This is one that seems to have dragged on for quite a while, it will be nice to finally have it confirmed.

We just need to hear from Jet2 now which I'm told is a 'done deal', I certainly hope so.

In other news apparently we won't see the return of Uzbekistan Airways until 2017 at the earliest.

 

[David_itl]

All the hallmarks of oneworld developing a policy of getting the non-LHR catchment area passengers to use the regional airports and connect on at other airports with no prospect of any decision of a new runway for South East England for some considerable time. They would need to try to free up capacity on existing LHR routes for natural South East England growth by displacing passengers to where they originated with MAN and BHX being the obvious beneficiaries given the catchment areas for both airports.

Couple of years ago, wasn't there nothing* oneworld at BHX? Now let's look at the possible situation for next year:

Vueling for European routes
American for point to point JFK travel and onward connections to those not covered by EI
Aer Lingus for transferring over DUB and using pre-clearance to lots of destinations
Qatar Airways for routes to Sub-continent/Australia over Doha
Finnair to Far East over Helsinki


* not including EI as they weren't involved in oneworld at the time

 

[Ray Finkle]

There's also Iberia Express, for connections on to Iberia's network across South America and Africa.

 

[David_itl]

Forgot about them as they've only got a limited frequency! They really need to go daily at both MAN and BHX as that would be more useful in gaining passengers to route via MAD to South America and Africa.

 

[Brum X]

This is one that seems to have dragged on for quite a while, it will be nice to finally have it confirmed.

We just need to hear from Jet2 now which I'm told is a 'done deal', I certainly hope so.

In other news apparently we won't see the return of Uzbekistan Airways until 2017 at the earliest.

Any news on Delta to ATL ??