Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

Good to hear - in the post-Brexit world closer links to the commonwealth should be encouraged.

Now for some SQ, MH, NZ, QF news(!) (only kidding...)

 

[User001]

We aren't leaving Europe, so, I wouldn't worry about it.

 

[Dobbo]

We aren't leaving Europe, so, I wouldn't worry about it.

Yes, but the new opportunities from this are far more likely to come from non-EU countries. Hopefully that will manifest its self in the new services from MAN.

 

[David_itl]

Looking at this Evening News report, i doubt we can expect any South American routes for a good few years.

"The north west currently exports goods and services worth an estimated £353m to Latin America and the Caribbean.
And all the indications are that this figure will increase in years to come. Mark Hughes, group chief executive of the Manchester Growth Company, said that the market is worthy of inspection for any company looking to export He said: “Government forecasts show the market increasing in value to £14.2bn over the next five years."

That latter figure is the total UK value. And if by chance we do gain a South American route, it is more than likely going to be to Rio:

"Brazil is frequently cited as one of the world’s fastest growing economies but total overseas trade with Britain fell by around 7% between 2014 and last year. The figures were down from £5.2bn to £4.88bn while here in the north west, trade fell from £274m in 2014 to £257m last time."

So almost 75% of our trade in the region is to Brazil with our proportion of the total trade being only around 5%. It tends to suggest that it's going to have to be business travellers continuing to route MAN- LIS/MAD/LHR- Rio de Janeiro until there's a significant build up on trade between South America and the North of England generally, and in particular Brazil and the North of England.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/business/exporting-firms-region-now-dancing-11558407

 

[Dobbo]

Probably not altogether surprising. South America has been struggling of late. I'm sure it remains on the radar, but for now I think we can expect growth in other regions.

 

[User001]

I've always thought a South America was a tough nut to crack, and one that will take a long time to make its way onto the MAN departure boards.

At best, we can only hope for a leisure based Rio route. I mean Thomas Cook too, not even Virgin et al.

 

[Dobbo]

Agreed. We are currently seeing a fairly significant phase of growth on Far East and North American routes, with the Middle Eastern carriers growing steadily as well.

The next phase will probably include the subcontinent and africa, but I suspect South america is some distance from realisation.

 

[User001]

If we get a South America route appears in the next 5 years, I would be very surprised. And like I say, Rio is the only runner. I don't think there is any demand to any other point really, the only way we would get any other South America route is if it was LHR overspill.

 

[Dobbo]

Indeed - the business links are not yet there.

If the next five years saw a consolidated network of frequent and non-seasonal flights to all parts of North America, China and India I would consider that significant progress.

If one or two surprise routes, like Rio, Tokyo, KL, Bsngkok appeared that would be great.

 

[User001]

The annual OAG report has highlighted that Manchester-Bangkok is the 29th largest underserved route in the world.

It had over 133,000 one stop journeys, and to think some long haul routes are started with demand for 54,000 one stop passengers! If only we could get an airline to serve the route.

 

[Dobbo]

Hi User

Do you have a link to that report?

I beleive that TG will come through at some stage. An alternate might be a Far East Asian airline (from say, Taiwan or Indonesia) making a one stop 5th freedom flight to MAN via BKK.

 

[User001]

I don't have the link but have screenshots

 

[Dobbo]

Can they be uploaded?

 

[User001]

I'm not 100% sure. I have tried to use upload sites but nothing seems to work.

Interestingly, the report, based on 2015, shows MAN-BKK is the 3rd largest unserved long haul route in the world, with only LAX-SGN and DAC-JFK above MAN-BKK.

 

[David_itl]

I'm not 100% sure. I have tried to use upload sites but nothing seems to work..

All the graphs/images I've put up, I've actually uploaded to my facebook with the settings at "only me" when posting it. Then I've just doubled clicked the image to get the URL to paste into a reply.

 

[User001]

The top 50 list in 2 images.

Feel free to use and share.

 

[User001]

It's also worth noting Manchester is the only non-LHR UK route to make the top 50.

 

[Dobbo]

It's also worth noting Manchester is the only non-LHR UK route to make the top 50.

That is an extraordinary statistic - it's no wonder that TG have been "on the verge of starting" for 20 odd years.

The two unserved routes above that would be ULH type routes, which makes the stat even more extraordinary.

I'd sound a note of caution. I suspect the vast majority of that "one stop" traffic from MAN-BKK is carried by Emirates or Etihad. They have been great for MAN, but I would be loath to see anything stunt their growth or send them into retreat (not that I think it's likely!)

 

[User001]

Some big routes news to come soon. Watch this space, it might not be in next few weeks, but, big news is coming.

 

[Dobbo]

Some big routes news to come soon. Watch this space, it might not be in next few weeks, but, big news is coming.

There is no way you can say that without giving some clues!!!!