Manchester: General Airport Discussions & Updates

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On the back of what I posted in mid-January, 3 year sponsorship deals with Glasgow and Edinburgh Prides have been announced.
 
Very disappointing news. This is the year that the late morning closure was due to be eliminated. Obviously, this decision reflects the lack of growth in aircraft movements anticipated for S18. Whilst Jet2, Ryanair and (on a smaller scale) BA Cityflyer have stepped up following the failure of Monarch Airlines, other carriers have not. EasyJet remains at 12 based ... we aren't even getting the 13th aircraft mentioned whilst Monarch was still around. Huge letdown from them. FlyBe is in network consolidation mode. Thomas Cook and Thomson are making only minor changes to capacity. Virgin frequencies look broadly similar but with some type-changes. Vueling and Norwegian couldn't be persuaded to reconsider their withdrawal from sunshine leisure routes at MAN. Visiting overseas carriers: slim pickings here too. Some cutbacks, some increases, no game-changers. And it looks like the return of Air Malta is the only "new" name of note. Though Air Arabia Maroc head into their first Summer season at MAN.

If we're to see growth at MAN during the S18 season we will be relying on increased load factors. Movements and capacity are looking flat at best. The only notable positive to draw is that the two main carriers in expansion mode - Ryanair and Jet2 - generally achieve very high load factors. Brace for turbulence ahead!
 
A reduction in Sunday hours, why?? I travel most Sunday evenings usually to BRU to catch a connecting flight and have frequently been delayed in the past due to long queues, not to mention missing the connecting flight!
 
Summer 2018 sees 22,915,590 seats at MAN up 1% on Summer 2017
Or 233,818 additional seats in total
Thomas Cook's increase being 233,475 seats

So still a positive year coming up !
Ian
 
So still a positive year coming up !
Ian

Apologies for the delayed reply (I've been away) but I can't let this remark pass.

The numbers you quote are taken from the ACL start of season report. Those numbers are actually published a couple of weeks before the season starts and they remain a moving target well beyond then. A listed 1% rise in capacity at this late stage must be interpreted as warning of a very challenging season ahead, certainly not an assurance of "a positive year coming up!"

That 1% additional capacity includes filings related to at least three speculative applications which I would place in the 'very low confidence' category, ie. it is probable that they won't happen. One of those is VLM who have already said as much. 103,565 seats are attributable to these three filings - that is most of our 1% margin gone already. Then there is Hainan Airlines: filed capacity appears to represent a daily schedule, yet only 4/7 is expected in reality. That is our 1% margin effectively wiped out already, regardless of inevitable further changes. Of course, surprises can be positive as well as negative, but if there are any major new service announcements still forthcoming for S18 season that would be a pleasant surprise indeed.

So it looks like MAN is going into S18 season with capacity virtually flat compared to last year. That means that a rise in throughput will depend on increased load-factors. We could actually see that, as the main carriers showing significant expansion (Ryanair, Jet2, Thomas Cook, Thomson) generally do deliver very high load-factors.

Nevertheless, we have no grounds for gung-ho optimism based on the numbers advised so far. Positive progress will be a slog based on present projections. If we get any geopolitical setbacks (trade wars, terrorist acts etc.) from this point all bets are off. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome.
 
Just to add to your point about slots/seats, do we know if Ryanairs new flights are only in the ACL report from when the services start, which I understood was mainly June? What made me wonder was that the Ryanair press release mentioned a 9% increase in seats, whereas the ACL report with an increase in seats of 525,000 represents a 16% rise.
 
Unless there are any external shocks it seems likely that traffic will rise. The points above are valid, but there are strong arguments that numbers will rise. The lack of direct replacements for MON flights will help load factors to these destinations in the remaining carriers as well as substitute destinations. Many airlines have spare capacity to fill eg EK EY QR PK Finally, many MAN operators can match capacity to demand. This means more seats may be offered than initially declared. LH TK SK AF LX TP and even BA are all adept at this.
 
Dual runway times effective 26th March:

Mon-Fri 0630-1030 & 1300-2000
Sat 0630-1030 & 1300-1600
Sun 1300-1700

Information courtesy of EGCC Insider on Twitter

OAN 36-2018 gives new summer dual runway hours:

Effective 09Jul18-28Oct18

Mon-Fri 0615-2000
Sat 0615-1600
Sun 0615-0930 & 1300-2000

Finally a full day of full dual ops - long overdue.
 
Good heavens. I counted 30 a/c parked remote in that picture. I wonder how many of those were flying anywhere. Mind you, there are a few a/c parked on stands as well.
 
Don`t forget quite a bit is taken off stand for a few hours between flights and some operate from remote stands
plus of course the summer season is only just starting and won`t really get going until end of April
 
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...ster-news/top-secret-spy-agency-gchq-14516029

Absolutely massive news this morning!
Nicked from under the nose of Cambridge apparently.

Amount of traffic between the US AND Heathrow enroute to Cheltenham is considerable so there must be scope for a few 1st class contracts here.

Cements Manchester'so position as the place to be outside London if you are a graduate.

I'm still amazed however that none of the major social media companies set up their back office here given Manchester has the largest campus in Europe.
 
There is an interesting article on Manchester Airport in today's edition of Blue Swan Daily

https://blueswandaily.com/airport-insight-manchester-airport/

Had a quick gander at this, and it is indeed interesting. Maybe off topic, but I noticed another article in said publication regarding the demolition of T1 and a group being set up to campaign for saving said edifice. Personally, I would get rid, and extend T2 right across to T3 making room for more piers etc and opening up the apron for better movement of aircraft.
 
A refurbished T1 could still function quite effectively as a no-frills operation for years to come. But that's not the issue. T1 is located too far south on the airport campus ... too close to the runways. And that really limits the scope for expansion of the apron and increasing the number of usable aircraft stands on the airport as a whole. There may be physical scope to expand behind T3 (to the north) by developing round the back, but we all know about the problems identified with that (not cost-effective). So we really need the T1 footprint set back well to the north if MAN is to expand its apron capacity sufficiently to cope with the decades ahead.
 

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For some weird reason, my days off work tend to involve being out of my flat by 5am and not getting back until 10pm. Back to work and the regular "fix" of 7.40am to 7.15pm hours
Heatwave Mk2 next week?
Some explosive weather build-ups currently in the North of England. What is it like where you are?
LBA: B737-300 G-GDFK empty down to Paris at 16:15 to operate the return LS268 back to Leeds 20:00 ETA where it will then operate the delayed LS265 to Malaga 20:40ETD
LBA: Albastar B737-800 EC-MUB positioning in tommorow afternoon from Gatwick 15:45 to operate a charter to Lourdes/Tarbes on Friday afternoon 14:00 AP7721 STC
I don't believe I am quite covering enough roles at work. Its now 4 on a bad day, 5 on a good day and there is scope for a 6th and 7th role. Still on minimum pay but had the biggest payrise in the company,

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