So still a positive year coming up !
Ian
Apologies for the delayed reply (I've been away) but I can't let this remark pass.
The numbers you quote are taken from the ACL start of season report. Those numbers are actually published a couple of weeks before the season starts and they remain a moving target well beyond then. A listed 1% rise in capacity at this late stage must be interpreted as warning of a very challenging season ahead, certainly not an assurance of "a positive year coming up!"
That 1% additional capacity includes filings related to at least three speculative applications which I would place in the 'very low confidence' category, ie. it is probable that they won't happen. One of those is VLM who have already said as much. 103,565 seats are attributable to these three filings - that is most of our 1% margin gone already. Then there is Hainan Airlines: filed capacity appears to represent a daily schedule, yet only 4/7 is expected in reality. That is our 1% margin effectively wiped out already, regardless of inevitable further changes. Of course, surprises can be positive as well as negative, but if there are any major new service announcements still forthcoming for S18 season that would be a pleasant surprise indeed.
So it looks like MAN is going into S18 season with capacity virtually flat compared to last year. That means that a rise in throughput will depend on increased load-factors. We could actually see that, as the main carriers showing significant expansion (Ryanair, Jet2, Thomas Cook, Thomson) generally do deliver very high load-factors.
Nevertheless, we have no grounds for gung-ho optimism based on the numbers advised so far. Positive progress will be a slog based on present projections. If we get any geopolitical setbacks (trade wars, terrorist acts etc.) from this point all bets are off. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome.