Flybe

[lbia]

I really hope flybe's LBA operation is not impacted but I have a feeling that they will keep MAN as their northern regional hub, some of flybe's LBA routes often have very low load factors so I hope the small fortune they charge is enough to keep then viable after the cuts.

I really wish flybe got their operational problems sorted and got their head into gear and decide what they are doing, I'd love them to base a couple of Embraer jets here and pick up the business leakage on routes such as BRU/MUC/FRA/CPH etc that are not served at all from LBA. They need to sort of their shocking reliability and stop all the cancellations that happen on a daily basis which might do them some favours with their customers. A 70-100 seat Jet operator is just what LBA needs!

 

[Bigman]

I would have thought that slimming down the MAN base would be the better option. There is massive competition on some of the routes they operate over there. Naff all competition at LBA. Belfast City is doing over 12,000 per month. I agree that Southampton seems to be the weak link with only half the number of passengers that they get on the Belfast. As someone said, I could see Eastern coming back on that route.

 

[User0001]

I would have thought that slimming down the MAN base would be the better option. There is massive competition on some of the routes they operate over there. Naff all competition at LBA

How have you come to this assertion?

Massive competition?
They actually have a monopoly on many routes including GLA/EDI/NWI/EXT/SOU/MXP/HAJ/WAT/NOC/IOM.

They have a hub operation which requires the volume of routes that they have. Not only do they feed their own hub, but they feed into the likes of Air France, Etihad and Thomas Cook, with codeshares and agreements in place with those airlines. Would they get that at LBA? The Thomas Cook deal was only signed last month!

Not only this, flybe's highest yielding route is ABZ-MAN, and the yield is better at MAN than LBA and MAN is flybe's biggest operation. Hardly the signs of a struggling operation that needs to be slimmed down.

So, can I ask, was this 'slim down MAN' comment based on any merit?

 

[lbaspotter]

I can see some of the smaller MAN routes been effected but I guess the majority will continue. Also it looks like the Thomas Cook/Flybe Hub deal has gone to pot, you've even admitted that yourself on another forum user001.
We can guess some off the 21 routes to be dropped will include the 7 Gatwick services. Just need to work out the other 14 routes? I myself think it will be shared out between the 4 main bases MAN, BHX. EXT and SOU by dropping some of the less frequent services that say either operate summer only or just 2/3 weekly.

Bigman all the Loganair routes will not be effectived as they pay flybe for the franchise, so the LBA - GLA route is safe for now.

 

[User0001]

Also it looks like the Thomas Cook/Flybe Hub deal has gone to pot, you've even admitted that yourself on another forum user001

That's not quite the full story there is it LBA spotter?

It was actually another user who suggested the hub wasn't happening, but my posts merely stated the hub idea doesn't seem that refined just yet and to quote, I said it was 'underwhelming'. Flights between flybe/Thomas cook are bookable, just in odd timings at the moment.

If you are going to call someone one a quote at least make sure you do it right, as I would rather not be misquoted as accused of saying something I did not.

Just need to work out the other 14 routes? I myself think it will be shared out between the 4 main bases MAN, BHX. EXT and SOU by dropping some of the less frequent services that say either operate summer only or just 2/3 weekly.

If you re-read the strategic review, it actually goes on to say new routes are likely at its 'core bases'. Given Manchester is a hub, I would therefore not be wide of the mark to assume MAN is a 'core base'.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

I would like to reassert what User001 has just said regarding Manchester. If one looks through their financial results presentations and restructuring plans, they talk about Manchester being their best option and Southampton being their next best option. Now they are pulling out of Gatwick, they view Southampton as an opportunity to pull passengers away from London (significant numbers live within the catchment areas of both Gatwick and Southampton). Their base at Manchester is absolutely solid and the passenger numbers on the vast majority of routes across the network are reasonable. Revenues have vastly improved over the last 12 months.

Their problem is costs. They have the highest cost per available kilometre (ASK) of any airline in the UK which is absolute madness and it is caused by having the wrong aircraft operating many routes, poor aircraft utilisation (5.3 hours a day compared to Easyjet's 9.4) and poor staff utilisation (lowest in the UK, half that of Easyjet).

They go on to say that Regional connectivity is a niche on which they do NOT have much competition in the UK. As such, they are committed to keeping the regions connected. I can't help but feel this gives the Southampton route a fighting chance, being a regional connection. Someone mentioned the Southampton route having half the numbers of the Belfast route. Firstly, there are 3 flights to SOU compared to 4 at BHD and, secondly, as has been discussed here before, the tea time flight to SOU is so unreliable that having half the passengers on SOU than BHD actually sounds reasonable.

To those who want Flybe to base at LBA - it's not going to happen. Flybe are talking about further streamlining of their bases. Clearly, this is not going to lead to based a/c at LBA. The airline has cut almost all of the non-profit making routes. What is there currently to suggest that routes such as Brussels, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Munich would be profitable for Flybe? Forgetting Frankfurt for a moment, 3 of those routes have been operated from LBA before with different airlines, both of which had a significant presence in LBA at the time. And they have now all gone. Flybe need to sort themselves out from the very bottom before they start expanding again. That will take at least 2 or 3 years. You never know, LBA might just have somewhere for them to park by then....

For what it's worth, I suspect Exeter and Birmingham would suffer the brunt of any route cuts having looked at the route profiles.

 

[lbaspotter]

Look I agree with you user001 that MAN will most likely benefit from new routes seen as its a flybe core base along with SOU, BHX, BFS and EXT. I never said it wouldn't!
But that does not change my mind that some of the less frequent MAN and other core base routes will face been dropped if there not making money.

We would all like to see LBA become a flybe base. Hell they even went as far as promising it back in 2004. They would be a perfect fit for some routes to places like CPH, BRU, CDG, BER and so on, but it's not going to happen now or anytime soon while the airline restructures it self out of the mess it's currently in utilising its existing core UK bases.

 

[User0001]

Look I agree with you user001 that MAN will most likely benefit from new routes seen as its a flybe core base along with SOU, BHX, BFS and EXT. I never said it wouldn't!
But that does not change my mind that some of the less frequent MAN and other core base routes will face been dropped if there not making money.

That's fine, we are all entitled to our opinions. However, my frustration was bourn on the back of:

a) The initial post by bigman suggesting MAN gets trimmed back, based on what seemed no research as to why MAN is the base it is.

b) Then the misusing a quote from myself, which was not my quote, was used in an argument to suggest why MAN could possibly not be doing well.

I think we can all agree, in a strategic review such as this, there are inevitably going to be losers. No one is suggesting a certain base will be ringfenced and face no cuts, but, in the initial post by bigman, to suggest a base be cut and moved with no basis or factual evidence to support it doesn't do any debate any good.

 

[Bigman]

Sorry for the obvious offence I have caused you user001. I should have worded my post better. I was thinking more in terms of the sun routes they do with the jets, where you have the likes of Thomsons, Thomas Cook, Jet2 etc in competition. Yes, they do have strong routes and I was not suggesting some sort of massive pull out, just a scaling back. Time will tell.

 

[User0001]

Flybe do very little in terms of sun routes at MAN.

The ones they do have been fully block booked by a tour operator so present no competition risk to flybe. These are Almeria, Calvi, Venice and Verona. They are not scheduled routes.

So again I struggle to what these highly competitive routes are that flybe should be worrying about?

 

[lbaspotter]

Looks like Loganair are doing ok for themselves compared to its franchise partner flybe. As they have just announced record profits this morning. So I'll say the Leeds - Glasgow route is safe for now!

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/bu ... a974478a88

Now for the bad bit of news. Its just been confirmed that flybe will be closing 6x UK bases including the following Aberdeen, Inverness, Newcastle, Isle of Man, Jersey & Guernsey . Meanwhile x52 jobs are to go at Belfast City x16 of those pilots, x49 in Birmingham, x37 in Glasgow, x12 in Manchester x17 in Southampton and more than x100 at Exeter.

 

[a300boy]

Information on other forums suggest our Belfast City flights pax numbers are up 40% since Jet 2 gave up the ghost and all the routes from Belfast will continue without cuts but sadly Flybe staff will be made redundant.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

Quite honestly, I am not surprised to see the bases mentioned being closed as all the routes served from these airports are to other Flybe bases. It makes perfect sense to simply flip the flights around. For example, if Glasgow - Manchester was served by a Glasgow based a/c, it will now be served by a Manchester based a/c.

As I predicted, Exeter and Birmingham have been hit hard, suggesting the majority of route losses will be here. I am somewhat more surprised to see Belfast suffer so much but it would appear the competition at Belfast International is too great. We seem to have a nice little niche at Belfast City - traditionally, LBA has flown to BHD rather than BFS and, indeed, they managed to remove the competition from Jet2 proving that one has to work hard to disrupt the established link (take note BA). As a result, I would be surprised if LBA-BHD will be affected.

As I suggested previously, the rest of the cuts appear to be down to better use of their existing crew. All in all, very few surprises and, hopefully, it will set them off down the road to recovery. My feelings are that LBA's schedule is pretty secure.

 

[Aviador]

Flybe has announced it is to end flights between Southampton and Leeds Bradford airport from the 19th January 2014

 

[lbaspotter]

Flybe has announced it is to end flights between Southampton and Leeds Bradford airport from the 19th January 2014

Yeap now confirmed on the flybe website that Leeds - Southampton route is one off 30 routes been dropped. For full details see flybe press release http://www.flybe.com/corporate/media/news/1312/04.htm

Hopefully Eastern Airways might be tempted to restart the route using a smaller Jetstream 41.

 

[Aviador]

I understand a sizeable number of Southampton passengers have been opting to use the BA Heathrow service over recent months because of the lack of reliability of the Flybe Southampton service. I'll be sad to see the Southampton service go but at least it might benefit the BA Heathrow route to some extent.

 

[lbia]

The route must be bleeding money for them to can it completely, they must not think chopping it down from 3x to 2x daily would do any good.

Now eastern have a crew base back at LBA, they must want to give it a go again?

 

[a300boy]

So we have gained 2 flights a week with SAS and lost around 20 flights a week with FlyBe ! I also note Aer Lingus Regional have announced a Shannon-Bristol route today and an increase frequency on Manchester operations. I rather hoped we might be next to see them operate to Cork, Shannon or Knock route.

 

[Bigman]

Will FlyBe still be operating the Summer Saturday Innsbruck next Summer. Seems to me that would be better operated by Tyrollean/Austrian with a F70 or F100.

 

[dmrodgers]

Will FlyBe still be operating the Summer Saturday Innsbruck next Summer. Seems to me that would be better operated by Tyrollean/Austrian with a F70 or F100.

The Inghams brochure suggests the flight will again be operated by Flybe with similar timings to Summer 2013.