Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Coathanger16]

Not sure if it is a factor, but are how are slots allocated to different airlines? Might it be that China Eastern has slots available at Shanghai whilst Air China doesn't? Equally, China Eastern could be swapping another route for ARN/EDI, whilst Air China doesn't want to ditch an existing route for Manchester. Whole range of factors that would affect which service starts first, so it's not really possible to say Manchester's been waiting longer therefore it should get that route first.

 

[ethanegcc]

China Eastern do have a hub at Shanghai, whereas Air China doesn't, but CA has the support of the government. I don't think China Eastern are swapping a flight as they are on expansion mode; launching IAH and looking at MXP/DUS from Shanghai.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Summer 2017 update

Movements S17 versus S16 start of season - plus 7.2%
Passenger seats - S17 versus S16 start of season - plus 9.9%

Major movements changes for peak week

easyJet - plus 60
Flybe - minus 10 (takes into account former Loganair franchise routes)
Delta Airlines - minus 12
Kuwait Airways - plus 14
Loganair - plus 124 (takes into account former Flybe routes)
Monarch Airlines - plus 25
Ryanair - plus 60
TAP Portugal - plus 14
Thomas Cook - plus 36
United Airlines - minus 10
Virgin Atlantic - plus 29

Summary of changes S17 compared with S16

Air Arabia Maroc - New Agadir twice per week from 1st October with A320.
Air Europa - New Palma charter series May-September on Sundays with B737-800
ASL Airlines France - New based B737-700 May-October operating 13 charters per week to Greece.
Astra Airlines - New Weekly HER charter series May-October on Tuesdays with A320.
bmi regional - New Weekly Cagliari charter series July-September on Saturdays with EMB145
BA Cityflyer - New services to Malaga, Alicante, Ibiza, Mykonos, London City, Nice and Palma, two weekend based EMB190's May-October.
Cathay Pacific - Increase Hong Kong from four to five per week and also change from B777-300 to A350-900 from 1st June.
Cobalt Air - Increase Larnaca from two to three per week with A320.
EasyJet - 12th based aircraft from July. New routes Dubrovnik, Granada, Krakow and Preveza.
Enter Air - New part based B737-800 May-October Tuesday-Friday operating four weekly charters to Greece.
Flybe - Reduce from nine to eight based aircraft, 4x E175 4x DH4. Toulouse is new, Kefallinia and Preveza are new weekly charters. Edinburgh and Exeter increase from 3 to 4 per day. Newquay now 2 per day. Amsterdam down from 5 to 4 per day. Hanover down from 2 to 1 per day. Rotterdam is cancelled.
Hainan Airlines - Increase Beijing from four to five per week during May/June.
Iraqi Airways - Weekly Sulaimaniyah/Baghdad on Saturdays.
Jet2.com - Reduce from 17 to 15 based aircraft but bigger aircraft. A330-300 replaces a B757 and the seven B737-300's become B737-800. New routes Almeria and Thessaloniki.
Kuwait Airways - Proposed daily Kuwait-Manchester-New York (JFK) with B777-300.
Loganair - From 1st September Loganair leave the Flybe franchise and increase Glasgow and Inverness from three to four per day. The new Inverness continues on to Stornoway. Norwich remains three per day.
Monarch Airlines - 9th based aircraft from May. New routes Stockholm, Dubrovnik, Oporto, Zagreb.
Oman Air - New daily Muscat from 1st May.
PIA Pakistan International - Increase Islamabad from six per week to daily with B777. New York (JFK) and Lahore remain two per week.
Royal Air Maroc - New three per week to Casablanca with B737 from 28th March.
Ryanair - Ninth based aircraft, new routes to Frankfurt and Naples plus continuations from Winter 2016 of Hamburg, Nuremburg, Sandefjord & Wroclaw. Discontinued routes are Bremen and Rygge.
Saudia - New twice per week Riyadh on Monday and Friday with B787 from July-September. Jeddah continues as five per week also with B787.
Singapore Airlines - Five per week Singapore & Houston with A350.
TAP Portugal - Increase Lisbon from daily to double daily with EMB190.
Thomas Cook - Increase from 12 to 14 based aircraft.
Thomson Airways - New routes Olbia and Santa Clara (Cuba) plus new for Summer Malta.
Turkish Airlines - Reduces Istanbul from three to two per day. The evening service is cancelled.
United Airlines - Washington cancelled.
Virgin Atlantic - Increases from three to five aircraft. Routes are Atlanta, Barbados, Boston, New York (JFK) - replaces Delta, Las Vegas, Orlando & San Francisco.

 

[ethanegcc]

Great to see some new routes not confirmed yet e.g. Air Arabia Maroc/Astra but also other increases such as Cobalt. Thanks for compiling the list @Scottie Dog

 

[Dobbo]

UA -10 in peak week is interesting - was IAD 5x weekly (I thought it was daily)?

 

[ethanegcc]

I also thought it was daily in peak season @Dobbo

 

[David_itl]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39366831

"All airlines must impose air passenger duty of £75 each way, which Abta says is one reason the arrival of Level will not trigger a price war. In addition, it will start with just two planes, but as Gerald Khoo, an airlines analyst at Liberum, notes: "Two aircraft will not be the sum total of IAG's ambitions."

Level plans to add more routes with more planes from summer 2018 and is "talking to other potential European airports where Level may operate". Khoo expects the UK to be on its wish list, with Manchester a possible first port of call."

 

[David_itl]

From Crankyflier
http://crankyflier.com/2017/03/27/a...ag-ceo-willie-walsh-on-level-his-new-airline/

"When you move away from London, you know the depth of the premium market gets shallower and shallower. And that’s why we think it works best outside the London market and the BA configured aircraft works extremely well in Gatwick. The richer premium content aircraft BA has at Heathrow works extremely well there. So, it really is “horses for courses” if you like. We can have the different brands focus more strongly on different customer segments, and we can allow them to operate side-by-side."

 

[ethanegcc]

Typical BA attitude, disparaging premium demand outside of London. It is shallower but Level isn't what we need - there is demand for Business Class on the PHL, JFK and ORD routes, otherwise AA would have cut it. Level *could* work for the JFK/ORD routes and possibly add OAK/LAX, but I feel Philadelphia does have demand for premium travel and I think that, after all these years, Level would be a half-hearted return to Manchester and Virgin would still be the go to carrier for Business Class travel - which should grow over the next couple of years out of the regions. It's the same way in which Thomas Cook aren't appealing to Business travellers and I would be overjoyed if TCX introduced a Condor-esque Business Class cabin on it's A330s, but that is a whole different story.

But, this is what BA have come up with - Level. A carrier which we are inevitably going to receive and which spells the end of AA at MAN and - I fear - the Philadelphia route. I'm starting to wish BA weren't provoked by VS/DL but they have been, whilst still not wanting to commit to a full BA operation, which will wipe-out AA and replace it with a low-cost carrier. Not a substantial replacement.

 

[Dobbo]

Will be interesting to see if there is a distinction between JFK, ORD and "the rest". Now is not a good time to enter TATL so quite what they plan is anyone's guess...

 

[David_itl]

I think what BA is driving at is that though there is a reasonable enough amount of premium demand outside the London area, most people would only be looking at economy prices. It's far better for them to not have the premium heavy 3 or 4 class versions and offer limited premium as then they won't bumping passengers into premium cabins that haven't paid the premium prices. If this is one way of cementing a more comprehensive oneworld long-haul network here with perhaps offering 4 or 5 destinations 2 or 3 times a week then I am completely in favour of their modus operandi.

 

[Dobbo]

I think what BA is driving at is that though there is a reasonable enough amount of premium demand outside the London area, most people would only be looking at economy prices. It's far better for them to not have the premium heavy 3 or 4 class versions and offer limited premium as then they won't bumping passengers into premium cabins that haven't paid the premium prices. If this is one way of cementing a more comprehensive oneworld long-haul network here with perhaps offering 4 or 5 destinations 2 or 3 times a week then I am completely in favour of their modus operandi.

I think that is fair. The B772 fleet are very premium heavy. Something akin to SQs A359 fleet would be a good comparator (perhaps with slightly less Business class).

 

[ethanegcc]

B788s would be perfect but there aren't enough ordered for MAN.

 

[Aceshigh]

There is a premier market in Manchester it just isn't quite as large as London.

By way of example the Tech Chat on social media re San Francisco is off the scale. That market I suspect would want and indeed would pay for eg enroute WiFi etc

 

[ethanegcc]

Apparently over 30 tech companies from the North joined for the inaugural flight. There surely has to be corporate pressure for a year-round route?

 

[Dobbo]

Corporate Pressure = money on the table. In the current climate, who knows how forthcoming that is.

 

[Scottie Dog]

For those interested, here is a link to the ACL Report for Manchester Start of Summer 2017.

https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/MAN-S17-Start-of-Season-Report.pdf

 

[Dobbo]

Saif Air

Cannot post the webpage, but limited information provided as follows:

• A new low-cost airline with exciting and unique services.
• Services from London Stansted/Manchester to Islamabad/Lahore
• From late 2017/early 2018.

I suspect this will largely replace Shaeen. Let's see what (if anything) PIA do to counter.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Initial impression:

Positives - The company proposes to piggy-back the AOC of an existing EU operator of 45 years standing in its initial phase. This company will be responsible for maintenance to EU standards, hopefully avoiding issues afflicting some independent carriers from the sub-continent. Thereafter, the plan is to apply for a UK AOC in their own right, a process which they envisage taking around nine months.

Negatives - The company reports that they have raised GBP5m in start-up capital from the founders but require a further GBP25m in "seed capital". They offer a crowd-funding option to this end. Now that worries me. GBP5m is pocket money in respect of an operation planning to operate two A330-300's on long-haul routes, and crowd-funding does not seem a convincing channel to raise sums in the region of GBP25m. Crowd-funding is best suited to small scale projects which allow a budding entrepreneur to open their first retail premises. Projects on the scale of a dental surgery, a hairdressers or a cafe. But a start-up long-haul airline? We all know the cautionary tales about investing in those ... if you want to be a millionaire start with a billion and set up an airline!

I say good luck to them. But I think they're going to need lots of it.

 

[ethanegcc]

On their Facebook profile, it says they are also eyeing Amritsar, Colombo and Sylhet as well as the two Pakistan destinations mentioned above.